Oct 43 Summary
Busy, tough, but overall positive month. Still without the US CVs, taking Babar was like poking the tiger in the eye. And the reaction was even a bit worse than anticipated. That said, at month’s end, Babar remains in Allied hands, and the entire IJN with an estimated two divisions of troops are focused on retaking it and two smaller islands, and the issue is currently “in doubt”. In other areas, good news across the board - unexpectedly rapid gains in liberating most of Burma including Rangoon, and planned gains in CENPAC and SOPAC were accomplished. Naval losses for the month were in the Allies favor mainly due to mines being very effective at Babar; the IJN lost 1CVE, CA, CL, 11DD and 6SS compared to the Allies losing 3DD, 1 DE, 4 SS and 14PT. Of the IJN losses, the CL and an estimated 8 DDs can be attributed to mines in the Babar or Damar islands. In the air, it was a challenging month for the Allied Cause, 877 for Jpn to 708 Allied, nowhere near the desired 2-1 loss ratio.
INTEL: Babar has brought the IJN out in force, and most capital ships seem to be accounted for operating out of Ambon in the Banda/Timor Sea in an effort to retake Babar and surrounding small islands seized by the Allies during the month. Other than subs and light shipping (barges, PBs and xAKLs) nothing has been sighted and engaged in other Theaters. Not sure what will draw the IJN off the current stranglehold around Babar, but Nov will put some events into motion that may loosen the grip.
SUBWAR: Allied subs did get some luck this month putting torps into a CVE and a BB, but the cost is high. Not only were four subs lost, but at least a dozen are currently either in the yards under repair or enroute to yards. Effective ASW a/c remain the greatest threat, but escorts and small ASW TFs are becoming more effective. IJN subs continue to be a nuisance, and seem to be mainly concentrated in the Indian Ocean area.
West Coast/USA/Rear Areas: Fighter production rises to 659 in Nov with the Brits getting the Spit VIII. Bomber squadrons remain understrength, although for the first time US Heavies will outnumber mediums. Pilot pools remain mixed with the same issues as previous months. On the naval side, November will see the US CVs returning from repairs and CVLs changing the Fighter/Torp bomber mix to 24 fighters and 9 TBFs. That’s an increase in 12 F6Fs per CVL. November will also see the first F4U-1As deployed on CVs - USMC squadrons adding 6-12 F4U-1As to CVs in the IO.
NOPAC. The only activity of note was a CL TF raiding sortie to the Kuriles that found no shipping, but managed to find a mine, damaging a CL. Will remain quiet.
CENPAC. Steady progress as planned, culminating with putting troops ashore at Ponape after taking Kwajalein. CD batteries are becoming more effective as defenses get more robust, but the landings in the Marshalls have provided a good “testing ground” for Amphibious tactics with minimal air and no naval opposition to worry about. November should see the Marshalls completely secure, as well as Wake, if it is indeed abandoned. A Small CV TF (CV, 2CVL) will join the CVEs deployed in the Pacific and while they will provide support in SOPAC during the upcoming Hollandia operations, the CV TF will also be used to disrupt shipping and provide a “threat” - maybe they can catch a troops convoy heading in the Marianas.
SOPAC. Taking Hansa Bay changed the tempo here. This landing outflanked the main defensive line (I think), and will lead to opening up the northern New Guinea coast which will be the focus in November, followed by landing at Manus - which is needed as the best port outside of Rabaul. Large IJA forces have been bypassed, and will remain isolated (read not engaged) in Kavieng, Rabaul, most of New Ireland, and in the Lae area. Bitter fighting still continues in Salamaua area, and can be expected at Wau. Once these areas are fully secured, and enemy forces either destroyed or forced into the Lae area, the Allied troops will be available to secure the bypassed IJA forces as well as operations further west.
SWPAC/WAUS. The Babar operation has drawn out the wrath of the Empire in trying to take it back. Fortunately, the base was taken and secured to a fort level 3 before the IJN was able to fully counter attack. By month’s end the IJA had counter landed with a Division Plus, but the US IN Bde and USMC Def Bn was holding in good shape. The IJN landing were expensive to the Empire - and that is the goal right now. Without committing any warship larger than a destroyer, continue to attrit the IJN and if at all possible hold Babar until the IJN is forced to relocate due to a crisis in another Theater. As mentioned earlier, the situation is “in doubt”. If Babar can be held, and the IJN does move to either SOPAC or the IO, Allied ground troops are now well prepared to resume offensive operations and begin other landings.
China. Another heavy attack on Chungking was held with heavy IJA loss. I still think time is running out for the beleaguered defenders, but every month they hold is a welcome sight!
Burma. I was surprised that L_S_T didn’t try to hold the Prome-Rangoon-Pegu line and make it a tough fight. Instead only a single Bde was left behind in Rangoon and that was easily dealt with. That said, L_S_T has established a very effective line just NE of Moulmein. The Allies are in no position to force that line for the rest of the year, a “recon in force” is the best I can hope for - to find a weak spot up river from Moulmein to gain a bridgehead where the line can be flanked. The main effort continues to be establishing the route to Paoshan from Lashio and dealing with the RTA and IJA elements bypassed north of Lashio. As anticipated, terrain is making this a difficult operation, and both US Divisions have been committed to open the route before the end of Nov. In the air, the bomber force needs a rest, but has moved out of India into the very good existing Burma airfields of Prome and Magwe with fighters concentrated at Rangoon. At sea, the port of Rangoon is open for business! Much earlier than expected, and now I’m short shipping, but the influx of troops and supplies has started despite the air threat, and will only get bigger as the engineers have begun to expand the port. Additional shipping is also enroute, with about 20% of xAKs being pulled from West Coast ports to enable a East Coast to Aden, and then an Aden to India shipping route for supplies, as well as reinforcing the xAKs moving supplies in the Bay of Bengal.
IO. It remained relatively quiet with the IJN deployed to Ambon. Focus was shifting troops OFF the Andamans to prepare for future operations, and by month’s end, that is almost complete. The Japanese largely cooperated with minimal interference; IJN subs and only sporadic air attacks. With the CVs coming back into service, and the APA refit completed, its time to resume the long delayed offensive operations against Sumatra - as long as the IJN is operating out of Ambon and focused on Babar, this is more than feasible. This is likely to draw the IJN back to the IO of course, and although close, I think the IJN has the edge in flight decks at the moment. An all-out CV duel is going to be risky, but it’s time to move ahead.
