The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post descriptions of your brilliant victories and unfortunate defeats here.

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Lowpe
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lowpe »

BB, I stand corrected. Many thanks![&o]
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


A few players have posited that John is in good shape economically due to the lack of attrition to his merchant fleet.

That doesn't make sense to me. Japan has so much merchant shipping. Even the Tanker fleet can take a beating and still be more than sufficient.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by MakeeLearn »

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Fuel: 1 years stockpile plus. That is greater than 3 million in a scenario 2 game. You should not run out of fuel, as it cannot be destroyed except by spoilage (once stored); and you have great control over how much of it you use. However, most JFB's will run short eventually and obviously much more difficult in a scenario 1 game.
I disagree with the highlighted statement - I am pretty sure I have seen "port fuel hits" results during bombardments.

EDIT: Found an example in my current game:





I just got "port fuel hits" from Jap planes bombing me.






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Formosa may or may not be involved in Peep Show. The operation has morphed a bit, due to opportunities as Fun House developed and its endgame became clear. As a result, I identified new targets and switched preps (mostly from Manila) to new targets several weeks ago. Most of my beachhead assault divisions are now about 40% prepped. The one division that is 100% prepped is targeting the original Peep Show beachhead, which is still a possibility or probability.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


A few players have posited that John is in good shape economically due to the lack of attrition to his merchant fleet.

That doesn't make sense to me. Japan has so much merchant shipping. Even the Tanker fleet can take a beating and still be more than sufficient.

I don't mean that John is running short on merchant shipping (I always assume that's almost unlimited, like Japanese fighter planes). Rather, I mean that the Allies have sunk a lot of merchant shipping during the war. I assume that a reasonable amount of fuel and supply went down with those ships, so that there has been an economic impact on Japan. But, as I said above, that's all rather amorphous and hard, from my seat, to quantify.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Encircled
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Encircled »

Does this mod have more fuel and supplies for the Japanese?

If not, then he's got to be hurting for fuel, which might explain why he's got so many of his remaining capital ships in the fuel well off DEI.

Course, that wouldn't explain his recent actions in SWPAC!
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Does this mod have more fuel and supplies for the Japanese?

If not, then he's got to be hurting for fuel, which might explain why he's got so many of his remaining capital ships in the fuel well off DEI.

Course, that wouldn't explain his recent actions in SWPAC!
Some urges cannot be suppressed! For John III, striking something valuable but relatively helpless with his carriers is irresistible, but it may come back to haunt him!

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ushakov
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by ushakov »

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Some urges cannot be suppressed! For John III, striking something valuable but relatively helpless with his carriers is irresistible, but it may come back to haunt him!
Thinking back on what CR said about getting to play on into 1944 and 45 being a fun new experience for him, I do wonder if John is finding the opposite.

I don't recall any of John's games going beyond mid-43 before, and for someone who's never happier than when he's planning bold offensives, or more motivated than when he's posting detailed accounts of Long Lances SLAMMING into Allied ships, or Yamato's shells POUNDING them (insert multiple Banzais here), I can't help think that he must be finding the meat of the late-war Japanese game - which as Lowpe and others have pointed out is largely about turtling up and extracting what price you can from a series of defeats - to be something of a downer.

Some of the recent developments - John's unwillingness to combine his ships or face-off against Death Star, his strange force compositions in places like Manila, and now this raid - make me wonder if perhaps he's resigned to the main Allied thrust as an inevitable, unstoppable force, and is neglecting a little the parts of the game he finds unappealing (like defensive land war) in favour of pouring his energies into those that enthuse him, like securing tactical naval victories and accelerating his aircraft R&D. Which in turn makes me think that maybe CR might soon be in for some comparatively cheap conquests, if he can get his troops ashore.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Those are good points, some of which have been discussed before. This is what I think of John, his style of play and his current morale.

John is a Navy Guy, as we've said so often before. He's wired for that part of the game above all else. He really enjoys it and is a rollicking, fun opponent. He's capable of doing other things - the economy, the air war (he's pretty good at that, I think), and to an extent the ground war - but sometimes those may languish due to real life, and especially when he's playing multiple games, finding his attention naturally focused on the one in which his navy has all the momentum and then focusing on the navy at the expense of things he doesn't enjoy as much.

His defenses of Burma and Luzon were mishandled, but he's probably learning from those experiences. And his recent handling of his carriers, while counterproductive in some ways (IMO), has complicated my life in other ways, so the jury is still out on how that plays out.

He's intimated in some of his emails that it's hopeless to go up against Death Star. At times, he's probably mentally "given up" the idea of opposing DS for some stretches, just going through the motions, but occasionally re-engaging when he has an idea or a success, as is now the case. He probably isn't aware of the things he can do to slow me down or nip at my heals and strike at the edges, but I suspect his AAR readers are helping him a lot. I think he's listening and applying. And I know eventually he'll orchestrate a massed attack involving kamikazes. That's inevitable.

John has played far into a game at least once, against me in WitP back around '07 or so. We reached late '44, with the Allies at Hokkaido in strength, before we mutually called it a game. We were both involved in other games and ignorantly thought our game was "over," with nothing interesting left to experience. That was naïve. So he doesn't have a great deal of experience in the endgame and probably isn't mentally configured to enjoy that nearly as much. But he may learn to, before it's all over.

He has done a commendable job in sticking with the game. For long stretches it can't have been pleasant for him (dozens of heavy bombings every day, forever and forever), but almost every day a turn arrives. I really appreciate the way he's handle himself.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

7/7/44

Fun House: Allied divisions have closed with scattered elements of the Japanese army in Luzon, or will do so tomorrow.

Peep Show: Death Star remains on station north of Luzon, in good order.

SoPac: Stricken Hermes slipped beneath the waves at Efate, early enough to avoid a KB port strike later in the day (John is probably scratching his head). No other damage done today. I have one damaged CL still in harm's way, but all other Allied shipping seems out of danger.



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"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by paullus99 »

So, it looks like the "Mini-KB" is going to be stuck in the DEI / Singers for the duration. I can't see how he's going to get those ships back to the HIs, given your present position.

That removes quite the obstacle.
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Lowpe
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lowpe »

Did Japan sweep and bomb Orchid Island?

Have you thought of a strategy for clearing out the riff raff?

I can't see the mini-kb at Singers as a great move. I always got scared if the Allies had detection for more than 2 days in a row, because I figured by the third day everything would be sunk.[:D]

Victory points to the right. Victory points to the left. Victory points everywhere! But what move will shorten the war?

It is hard for me to see why you aren't shore bombarding with something along the Luzon coast line? Economy of force, perhaps?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

ORIGINAL: paullus99

So, it looks like the "Mini-KB" is going to be stuck in the DEI / Singers for the duration. I can't see how he's going to get those ships back to the HIs, given your present position.

That removes quite the obstacle.

Mini KB isn't isolated yet. If Death Star is committed to escort duties of an invasion force, or otherwise moves to one side or the other, John has routes to slip Mini KB by the "blockade." When Peep Show gets underway in a few weeks, he'll have a nice window. But if Peep Show is successful, one of his two vectors of egress may close or become very dicey. So he'll be feeling pressure to extract his carriers from the bag before it closes, if he isn't already.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Did Japan sweep and bomb Orchid Island? Thus far John hasn't done anything as far as Orchid is concerned.

Have you thought of a strategy for clearing out the riff raff? Yes, mainly involving DE or DD TFs, with PTs available once I have Aparri, Laog or Vigan.

I can't see the mini-kb at Singers as a great move. I always got scared if the Allies had detection for more than 2 days in a row, because I figured by the third day everything would be sunk.[:D]

Victory points to the right. Victory points to the left. Victory points everywhere! But what move will shorten the war? Peep Show is a significant step in and of itself, and any move that prompts John to engage in a carrier battle too. But the most important thing is to close on Japan.

It is hard for me to see why you aren't shore bombarding with something along the Luzon coast line? Economy of force, perhaps? The Japanese garrisons on the coast are toast. They are all battered beyond belief. Bombardment TFs aren't necessary, so I don't want to risk capital ships on unnecessary missions where enemy subs and LBA could be an issue. For Peep Show, yes. For Fun House, no (unless Bataan proves to be a booger).


"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by MakeeLearn »

Sea-wise, close to being a Eastern Imperial Japanese Empire and a Western Imperial Japanese Empire






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Lowpe
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
ORIGINAL: Lowpe

It is hard for me to see why you aren't shore bombarding with something along the Luzon coast line? Economy of force, perhaps? The Japanese garrisons on the coast are toast. They are all battered beyond belief. Bombardment TFs aren't necessary, so I don't want to risk capital ships on unnecessary missions where enemy subs and LBA could be an issue. For Peep Show, yes. For Fun House, no (unless Bataan proves to be a booger).



Yes, but aren't the airfields potentially dangerous? If there was supply, I wouldn't hesitate to fill them up with SR1 planes for some type of ambush for example. I can think of other uses of the runways too.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

John is low on supply and several of the airfields are heavily damaged. Any sign of enemy air presence will result in massive bombings. I've intentionally left Aparri partly damaged (30%) in hopes that John will bring in a lot of stuff. He can't rail out of there, so any damaged planes will be toast.

He can evacuate cadres by air. I've used LRCAP over Bataan to down a bunch of Tabbies (I think), so he stopped that. He might be pulling some out of the other bases but I don't think it's enough to warrant risking combat ships on low-value (IMO) bombardment missions. I'll need those ships for Peep Show, so risking them for low returns as Fun House winds up is potentially counterproductive.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Mike Dubost »

I think those of you who are comparing the SWPac carrier raid to Stuart and Gettysburg and wondering what John is thinking may be missing a more obvious US Civil War analogy.

I think it is much closer to Hood’s response to the March to the Sea. Consider a plausible view from Tokyo. CR has launched a major force into the Philippines, leaving behind him a long SLOC, which likely has vulnerable merchant shipping. Like Hood, John can (in this view) raid the LOC, and raise Cain in the rear. Like Hood, he may hope to draw large forces off the front to deal with his KB.
Given that analogy, can you predict or track his movements? If so, do you have enough available air units to give him his own aerial Battle of Franklin? If so, is it worth the opportunity cost of what else you could be doing with that air?

NOTE, for the benefit of those less familiar with the US Civil War, this is a reference to the events of late 1864.
Having taken Atlanta, Union general William Tecumseh Sherman cut loose from his lines of communication, and took a large force through the state of Georgia to the coast, living off the country. During this March to the Sea, he faced limited and ineffective opposition, in part because of the actions of his Confederate counterpart.
John Bell Hood decided not to use his smaller force directly against Sherman’s troops. Instead, he marched north. His idea was to disrupt Sherman’s LOC, and create trouble in the rear. In the best case, he could even re-take Nashville, and maybe force Sherman or Sherman’s superiors to decide Sherman’s army needed to go back to fight his forces in Tennessee.

A few problems with this idea: 1) as mentioned, Sherman had no LOC 2) Sherman left significant forces behind.
As Hood marched north, he decided to attack a force of Union troops that had temporarily paused in their retreat in the town of Franklin. Hood’s attack decimated his army. The Union forces resumed their retreat to join the main force in Nashville, so Hood had possession of the battlefield. Technically, this made it a Confederate victory, but given the high price and the fact that the Union forces were falling back anyway, it was at best a Pyrrhic victory.
Later, George Thomas routed Hood from Hood's positions around Nashville, and left Hood's army near totally combat ineffective for a time.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Hood's Tennessee campaign is a great analogy. But to complete the analogy, John would have to commit KB against a hardened target like Sydney or Townsville. There I have enough air power to make him pay.

My judgement is that he'll retire the way he came, probably refuel at Truk or Saipan, and rejoin KB around Iwo. I'm vectoring subs to the Truk and Marianas, but that's pretty much a crap shoot.

I wondered whether he might force the Torres Strait to join Mini KB, but the current course suggests not.

P.S. Does anyone here, without looking it up, have the slightest idea how Hood's Army of Tennessee ended up in North Carolina in April 1865 after being torn to pieces at Nashville five months earlier? I wondered about that eight or ten years ago, so researched it. Just one of those obscure chapters in history that never makes the history books or the books, so it was fun to dig and find out.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Mike Dubost »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hood's Tennessee campaign is a great analogy. But to complete the analogy, John would have to commit KB against a hardened target like Sydney or Townsville. There I have enough air power to make him pay.

My judgement is that he'll retire the way he came, probably refuel at Truk or Saipan, and rejoin KB around Iwo. I'm vectoring subs to the Truk and Marianas, but that's pretty much a crap shoot.

I wondered whether he might force the Torres Strait to join Mini KB, but the current course suggests not.

P.S. Does anyone here, without looking it up, have the slightest idea how Hood's Army of Tennessee ended up in North Carolina in April 1865 after being torn to pieces at Nashville five months earlier? I wondered about that eight or ten years ago, so researched it. Just one of those obscure chapters in history that never makes the history books or the books, so it was fun to dig and find out.


Yep, John would have to attack a target he had no business going after. I was wondering if you could try to set a trap to entice him to do just that. Of course, that would come with an opportunity cost, so it may not be worth it.

As for the route that the Army of Tennessee took, I'm not sure, but I have a vague recollection of reading that they went through East Tennessee, and maybe through southern Virginia. The memory is vague enough that I would not bet more than a nickel on it.
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