Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

[Gunnulf]

231 Bde scampers back towards the ports! Hopefully will regret (a very little bit admittedly) trying to hold that line on a shoestring. Totally unnecessary when he has so many divisions at hand and he'll have to bring one back now, so one less for the invasion. Small victory, no real chance for a follow up at this point, though if this was in a couple of turns I might have sent some recce to see if everybody else left already and there might have been a bigger opportunity. But he would also have been better dug in. The 1 VP gained from the 625 casulaties is 5mins of bombing points but it tastes sweet.

[Gunnulf]

ORIGINAL: Helpless

What is current VP status?

Here is the tally. Unless (unlikely) I keep him off the mainland then I suspect this is heading towards a major allied victory. QBall is a savvy operator and has everything pretty locked down, bar the odd chink I have found.

I used the JG300 groups early on a bit over Essen, they seemed to add into the mix ok, but they couldn't run day and night. The number of raids seemed to run up fatigue pretty fast. Now I am so short of day fighters I can't spare them for that role. In other games for sure I have used them to do the proper Wilde Sau role. I tried night intruder a bit early on but zero kills. Maybe I wasn't utilising it enough, or maybe not setting up right.

[Helpless]

I tried night intruder a bit early on but zero kills. Maybe I wasn't utilising it enough, or maybe not setting up right.

Good recon data on enemy AF is very important pre-requisite for the night intruder mission.

[Gunnulf]

Aha, that makes sense. We were flying over using maps from Sept 1940. There are a lot of new airfields been built since then. I'll have another experiment soon, hopefully we don't lose too more recon pilots than we shoot down

[Gunnulf]

Turn 12 - 18 Sep '43

Invasion count - 0
Weather - Rain, but forecast clear next week
Interesting recon - plenty
Axis - DE IT HU RO BG FI

So, its wet down south which might be delaying him, or maybe its taken longer for him to re-target his preparations than I thought. Or maybe he wants to finish Sardinia before he launches to have those last closer airbases. But too much longer and we are into October with higher chance of worse weather. Not that it will stop him but its a consideration.
This is the first time I've seen him a) do recon on places other than the railyards and airfields he is bombing, but now he looks to be poking around the Rome area and the tip of the boot, and 1 hex in the SE of Corsica which is clearly exactly where I've always suspected he will land here b) do significant interdiction, but now doing some at the tip of the boot. Makes me think he is about to do something that he thinks will make me want to leave Sicily
Also his naval patrols drop right off, except some weird new light naval patrols with 10 Wellingtons north of Bari. I'm sure that will make sense soon, but otherwise I conclude everything that he wants to be shipping around is already in place, and he is resting his air. When it comes I suspect we'll see concurrent invasions in Corsica and Anzio but now I'm wondering whether he spares 1 or 2 TF for the Bari or Brindisi area to mop up down here. He's already shown he is happy to spread out, and if he gets ashore he certainly is not short of divisions to pump in to follow up.

[Gunnulf]

Sicily,

Unperturbed he orders a weakened 231 Bde back into the line at 1CV strength. Maybe everybody else already left...

Sardinia

Bit of the breakthrough in the centre, as expected. We have a last defensible (well, clearly it won't hold but you know what I mean) line of of rough terrain outside Olbia. This will fall this week, latest next and our work here is done. Once Sardinia is gone then we will no doubt trigger an Italian surrender roll. Holding out until nearly the end of September was about all we could hope for I think. Better than giving him this unsinkable aircraft carrier in July. I might be able to sneak out a regiment or 2. Other than 90 PzGn no division was fully committed and there remains a cadre to build around on the mainland in the future. Was it worth it? I'd be interested to hear opinions. Mixed emotions myself, but of course it really depends what happens next.

Reich

QBall reaches his 20VP per turn already from bombing. The usual from Bomber command in the Ruhr, and 8th AF hits Stuttgart, Nuremburg, Regensberg, Schweinfurt. This is 8th Air force on the rampage now really, certainly not licking its wounds and switching to France any time soon.
Losses for him pretty negligible; 7 x B17, 14 x B24, 11 x Lancaster 15 x Halifax 5 x P38 2 x P47. Ours 73 x Bf109 8 x Bf110 19 x Fw190. We haven't used any replacements other than trained pilots and numbers looking pretty pathetic now I think.

[EddyBear81]

I am a big supporter of fighting on the islands: my goal for 1943 is to de-rail the WA timetable, in order to prevent an early fall of Rome.
I want to be able to force a wintertime naval invasion which always proves difficult (see: Anzio). So I am not letting anything for free. The cost of this strategy is a few "stay behind" divisions (although I prefer to commit Inf Divs rather than Pz/PzG), and I am convinced it is worth it.

Regarding the Air War, I have a question to fellow gamers: how do you use the Bf-109-G6 ?
Their performance is almost always appalling (73 losses in your turn Gunnulf... and for very little WA planes shot down !), and I have been struggling to use them in a efficient way.
Do you fly "slick" or with 20mm cannons add-on ? Are AS directives part of the solution (I have tried different altitudes, but nothing seems to work) ? Or are they just crap to be used as second line fighters against sea lanes or as FBs in Italy ?

[Gunnulf]

Losses

I've been meaning to do this for a while, I have another Axis game running, a little bit further along in early Nov43. I used similar tactics with much better effect. My opponent used a more historic strategy of large raids. He's a good opponent, certainly experienced. Pulling in a respectable 12VP a turn from bombing. But look at the difference in his bomber losses. Its 7 turns further along but I really don't expect I'll have downed, for example, 650 of QBalls B17's by the time we reach November. But crucially in this other game I have nearly double the number of fighter crews available in the Reich in November as I do in Sept in QBalls game. I have clearly been royally raped here in very short time. In both I avoided getting into dogfights with Fighter command over Essen, both have brought P38s to NW Europe. But the micro-raids seems to have been the major difference.

[Gunnulf]

ORIGINAL: EddyBear81

I am a big supporter of fighting on the islands: my goal for 1943 is to de-rail the WA timetable, in order to prevent an early fall of Rome.
I want to be able to force a wintertime naval invasion which always proves difficult (see: Anzio). So I am not letting anything for free. The cost of this strategy is a few "stay behind" divisions (although I prefer to commit Inf Divs rather than Pz/PzG), and I am convinced it is worth it.

Regarding the Air War, I have a question to fellow gamers: how do you use the Bf-109-G6 ?
Their performance is almost always appalling (73 losses in your turn Gunnulf... and for very little WA planes shot down !), and I have been struggling to use them in a efficient way.
Do you fly "slick" or with 20mm cannons add-on ? Are AS directives part of the solution (I have tried different altitudes, but nothing seems to work) ? Or are they just crap to be used as second line fighters against sea lanes or as FBs in Italy ?

I tend to agree obviously. Its a bit harder when the Allies turn up on turn2 as happened here, otherwise even a few turns to prepare make a big difference to how long you can tie them down on Sardinia I think. But also coming in this sort of strength it was impossible to do more than slow him marginally. On balance I think its still worth it and certainly he had to adjust his plan at least a little. In a parallel universe if I hadn't invested here I fully would have expected him to be in Rome already and me sitting on the Gothic line. This also might have opened up the chance for him to even land in Southern France in winter before he pulled his TFs back to prepare for Overlord.

Re. the Bf109G, I don't think its such a bad fighter on balance, I mix up some with 20mm pods and some without to be honest. Certainly in the Med where I expect to fight other single seaters they stay slick. Over the Reich I'll use more with pods to try to up the firepower against bombers. But clearly I am proving less savvy in the air than I thought I was...

[EddyBear81]

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

ORIGINAL: EddyBear81

I am a big supporter of fighting on the islands: my goal for 1943 is to de-rail the WA timetable, in order to prevent an early fall of Rome.
I want to be able to force a wintertime naval invasion which always proves difficult (see: Anzio). So I am not letting anything for free. The cost of this strategy is a few "stay behind" divisions (although I prefer to commit Inf Divs rather than Pz/PzG), and I am convinced it is worth it.

Regarding the Air War, I have a question to fellow gamers: how do you use the Bf-109-G6 ?
Their performance is almost always appalling (73 losses in your turn Gunnulf... and for very little WA planes shot down !), and I have been struggling to use them in a efficient way.
Do you fly "slick" or with 20mm cannons add-on ? Are AS directives part of the solution (I have tried different altitudes, but nothing seems to work) ? Or are they just crap to be used as second line fighters against sea lanes or as FBs in Italy ?

I tend to agree obviously. Its a bit harder when the Allies turn up on turn2 as happened here, otherwise even a few turns to prepare make a big difference to how long you can tie them down on Sardinia I think. But also coming in this sort of strength it was impossible to do more than slow him marginally. On balance I think its still worth it and certainly he had to adjust his plan at least a little. In a parallel universe if I hadn't invested here I fully would have expected him to be in Rome already and me sitting on the Gothic line. This also might have opened up the chance for him to even land in Southern France in winter before he pulled his TFs back to prepare for Overlord.

Re. the Bf109G, I don't think its such a bad fighter on balance, I mix up some with 20mm pods and some without to be honest. Certainly in the Med where I expect to fight other single seaters they stay slick. Over the Reich I'll use more with pods to try to up the firepower against bombers. But clearly I am proving less savvy in the air than I thought I was...

As your losses comparison shows, I think something has changed in the last versions of the game. I mean, the Luftwaffe seems to be a second rate air force from the beginning ! At least in 1943 they should be able to hold their ground against WA, and be defeated by attrition (which explains the futility of trying to dogfight over Essen, as you said: you could win most battles, but loose the war)
>> Currently, it is not what I experienced: you should avoid flying over the Ruhr, because if you do, you are crushed (like 1 to 10 victory ratio against fighters). And if you retreat to central Germany, even long range P38 are able to destroy Bf109 like they are sitting ducks...

What are we doing wrong ? How to use LW fighters, and especially Bf109s, so that they at least have a neutral/slightly positive winning ratio against WA fighters ?

[Gunnulf]

I'm not sure what to try next to be honest. As above loss comparison at least in 43 I was able to do some damage I think. This game not so much, and numbers of day fighters becoming a problem for sure. I think the problem might be that responding to so many small raids runs up fatigue quickly so in the later days of the week they are flying at a serious disadvantage against fresh Allied pilots. Thats just a feeling though.

We run some recce over the eastern Sicily area and sure enough the ports are stacked with troops. No doubt these are the 2nd wave, the assault troops will be in Africa of course. As a parting shot we hammer 231 Bde. 4 Arm Bde reacts in reserve but we prevail again wiping out a battalion of infantry and of tanks. Schmalz PzGn brigade is withdrawing this turn and the rest of the German are going to catch a ferry. The Italians can hold Messina until the surrender I suspect.

[loki100]

are you defending the Reich via air directives or by letting the intercept routine move your fighters into combat as needed?

I've tended to the latter and usually find it perfectly acceptable but wonder in this case if it would be better to use ADs? My guess is that might concentrate your fighters into a smaller box ... ok you are then going to miss some raids completely but hopefully that will give you the numbers to completely overwhelm some raids. Any allied bomber that escapes should be damaged and thus out of action till their morale recovers?

only saying this as I assume there is a response to Q-ball's use of multiple small raids ... would be a pity if the game came down to having a single right way to play the strategic airwar.

[Helpless]

There was no air combat changes in the code recently.

I downloaded a save and don't see Bf109 would be so bad performer. Best Bf109 group II/JG2 is on the third place with 64 registered A2A kills. Bf109 scored 968 A2A kills out 1777 total. Damage done by interceptors is also contributing toward all the numerous ops losses (1362).

Most of WA losses are A2A. Axis AA losses are higher, but if you exclude Axis Allies, they are about the same as WA.

His sorties count is declining and LW sorties per one loss is increasing.

He scored 141 bombing points per 11 Allies air phases, which is ~13-14 points per turn.

[Helpless]

only saying this as I assume there is a response to Q-ball's use of multiple small raids ... would be a pity if the game came down to having a single right way to play the strategic airwar.

Small raid is not the only thing he might be using. In the last save I see lots of big raids as well (ex. 2 big raids on Danzig U-Boat, which got intercepted, but since he is choosing path for them really well second raid did quite a lot of damage).

Clever management can bring lots of benefits. Especially for the player with initiative.

[Gunnulf]

Yes he does mix in the occasional big raids for the 8th Air Force. I'd say a ratio of 1 day in 3 is big raids perhaps but thats a guess from memory. QBall will in time be here to explain more, and of course its so far just evidence from my observations, and Helpless looking too of course. Certainly will be a more balanced discussion then I'm sure. Once the main invasion has passed will be a good moment for that I'm sure.

In terms of my strategy I have occasionally early on used some Air Superiority in order to avoid fighters straying too far west into the area Fighter command was operating, but I am further back now so just relying on intercept at 300%. However almost every raid has liberal P38 cover and they are doing good work. Only when they are occasionally missing do we have real success.

[Gunnulf]

Sardinia

On a more cheerful note I noticed that port damage in Olbia had repaired and we tried our hand to run the gauntlet as his naval patrols were relatively light too as noted above. 2 Regiments from 90 PzGn Div escaped to the mainland by sea, plus one regiment from 157 Gebirgs. We took this opportunity to say goodbye properly and also 2 Fallshirmjager and 1 Gebirgjager regiment flew out on transports who have been on standby for this moment. This will probably mean the island falls 1 week earlier but in the grand scheme I am ok with that. This leaves 1 Fallshirmjager, 1 PzGn Regt and the fortress brigade behind and I severely doubt I will get them out too, but compared to what I was expecting to sacrifice I'll chalk this up as a small triumph and vindication of the risks taken to slow him down. Hopefully QBall will be suitably furious

[Gunnulf]

Turn 13 - 25 Sep '43

Newsflash - The Allies land on the mainland!

QBall goes for 2 areas; the top of the toe and the Bari area. He has utilised 4 of his 6 TF, again 2 in reserve to surprise us with later. Defenses are light in both areas, mostly as the Italian corps there has been digging the Gothic line from as soon as it was clear he was shooting for an early Rome. Thats nearly finished, but we won't need it quite yet. Its good we forced him to change his plans which vindicates the Sardinia gamble. Of course we still need to worry about the other two TFs. These might either be aiming at Corsica or the Rome area. Impossible to say so we'll have to keep an eye on both.

[Gunnulf]

Part of me is now a little disappointed that he didn't go for Rome now. We were kinda getting ready for him to land in the Anzio area. 10th Army was trying to form up within striking distance without giving away too much to air recon. II SS Pz Korps (1 SS Pz Gn, 10 SS Pz Gn, 12 SS PzGn & now 90(-) Pz Gn) to the north and LVIII Pz Korps (HG Pz, 14 Pz, 16 Pz & 26 Pz) camping out SE of Rome. I think we could have brought some hurt on the beaches but I guess we'll never know now. Any opinions on that? We'll have to cover Rome still obviously but otherwise the priority is to man the Volturno line. We prepared this just in case though always seemed likely it wouldn't be needed so no Gustav line yet. Maybe there will still be a chance to dig that quickly too.

[carlkay58]

AS few comments from an experienced WA player.

1) Bombing VPs are really nice in 43. I have gotten as high as 25/turn. But remember that on Jan 1, 1944 they are reduced. At that point the VP/turn will go down and the WA are doing really good to gain 15 VP/turn. The weather in northern Europe will also go really bad at about the same time and you will be able to rebuild your necessary industries without the threat of daily bombing. UBoat VP loss will go away, but the VW VP losses are much harder to prevent and can be quite high. With the new -1200 city VP there is no way you can do better than a draw with a strict strategic bombing only. The WA are now forced to invade northern Europe and capture some cities.

2) The weather in the Med is about to go bad. From about turn 17/18 til turn 26 or so the rain will keep the WA air reigned in and the effects of mud in Italy are really nasty. If the Axis can hold Rome until 44 then they have deprived the WA of a large VP bump capturing it. Remember that the City VP gain also goes down every six months so the WA will have a harder and harder time maintaining the City and Bombing VPs for each turn.

3) The turn the WA invade in northern Europe will see a -100 VP total between the initial landing and the next turn's losses. The WA never welcomes that loss but the only alternative to accepting that VP loss is to invade in an undefended area (such as Brittany) which will only lengthen the distance to Germany and all of those City VPs.

Overall, I think you are doing fine. QBall is behind his schedule in the Med. For a historical Northern Europe invasion force, all but two Naval Groups will have to transfer to the ETO by mid March. It comes faster than you think.

I have tried to move the tactical AF and units from the ETO to the MTO from the first. There are two problems with that. The first is that the WA get almost all of their reinforcements for 43 in the MTO anyways. The second is that the supply situation is just made worse with the additional forces. The one advantage for the WA in the MTO is the presence of existing Air Fields everywhere. It makes it easy to keep the WA air support within range of the front lines. This is more difficult in Northern Europe west of Paris and the Siene.

Another comment is that the WA Strategic Air War relies on accurate Strategic Recon. This is an area I have yet to master despite my continued attempts to do so. Still trying to figure it all out. Without accurate Strategic Recon, the WA think the targets are 100% damaged and they will not bomb them any further. So the WA can come out strong on the Strategic bombing war but then it tampers down.

[Gunnulf]

Thanks Carlkay, much appreciated comments, and some useful thoughts. I even allowed a small hint of hope, as you are right the tough weather is not far off. It very much depends where his next 2 TFs have targeted I think. I have ceased flying day fighters for a couple of turns to re-build and re-organise. After 2 turns he may get complacent and allow us an ambush. The losses to B17s were about the same whether I flew or not anyway!

Down south I finished my turn. 4 Naval patrol directives isolate his Bari landings and those on the east coast. I'm sure he can re-establish this quickly but it seemed too obvious, that's an ideal choke-point on the heel and a flaw in his plan. Lets call that little operation 'Case Achilles'.... Sorry.
That, with a little interdiction by TaC gruppes, a last hurrah by the Italians before they surrender throwing up a light screen will hopefully add a week or so onto the time it takes him to reach the mountains.

Otherwise the 3 units in Sardinia are toast as the port and airbases are overrun. We can hunker down in the hills and live off olives until the inevitable fall. Might still be a couple of weeks though. Techincally holding into october would be a bonus, although now the mainland landings are in and the Italian surrender rolls are happening its less important, but still, it keeps his boys busy a while.

In Sicily its just the Italians in Messina now. A strong garrison, better than Palermo and he has less troops so they should hold out until the surrender too. I doubt he'll bother attacking even.