Interesting Article

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sfbaytf
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Interesting Article

Post by sfbaytf »

Saw this today. Pretty interesting...

East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

The overwhelming assessment by Asian officials, diplomats and analysts is that the U.S. military simply cannot defeat China. It has been an assessment relayed to U.S. government officials over the past few months by countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. This comes as President Bush wraps up a visit to Asia, in which he sought to strengthen U.S. ties with key allies in the region.

Most Asian officials have expressed their views privately. Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara has gone public, warning that the United States would lose any war with China.

"In any case, if tension between the United States and China heightens, if each side pulls the trigger, though it may not be stretched to nuclear weapons, and the wider hostilities expand, I believe America cannot win as it has a civic society that must adhere to the value of respecting lives," Mr. Ishihara said in an address to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Mr. Ishihara said U.S. ground forces, with the exception of the Marines, are "extremely incompetent" and would be unable to stem a Chinese conventional attack. Indeed, he asserted that China would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against Asian and American cities—even at the risk of a massive U.S. retaliation.

The governor said the U.S. military could not counter a wave of millions of Chinese soldiers prepared to die in any onslaught against U.S. forces. After 2,000 casualties, he said, the U.S. military would be forced to withdraw.

"Therefore, we need to consider other means to counter China," he said. "The step we should be taking against China, I believe, is economic containment."

Officials acknowledge that Mr. Ishihara's views reflect the widespread skepticism of U.S. military capabilities in such countries as Australia, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. They said the U.S.-led war in Iraq has pointed to the American weakness in low-tech warfare.

"When we can't even control parts of Anbar, they get the message loud and clear," an official said, referring to the flashpoint province in western Iraq.

As a result, Asian allies of the United States are quietly preparing to bolster their militaries independent of Washington. So far, the Bush administration has been strongly opposed to an indigenous Japanese defense capability, fearing it would lead to the expulsion of the U.S. military presence from that country.

On Nov. 16, Mr. Bush met with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The two leaders discussed the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan and Tokyo's troop deployment in Iraq.

During his visit to Washington in early November, Mr. Ishihara met senior U.S. defense officials. They included talks with U.S. Defense Deputy Undersecretary for Asian and Pacific Affairs Richard Lawless to discuss the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan.

For his part, Mr. Ishihara does not see China as evolving into a stable democracy with free elections.

"I believe such predictions are totally wrong," Mr. Ishihara said.
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Feinder
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by Feinder »

I've never understood why folks think we would fight a land-war in China. Saying we'd lose a land-war of conventional forces vs. conventional forces goes in the "well duh" catagory. It doesn't matter whose Army you think is superious (another "well duh" question if you ask me). Superiour quality goes out the window when you consider their army has 500 -million- men (conscripts irrelevant). Nobody has thaat many bullets anyway (another exaggeration, but you get the point).

American strategy in Asia vs. China is simply one of containment.

They're not allowed invade Taiwan. Our Navy takes care of that. Sure, they have subs. But I'd bet USN knows exactly where each of those subs are at any given time.

They're not allowed to invade Vietnam. Our... Oh wait, nobody cares.

They're not allowed to invade South Korea. Between US, Japan, and South Korean naval, air, and ground assets, that's sorta got it covered: as in, it would be VERY messy, and why make the bother. Frankly, I don't think it's just a matter of saying, "We'd nuke 'em." Sure we could, but Japan and South Korea would scream, because THEY would be Chinese targets, and so nukes would stay in the holster. So again, I think it's back to simply saying that we'd make South Korea "not worth the price".


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IS2m
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by IS2m »

I think that the Japanese are over-reacting. In a conventional conflict, the Chinese army woulf be lucky to survive for 10 days against the US. As for the Chinese not hesitating to use nukes: such a move would and could only lead to the utter annihilation of the Chinese state. I don't think Mr. Ishahara knows what he is talking about.
rockmedic109
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by rockmedic109 »

When in a war with China, you do not kill their troops......That's just fewer mouths they have to feed.

Spray Roundup on their Rice fields!

Reduces the effectiveness of their troops, causes casulties, reduces the number of troops they can field as they send some back to quell the starving masses.
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testarossa
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by testarossa »

ORIGINAL: IS2m

I think that the Japanese are over-reacting. In a conventional conflict, the Chinese army woulf be lucky to survive for 10 days against the US. As for the Chinese not hesitating to use nukes: such a move would and could only lead to the utter annihilation of the Chinese state. I don't think Mr. Ishahara knows what he is talking about.

Mr. Ishahara is a right wing Japanese nationalist. They want real military, able to defend Japan with or without US.

I've read a lot of articles discussing not the question if China will attack Taiwan or not, but when and how.

Most likely China will attempt to bring Taiwan in by economical and political means. But they have accepted the constitutional law about uniting China using armed forces. Anyways, most likely they will attack in masse during 2008 Olympics with goal to occupy Taiwan in 2-3 days, maximum week. This practically will eliminate any threat of US intervention.

Unfortunately it’s not politically beneficial right now to discuss China question, having Iraq occupation and Iran nuclear program on agenda.
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Ron Saueracker
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by Ron Saueracker »

Wouldn't the US be totally screwed if the poop hit the merry-go-round? How much money is it in debt to or has invested in China? Walmart and the like are rearing their ugly bargain basement heads. And Taiwan is arguably screwed as we speak because of this. Dangle the debt and the support for Taiwan disintegrates.
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itsjustme
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by itsjustme »

I disagree on the debt issue. If things errupted into a shooting war, the US would simply cancel the debt. The debt is in the form of U.S. treasury bonds held by the chinese. First, that debt is not "callable" in the way that they could show up at the treasury and say "gimmee the money", the bonds have maturity dates and they are payable when they come due. Second, even if the Chinese waited until the maturity date, the U.S. could simply refuse to honor the bond. With the excuse of a shooting war, the economic impact of the U.S. not honoring treasury bonds, while a serious blow to world markets would not be the catastrophic economic problem it would be without the shooting war.

Just my $.02
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Feinder
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by Feinder »

That's an excellent point Ron. And it works both ways. My understanding is that Chinese investment in the United States (including Treasury Bonds), is at an all-time high, and growing. It would kind of screw the pooch for them too.

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madmickey
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by madmickey »

Hitler thought USA was a mongrel race that could not fight. What an idiot.
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testarossa
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by testarossa »

The whole idea behind "peaceful" unification is that Western Countries invested a lot of money into Chinese economy and depend a lot on Chinese cheap labour, so they would think twice before getting into the armed conflict with China.

Politics is an "art of compromise", and unfortunately i think Chinese are right, if they will be able to present the whole thing as too expensive for US and EU, nobody is going to lift a pinky to defend Taiwan. Especially if they present it as Hong-Kong type unification.
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marky
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by marky »

thats bull$%^

china would get its commie butt kicked and every true american knows it!



oo a star wars emoty[8D]

Big B
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by Big B »

I believe Ron S. was dead on accurate.

China 'Owns' the purse strings to the US Govt's deficit spending, and we have no one to blame but ourselves....move all our industry to China for cheap labor....WE built them and the chickens WILL come home to roost....sorry about all you guys out of work or working for Walmart instead of GM. (you get my drift).

China WILL take Taiwan and it's only a matter of time - and the same goes for Japan 're-structureing' it's own defense... done deal, matter of time.

No wishful thinking from Big B on this one.
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testarossa
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by testarossa »

ORIGINAL: madmickey

Hitler thought USA was a mongrel race that could not fight. What an idiot.

Especially considering that in US 10% of population were of German origin.
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Tom Hunter
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by Tom Hunter »

The thing that makes this interesting is not the validity (or lack thereof) of Ishihara's statements, it is the question; why is Ishihara saying this?

He is a man with his own agenda, and little military expertise. He is really, really good at manipulating the media and other people with inflamitory statements.

Maybe he want's Japan to build an army that can kick China's ass, like in the "good old days" ?[X(]

Maybe he wants nuclear weapons for Japan.

Maybe he wants to divert the forum away from discussions of the brilliant strategy that I am going to use to take down Mogami. Did you guys know that Mog and Ishi are part of a cabal out to prove that Japan really won WWII by using simulations to prove it? [:D]

The lunacy games are you last line of defense. If Japan wins you will all be forced to buy their cars and electronics, and sushi restraunts will spring up all over the place.
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marky
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by marky »

ORIGINAL: Big B

I believe Ron S. was dead on accurate.

China 'Owns' the purse strings to the US Govt's deficit spending, and we have no one to blame but ourselves....move all our industry to China for cheap labor....WE built them and the chickens WILL come home to roost....sorry about all you guys out of work or working for Walmart instead of GM. (you get my drift).

China WILL take Taiwan and it's only a matter of time - and the same goes for Japan 're-structureing' it's own defense... done deal, matter of time.

No wishful thinking from Big B on this one.


no they wont

china knows the west and the USA in particular WILL back taiwan


and china, despite wat sum generals say, does NOT have the resources, much less the BALLS to take US on

period[;)]
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testarossa
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by testarossa »

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter
If Japan wins you will all be forced to buy their cars and electronics, and sushi restraunts will spring up all over the place.

Let's see. I drive Suburu, all electronics in my house Japanese (some made in China though). I eat sushi 3-4 times per week. My wife makes sushi at home, and i love miso soup and tofu.

i gues they already won.
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dtravel
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by dtravel »

ORIGINAL: Feinder

That's an excellent point Ron. And it works both ways. My understanding is that Chinese investment in the United States (including Treasury Bonds), is at an all-time high, and growing. It would kind of screw the pooch for them too.

-F-

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Big B
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by Big B »

ORIGINAL: marky
ORIGINAL: Big B

I believe Ron S. was dead on accurate.

China 'Owns' the purse strings to the US Govt's deficit spending, and we have no one to blame but ourselves....move all our industry to China for cheap labor....WE built them and the chickens WILL come home to roost....sorry about all you guys out of work or working for Walmart instead of GM. (you get my drift).

China WILL take Taiwan and it's only a matter of time - and the same goes for Japan 're-structureing' it's own defense... done deal, matter of time.

No wishful thinking from Big B on this one.


no they wont

china knows the west and the USA in particular WILL back taiwan


and china, despite wat sum generals say, does NOT have the resources, much less the BALLS to take US on

period[;)]

Uh huh, give it another ten years and we'll see...

B
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marky
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by marky »

[8|]

its not gonna happen buddy

if it does well kik their commie asses into the ground

HOOAH!
SemperAugustus
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RE: Interesting Article

Post by SemperAugustus »

Ishihara is xenophobe and he says all kind of stupid things. He was recently sued by the union of French teachers for claiming that you can't count in French. He also claimed to quote that "Old women are the worst evil and malignant being that the civilization have produced".

The Chinese ownership of US Treasury bonds is just a way for the Chinese ensure employment within China. The US borrows money in its own currency so it isn't a big problem, the US can either devalue the dollar or refuse to honour the debt (like Argentina just did).

There is no chance that China can win a war with the US:
1. They can barely feed themselves
2. They don't have enough resources to fuel their own industry
3. They don't have any ability to project power (no significant navy, no useful foreign bases)
4. They don't have any real allies (excepting Burma, Iran, Zimbabwe and North Korea)

The US just needs to blockade the Chinese ports if it comes to that, their only outlets then become Russia, Kazakhstan, North Korea, Pakistan and Burma. I think the other bordering countries are pretty hostile to the Chinese. There is no infrastructure to handle a blockade in China if it comes to it.
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