How to interpret intelligence reports

[mschuette5]

Playing as the German, I'm struggling to understand the daily intelligence reports. Specifically, for each theater I receive a report on the number of Army HQ's, divisions, and unidentified formations, according to ground forces, then a number of HQ's and divisions reported by radio intercepts, and finally HQ's and divisions spotted by the Luftwaffe. Are there potential overlaps in the units identified? In other words, to get an estimate of the total number of forces I am facing in a theater, do I add the HQ's and divisions reported by the 3 sources or do I take that total as a maximum, possibly being less if the same formation is identified by each of the 3 sources?

[lancer]

Hi mschuette,

The different sources have varying levels of reliability.

I'd refer you to page 205 of the manual.

Cheers,
Cameron

[mschuette5]

My question is more about how much overlap there is between the reports from the 3 sources. I imagine that the report from the ground forces pertains to enemy formations they have been in contact with as well as those within reconnaissance range. Radio intercepts are probably formations that haven't already been identified/contacted by ground forces. Luftwaffe reports pertain to formations spotted deep in enemy territory behind the lines. These may overlap with formations identified through radio intercepts. So, under my conception, there would be no overlap between formations identified by ground forces and radio intercepts. There may be some overlap between the radio intercepts and Luftwaffe reports. Is this a correct interpretation?

[lancer]

Hi mschuette,

Each type of intel is calculated in a different manner internally. They are all going to have varying levels of reliability.
Luftwaffe reports, for example, are going to be of great use if the weather is fine but dubious when the weather is worse. Radio intercepts tend to work best with formations closer to the front whereas the Luftwaffe can range a lot further.

There are no hard and fast rules about overlap or reliability as such. The idea is that you, as Operational Commander, take the varying sources of intel and decide how much reliance you can place on each, given the circumstances.

Each source is indepedent of the others. When you assess their veracity there's an element of cross checking involved. If several intel sources are indicating high numbers of Soviets then it's a good indication that this is probably the case.

The program calculates exact numbers and then applies a measure of 'fuzzy logic' before the report is generated.

Cheers,
Cameron