The Accidental War Obvert vs Lowpe

[Lowpe]

Myoko and Takao both make Pontianak safely, as Allied subs seem to focus on Singkawang. Four destroyers present.

[offenseman]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

This is such a strange game! [8D]

I do seem to recall folks predicting that an early Soviet activation would be a Japan cake-walk due entirely to the superiority of their air force.

Hmm . . .

Nobody I know has ever started a war with the Soviets this early, outside of Focus Pacific. In addition, most Japanese players pull a surprise attack on the Soviets, but it was Japan that got surprised.

By June, the Japanese fighters can dominate, and during 1942 the Soviets will lose 7 Divisions (approximately) to fight the Germans.

But offsetting the Japanese eventual superiority in the air, is the excellent Soviet AA.

There is very little plane builds, or even replacement troops.

So, I anticipate a change in fortune here eventually, before the end.

Just catching up on this fascinating AAR. There was once a player named seydlitz and he activated the Soviets in a planned move in IIRC mid-December 41. IIRC again it was around the time AE first came out. Scenario 1, no mods. Don, seydlitz, did an AAR called Nomonhan Redux. The gambit failed and it was Don's opinion that the game engine simply wasn't up to the task of having the Sovs active that early. It appears, given that you are doing remarkably well considering the stiff odds against you, that he was wrong.[:)] Brilliant so far

[offenseman]

ORIGINAL: DanSez

I would wager that the vast majority of the Japanese Players have failed a morale check or two if they have played PBEM games.

That does not mean to quit the game and walk away. Morale keeps you looking for those opportunities, for those victories on the margins. Lack of morale is to just finish the turn.

I would give Lowpe credit (along with a couple of others) of keeping my PBEM games going when the results were rough.

Bingo. you pick your morale up off the ground and fight on.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

... Rest: I know it is hard when you are on the edge, BUT 25% of your A6M and +30% of your overall fighter losses are Ops losses. You should be able to get that down to 10-15%, that would be ~200 more fighters right now. Granted, I am being simplistic, other losses would happen. Still... increase your rest on all fighter units by 10%. Combat outcomes won't change much, but the ops losses will drop at bases where there is sufficient AV present to repair...

I've never subscribed to the common view that rest is essential to keeping a lid on operational losses. Of far greater impact is the distance flown. Constant shifting of air units from airfield to another, particularly when flying close to the aircraft's maximum range or to underdeveloped airfields, increases operational losses. As does flying operations beyond normal range. Flying back successfully a damaged aircraft is greatly impacted by both the distance and the pilot's experience level.

Lowpe is already limiting his fighter units to a 40% CAP level. Dropping that down to 30% will result in having insufficient fighters up and air-to-air losses will probably increase. In general terms if Lowpe has to drop CAP down to 30% then he can't afford to be fighting and should just stand down his air units.

I would increase the CAP level to a minimum of 50% with certain units capable of 60-70% for 2-3 days at a time. Definitely need to have 133% of pilot TOE assigned to the fighter units. If Lowpe can't overstack the pilot roster, then that again is a strong indication that he can't afford to conduct these air operations and the nits should be stood down. Plus absolutely no flying beyond normal range. If that means no sweeps then so be it. In fact if Lowpe is encountering the Migs only when sweeping and not when defending Japanese air space then that is a very good reason to just eliminate sweeps.

Alfred

Alfred, I agree with your points in terms of what causes both pilot and plane fatigue: distance, night ops, base moves/relocations, high % of max range ops ...

What recuperates that fatigue is rest. Either standing the unit down completely and activating a new unit or putting the unit on partial rest will lower the unit fatigue. At least that is what I see. For any given mission profile, I can set the % rest at a value where the unit fatigue will remain at a pre-determined value.

EX: I have a 12 plane group of Mavis flying at range 15 NavSearch. With not enemy CAP activity, and with full overstock of pilots and aircraft (16 each), 30% rest will keep the group operational with 1 or 2 op losses per month. nothing is perfect, and weather definitely will impact it. If I go to range 20, I have increase rest to 40% to accomplish the same thing. The impact of the move from 30 -> 40% is that the search arc necessarily needs to narrow.

The same thing for any other mission profile. When you throw in combat though, fatigue increases dramatically and you've got to increase rest somehow to mitigate that. Either the percentage in the unit OR be able to alternate groups. I, and I believe most players, prefer the latter. Switching groups on/off of CAP really improves performance, but Lowpe does not have that luxury (yet). He has to throw his groups into the fire, his back is against the wall. All I am suggesting is that increasing rest may not change the combat reports much, but he should see lower ops losses. Lower ops losses today => more fighters able to lift tomorrow and each of those airframes and pilots will start with lower fatigue so they will perform better in the battles that have to be fought.

It is a suggestion, nothing more, and I am offering an outside perspective that someone in the midst of the fray may overlook. nothing more.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am running rest for fighters...just have to fly from damaged bases ...

That hurts, but I get it. Nothing much to do for it...

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
I am making 11.26 IJA planes per day and 8.24 IJNAF.

OK, that makes more sense. So you are kicking out ~6 Oscars and maybe 5 A6M's per day. Ouch, I had hoped for more, particularly A6M's but your supply is really tight. Still, you are building ~300 top line fighters/month. that's about double allied production, but maybe only about 40% more including allied replacements. Tighter than would be liked.

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
Supply stockpile is no longer Tokyo, but Nagasaki. I think Tokyo has around 45,000. She will burn.

Understood, so transpose my statement about Tokyo to Nagasaki.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

... Rest: I know it is hard when you are on the edge, BUT 25% of your A6M and +30% of your overall fighter losses are Ops losses. You should be able to get that down to 10-15%, that would be ~200 more fighters right now. Granted, I am being simplistic, other losses would happen. Still... increase your rest on all fighter units by 10%. Combat outcomes won't change much, but the ops losses will drop at bases where there is sufficient AV present to repair...

I've never subscribed to the common view that rest is essential to keeping a lid on operational losses. Of far greater impact is the distance flown. Constant shifting of air units from airfield to another, particularly when flying close to the aircraft's maximum range or to underdeveloped airfields, increases operational losses. As does flying operations beyond normal range. Flying back successfully a damaged aircraft is greatly impacted by both the distance and the pilot's experience level.

Lowpe is already limiting his fighter units to a 40% CAP level. Dropping that down to 30% will result in having insufficient fighters up and air-to-air losses will probably increase. In general terms if Lowpe has to drop CAP down to 30% then he can't afford to be fighting and should just stand down his air units.

I would increase the CAP level to a minimum of 50% with certain units capable of 60-70% for 2-3 days at a time. Definitely need to have 133% of pilot TOE assigned to the fighter units. If Lowpe can't overstack the pilot roster, then that again is a strong indication that he can't afford to conduct these air operations and the nits should be stood down. Plus absolutely no flying beyond normal range. If that means no sweeps then so be it. In fact if Lowpe is encountering the Migs only when sweeping and not when defending Japanese air space then that is a very good reason to just eliminate sweeps.

Alfred

Alfred, I agree with your points in terms of what causes both pilot and plane fatigue: distance, night ops, base moves/relocations, high % of max range ops ...

What recuperates that fatigue is rest. Either standing the unit down completely and activating a new unit or putting the unit on partial rest will lower the unit fatigue. At least that is what I see. For any given mission profile, I can set the % rest at a value where the unit fatigue will remain at a pre-determined value.

EX: I have a 12 plane group of Mavis flying at range 15 NavSearch. With not enemy CAP activity, and with full overstock of pilots and aircraft (16 each), 30% rest will keep the group operational with 1 or 2 op losses per month. nothing is perfect, and weather definitely will impact it. If I go to range 20, I have increase rest to 40% to accomplish the same thing. The impact of the move from 30 -> 40% is that the search arc necessarily needs to narrow.

The same thing for any other mission profile. When you throw in combat though, fatigue increases dramatically and you've got to increase rest somehow to mitigate that. Either the percentage in the unit OR be able to alternate groups. I, and I believe most players, prefer the latter. Switching groups on/off of CAP really improves performance, but Lowpe does not have that luxury (yet). He has to throw his groups into the fire, his back is against the wall. All I am suggesting is that increasing rest may not change the combat reports much, but he should see lower ops losses. Lower ops losses today => more fighters able to lift tomorrow and each of those airframes and pilots will start with lower fatigue so they will perform better in the battles that have to be fought.

It is a suggestion, nothing more, and I am offering an outside perspective that someone in the midst of the fray may overlook. nothing more.

There is no dispute that fatigue is reduced only by not flying although overstacking the pilot roster helps in as much the code automatically deactivates the most fatigued pilots and replaces them with previously deactivated pilots with lesser fatigue.

The basic point I make is that the pain threshold for players re pilot fatigue is generally too low. Regularly I read of players concerned when the pilot fatigue level trends to 20 and as a consequence they stand down the squadron or up the rest level. Other players, as a prophylactic measure against reaching a fatigue level of 20, clamp a rest level ab initio which to me is too high. Personally, provided I have an overstacked pilot roster together with a surplus of aviation support (and I meet those two conditions 99% of the time) I am generally not too concerned if my pilots reach the low 40s.

The other basic point I am making and it is one you yourself have made in the past is that air combat results ceteris paribus, the side with the greater numbers at the OK Corral ab initio, tend to favour the side with the greater number of combatants. Currently Lowpe is flying understrength fighter units against the Soviets. If he increases the rest level there will be even fewer Japanese aircraft to begin with and the late arrival of stragglers does not improve the Japanese situation. Therefore Lowpe is faced with the Hobden choice of reducing his operational losses at the likely cost of increasing his A2A losses. In that scenario tis better to endure operational losses as they do not improve the skills of the enemy pilots which planes shot down directly over the battlefield does. It is this Hobden choice why I raised the thought that considering to decline battle is an option.

Patrol squadrons, even when limited to distances well within their normal range, are generally assigned to fly much greater distances than fighter squadrons. For Japan this is accentuated by the huge normal range of it's flying boats. Even limiting myself to a 12 hex range for Catalinas (there are exceptions), my Catalina pilots are flying 2x - 4x the range of my fighter pilots. Therefore I generally place a 20% rest level on my patrol squadrons. OTOH my Seagull and Kingfisher with a normal range of only 4-5 I have no hesitation in placing them on 100% search. Their operational losses are more in the range of 1-2 yearly.

Lowpe is smart enough to mine our two different approaches to find the nuggets of gold which interest him and more importantly can be successfully applied to his current situation. I strongly suspect he adheres to your school of thought much more than mine.

Alfred

[Lokasenna]

In my experience, extreme levels of ops losses on combat aircraft is not the result of pilot fatigue but the result of damaged aircraft being written off or crashing. I'm sure there's some overlap, but damage is the primary cause.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

In my experience, extreme levels of ops losses on combat aircraft is not the result of pilot fatigue but the result of damaged aircraft being written off or crashing. I'm sure there's some overlap, but damage is the primary cause.

Agreed. In post #1953 (and subsequently) I was addressing Pax's suggestion of increasing the rest level, a suggestion arising from his legitimate concern re operational losses sustained to date.

About a week or so ago I commented that Lowpe was doing quite well in sustaining far fewer overall aircraft losses than his opponent. Usually the losses are far higher for Japan, a state of affairs which really should not be the case but which is brought about by emotional rather than logical handling of Japanese air assets by most players. In a sense what Pax and I are discussing is somewhat moot because overall Lowpe is handling his air assets well.

Alfred

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Alfred
... because overall Lowpe is handling his air assets well.

Alfred

+1

[Lowpe]

Japan is being pressed.

[Lowpe]

I use rest in a number of situations:

Every bombing/strafing mission I use at least 10% rest.
Almost every sweep I use 10% rest, unless I am using a dedicated sweeping Sentai.
LRCAP I use up to 30% rest.
Early ASW work is set to 40/40/20 ASW/Trng/Rest
Transports are always set to at least a minimum 10% rest

Naval Search, Recon, Pure ASW, 0 hex CAP, almost never uses rest. Recon needs to be watched carefully, especially if the squadron has less than 6 planes.

One exception: I run rest when flying into or out of damaged runways/repair facilities/or a base two small for the craft.

Unfortunately in this game I have done a huge amount of long range Zero transfers. I mean an incredible amount. Plus a lot of night operations.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: offenseman

Just catching up on this fascinating AAR. There was once a player named seydlitz and he activated the Soviets in a planned move in IIRC mid-December 41. IIRC again it was around the time AE first came out. Scenario 1, no mods. Don, seydlitz, did an AAR called Nomonhan Redux. The gambit failed and it was Don's opinion that the game engine simply wasn't up to the task of having the Sovs active that early. It appears, given that you are doing remarkably well considering the stiff odds against you, that he was wrong.[:)] Brilliant so far

I am teetering, and will be for a bit yet. I need Nicks, production will be 100 per month, and the A6M3 to really start to turn the tide.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Tighter than would be liked.

I was really trying to get the job done early on with a very minimal investment in Oscar Ic and A6M2. Well, that has made everything very difficult given the Soviet activation.

April Rufe comes along, and that will free up some fighter squadrons from deep industry protection, May the Nick arrives and will have 3 full Sentai by the end of May, and June the A6M3 will start (maybe sooner) and then the tide will have turned in the air if I have pilots left.

Both Nick and A6M3 production will be pretty healthy immediately.

Jack should arrive in mid-late 1942. I should get Frank/Jack/Sam very early. George medium early. Night-fighters early. Bombers with the exception of the Grace will come with no acceleration.

[Lowpe]

Upgrade games.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
I was really trying to get the job done early on with a very minimal investment in Oscar Ic and A6M2. Well, that has made everything very difficult given the Soviet activation...

That explains it ... thanks for filling that piece in for me ... [8D]

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Upgrade games.

Will be interesting test ... I've never actually looked at it before ...

[Yakface]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Upgrade games.

I've just stumbled onto this um......feature, too - particularly useful for B17's. When you upgrade to a B17 they can have anywhere up to 20 days before being ready. A quick transfer by rail and it's no more than 4 days. Currently testing whether loading them on a ship and offloading does the same thing.

[Lowpe]

Now, there Yak you spoiled my surprise for Pax.[:-][:D]

Turn is done and away. Probably going to go thru a slower pace the next few days as I am swamped with stuff irl. Obvert has been incredible in getting a turn done roughly every day despite two games.

I set up a cap trap over Djambi, sent destroyers to Palembang, stripped Palembang of all Zero fighters, only Nates there now, and a few damaged planes. Flying in the 4th Division, sent more reinforcements to the area, and working on getting my crippled ships back and out. Plus other raids...

It could get very ugly in Palembang this turn, or it could be peaceful as the Allies protect their shipping at Singers.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Fear not! Obvert hasn't been posting so I have defected! I stole the plans to a secret Allied weapon called... The Death Star!!! I shall load the plans into this droid and send it to you. As soon as my wife stops making phone calls on it. Never mind, that will take too long. I'll just describe it to you. Do you have a pencil? Good! First, it's really, really big.

Have you fled back to the Allied side? I think Obvert only posts when I slow down.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: offenseman

Just catching up on this fascinating AAR. There was once a player named seydlitz and he activated the Soviets in a planned move in IIRC mid-December 41. IIRC again it was around the time AE first came out. Scenario 1, no mods. Don, seydlitz, did an AAR called Nomonhan Redux. The gambit failed and it was Don's opinion that the game engine simply wasn't up to the task of having the Sovs active that early. It appears, given that you are doing remarkably well considering the stiff odds against you, that he was wrong.[:)] Brilliant so far

I am teetering, and will be for a bit yet. I need Nicks, production will be 100 per month, and the A6M3 to really start to turn the tide.

That's a lot of Nicks. For perspective, I've never produced more than 45/mo (which turned out to be a surplus) of any one model. You'll be using them far more as they're quite obviously your best early hope at stopping bombers.


No room for Judy-4 in your R&D plans?