Notes from a Small Island

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2/15/45

Air Losses: Brutal air losses due to the ruinous 1EB missions over the contested hex. The points Erik harvested are real and meaningful, but the underlying numbers provide information critical to the air/ground battle for this hex.

The battle for this hex will be determined by which side runs out of air-worthy fighters first and by how long I can mount large bombing raids.

Today, the Japanese lost 116 fighters, the Allies 91 (and a healthy percentage of those were flying escort missions for the 1EB, which is disadvantageous).

Because Japanese fighters got tuckered out picking off the small guys, I lost one B-24J and no Superforts today (and next to none the preceding two days).

Erik's fighters have trouble competing during LRCAP missions. I think, but I'm not sure, that fatigue is or soon will be a major issue for his fighters.

Allied fighters and 4EB are in good shape to continue the fighting for days to come. The one thing I can do better is try to employ more sweeps and less 1EB sacrifices.

How have your pilots been faring in the recent encounters? WIA, KIA, MIA/recoveries... Are your replacements seasoned or green?

[Canoerebel]

The recent big air clashes have been over contested hexes in which both sides have large armies. Consequently, pilot losses have been manageable. I would assume ditto for Erik.

Fighter pilot reserves are the only area of concern for me. At this moment and at this pace of operations, the reserves are adequate to handle this key battle. Reserve Navy fighter pilots are thinnest, but the Corsairs are performing well in their role taking on LRCAP over the contested hex. Marine and Army pilot reserves are higher.

[Capt. Harlock]

There are opportunities like that, and I've considered them. This turn Erik had more than 1500 fighters based on Hokkaido (!), leaving only about 300 over Tokyo and undoubtedly reduced numbers at other key bases.

To this point, I've deemed it more important to hit his vulnerable army and to take on his fighters in the best environment I'm likely to encounter. If the missions weren't succeeding or were taking unacceptable losses, I'd divert to something else.

Have to agree with that. (Excellent and very enjoyable AAR, by the way.) Better to sweep his fighters on LRCAP than have to fight through them over their own bases. I see one odd thing with Kushiro D+7 results, however: how did so many Mustangs get downed? Were they escorting 1EB's?

One thing about the Wildcat FM-2's: they are still capable of taking down Japanese bombers. If Erik chooses to escort with first-string fighters, the Wildcat losses might be worth his diversion from the critical combat area.

[Canoerebel]

Yup, the Mustangs were serving as escorts, which is not close to optimal.

It's okay to have good escorts for 4EB when you're sure they'll go in after the sweeps. That's the system I had working. But when I supplemented my attack with 1EB, I didn't take into account the fact that those missions might take place before or amidst the sweeps, as happened.

That's lesson 752,618 in the AE School of Hard Knocks, where I've been enrolled for 8+ years.

[RangerJoe]

If it's truly all-hands over Kushiro does that mean there are any momentarily soft targets for strategic bombing? Maybe some aircraft plants or a raid on Tokyo..

There are opportunities like that, and I've considered them. This turn Erik had more than 1500 fighters based on Hokkaido (!), leaving only about 300 over Tokyo and undoubtedly reduced numbers at other key bases.

To this point, I've deemed it more important to hit his vulnerable army and to take on his fighters in the best environment I'm likely to encounter. If the missions weren't succeeding or were taking unacceptable losses, I'd divert to something else.

Once Hokkaido is taken or enough of it to provide enough railroad connected airbases, Dan can have more feasible targets on Honshu and stretch the defending antiaircraft guns and defending fighters even thinner. Pop the bombers in, bomb, and then send the flyable ones out while the other ones rail to another base - and possibly load onto ships. Then Eric will have to guess which base(s) the damaged aircraft are heading to. This is while the Allied Navies will be free to pursue other opportunities, hopefully to cause significant damage themselves and/or spread the aerial defenses even thinner.

Very sneaky on the ground around Kushiro but I won't comment further, for now.

[Canoerebel]

A new turn just arrived from Erik, but I'm concerned about him. Over the past three months, turn-around time for turns has basically doubled. Over the past couple of weeks its tripled. We've gone from always 1-2 turns per day to 1 every three days or so. More worrisome is that he sent a message Sunday to the effect that he'd been busy but that things would return to "normal" on Monday. Then I heard nothing from him until today. When the turn came, I figured he's add a message: "Oops, been busy. Sorry for the lag time." But no message at all.

I won't ask him about it. I don't want to breathe down his neck. But I think his enthusiasm is waning.

[Canoerebel]

2/16/45

Kushiro D+8: As a new turn unfolds, the battles continue to rage here and in the inland contested hex. As the turn begins, I'm most interested in seeing how many squads the Japanese can bleed here, during a non-attack turn for the Allies, and whether the Allied air force can continue to score well over the contested hex. I'm about to learn that it was an darned ugly day for Erik.

[Canoerebel]

2/16/45

Hakodate: Small RN DD force on a raiding mission. The primary objectives are to check for mines and to "surprise" any large force (like carriers) that might transit the straits here. This is the second or third turn in which small Allied combat TFs have done this.

[Canoerebel]

2/16/45

Kushiro D+8: A modest bombardment that hopefully keeps the enemy troops disrupted and dissuades Erik from basing aircraft here.

A similar TF was ordered to bombard Bihoro but didn't make it today, for reasons I don't yet know.

[Canoerebel]

2/16/45

Kushiro D+8: Another fast transport landing designed to trigger enemy arty bombardment.

Today's mission will be particularly successful. Triggering the self-destructive bombardments has been perhaps the most effective Allied strategy in taking these heavily garrisoned islands and bases - on average, markedly more effective than ship bombardments. Erik hasn't taken concerted action to stop them, but his most reliable method would be to impose a naval blockade, and he's woefully short on good ships.

[Canoerebel]

2/15/45

Kushiro D+8: Allied sweeps are numerous and particularly effective today. Even the Hellcats score well. So many sweeps come in that all enemy aircraft are eliminated or retire, leaving the hex open to Allied 2EB and 4EB raids (no 1EB were scheduled today).

[Canoerebel]

2/16/45

Kushiro D+8: There are 101 Resource points left. A modest number of strikes by 1EB and 2EB score a goodly number of hits.

[Canoerebel]

2/16/45

Kushiro: Allied fighters having swept clean the sky over the contested hex, the 4EB come in unopposed. These are the two largest of a long series of strikes resulting in extensive damage to the Japanese army here.

Erik is now caught in a very difficult position. His troops are probably only making six or eight miles a day in retiring from the hex - probably about seven turns to clear, and perhaps as many as 12. This is the third turn of retirement. He has to keep LRCAP over the hex, but his fighters are paying a heavy price. And no matter what he does, his army gets battered turn after turn.

I've been fortunate that weather has allowed missions every day thus far. Erik is praying for rain.

[Canoerebel]

2/16/45

Kushiro D+8: This was a "rest day" for most of the Allied army at Kushiro, yet the Japanese auto-bombardment and a limited Allied attack tore apart the defenders, resulting in (apparently) 33% casualties. The base should fall next attack, which could be tomorrow (if my ground units have recovered enough) or the day after.

In the contested inland hex, Erik's army didn't attack, even though his raw AV outnumbers mine 5:1. The air attacks have bludgeoned his units. I think all he wants to do is evacuate the hex and limit the damage, as best he can. But he's gotten himself mired in a tar pit here.

[Canoerebel]

2/16/45

Kushiro D+8: Oops, I missed the screen capture of the Allied bombardment here, but it showed one enemy division at 0, one (7th) at around 20, and the third in the low triple digits. Erik has accumulated a tremendous number of disabled squads now. It shouldn't be long until the bombs convert disabled squads into destroyed ones. If that happens - and only weather will prevent it, I think - it's going to be ugly.

[Canoerebel]

2/16/45

Air Losses: A good day for the Allies, but by no means a "turkey shoot." The Japanese lost 4x fighters, which is promising (about 112 to about 25). But Erik had a lot of second generation fighters on LRCAP duty, and it seems like a lot of them wore out rather than getting shot down.

Allied losses were modest. I can keep this up as long as his army is in the contested hex.

I lost just one Superfort today. B-29 losses have been remarkably light during this campaign, which is terrific. However, they've been flying for about five straight days. I've been rotating them, but today pressed nearly all in service to apply maximum damage to the enemy ground forces, which I thought might have enough oomph to attack, evict my small army, and thus open the hex as a retreat path for Kushiro. Mission accomplished, so I'll have to rotate my Superforts and Liberators more aggressively now so that ops losses don't mount excessively.

[Canoerebel]

Today, Erik started with 475 fighters over the contested hex. Yesterday, he started with 700+. So his fighters are probably tuckered out after days of duty here. But he's also rotating them.

My concern is that he might divert his fighters as the spear point for a massive raid against Shikuka or Death Star. The latter is probably unlikely, as I think he'll want his first all-out DS strike to be maximum with well-rested aircraft.

He's in a tight spot now, and his habit in the past has been to attack hard somewhere when pressed elsewhere. Where and how he might strike is at the top of my list of things to ponder.

[Canoerebel]

2/16/45

NoPac: Today was particularly good for the Allies - light losses incurred, moderate to heavy damage inflicted. I don't think Erik will meekly accept this new model of punishment. I think he'll figure out a way to strike hard somewhere. I'll spend tomorrow morning issuing orders with that in mind.

[JohnDillworth]

What the heck are tankers doing in the middle of a huge battle? To valuable for bait and not significant enough to be worth going after. If he is pulling out fuel and oil that might tell you a lot about what your opponent thinks your intentions are. Valuable intel there.

[adarbrauner]

Dan, please, do not land small units or fragments just to cause the "auto-bombardment"