The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post descriptions of your brilliant victories and unfortunate defeats here.

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Canoerebel
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Lots of small reasons: nearby, troops prepped (so take advantage of it, unless there are better uses available), enemy troops are vulnerable, and John could potentially use Hainan's airfields for deviltry - it's airfields are secure to him and somewhat problematic. Moving on Hainan seems efficient - the troops ships are close by; the troops are close by; Death Star, to the extent needed, is close by. So Hainan makes sense whereas Palembang or Balikpapan take much more effort and are more likely to detract from the forward progression of Allied operations.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John is away on vacation for a few days. I think the war will resume Monday or Tuesday.

In the meantime, I'm looking under the hood at these kinds of things:

1. Pilot and commander quality, beginning first with the carrier fighter squadrons (Superforts, Liberatores, Avengers and LBA fighters need be included in too).
2. Looking at ground troops distribution outside of China. Prep is good for places like Singapore, Korea, Hokkaido, Balikpapan, and Palembang. Which of those will I realistically target? Where do I need to have rear-guards in case of clever enemy mischief like a belated major invasion of....say, Fiji?
3. Logistics. The supply situation in China/Formosa/Luzon looks excellent. I think I was right that supply was good through about February. But I'm now (and have always) been working on getting supply to Oz, safely out of reach of John's raiders. Oz has a healthy level now. So, when the time comes, the fleet of empties safely secured at Boela will report to Normanton to begin loading to carry it to the DEI and then onward. But not now. For the next two to six weeks, Allied shipping will remain dormant, allowing John to grow weary of having subs and raiders positioned in such unfruitful areas.
In my recent PBM I went through the Shanghai area much later than you are invested there, I pulled out 98% of Allied troops and air support shortly thereafter to invade Japan's HI, and the Chinese Army & Air Force made it to the Border of Korea by game end in late July '45.

As you are there earlier and not invading Japan's HI my advice is: storm across those plains and head for Korea! You might be able to attrite the IJA garrison in Manchuria enough to trigger Soviet activation.
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Canoerebel
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Yes, lots of options, and that's the preferred one.

Lowpe long, long ago mentioned that there were so many options opened. This was back about the time I invaded Formosa. He seemed especially interested in a scenario in which a big Allied invasion of Manchuria (and/or Korea) elevated the chances of Soviet activation.

I'm probably still several months away from reaching Manchuria....and I'm trying to end the war as soon as possible now. Strategic bombing is still the bell cow.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by jwolf »

He seemed especially interested in a scenario in which a big Allied invasion of Manchuria (and/or Korea) elevated the chances of Soviet activation.

He's not the only one. [8D] It would be really cool, and your fans would love it!
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by JeffroK »

IMVHO,

Is it time to "cut out" a major portion of KB?
It seems that its whereabouts are a major influence on your operations.

If JIII is moving into the Solomons/Fiji area, how can you put a block on his lines of retreat.
You should have a large number of aircraft that while not first line, are more than capable against CV based aircraft, even if only to attrit sorties and AAA ammo. Likewise you should have substantial numbers of 2E bombers capable of defending themselves and handing out damage to shipping (Which cannot be well defended given you prior successes)

Do you have a chain of well developed and defended bases which can be your strongpoints and can be reinforced when the line of attack is identified, maybe some transports to fly in an RCT sized reaction force.

Can you rebase some of your SS into the sealanes around possible targets?

Finally, DS seems to be faffing around to little effect, doing a job that LBA should be doing, only takes a lucky SS to take out 2-3 CV and get back all those points you have gained through CV Strat bombing.

IFF the Solomons/Fiji are the target, how do you block his retreat, Torres Strait should be covered by Horn Is & Pt Moresby, this leaves a northerly approach to cover, what would be involved in getting enough (??9-12 CV??) into a blocking position in time to cut them off

Should JIII decide to attack West Oz or elsewhere, there should be similar defences and reactions.

I think your China campaign has gone well, LBA should be carrying the battle and it could be its time to consider changing the approach and catch JIII being too complacent.
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Canoerebel
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Jeff, thank you for some good ideas there. I'll mull them over.

But I hope you won't mind me addressing why your comments about Death Star are way, way, way wrong.

The Allied lead has increased by 7k points in the second half of December. That's by far the biggest half-month gain since the Allies first took the lead back on August 2. This major bump in scoring is attributable mostly to Death Star being parked off the Japanese coast. The Corsair sweeps have cleared the way for some strong B-24J and B-29 strategic bombing raids. That's where the many of the points have come from.

The most effective and efficient thing I can do is keep battering the Home Islands by air and Coastal China by air, land and sea. These areas are proximate = synergistic = efficient. I can win the game from this position.

Now, if John does something truly sexy like invading Fiji with four divisions, I'll have to do some calculations. How many points will he score? Is it most efficient to go and get them back or to gang up on him elsewhere? I won't know until the situation develops.

But I am placing mobile and naval air assets in this area. They are strong but probably not overpowering. Oz has good infantry, so I'm not too concerned about safety there. Noumea and Fiji need a boost. Infantry is on the way but it will take a bit of time to get them there.

Thanks again. You made me think.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, lots of options, and that's the preferred one.

Lowpe long, long ago mentioned that there were so many options opened. This was back about the time I invaded Formosa. He seemed especially interested in a scenario in which a big Allied invasion of Manchuria (and/or Korea) elevated the chances of Soviet activation.

I'm probably still several months away from reaching Manchuria....and I'm trying to end the war as soon as possible now. Strategic bombing is still the bell cow.
I recently counted the Japanese Manchukuo garrison shortly after game start and it was over 14K AV, meaning that a lot can be taken out before there is any chance of Soviet Activation.

But in your game, John pulled all his divisions far forward to deal with Sumatra and then to try and form a wall around the expanded empire.
You smashed a hole in the wall and devastated a lot of divisions - there cannot be much in the way of experienced troops, artillery or tanks left in Manchukuo.

It takes a while after the garrison dips below 8000 for the odds to actually trigger the Soviet Activation. I expect a couple of months after you start attriting the garrison it should happen.
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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Canoerebel
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

That's and interesting look at it.

John's had a heckuva lot of divisions beat up the past few months. If I was really experienced or really attentive, I'd have kept track so that I'd have a good feel for what might still be out there. I didn't do that, but I suspect he must be hurting a bit.

Which makes his strategy in the Hong Kong/Canton sector interesting. He really worked to push troops in there. Did he have sufficient troops to allow that? If not, does that Pocket tie up enough Allied troops to make it worthwhile? (I doubt that, because the Chinese and the air force are going to handle that Pocket while the Western Allied armies continue to move east/north into the north China plains.

"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Lowpe
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


I recently counted the Japanese Manchukuo garrison shortly after game start and it was over 14K AV, meaning that a lot can be taken out before there is any chance of Soviet Activation.

Was that a scenario 2 game...had to be.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Flicker »

CR, thanks for writing a compelling AAR, I really enjoy reading it. I am pleased to see the possibility of Soviet activation but it seems like you may not need it.

I'm curious about Port Blair. By itself it's kinda like Hainan Island, but I see both as patrol stations for larger ports (Rangoon and Hong Kong/Canton).

It seems that pumping loads of supply to Rangoon safely is important to future offensives.

BTW to those concerned by my prior admission to contact with John's AAR, it was to offer best wishes for his health. Else I have only read CR's AAR.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by BBfanboy »

Flicker, folks on this forum are very good at keeping Op Sec, even if they read both AARs, so the assumption is that unless they accidentally post something that gives away some info, any contacts they have are neutral in game terms and positive in forum fellowship.
Your thanks to CR is a good example of what is great about the membership. [:)]
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Port Blair has been a game within a game. You guys might enjoy this.

After taking Rangoon, I was worried about enemy raids (sea, air, KB) against the merchant traffic in and out of Rangoon. I watched PB carefully. There was never a raid nor ever any detection. Eventually it became clear the John had a de Minimis garrison there. However, he still has a base force at one of the other Andamans. He's been waiting for the day I jumped on the weakly garrisoned PB, hoping to strike a blow with bombers.

Recently I began reconning all of the Andamans just to give John something to think about. I think he may have taken the bait and posted KB in the vicinity anticipating an invasion (if you're reading his AAR, you'll know if I'm sniffing glue in this case). John's recent inexplicable carrier foray into the Andaman Sea with LRCAP of Chumphon made me wonder.

I do have a small carrier force in the Bay of Bengal. It can't go up against anything decent. But if the coast becomes clear enough, eventually the Allies will invade PB and the nearby islands. The troops are ready and a modest number of transports are in theater.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


I recently counted the Japanese Manchukuo garrison shortly after game start and it was over 14K AV, meaning that a lot can be taken out before there is any chance of Soviet Activation.

Was that a scenario 2 game...had to be.

I don't think Scen 2 boosts any of the units that start at or arrive in Manchuria.

There may be indirect effects on the garrison level due to the additional units that are available, essentially giving the Japanese more butter to cover the bread, but that's it I think.
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Lowpe
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


I recently counted the Japanese Manchukuo garrison shortly after game start and it was over 14K AV, meaning that a lot can be taken out before there is any chance of Soviet Activation.

Was that a scenario 2 game...had to be.

I don't think Scen 2 boosts any of the units that start at or arrive in Manchuria.

There may be indirect effects on the garrison level due to the additional units that are available, essentially giving the Japanese more butter to cover the bread, but that's it I think.

Looked it up and stock 1 is 11,450.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe




Was that a scenario 2 game...had to be.

I don't think Scen 2 boosts any of the units that start at or arrive in Manchuria.

There may be indirect effects on the garrison level due to the additional units that are available, essentially giving the Japanese more butter to cover the bread, but that's it I think.

Looked it up and stock 1 is 11,450.
However large it was, the main point I was trying to make is that John seems to have moved almost everything forward early on so it won't take much attrition to breach the 8000 AV garrison minimum, but until it is much lower the odds of activation are still small. A few months of effort would be required.
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Crackaces »

The supply situation in my game with an invasion of China was quite insidious. With an escalation of attacks the IJ supply came from areas not involved with the hostilities. My opponent complained That suddenly without warning multiple bases showed yellow then red ! ..I assume the tide of supply is like the Allies where it moves over time overland to where the action is happening.. it takes time to refill bases if they are deplete .. given the amount of clear terrain after Nanking I suspect the Allies will be arriving in the heart of the matter just about the time the IJ might need a lot of supply to sustain operations ...
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
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Lowpe
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

John seems to have moved almost everything forward early on so it won't take much attrition to breach the 8000 AV garrison minimum

SOP, for JFBs...run the garrison down to 8500 as a cushion for withdrawing troops (which does happen). There is one AAR where this did trigger Sov activation early.



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Lowpe
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

The supply situation in my game with an invasion of China was quite insidious. With an escalation of attacks the IJ supply came from areas not involved with the hostilities. My opponent complained That suddenly without warning multiple bases showed yellow then red !

Not only the increase in fighting, but all of sudden the supply lines aren't there anymore, and Japan forces supply off road, thru woods and worse terrain, causing quite a bit of wastage. You really have to pay attention...and still you can't accomplish what you would like.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Kitakami »

Congratulations on reaching 1945. You and your opponent have played a very interesting game (can't comment, reading both AARs), so thank you to both!
Tenno Heika Banzai!
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Crackaces
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Crackaces »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

The supply situation in my game with an invasion of China was quite insidious. With an escalation of attacks the IJ supply came from areas not involved with the hostilities. My opponent complained That suddenly without warning multiple bases showed yellow then red !

Not only the increase in fighting, but all of sudden the supply lines aren't there anymore, and Japan forces supply off road, thru woods and worse terrain, causing quite a bit of wastage. You really have to pay attention...and still you can't accomplish what you would like.

... and the IJ have to shove a lot of supply into the ports to have it propagate into the interior .. if John has not been doing this[ massive supply effort into China] I believe it is too late and a sudden rude collapse is imminent .. I do know when I was fighting in China the collapse was quite sudden and then the IJ could not put up resistance .. every combat marked with (-) supply
I might also add the observation that the Allies have engaged in high firepower lower CV odds fights killing the IJ but not necessary moving them as much or as fast ... the CV calculations change with the worsening supply situation .. ;)
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
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