The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post descriptions of your brilliant victories and unfortunate defeats here.

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Lowpe
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: witpqs
ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I vote with Bullwinkle and think the supply generation should be repaired if damaged. Plus oil and refineries depending upon the total number of refineries available.

You guys are wrong.

On the mainland dispersal will only start to happen when LOCs are established with the Chinese Army.

That is fine. I don't mind being wrong...but I still would repair it.

There is a clear terrain path to Chinese troops now...pretty long, but on roads for awhile...supply could be heading there now once a week.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by paullus99 »

Let John put a blocking force up there - if he wants to bring the fight to you, he has to do it in the open, on your terms, not his.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/14/44

Resources in the Philippines: Looks like 400k+ spread between three bases in the Central PI. Barges will begin transporting that to Legaspi.

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I am using xAKLs to move the resources from central and southern Philippines (Mindanao has some, but you don't have it). The only drawback is use of fuel and your barges will do some of that. I have lots of fuel, not sure if you do.

I think there is a trickle of resources that island-hops over to Luzon and finds its way to Manila. This may depend on the ports "facing each other" one hex distant arrangement. IIRC that setup can cause 50 supply per turn to hop between ports.

As for using supply to repair, I agree with doing it in places that will always have lots of supply coming in from the US/Capetown, but where you are in 1944, with need for speedy advance, IMO you cannot spare the repair supply until you have at least 3 months combat supply on hand. China supply is going to be sucked up by the Chinese, even if you have their units set on "No Replacements", "No Upgrades".

And if, as Lowpe suggests, John is being purposeful with KB, he must be using it to cover redeployment of troops and harvesting of oil/fuel before he is finally shut out of the South China Sea.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by BBfanboy »

Is that a US unit I see three hexes west of Changsha? Nice way to put pressure on the Japanese MLR!
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: witpqs
You guys are wrong. Doing so is very situation dependent.

These two statements are in opposition.

Supply is "destroyed" by use.
No to both. In this situation it's the wrong call, and supply is consumed by use, not destroyed.

All I'm arguing is to secure production right here, with no time lag, where possible, while the supply pile is un-used by combat . . yet.

I wouldn't repair LI in Melbourne. I would in HK.
In Hong Kong you can set supply to stockpile and it will only leave the base to supply units within range. As an aside, that might be what Dan wants at the time. I really doubt that he will have so little transit able to bring supply to the China coast that his units there will starve.

Here is a key point: any supply generated by repaired LI will also be pulled out to nourish nearby Chinese Army units. Bases do not retain any supply in the face of starving LCU calling for supply. At one time they did but they do not any longer. That change was made a long time ago.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
ORIGINAL: witpqs
ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I vote with Bullwinkle and think the supply generation should be repaired if damaged. Plus oil and refineries depending upon the total number of refineries available.

You guys are wrong.

On the mainland dispersal will only start to happen when LOCs are established with the Chinese Army.

That is fine. I don't mind being wrong...but I still would repair it.

There is a clear terrain path to Chinese troops now...pretty long, but on roads for awhile...supply could be heading there now once a week.
Stockpile supply to stop base to base movement. There is no way to stop movement from a base to units that are not in a base (units in a base can only get supply from the base they are in), so even the daily production from LI would flow to most units in need.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Lowpe, I think you've used your own logic against yourself.

You contend that John's play has been militarily beneficial (beyond the VP gaming aspect), but you concede that his play doomed Formosa (through the loss of Orchid Island and Foochow).

That's been my point all along. John is more or less successfully working the VP aspect, at least in the short term. But that's at the expense of the long term. He's done essentially nothing to slow down the Allied advance over the past ten month, beginning with Big Tent in November and continuing through Peep Show in August. I've been able to advance in big steps forward with only modest opposition. And these aren't little Dieppe like raids that don't mean much - these are massive "everything including the kitchen sink" invasions that are self-sustaining for months at a time.

John hung back, looking for opportunities to raid. Even that has been at best minimally effective for him. He did score the four small carriers a month ago. But his KB positions haven't slowed supply flow a bit, yet. That's because I bring supply forward in chunks of 500k, so that the resupply missions are spaced far apart. The LOC situation hasn't served as a break at all. The only break in the action comes about from the need to prep troops. So while troops are prepping, Death Star has the window to escort in supply.

I think nearly every person reading either or both AARs recognizes that John's handling of his defenses has been a fiasco from a military standpoint. He's really gotten himself in a mess.

From a gaming - Victory Point - standpoint, it's harder to tell at the moment. My thinking is - and I think witpqs just expressed this well - that eventually the military situation will bleed over into the VP ratio. If the Allies keep advancing, John's House of VP Cards is going to collapse at some point.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My comments about John focusing on Victory Points were not a criticism of his strategy. This is a game and the VP system is there for a reason. It works. I like the VP system and the way it provides the Japanese player with a fun way to work the end game. If I were a JFB, I'd work VP hard, twisting reality into all kinds of knots while working the system.

I suspect that John is not by nature a VP guy. We know he's a Navy man by preference, and I suspect that simulating real war Japanese doctrine (albeit, beefed up by mods and bolstered by house rules) is psychologically important to him. Ordinarily, I think he'd have attacked by now, in keeping with the Bushido Code. I suspect that he hasn't done so partly in response to some excellent tutelage by smart Forumites urging him to work the VP system hard. John has responded, and the current score is a testament to how competitive VPs can make the game.

But I think John has backed so far away from his natural tendencies that it's affecting his enjoyment of the game. His VP-productive carrier raid in SoPac while Death Star was in the East China Sea was an example. And the current position of KB in the DEI, while the Allies have been invading coastal China and shutting down Formosa's airfields, is another good example. There are good VP reasons for doing what he's doing, but militarily he's contorted himself into a painful and dangerous position.

Things can still change. There's a chance of a major action in the DEI in the next day or two that could help him a lot. But if the Allied carriers and supply TFs do link up with Death Star in two or three days, what does John do then? Does he keep working the VP angle, with KB steaming around the DEI looking for something to hit while the Allies reduce Formosa to ruins? Will he be satisfied working the VP angle, or at some point does he give in to the historic Japanese ethic? I'm guessing the latter.

I dunno. I think VP considerations skew the end game and as I have said before there should be a final objective (Tokyo) before a certain time or all VP go out the window. This will give the Japanese player another option-that is an all out defense of the HI with no regard for his losses (hey, isn't that exactly what they were planning to do?) Now, it is kind of absurd. It is like he is in a chess game and trying to run around the board snapping up your pawns while your queen is sitting next to his king. Oh wait! I can't use that analogy in this AAR because I have already used the queen sacrifice analogy to explain your foray into Sumatra. You no longer have your queen...[&o]

I didn't like thinking about VPs until I played into 45 as Japan. Then it suddenly made all kinds of sense. If the Allies are extending themselves so far as to allow the Japanese to make CV raids in So Pac (which would have caused major political and civilian backlash in reality) this is the game's way of allowing the Japanese player to prove an Allied overextension. Otherwise why not just never do anything until June 44, then sail the complete Deathstar and following armada of amphibs at Hokkaido, Formosa or any number of game ending targets and then set up B-29 bases to end the war by Jan 45?

VPs keep both sides honest and allow the subtitles of the game to be used and appreciated. As a Japanese player it's the only thing you live for. Otherwise even the good days of kami strikes and sunk CVEs suck when 8 divisions are unloading at Moppo. You have to be able to take enough of a VP tithe that some moves, however successful strategically, still have such a cost they prolong the war.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

If I understand the helpful info from Bullwinkle, the 45k+ resources at Manila will yield about 3k supply. So the 450k+ resources in the central Philippines is good for about 30k supply, once transported to Manila. And it will take about 11 months for Manila's Light Industry to accomplish that.

In other words, the war will be over by the time I can use the resources in the Philippines. And 33k supply total of 11 months is a minimal amount anyway. Five Liberty Ships (6500 supply) worth. Every little bit helps, but such quantities don't mean much.

There may be other Light Industry locations (Hong Kong) that help out too.

But I think the traditional ol' transport system (my long, narrow LOC) will handle the vast majority of the supply.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

8/14/44

Soerabaja: 218 bombers based here suddenly; probably for a night bombing mission.

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"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by MakeeLearn »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If I understand the helpful info from Bullwinkle, the 45k+ resources at Manila will yield about 3k supply. So the 450k+ resources in the central Philippines is good for about 30k supply, once transported to Manila. And it will take about 11 months for Manila's Light Industry to accomplish that.

In other words, the war will be over by the time I can use the resources in the Philippines. And 33k supply total of 11 months is a minimal amount anyway. Five Liberty Ships (6500 supply) worth. Every little bit helps, but such quantities don't mean much.

There may be other Light Industry locations (Hong Kong) that help out too.

But I think the traditional ol' transport system (my long, narrow LOC) will handle the vast majority of the supply.



Have more war bond drives... hmmm... a (ESOP) an employee stock ownership plan...

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by MakeeLearn »

Or in other words "NEEDS NOW" vs "NEEDS FEW-CHER".

AND

"WHAT YOU HAVE TO LET GO NOW" vs "FEW-CHER RETURN"






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

"For every Southern boy fourteen years old, not once but whenever he wants it, there is the instant when it's still not yet two o'clock on that July afternoon in 1863, the brigades are in position behind the rail fence, the guns are laid and ready in the woods and the furled flags are already loosened to break out and Pickett himself with his long oiled ringlets and his hat in one hand probably and his sword in the other looking up the hill waiting for Longstreet to give the word and it's all in the balance, it hasn't happened yet, it hasn't even begun yet, it not only hasn't begun yet but there is still time for it not to begin against that position and those circumstances which made more men than Garnett and Kemper and Armistead and Wilcox look grave yet it's going to begin, we all know that, we have come too far with too much at stake and that moment doesn't need even a fourteen-year-old boy to think This time. Maybe this time with all this much to lose than all this much to gain: Pennsylvania, Maryland, the world, the golden dome of Washington itself to crown with desperate and unbelievable victory the desperate gamble, the cast made two years ago; or to anyone who ever sailed a skiff under a quilt sail, the moment in 1492 when somebody thought This is it: the absolute edge of no return, to turn back now and make home or sail irrevocably on and either find land or plunge over the world's roaring rim.”

¯ William Faulkner, Intruder in the Dust
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

8/14/44

DEI: My plans for tomorrow, based upon what I think KB is most likely to do.

It looks like you gents are right: that John will indeed keep KB in the DEI. In as little as three days, a fully refueled Death Star will be ready to accompany supply and troop ships back north.

At the moment, John may think - he may hope - that DS is on a mission to chase KB and give battle.

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Lowpe
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Lowpe, I think you've used your own logic against yourself.

You contend that John's play has been militarily beneficial (beyond the VP gaming aspect), but you concede that his play doomed Formosa (through the loss of Orchid Island and Foochow).

No, I most certainly did not contend the John's play has been militarily beneficial. I said there were other reasons equal or even more compelling than the VP angle to explain John's current play. And somebody just recently added another reason.

I withheld judgement on the effectiveness of his current strategy.

However, I do think he is handling the end game well for a first timer. That there will be mistakes, like not garrisoning Orchid Island, will of course happen...and you were quick enough to grab it. The same could be said for the paradrops in Indochina, Vietnam and most recently China.

To recap: his economy is intact; he has a potent kb; he has a nice VP cushion. Very few Japanese games are this way in August of 1944 -- especially true for a scenario 1 game (albeit with a greatly augmented IJN). I also think he has done a decent job of wearing down your top line fighters.

Now if you can leverage your deep position into autovictory by Jan 1, 1945...then I will say you have won a great victory. So then the question is how long can John survive into 1945?

Now, victory is a nebulous thing in this game...and IF the game lasts past Jan 1, 45 then I suspect both sides will claim victory and both sides have compelling justifications and John's current tactics may very well be militarily justified.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lowpe »

Does Japan have detection on the mini deathstar and big deathstar?
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

He doesn't have a VP cushion. The Good Guys lead by a thousand points. :)

He's not a first timer. He's a veteran, though far more experienced in the first years of the war. He probably has a good deal more experience overall. He's played deep into a game at least once before...back in WitP days, when he and I played into late '44.

I don't expect to achieve auto victory by January 1. But probably sometime in the spring of '45.

He has detection on both Allied carrier TFs.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He doesn't have a VP cushion. The Good Guys lead by a thousand points. :)

See, to me at this stage that is a VP cushion. At this point in my game versus Tiemanj, for example, it was better than 2-1.[:D]
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by crsutton »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Shelby Foote was the historian who wrote something to this effect: "For every southern boy, there comes a day when it's noon on July 3, 1863."

I think in "The Civil War" he quoted that line and said it was Faulkner who originated. From memory.

Spot on. From "Intruder in the Dust" CR laments that young people today don't know about Pickett's Charge and it is true. But then again, I don't think many young people read Faulker either. That is even more of a tragedy.

"For every Southern boy fourteen years old, not once but whenever he wants it, there is the instant when it's still not yet two oclock on that July afternoon in 1863, the brigades are in position behind the rail fence, the guns are laid and ready in the woods and the furled flags are already loosened to break out and Pickett himself with his long oiled ringlets and his hat in one hand probably and his sword in the other looking up the hill waiting for Longstreet to give the word and it's all in the balance, it hasn't happened yet, it hasn't even begun yet, it not only hasn't begun yet but there is stll time for it not to begin against that position and those circumstances which made more men than Garnett and Kemper and Armstead and Wilcox look grave yet it's going to begin, we all know that, we have come too far with too much at stake and that moment doesn't need even a fourteen-year-old boy to think This time. Maybe this time with all this much to lose and all this much to gain: Pennsylvania, Maryland, the world, the golden dome of Washington itself to crown with desperate and unbelievable victory the desperate gamble, the cast made two years ago...."

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by crsutton »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

"For every Southern boy fourteen years old, not once but whenever he wants it, there is the instant when it's still not yet two o'clock on that July afternoon in 1863, the brigades are in position behind the rail fence, the guns are laid and ready in the woods and the furled flags are already loosened to break out and Pickett himself with his long oiled ringlets and his hat in one hand probably and his sword in the other looking up the hill waiting for Longstreet to give the word and it's all in the balance, it hasn't happened yet, it hasn't even begun yet, it not only hasn't begun yet but there is still time for it not to begin against that position and those circumstances which made more men than Garnett and Kemper and Armistead and Wilcox look grave yet it's going to begin, we all know that, we have come too far with too much at stake and that moment doesn't need even a fourteen-year-old boy to think This time. Maybe this time with all this much to lose than all this much to gain: Pennsylvania, Maryland, the world, the golden dome of Washington itself to crown with desperate and unbelievable victory the desperate gamble, the cast made two years ago; or to anyone who ever sailed a skiff under a quilt sail, the moment in 1492 when somebody thought This is it: the absolute edge of no return, to turn back now and make home or sail irrevocably on and either find land or plunge over the world's roaring rim.”

¯ William Faulkner, Intruder in the Dust

Damn! I really should read everything before I post.[8|]
I am the Holy Roman Emperor and am above grammar.

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