The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Lecivius]

That unit will jump. I have used it before. Not sure what else may have caused the issue.

[Canoerebel]

It jumped this turn. Not sure what happened last turn. Probably I mis-clicked something and changed it's orders.

[Canoerebel]

2/11/44

See map, which has all the exciting details of a rather quiet turn (quiet in a meaningful, helpful, alluring way, to me).

[paullus99]

Logistics is what wins the war for the Allies, even in this game....

John plays the Japanese to a "T." The overall lack of a strategic vision to win the war, other than to try to sink as many ships as possible.

I can see why he doesn't play Allied - he could never handle the logistics involved.

[Canoerebel]

John played at least one game as Allies. I recall that he loaded up a Marine CD unit to reinforce Wake immediately. I don't recall who his opponent one (it was a name-guy) and why the game ended, but it didn't go very long. I don't think the end came about due to John.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Logistics is what wins the war for the Allies, even in this game....

John plays the Japanese to a "T." The overall lack of a strategic vision to win the war, other than to try to sink as many ships as possible.

I can see why he doesn't play Allied - he could never handle the logistics involved.

I would say that logistically a Japanese expansion at the start of the game is more difficult than the allied expansion later on.

[Lokasenna]

It's more tedious, that's for sure.


RE: that carrier force... mayhaps he's looking to raid any of your CENTPAC shipping while your carriers are in the Celebes? Dunno.

[bradfordkay]

Dan, what sort of aviation support do you have on Celebes now?

[Canoerebel]

Watampone has 125 aviation support, Palapo 16, Salajar Island 16.

I don't have an airfield on Celebes yet. Watampone just got a big infusion of engineers, though, and its airfield will go to level one in a day or two and will build quickly, It's a 0(7) field.

[Canoerebel]

D-Day Big Tent was 11/14/43, almost three months ago. Since then, the Allied perimeter has expanded from Morotai to Bathurst Island and from Celebes to Horn Island. Death Star and most of the Herd have been at sea nearly the entire time. SYS damage is remarkably low, but fuel is beginning to run short and upgrades are due. More importantly, Fun House is just five or six weeks off. DS and the Herd need to get into port, attend to upgrades, refuel (a process that will take time at Normanton, a level four port that can only handle modest logistics each day and which only draws fuel in modest increments), and then get to the bases where they'll embark the Fun House troops.

There are still lots of tempting targets in the DEI - important bases weakly held or vacant dot hexes that can be built large. Time, logistical needs, fuel stores, and a dearth of available reserve troops to commit in new campaigns will stop the expansion. John is beginning to fill in his defensive perimeter and, I think, will soon turn to strike. He's probably had enough time now to figure out what he wants to do next.

Like the German army in France in the autumn of '44, Japan has been in retreat for three months and has taken a beating. But the navy is still dangerous. John has a large number of carriers. Eventually, he will turn on his attacker, as Germany did in the Ardennes, hopefully with an equally unfavorable outcome.

I don't believe John has committed a Japanese naval ship in battle in the DEI since the end of November. As the Allied navy has moved back and forth for more than two months, there has been no meaningful opposition...and that has been limited to subs and aircraft. The DEI is prime territory to commit combat TFs to tear into transports and Allied bases (as Miller did to me so effectively in our game seven years ago), but nothing of the sort has happened here. John all but conceded the northeast DEI, posting KB in the Solomon Sea region for most of this campaign.

This is the payoff on the long, so hard, costly effort to attrition the Kaigun. It's still dangerous, but John has been afraid to commit it during this most critical campaign.

During Big Tent, Third Ring, and Carousel, the largest combat ship I've lost has been a CLAA. I've also lost about a dozen destroyers. Three CLs and one CVE have been damaged. That's it. The loss to merchant shipping has been higher, but still modest. The toll in xAK and xAP is the most noticeable (not high, but not insignificant), but just a few high value ships (APA, AKA, AK, TK and AO).

Even though John has been loathe to commit the Kaigun, he's lost two BBs (Mutsu and Yamato) and CVL Zuiho. He's lost at least a dozen precious DDs and a lot of subs. Two CVs, three BBs, several CLs, and many subs have been seriously damaged.

There still remains some mopping up in the DEI prior to Fun House. The Celebes campaign (Makassar in particular) may require an assist from the navy. Gove has to be taken or abandoned. And there is a possibility of moving on Darwin for a key logistical reason that I'll explain sometime later, when the time is right (John has drawn down much of his garrison there so that it's no longer the citadel it once was).

So the next five or six weeks should be a bit quieter. If John wishes to seek a decisive naval battle, he'll have to come to me, since there won't be any further expansion in the DEI. If there isn't a decisive battle in that time frame, then he'll face the combined Death Star and Death Star Junior as Fun House unfolds. DS Jr. will add two CV, two CVL, and about eight CVE to DS. That force won't be impregnable, but it will be fearsome. It'll be topped off in fuel, upgraded, and all aircraft squadrons and pilots will be top-notch.

[Canoerebel]

2/12/44

Carousel: Deliberate attack will take place tomorrow. I'm very interested in seeing whether there are signs of a shaky defense. See map for other theater details.

Burma: John is reinforcing Taung Gyi, where a second para-assault didn't succeed (the troops are 100% prepped but suffering from high disruption). The unit will rest tomorrow while the air force targets the enemy units there and in the adjacent hex.

[paullus99]

Nice bombardment - he's not going to be able to hold very long, it appears.

[paullus99]

It appears that you are going to have very large bases for bombing the crap out of his oil very, very soon.

[BBfanboy]

With those bombardment results from two cruisers and some DDs, I am sure he has almost no forts built.

[Canoerebel]

Clear terrain, too.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/44

Carousel: The Japanese defense of Makassar collapsed on the first assault. The Allies take this important base. Most of the details are on the map.

Makassar suddenly became a target a month ago almost entirely due to John's forward-thinking defense. At the time Horn Island fell, I intended to move Death Star into the Coral Sea. But John had KB posted in the Solomons. There was no need to force a battle since recon showed lots of opportunities in Celebes and the islands to the south. So, on the same day that Horn Island fell, 4th Aus. Div. switched prep to Makassar and re-embarked on transports. I had previously switched 1st Aus. Div. at Merauke to Makassar. So after 4th loaded, the amphibious TF went to Merauke to pick up 1st. Then they moved on Celebes.

The other "casualty" of John's forward thinking is that he spent time and ships, effort and men, to bolster Gove's defenses. By doing so, he secured that base for some time to come, but he'd have been better served, IMO, attending to the rear rather than to the front.

He's in the difficulty position of having X needs but only .5X assets and time. He can't be everywhere at once, but his forward thinking has been working to his detriment.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/44

Carousel: See map for details.

KB: See following map for details.

[Canoerebel]

2/14/44

KB: Could be out near Marcus, though not enough info to rise even to "hunch" level.

[BBfanboy]

If John thinks you will be coming back to Marcus soon and fall into his trap he has really fallen into wishful thinking! He must know that you are watching for signs of KB and will not venture there without DS!
Meanwhile -his fuel stocks go up in smoke ...

[Canoerebel]

A week or two back, I mentioned that I had finally made a decision on the most important question I faced. At the time, I was afraid that I would experience "buyer's remorse," but as the days and now weeks have passed, I'm increasingly certain that I made the right call.

The question was how to merge Death Star and Death Star Junior leading into Fun House without subjecting them to defeat in detail. That's why I had wanted John to commit KB into the DEI. When it became clear that John wasn't going to cooperate, I had to come up with another way. The failure to grab Marcus two weeks ago complicated matters, because Japanese patrols will pick up DS Junior much earlier than I'd like.

My preferred method was for John to post KB in the DEI or in the South China Sea, which is still possible. If so, I'd keep Death Star in the DEI and, at the right moment, utilize it in a sudden strike to the north (probably Taulad Eilenden, north of Manado). This would pin John's attention there, allowing DS Junior to make it's approach from Hawaii (and Marcus in Allied hands would've made this considerably easier).

I tinkered with a dozen variations of that plan until one struck me as "best" a few weeks back. I like it even more now than I did then.

Fun House will move out on schedule. Part of this depended on getting the Big Tent Herd back to Hawaii in good order and on time. The lead TF is only 35 hexes out of Pearl now; the trailing TF is near Noumea. This "sub-op" has gone well.