Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

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apbarog
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Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by apbarog »

In my game against OPilot, I've been tracking my submarine activities, specifically my torpedo hits and torpedo duds. We're in October 1942. In the past week, I got a string of 3 non-dud torpedo hits in a row. I commented that the odds of this happening in 1942 are 1 in a 1000.

OPilot said that he had heard a theory, from either a previous opponent or someone on the forum, that the first reduction in dud torpedo percentage actually occurs in October 1942, not January 1943 as the manual states on page 130.

My game statistics show that prior to October 1942, I had 51 dud torpedo hits out of 58 hits for the applicable US torpedoes. That's a 87.9% dud percentage, which is close to the 90% percentage that I believe is applicable early in the war.

This month, October 1942, however, I've had 9 dud hits out of 15 torpedo hits, which is a 60% dud percentage.

This is too small of a sample size to be definitive, but it shows a rate significantly lower than 90%. OPilot's theory may be correct.

I'd be interested in hearing about other observations.
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dasboot1960
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by dasboot1960 »

As IJ, I wonder at how effective the US fleet subs have been from the very start. I have not tracked 'launches vs hits', but damn! tanker losses hurt. Your patch looks familiar. Perhaps a stint I did as an 'T4'in Riyadh back in '81. May all your torps be buggy.
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by Buckrock »

As the Allies in stock, I've never seen a noticeable improvement until '43 comes around, particularly late '43. Prior to that, there's a few good days and many, many frustrating days.

The starting dud rate for the Mark 14 in stock is 80.
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: Buckrock

As the Allies in stock, I've never seen a noticeable improvement until '43 comes around, particularly late '43. Prior to that, there's a few good days and many, many frustrating days.

The starting dud rate for the Mark 14 in stock is 80.
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My experience too.

EDIT: BTW, the dud rate for other kinds of US torps like DD and aerial torps seems to be 50%, or to put it another way, 100% dud on Aircraft Carriers and Battleships and Cruisers and 100% success against xAKLs and PBs and SCs! [8|]
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Rusty1961
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by Rusty1961 »

ORIGINAL: apbarog

In my game against OPilot, I've been tracking my submarine activities, specifically my torpedo hits and torpedo duds. We're in October 1942. In the past week, I got a string of 3 non-dud torpedo hits in a row. I commented that the odds of this happening in 1942 are 1 in a 1000.

OPilot said that he had heard a theory, from either a previous opponent or someone on the forum, that the first reduction in dud torpedo percentage actually occurs in October 1942, not January 1943 as the manual states on page 130.

My game statistics show that prior to October 1942, I had 51 dud torpedo hits out of 58 hits for the applicable US torpedoes. That's a 87.9% dud percentage, which is close to the 90% percentage that I believe is applicable early in the war.

This month, October 1942, however, I've had 9 dud hits out of 15 torpedo hits, which is a 64.2% dud percentage.

This is too small of a sample size to be definitive, but it shows a rate significantly lower than 90%. OPilot's theory may be correct.

I'd be interested in hearing about other observations.


On your 3 hit spread...assuming it was a 4 torpedo spread, the percent of 4 out of 3 exploding, assuming all hit, is 2.6%.

Was it a 6 torpedo spread? Or 4?
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apbarog
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by apbarog »

The three consecutive non-dud hits were from two separate encounters. The first fired two torpedoes. The first missed, the second hit and was not a dud. The separate encounter, two days later, had two torpedoes fired and neither were duds.

I've had the rare streaks of luck before. I had four non-dud hits out of six fired on a Japanese carrier in early '43, sinking it outright. I'm not saying that the manual is wrong. Just that there is a theory being discussed that the change in dud percentage for January '43 may occur in October '42 instead.

By the way, since my original post, I've had two more dud hits, raising the October '42 count to 11 duds out of 17, for a percentage of 64.7%.
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geofflambert
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by geofflambert »

When you said non-dud hits that gives the impression that they weren't duds. Apparently you meant they were duds.

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apbarog
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by apbarog »

Thanks, I corrected it.
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by Rusty1961 »

ORIGINAL: apbarog

The three consecutive non-dud hits were from two separate encounters. The first fired two torpedoes. The first missed, the second hit and was not a dud. The separate encounter, two days later, had two torpedoes fired and neither were duds.

I've had the rare streaks of luck before. I had four non-dud hits out of six fired on a Japanese carrier in early '43, sinking it outright. I'm not saying that the manual is wrong. Just that there is a theory being discussed that the change in dud percentage for January '43 may occur in October '42 instead.

By the way, since my original post, I've had two more dud hits, raising the October '42 count to 11 duds out of 17, for a percentage of 64.7%.


Best to look at them as two separate events.

Two fired with two hits is 4%. Small, but not improbable.

Two fired with 1 hit is 32%.

Not really fair to say,"I'm going to examine just these two consecutive events". Revision to the mean would necessitate we look at ALL your torpedo attacks in this '42 period.

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apbarog
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by apbarog »

My point was only that the last 3 torpedo hits were not duds, and that this is unusual in 1942.

The other statistics from my game are that from the beginning of the war to the end of September 1942, there were 51 duds out of 58 hits, which is 87.9%.

In October 1942 there were 12 duds out of 18 hits, which is 66.7%.

I list these stats because there was an ongoing theory about when the dud rate starts to go down. These stats neither prove or disprove that theory, but it is interesting to discuss. With more game observations, we can learn more.
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by Rusty1961 »

ORIGINAL: apbarog

My point was only that the last 3 torpedo hits were not duds, and that this is unusual in 1942.

The other statistics from my game are that from the beginning of the war to the end of September 1942, there were 51 duds out of 58 hits, which is 87.9%.

In October 1942 there were 12 duds out of 18 hits, which is 66.7%.

I list these stats because there was an ongoing theory about when the dud rate starts to go down. These stats neither prove or disprove that theory, but it is interesting to discuss. With more game observations, we can learn more.

Yes, that is unusual, but so was the fact you were running a dud-rate of 87.9% for most of 1942.

If we combined your October figures into the mix you're now at 19 non-duds divided by 76 total hits: 25%.

So, I suspect that the remainder of '42 will see your duds increase so that when '42 is done you're around the 20% rate.
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Alfred
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by Alfred »

1.  There is no validity to OPilot's theory.
 
2.  The torpedo dud rate is not a percentage chance.
 
3.  The dud rates are hard wired to change as per the manual.  It has been so since the days of classical WITP.
 
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rustysi
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by rustysi »

Your experience is just luck, based on the die rolls of the game.

FYI, the manual states clearly that the first reduction to the US torp dud rate is in Jan. '43. The second and final occurs in Oct. '43.
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RE: Torpedo Dud Percentage - October 1942

Post by m10bob »

I recommend SILENT VICTORY by Clay Blair Jr for details and stats, if this and the entire submarine service in the WITP AE game interests you .
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