TOP SECRET ORM + WARSPITE ONLY (Reverse AAR)

[Courtenay]

The reasons to make the second loss a 7 point INF instead of 5 point MOT is that the INF is cheaper to replace, and the MOT might be needed to take the first loss on some later blitz attack, in addition to the fact that the attack will be very slightly stronger with the 7 point unit attacking.

[brian brian]

If you have an extra MIL or division able to move to Rotterdam, you could do a classic 'soak-off' attack (suicide) on Antwerp to keep the ART from supporting Brussels. Maybe with your prelim odds calculation, you've already figured that...

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

The reasons to make the second loss a 7 point INF instead of 5 point MOT is that the INF is cheaper to replace, and the MOT might be needed to take the first loss on some later blitz attack, in addition to the fact that the attack will be very slightly stronger with the 7 point unit attacking.

warspite1

Well if the 5-4 was a MOT and not an INF that might be the case. However the 5-4 is an INF [;)]

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

If you have an extra MIL or division able to move to Rotterdam, you could do a classic 'soak-off' attack (suicide) on Antwerp to keep the ART from supporting Brussels. Maybe with your prelim odds calculation, you've already figured that...

warspite1

I have yet to throw above a 5 in Land Combat - my last 5 throws have been 22232. There is a 40% chance of losing two units (even with a +2). I can safely say I have not given that attack a moment's consideration [:D]

[warspite1]

So I could get the following line up

Rotterdam - 6-3 INF, 1-5 MOT
Hex SE - 4-2 ART, 7-2 MIL, 8-4 MOT
Liege - 1-4 ENG, 9-4 INF, 7-4 INF (or 8-5 ARM)*
Hex SW - 3-3 ART (or 3-3 AA)**, 8-6 MECH***, 7-4 INF

*I was thinking remove the ARM for cheaper reorganisation?

**A good unit to lose but if it provides additional protection against their bombers AND can be used in land combat, then probably worth it.

***I wanted a MECH SW of Brussels in case of a counter attack.

[warspite1]

As for Tunis, I'd leave it until the TRS have been committed.

The ATR of the MTN is risky - the CW can get two fighters to our one. One lucky hit and the ATR and MTN die.... I would advise against.

I think the NAV should be on hand for the Italian Coast.

All very boring and defensive I know, but I have no confidence in anything at the moment.....

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

So I could get the following line up

Rotterdam - 6-3 INF, 1-5 MOT
Hex SE - 4-2 ART, 7-2 MIL, 8-4 MOT
Liege - 1-4 ENG, 9-4 INF, 7-4 INF (or 8-5 ARM)*
Hex SW - 3-3 ART (or 3-3 AA)**, 8-6 MECH***, 7-4 INF

*I was thinking remove the ARM for cheaper reorganisation?

**A good unit to lose but if it provides additional protection against their bombers AND can be used in land combat, then probably worth it.

***I wanted a MECH SW of Brussels in case of a counter attack.

A couple of ponderings.

1) The 3-3 AA is one of the best units when it comes to attacking armour and it is not all that cheap to build so I think it is a bad lose unit.

2) I do not think armour is more expensive to reorganize. We should be playing without the variable reorganization option, but I am not able, at the moment, to check if that is actually the case.

3) If you can get the 7-2 MIL into the attack then that is good. It is a perfect loss unit. Both good, cheap, and fast to rebuild.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

The reasons to make the second loss a 7 point INF instead of 5 point MOT is that the INF is cheaper to replace, and the MOT might be needed to take the first loss on some later blitz attack, in addition to the fact that the attack will be very slightly stronger with the 7 point unit attacking.

We play with the 1d10 table so there will never be a forced loss on a blitz attack.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

As for Tunis, I'd leave it until the TRS have been committed.

The ATR of the MTN is risky - the CW can get two fighters to our one. One lucky hit and the ATR and MTN die.... I would advise against.

I think the NAV should be on hand for the Italian Coast.

All very boring and defensive I know, but I have no confidence in anything at the moment.....

[&o]

Thank you. [:)]

[peskpesk]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: brian brian

If you have an extra MIL or division able to move to Rotterdam, you could do a classic 'soak-off' attack (suicide) on Antwerp to keep the ART from supporting Brussels. Maybe with your prelim odds calculation, you've already figured that...

warspite1

I have yet to throw above a 5 in Land Combat - my last 5 throws have been 22232. There is a 40% chance of losing two units (even with a +2). I can safely say I have not given that attack a moment's consideration [:D]

I think this is a good soak-off. There are two fliped allied units there right? Then do it! Big gain if it pulls off, even if not you have a fair chance to take a unit with you. What if you roll a 10?!

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: peskpesk

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: brian brian

If you have an extra MIL or division able to move to Rotterdam, you could do a classic 'soak-off' attack (suicide) on Antwerp to keep the ART from supporting Brussels. Maybe with your prelim odds calculation, you've already figured that...

warspite1

I have yet to throw above a 5 in Land Combat - my last 5 throws have been 22232. There is a 40% chance of losing two units (even with a +2). I can safely say I have not given that attack a moment's consideration [:D]

I think this is a good soak-off. There are two fliped allied units there right? Then do it! Big gain if it pulls off, even if not you have a descent chance to take a unit with you.

I looked at it but the odds are appalling. Even with the +2 it seems like to be a expensive result. The likely odds is 7:12 before any support and with defensive shore bombardment it is 7:24 and I doubt that Axis has any offensive air available. Very likely that Axis just lose two units. I recommend against it.

[brian brian]

I would trade a 1.5 BP division for 3 defense factors in Brussels any day of the week. 11 or 14 defense factors could make the difference on a middling roll of 4-6 via swinging the the fractional roll significantly.

[warspite1]

Got your message - hope all is okay. I tried responding on e-mail but it bounced back.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: warspite1

So I could get the following line up

Rotterdam - 6-3 INF, 1-5 MOT
Hex SE - 4-2 ART, 7-2 MIL, 8-4 MOT
Liege - 1-4 ENG, 9-4 INF, 7-4 INF (or 8-5 ARM)*
Hex SW - 3-3 ART (or 3-3 AA)**, 8-6 MECH***, 7-4 INF

*I was thinking remove the ARM for cheaper reorganisation?

**A good unit to lose but if it provides additional protection against their bombers AND can be used in land combat, then probably worth it.

***I wanted a MECH SW of Brussels in case of a counter attack.

A couple of ponderings.

1) The 3-3 AA is one of the best units when it comes to attacking armour and it is not all that cheap to build so I think it is a bad lose unit.

wrspite1

It wouldn't be a 'lose' unit though - unless the French counter-attack successfully (always possible). The 'lose' units are the ENG and the MIL.

The reorganisation cost is 1 for ARM too.

[brian brian]

I think you are going to take the hex this time regardless of approach, you are due. If the Allies counter-attack, be grateful. The Axis make the best progress after early Allied attacks.

[warspite1]

Well that's put the kybosh on that then - I think that is what's called tempting fate [X(][:-][&:]

[Courtenay]

Just don't use the d3 again!

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

Just don't use the d3 again!

Right. [:D]

Better to use the 1d2+8 instead.

[Orm]

Now that we have a updated plan of action I suggest you make the changes you think is best and then mail me a new save for the Italian and Japanese movement. Does this sound ok?

[warspite1]

I have returned the game.

As and when you are ready to do the German combat please send back so I can do the Germans.