Notes from a Small Island

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Canoerebel
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Canoerebel »

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Something very important is that Erik got a full view of Death Star CAP during his sweeps of the woods hex, where DS is posted today. So he'll make deductions and reach conclusions. Information is key. I'll have to take that into account in making future decisions about DS uses and deployments.

If you have to, pull a Masterkova and beat feet out of there.

Yeah, danger lurks, but so do opportunties.

Do I bug out, to see what Erik might be up to first?

Or does Death Star remain in the vicinity, in order to cover in bound bombardment TFs and reinforcement TFs and to provide cover for the DD TFs patroling Wakkanai and (hypothetically) hindering Erik's ability to bring in reinforcements by sea (assuming he wishes to do so; if he doesn't yet, he will soon).
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by RangerJoe »

When he does get to your blocking hexes and you did a supply run/unit drop off, would that trigger an auto bombardment? Or would that only happen at the base? Doing one (or more [8D]) at the base on the same day as your attack would trigger the auto bombardment which would only help your attack and burn up his supplies.
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jwolf
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by jwolf »

Yeah I missed a hex in the map, sorry. It is true the Japanese still have a clear route to get into the blocking hex, but presumably they won't have an easy time clearing that hex to open up the road into Wakkanai itself.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Canoerebel »

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
When he does get to your blocking hexes and you did a supply run/unit drop off, would that trigger an auto bombardment? Or would that only happen at the base? Doing one (or more [8D]) at the base on the same day as your attack would trigger the auto bombardment which would only help your attack and burn up his supplies.

Landing units with combat AV will trigger an auto bombardment (if the enemy has arty present).

Dropping only supply or non-combat units won't.

I'm landing units at Wakkanai every turn that I can to trigger those self-destructive IJ bombardments. I'm holding off on some of my TFs tomorrow, due to the proximity of enemy combat ships, but one small TF carrying some halftracks will chance it.


"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/24/44

L+3: I'm watching what's going on out here, but I haven't seen anything worrisome yet. A don't think Erik will send carriers into the Gulf of Alaska, but I'm watching.


Image
That CM is one of the larger ones, and JFBs often use her for FT duties because she has a cargo capacity as well as a large number of mines. I wonder if he was hovering, waiting for a chance to evacuate troops from the Eastern Kuriles.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I assume that troops landing at the vacant hex south of Wakkani can only do so from the east side, where my guys are coming ashore.

I also assume (GULP) that Allied ships on the east side cannot be attacked by ships on the west side. That's almost certainly true, but you guys look at it and speak up if you think there's even the remotest chance something funky could happen.
Easy enough to check. Take one of your TFs in the hex SW of Wakkanai and give it a destination of that hex SE of there. If it can go directly eastward to that hex, then it is in the same hex and presumably could engage ships on the other side of the isthmus.

But I think the game's designers probably considered this and made sure ships have to go to the East side of the peninsula to get to the shoreline.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by BillBrown »

A thought from way out in the peanut gallery for consideration.

Most Japanese players draw a number of combat units from Manchucko. I wonder if you could bomb ground troops
that are in Manchucko hexes with no terrain bonus enough to trigger the Soviet activation? Your B-29s should do a
good job against troops that have no terrain bonus and probably no fighter cover.

As I said, just a thought for consideration.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Canoerebel »

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Easy enough to check. Take one of your TFs in the hex SW of Wakkanai and give it a destination of that hex SE of there. If it can go directly eastward to that hex, then it is in the same hex and presumably could engage ships on the other side of the isthmus.

But I think the game's designers probably considered this and made sure ships have to go to the East side of the peninsula to get to the shoreline.

I did just that earlier today. It does not appear that ships have access to that hex from the west side. I'm operating on that finding.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Canoerebel »

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

A thought from way out in the peanut gallery for consideration.

Most Japanese players draw a number of combat units from Manchucko. I wonder if you could bomb ground troops
that are in Manchucko hexes with no terrain bonus enough to trigger the Soviet activation? Your B-29s should do a
good job against troops that have no terrain bonus and probably no fighter cover.

As I said, just a thought for consideration.

Thanks for putting forth a clever idea, Bill. But I don't think it would have a prayer of working within any our lifetimes. From my experience in my game with John III, triggering Russian activation is an imprecise thing that may well not take place even if Japan falls considerably under the ratio/AV required. And even if the B-29s managed to disrupt enough troops to trigger such, it would take months and Erik would have plenty of time to adapt his air defenses.

I can wait for Russian activation in August. In the meantime, the best use of the B-29s will be strat bombing and, very occasionally, ground support or airfield suppression or port strikes.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Canoerebel »

After the movie today, I had some early ideas as to how to deploy and employ the Allied forces tomorrow, but really didn't like the overall feel. So I went for a long run on a quiet mountain road in a moderate rain. Voila! Eventually the ideas coalesced into a plan I think is best. Here's some of the notions:

1. Erik is likely to flood Wakkanai with riff-raff (including xAKs) to deplete ammo of my patrolling combat fleet. He would then send in his combat vessels and fast transport/transport vessels to bring in reinforcements. I am allowing for this to happen as soon as tomorrow, though I think it will be later. I will take countermeasures, but I think Erik may need time to better understand Wakkanai's situation and to get his reinforcements aboard ship and in place.
2. Erik knows how many Hellcats I've lost. Ordinarily, I think he'd pounce on that by ordering an all-out air attack, probably tomorrow, so I am taking the best countermeasures I can think of (primarily, puliing strike aircraft off the carriers and replacing them with Navy and Marine fighter squadrons. But I think his fighter squadrons are probably fatigued. For instance, he probably lost most of his new Ki-83s today. He can order that all-out attack, but his forces would come from multiple airfields. Some might be socked in by weather. Some tired squadrons might not fly. His strikes could be fragmented and chewed alive by Death Star. So I think he's more likely to continue sweeping for a awhile yet.
3. My first notion was to pull Death Star back a bit but decided instead to leave it in place to cover the mass of reinforcements coming ashore in that very hex today. From this position, DS can efficient CAP the inbound reinforcements and also strike any enemy ships that spend all or part of the turn at Wakkanai. There is risk here, but I think this is the best time to get the reinforcements in. The longer I wait, the more time he has to put together countermeasures. He will have a very hard time taking that woods hex if the US Army divisions lands there in decent shape tomorrow.
4. The Japanese could inflict a decisive defeat on the Allies, but I think that is unlikely. A trade-off is more likely. It is more likely that the Japanese air force would be gutted in an all-out attack.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Lokasenna »

You can stop the replay at any point by pressing Ctrl-P to pause. Pressing spacebar will move on to the next item (just like pressing spacebar will cancel out having pressed the escape key). Push any other button to resume replay as normal.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Canoerebel »

Thanks, that'll help me keep my sanity.

And I'll let Erik know to check the Combat Messages box to ON.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Canoerebel »

12/24/44

Planning for L+4: Tomorrow is Christmas Day. This graphic shows some of what's going on.

Most of the clicking is done. The turn will be off to Erik in a bit.


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"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by CaptBeefheart »

Good luck! Approaching crunch time.

Cheers,
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Lovejoy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/24/44

Planning for L+4: Tomorrow is Christmas Day.

And the benevolent Supreme Commander has managed to get Bob Hope and Bing Crosby to Shikuka to entertain the troops as a Christmas gift!
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Capt. Harlock »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/24/44

Air Losses: Another bloody day in air combat. The Allies did prevail, but not as readily as I had expected. At least at first blush. Let's look under the engine:

1. Both sides are losing a lot of good fighters.
2. On my side, I am particularly worried about Hellcats.
3. On his side, I figure he is using his best now, and his losses are heavy. He's losing a hundred or two hundred aircraft per day. I am too, but my losses are a bit more spread out. I don't feel like I'm seeing a huge erosion yet in overall capabilities.
4. He lost a lot of the Ki-83s today, fighting Hellcats over Death Star. If the Hellcat manages to go 1:1 against his very best fighters, he's got to be hurting.
5. My air force is feeling pretty stretched. I am assuming that his is too. If I am wrong - if he hasn't even committed his reserves yet and is laughing at me all the while - I'm toast. But my feeling after months of tough fighting in Burma and NoPac is that he's fighting hard with his best. I hope so.



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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Canoerebel »

The USO is bringing in Ingrid Bergman and June Allyson. I'm going!
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Canoerebel »

Capt. Harlock, I have 225 P-47D25 in the pools and all squadrons are flush. They are split evenly between CAP, escort and sweep. I am not impressed with them on sweep, so I lean towards Corsairs and Mustangs in that role, with the former doing most of the heavy lifting (and paying for it).

I think the P-47s will make it until the -N model comes online.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Canoerebel »

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/24/44

L+3: I'm watching what's going on out here, but I haven't seen anything worrisome yet. A don't think Erik will send carriers into the Gulf of Alaska, but I'm watching.

That CM is one of the larger ones, and JFBs often use her for FT duties because she has a cargo capacity as well as a large number of mines. I wonder if he was hovering, waiting for a chance to evacuate troops from the Eastern Kuriles.

Thanks, BBfanboy, I didn't know those things.

I don't think the CM got near the Kuriles or was being used in that capacity, but I could be wrong.

I wonder if she wasn't out there measuring detection levels from Allied patrol aircraft based at Ketoi and Uruppu? Erik might be thinking of pre-positioning carriers or combat ships to intercept ingressors or egressors.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Notes from a Small Island

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
ORIGINAL: BillBrown

A thought from way out in the peanut gallery for consideration.

Most Japanese players draw a number of combat units from Manchucko. I wonder if you could bomb ground troops
that are in Manchucko hexes with no terrain bonus enough to trigger the Soviet activation? Your B-29s should do a
good job against troops that have no terrain bonus and probably no fighter cover.

As I said, just a thought for consideration.

Thanks for putting forth a clever idea, Bill. But I don't think it would have a prayer of working within any our lifetimes. From my experience in my game with John III, triggering Russian activation is an imprecise thing that may well not take place even if Japan falls considerably under the ratio/AV required. And even if the B-29s managed to disrupt enough troops to trigger such, it would take months and Erik would have plenty of time to adapt his air defenses.

I can wait for Russian activation in August. In the meantime, the best use of the B-29s will be strat bombing and, very occasionally, ground support or airfield suppression or port strikes.

I believe it is a percentage chance that is inversely proportional to the percentage of the 8000 required garrison there. So if you dropped his AV to just 7999, the chance would be incredibly small.

Still, I wonder if it's a worthwhile distraction. If you do it and he guesses what you're doing, does he keep or move more troops to Manchuria than he would otherwise?
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