Notes from a Small Island

[Mike Solli]

Saipan is just out of range. That sucks!

[zuluhour]

As far as the CBI map, You could throw a lot, and I mean lots, of recon over Rahaeng and the base to the southeast. This
may influence him to abandon his front line trace. Whats coming down the road NNE of Chang Mai? If it's big enough
I'd make sure he sees it as soon as you put recon up. It looks like he is already withdrawing in that direction.

[Canoerebel]

3/9/45 to 3/11/45

NoPac: Three turns mostly of maneuver, as the Allies are now in position to invade Kunashiri and, even more importantly, to retrieve an army from an exposed, advanced base (Kushiro). With both sides in proximity in a big way, fireworks may happen...or not.

CenPac: No sign of KB in the Truk vicinity, but I'm still deploying subs and ships to feel things out. I would like to invade the base but I don't want to take any undue risks - it's not worth it.

SEAC: The Japanese have abandoned the old MLR. Erik is definitely moving to reinforce the Malay peninsula. Here, like at Truk, I'm trying to avoid taking chances right now, because the time will later come in which the Allies can move in strength, if I haven't frittered away forces in the meantime.

[Canoerebel]

The next three turns are key. If I successfully withdraw my army from Kushiro, I'll be able to timely address the remaining Kuriles while continuing prep, planning, and logistics for The Next Next Big Thing.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

As far as the CBI map, You could throw a lot, and I mean lots, of recon over Rahaeng and the base to the southeast. This
may influence him to abandon his front line trace. Whats coming down the road NNE of Chang Mai? If it's big enough
I'd make sure he sees it as soon as you put recon up. It looks like he is already withdrawing in that direction.

He knows I have nothing in the interior. That's only an engineer unit coming down from Chang Mai.

[jwolf]

The Next Next Big Thing.

You have to admit your operational names were more imaginative in the AAR against John III. [:D]

[Canoerebel]

Joseph used up all the creativity in this game via his carrier names. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

I'm still hunting and pecking for a new match. I'm looking for an experienced player, well-known to the forum, like John III, Miller and Obvert, my most recent opponents. Good men like those are highly sought after, so it may take some time to find an opening. I'm open to Stock or to Mod and to one- or two-day turns. I'd prefer an opponent who likes to play one turn or two turns a day, on average.

[Canoerebel]

3/12/45

NoPac: Successful D-Day at Kunashiri, and a vast Allied transport fleet arrives at Kushiro, ready to withdraw an army that's prepping for the next big offensive.

Tomorrow could be a very bloody day, if Erik decides it's time to take a crack at Death Star. He has massive airfields and plenty of aircraft and kamikazes in proximity. I think the odds are about 50/50 of such an attack.

I'm prepared to suffer meaningful losses if the Japanese air force suffers a massive setback. That's the most likely result of such an attack, I think. But when dice are involved, wonkiness may ensue.

[palioboy2]

Have you ever had an opponent launch the sort of all in air attack you fear? Was it against a DS as big as your current one and what was the outcome?

I don't mean any of this as a slight, just I've seen you rank the odds of this happen quiet high many times in the two AARs I have read but have no recollection of it ever happening.

Obviously it must be protected against, but from the way you describe Erik he doesn't seem like the type to impale his air force on DS when he knows how important it is to the strategic air war.

I just can't see him doing it unless you made some major blunder.

[Bearcat2]

Good luck on taking Truk; that Naval fort has wrecked a lot of my ships and if he has supply, plus a brigade sized unit in defense, it is a very tough nut to crack.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

Have you ever had an opponent launch the sort of all in air attack you fear? Was it against a DS as big as your current one and what was the outcome?

I don't mean any of this as a slight, just I've seen you rank the odds of this happen quiet high many times in the two AARs I have read but have no recollection of it ever happening.

Obviously it must be protected against, but from the way you describe Erik he doesn't seem like the type to impale his air force on DS when he knows how important it is to the strategic air war.

I just can't see him doing it unless you made some major blunder.

In my games with John III and Erik, at least twice I've seen modest-sized strikes make it through Death Star CAP and land hits by bombs/torps and/or kamikazes. In other games, I've seen all-out strikes do proportionately much more.

My best guess is that an all-out strike from Erik's bases - say more than 1000 aircraft - might sink five to ten carriers (hopefully, mostly CVEs) at a massive loss to Erik's aircraft. But that's just the "bell" of the bell-shaped curve, I think. Extremes lie at either end, and one of those ends is frightening.

I can afford to lose some carriers if Erik guts his air force in the process, which is why I have Death Star positioned about four hexes from Ominato, Hachinohe, Hakodate, Sapporo, Muroran, Bihoro, etc.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Bearcat2

Good luck on taking Truk; that Naval fort has wrecked a lot of my ships and if he has supply, plus a brigade sized unit in defense, it is a very tough nut to crack.

I scrubbed Truk last night. Erik is reinforcing by air, bringing in a Mixed Brigade. I think he already had the heavy weapons there, having previously removed the combat squads via air transport. That's a tricky move, but I'd been watching for it.

My transports are moving to Ponape, where they'll unload the Truk prepped troops. Then the transports will return to the Solomons to pick up the troops for a different target - one that dovetails more neatly with The Next Next Big Thing.

[Canoerebel]

3/13/45

NoPac: Erik doesn't order an attack versus Death Star. As I awaited the turn, looking at the map and thinking over things, I increasingly felt like he would. DS will remain in place tomorrow, providing cover for the armada picking up an army, so I'll hold my breath again.

[mind_messing]

Scrubbing Truk is the right call. You can already effectively suppress it from Ponape, so it's no longer a dangerous airbase.

If you're worried about a lack of search at the Marianas and beyond, you should move on Woleai and Satawal for their potential for floatplane bases.

I think your strategic direction is a bit off here, however. I'm not sure what Truk would get you - you'd be better served smashing a path through Wake-Marcus-Bonin Islands. That lets you ship stuff directly from Hawaii, and the Bonin's give you a base to threaten the Home Island shipping lanes and a second vector of advance against the Home Islands.

Food for thought!

[Canoerebel]

The plan to interdict the Home Island shipping lanes has been in place and prep for months. That's "The Next Next Big Thing."

Out on the periphery are certain bases worth alot of points. Some of those bases seem lightly garrisoned, if recon and SigInt are to be believed = low-hanging fruit. I'll take them with minimal commitment, if I can, but I don't want to get bogged down or lose more than an objective is worth.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The plan to interdict the Home Island shipping lanes has been in place and prep for months. That's "The Next Next Big Thing."

Out on the periphery are certain bases worth alot of points. Some of those bases seem lightly garrisoned, if recon and SigInt are to be believed = low-hanging fruit. I'll take them with minimal commitment, if I can, but I don't want to get bogged down or lose more than an objective is worth.

I think Truk is definitely not in that category, even with a token garrison. Ask Bullwinkle about the fun he had trying to take Truk from a staunch defence.

[jwolf]

I don't think Truk is ever low hanging fruit. But I admit some other bases probably are.

[Canoerebel]

I've never assaulted Truk before, but I was willing to give it a try if the garrison was 6k, light on combat squads and low on supply. The purpose of bombing the base for the past four or five turns, along with sending in a YMS and a small bombardment TF, was to see if there was supply and to see whether Erik reinforced (he did) or had KB in the area (I still don't know). What I saw persuaded me to scrub the mission. I'm weighing whether to keep the troops in the area, perhaps prepping for some of the Marianas, or whether to employ them in NoPac, for reasons set forth three or four turns back.

[Lokasenna]

Why are you even bothering with interdicting the shipping lanes? What good is that going to do (with the shipping lanes in particular)?

It's 1945. The shipping lanes don't matter anymore. What does matter is what pressure you are able to apply, and where. Maybe additional vectors coincide with the shipping lanes, but they shouldn't be placed because of the shipping lanes. If you were taking Truk to then take the Marianas, with its boatloads of base VPs, then that's reasoning I can get behind. Taking Truk to enable getting into the shipping lanes in 1945 doesn't make sense. I saw that you scrapped Truk, but decided to use that as an illustrative example anyway.

Also, Ponape has a dedicated naval fortress as well. Personally, I don't see why you wouldn't go for Marcus and then the Bonins, which would enable you to cut the body off at the neck (Bonins - Okinawa/Ryukyus) as opposed to having to cut across the broad shoulders of the equatorial Pacific (Philippines and all targets leading up to them).

It's 1945.