Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

Kamikaze activation is determined by the distance at sea (not straight line). Wakkanai is 20 sea hexes from Tokyo, so no kamikaze activation.

Country code 100 (including all of Hokkaido) means the emergency reinforcements are triggered.

[BillBrown]

I believe that 20 is the magic number. but I count 21 hexes from Tokyo to Wakkanai, not 20.

[Lokasenna]

I think he meant to say "Wakkanai is more than 20."

Also, I re-counted on my zoomed-out map. I think Sapporo is in.

[CaptBeefheart]

Congratulations on the wedding! That must have been a great moment for you.

I have a two-year-old daughter, so I'm hoping I'll still be kicking when she ties the knot.

Good luck with the Hokkaido invasion. I sense an epic struggle about to unfold.

Cheers,
CB (formerly Commander Cody)

[Bif1961]

My oldest son's favorite movie was the Sound of Music as well. Good thing they don't have father son dances at weddings ... yet.

[Canoerebel]

I did an awful thing in the quiet darkness early Sunday morning. We got home from the wedding about 10:30 p.m. Saturday night. Then I ran the turn. Then, at midnight, I started preparing to teach Sunday school in the morning. I finished the lesson at 2 a.m. and thought it might be fun to watch the "Edelweiss" excerpt from The Sound of Music. How sweetly sad it was to be in the same room where we had watched that movie so many times when the children were young! That was a tough way to sign off from a busy and meaningful day.

Now, when my boys get married, I think that will be a riot! My youngest son is in a serious relationship with a really nice girl. My older son isn't currently in a relationship and seemingly has no prospects. At his age, I was in exactly that situation. Less than two years later, I was married. Now wife and I have been married for 31 years.

P.S. Erik has had the turn since early Sunday morning...I think. He's spending a lot of time with it. I haven't heard from him, but I think he'll send it sometime today.

[Canoerebel]

The timing of this turn is a close thing.

For instance, Erik still holds Uruppu. I tried to time things so that Uruppu's fate would be sealed by the time the Wakkanai invasion took place. I didn't want him to give him an opportunity to reinforce belatedly, while my forces are drawn elsewhere. I think I succeeded, but he may try a quick and strong evacuation maneuver.

The Allied TFs are a bit spread out on L-Day. If Erik guessed right or had his air force set a certain way purely by chance, my invasion armada and some retiring bombardment TFs could be overwhelmed. But I felt like the deployments were the best way to maximize suprise, which would in turn minimize enemy fine-tuned preparation. After L-Day, Death Star should be in position to maximize protection. But multiple enemy level 9 airfields are in proximity, so the fighting should be hot and heavy.

On L-Day, nearly all Allied bombers at Toyohara and Shikuka focus on the enemy airfield at Wakkanai. I hope they (and two big bombardment TFs) can render it in operational quickly. Local sea defenses are provided by several decent combat TFs (once DS arrives, the defenses will be much stronger). Here, again, I felt like the surprise factor would minimize the risk that Erik would choose to send in big combat TFs to this base on this day.

[JohnDillworth]

I know some of those little islands have some hefty , historical, costal forts. Does Wakkanai (or “Wakanda” as Greyjoy might have called it) have forts or is it just whatever costal defense guns might have been sent there? There are quite a few troops there and if it takes weeks to reduce you may get pretty beat up.

[Canoerebel]

Wakkanai has a CD unit that I assume is still there (it may be static). Erik might've brought more CD units in. His garrison is 52k and forts will be at least six. The terrain is 2x.

In contrast, Uruppu might've been the tougher nut to crack (I'm hoping so) with 65k men, six forts, 3x terrain, and at least one CD unit.

I think the Uruppu ops has taken about six weeks. I'm hoping that I can slow or stymie Erik's efforts to bring in reinforcements and supply to Wakkanai. There's a chance, perhaps only a slight one, that the Allies can reduce and take the base before meaningful reinforcments arrive. If not it will be a long, tough campaign. Since there are no stacking limits, he could ram in 200k troops or more. If things turn into a real quagmire, I would consider withdrawing the invasion force to pivot elsewhere. I hope that doesn't happen, but the bottom line is that the main objective is to compel Erik to attack and fight, and for the Allies to prevail by defending capably.

[Canoerebel]

Erik's air force remains very potent. His navy is in pretty bad shape. He can't afford for his navy to take a licking even if it's dealing out one at the same time.

[BillBrown]

I am waiting on the edge of my seat, wondering what will happen.

[Lovejoy]

Looking forward to seeing this play out!

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wakkanai has a CD unit that I assume is still there (it may be static). Erik might've brought more CD units in. His garrison is 52k and forts will be at least six. The terrain is 2x.

In contrast, Uruppu might've been the tougher nut to crack (I'm hoping so) with 65k men, six forts, 3x terrain, and at least one CD unit.

I think the Uruppu ops has taken about six weeks. I'm hoping that I can slow or stymie Erik's efforts to bring in reinforcements and supply to Wakkanai. There's a chance, perhaps only a slight one, that the Allies can reduce and take the base before meaningful reinforcments arrive. If not it will be a long, tough campaign. Since there are no stacking limits, he could ram in 200k troops or more. If things turn into a real quagmire, I would consider withdrawing the invasion force to pivot elsewhere. I hope that doesn't happen, but the bottom line is that the main objective is to compel Erik to attack and fight, and for the Allies to prevail by defending capably.

Wakkanai has a static Coastal Fort, but in stock it has only something like 4 x 152mm guns. A few embedded CAs or BBs should keep it down.

When you announced the attack on Wakkanai your map boxes said in early November there were 42K troops at Wakkanai and now you say 52K. Could the difference be FOW or do you think he reinforced? Perhaps extra Air Support to handle his recent surges in the air campaign?

[Canoerebel]

I'm suspecting he added a mixed brigade or possibly troops withdrawn from Paramushiro by air transport.

Erik had well over half a million men in the Kuriles. The garrison at Ketoi was destroyed. The garrison at Uruppu is about to be destroyed. Over the past few weeks, I've suspected (but not confirmed, due to erratic recon and reports) that he's been drawing down some of the garrisons by air transport, mostly likely Para and Onnekotan. I was getting the feeling that the imminent fall of Uruppu and the vulnerability of his strong garrisons worried him, so that he was beginning to attend to Hokkaido's defenses.

I triggered the invasion as soon as Uruppu's fate seem sealed. My forces are prepped from the low 50s to the high 70s, a bit less than I wanted. The amphibious force HQ is prepped at about 75%. SWPAC HQ is prepped about 85% and is posted at Toyohara.

[Lokasenna]

Your prep levels worry me but only slightly. With enough bombardment/embedded big guns (8"+) you should be fine. I am taking the under on 10K troops disabled on the beach (assuming you're landing about 40K).

[Canoerebel]

I'm landing 5 infantry division, armor, artillery, combat engineers - what's that, something on the order of 100k? 125k?

[Canoerebel]

12/21/44


L-Day: The situation at the beginning of the turn on which the Allies will invade the Home Islands.

[Canoerebel]

12/21/44

L-Day: The invasion opens with a clash between the Allied amphibious HQ TF and a flock of MTBs. Gulp. Fortunately, the Allies win a one-sided action.

Enemy MTBs were a big worry. During the Uruppu invasion, an MTB TF got into the midst of my main amphibious TF, resulting in a series of very damaging collisions to APAs and AKAs.

This invasion TF includes a main TF of 100 ships, including scores of APA and AKA plus BB Richelieu. I loaded it up with combat ships and decided, after much thought, not to break the TF up to spread the risk.

[Canoerebel]

12/21/44

L-Day: The first of two big bombardment TFs arrives at Wakkanai to find a midget sub.

THere will be a series of skirmishes like this, with the SSXs scoring one hit on an AM and the Allies probably sinking three or four midgets.
t

[Canoerebel]

12/21/44

L-Day: Enemy defenses begin scoring hits.