The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Crackaces »

The Allies I think have done an excellent job of enticing the IJN to keep moving large fuel consuming platforms with no real strategic purpose besides to react to Allied moves. I feel very strongly when the Allies finally cut the fuel source the IJ will wish they had those stores back ...
I have stated this before .. but all those Naval platforms are nice toys but the fundamental amount of fuel available to the IJ I believe has not changed .. thus the AAR's documenting players running out of fuel in stock scenarios should be a clue for planning purposes ..
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

2/4/44

Carousel: The invasion of Celebes is off to a fine start. Watampone fell today on a deliberate attack by 1st Aus. Division. Salajar auto-flipped. A recon-by-bombardment shows basically no defenses at Palapo, will fall tomorrow. Watampone and Palapo airfields can be built to level 9, larger than anything the Allies have in Big Tent. Salajar can be built to level 8. The prospect of big airfields here, and any the lack of defenses further west (I think), may cause John to re-think he "forward" strategy (but what do I know?).

Support troops (especially engineers) are loading at Boela to come forward to Celebes. These are the troops that were strat loaded at Normanton and delivered to Ceram, where combat loading then took place.

John employed a fair amount of LBA today, especially strike aircraft from Balikpapan targeting shipping at Palapo. LRCAP from Death Star did a commendable job, but eventually some bombers got through. One empty APA took moderate damage.

Tomorrow, the shipping will mostly combine with DS. One transport TF will move to Watampone to unload another Australian division.

1st Aussie Div., I Aussie HQ, and a marine tank unit are moving out from Watampone to test things at Makassar.

There's still a lot to do to get things where I want them at Celebes, but the area involved is "tight" and movement seems to be efficient. I'm guessing DS needs about a week or so on the scene. If John doesn't deploy KB by then, or if something else doesn't happen, the Allied positions on Celebes will be very strong.

At that point, DS may retire again to Normanton to bring forward one more allotment of troops, supply and fuel...and, perhaps most importantly, to provide CAP as far as the Torres Strait for the huge number of ships that still need to exit the DEI and head back to Pearl.

Lots to do, right? So many needs...and there are so many opportunities. A great number of bases in this region are vacant. But I don't have the troops, fuel or time to dance around. I wish I could do more, a lot, everything!, but logistical constraints are limiting.

Bumper Car: No sign of enemy forces today, as the Allied ships continue retiring towards Pearl. A USN combat TF (part of DS Junior) did register an elevated detection level. This gave me a little pause. What's out there? Where? If tomorrow is uneventful, I think this "Herd" should be in the clear.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Capt. Harlock »

I dunno. My wife claims I look like Braxton Bragg, but I think I am ruggedly handsome and winsome like Breckenridge. My winning ways with ladies could suggest a Van Dorn. The way I intimidate Bullwinkle is reminiscent of John Brown Gordon's prowess. The manner in which I sometimes forget to do little but important things is sorta Wheeler-ish. And the fact that I sleep anywhere at any time - under tables, in court, in church, while driving - hearkens to Jackson.*

I'm thinking Longstreet or Joe Johnston, for having to take significant down time. [:D]
Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

2/5/44

Carousel: Palapo fell easily to an attack by a Kiwi brigade. No air attacks, sub attacks or other aggressive action by John's forces. He may be reinforcing, particularly Pare Pare on the west coast of Celebes.

I had originally intended to take that base, but won't go after any strongly held bases except Makassar. It's clear terrain, has one infantry unit, and is exposed to bombardment. I have one Australian division 45% prepped and another that is 25% prepped. I think it's doable, though John might fight hard to bring in reinforcements.

At the moment, the road to the west is open and there are juicy bases out there that are probably lightly defended - places like Sampit, Billiton and Ketapang that are very useful of their own merit, but would also dovetail nicely with long-term plans. Mounting such an operation would take time (mainly to scrounge up the troops needed). Time is becoming scarce. Operation Fun House might kick off in six weeks. DS is likely to remain in the DEI until then, but needs a good 10-15 days in port to upgrade. There isn't enough time, fuel and troops to do everything I'd like to do, and everything that appears so available. And yet, if John keeps KB in the Pacific, the road west would be pretty darned open. Getting a strong lodgment in southern Borneo in early February '44 would be quite helpful.

John probably recognizes this too. He, too, is having to prioritize. I don't envy him, really. Tough decisions with too little resources. His flagrant use of KB for so much of the game is really biting him now. He sewed the wind and is reaping a whirlwind.

Third Ring: Allied merchants continue to stream into the Coral Sea, which has been mercifully free of enemy raiders and carriers. Today, an IJN sub sank a good xAP. That's the first member of the Herd to get culled after exiting the Torres Strait.

As noted previously, another high-priority mission for DS is to escort the balance of ships returning to Hawaii at least as far as the Torres Strait. I need to do that pretty quickly...but it's so hard to do when opportunity exists to the west and asks only for a commitment of time.

If KB doesn't raid into the Coral Sea (I don't expect it too, but I'm still watching), I now have four CVEs in theater. This Mini-DS will be used much later, once the coast is truly clear to escort around little invasion forces needed to conquer abandoned or lightly defended enemy bases.

Bumper Car: I think DS-Junior and that Herd are safely clear of the danger zone, if it was indeed dangerous. Most of the TFs are at or east of Midway now. They'll be back, and Bumper Car will eventually take place. That'll happen when KB is far away. And it's not really Bumper Car in the singular; it's Bumper Cars.

Fun House: A massive army has been prepping for weeks for the primary targets. To allow for various contingencies, there are secondary and tertiary potential targets too. Bottom line, as I see it, is that Bumper Car results in the union of DS and DS Junior with an army of 150,000, 750k fuel, and 1,000k supplies.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Oops, please disregard without comment. I am in flagrante delicto.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lokasenna »

You can just walk to Pare Pare and Madjene later, anyway. I heard you liked hikes in rough terrain.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by BBfanboy »

I know the Allies get/have lots of engineers in 1944, but what about BFs with aviation support and LBA? Can you put airfields and Air Support/aircraft on enough of those newly conquered bases to make them dangerous even when DS has to go East? The leap to Borneo seems a bit far with all you have to cover.
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

It is unlikely, but not impossible, that I'd move on to southern Borneo. The odds go up if John dallies in a marked way. But I just don't think he'll do so. In fact, I'd rate at 70% the odds that he'll react violently towards my incursion into Celebes. If he does so, I'll shift my attention to the north.

It'll take awhile to build the bases on Celebes, but they are a proximate threat to John's SRA. As noted previously, Soerabaja, Semerang, Balikpapan, and Tarakan are within 4EB range now. And patrols at "regular" range are flying over Ketapang, Brunei, Miri, and parts of the South China Sea.

But there's that 30% chance that he'd keep showing KB in the Pacific, with SigInt showing troops movements mainly to the Philippines. That combination would be an invitation to move west.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

2/6/44

Carousel: The next big battle is Makassar. Two Aussie divisions will march overland, taking a good week or so. I think John will fight hard and reinforce, as he's done at Gove. But thus far no signs of reinforcements.

Death Star will depart for one turn to escort empties towards Ceram and to receive reinforcements inbound from Ceram. This gives John a brief window to move ships to Makassar, but he isn't aware of the window, of course.
Once the infantry arrives at Makassar, I am cautiously optimistic about handling the campaign relatively efficiently. The availability of bombardment TFs and DS's proximity should help bludgeon the enemy. And I don't think the enemy garrison is as strong as it appears - two units, 14k strong (meaning one good-sized infantry, but it doesn't show any AFVs and few guns). If Makassar falls, that then frees those divisions to move up the coast to attend to other bases.

Fun House: As explained in detail on the map, a major decision made today on a question I've been pondering for weeks. Fun House took much more shape today. I think a late-March schedule is doable. I think the logistics will work. It will be a massive undertaking, which means lots of planning, lots of clicking, lots of fun.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by BBfanboy »

Looks like very few of his subs around compared to a couple of weeks ago. Did he redeploy them to watch for your invasion feint toward Marcus or did you attrit them that much?
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

John's subs have been hit hard since November. I suspect he's pulled them back, though I can't be sure.

Right now, he has a pack working the east coast of Oz. He recently had a pack working the San Fran to LA sector, though I haven't seen them in a few days.

I'm in the process of pulling my subs back now. John's ASW and air ASW are so strong near bases that my subs are running up high SYS damage numbers quickly. I'm moving them out to the open spaces, which isn't nearly as productive. Eventually, I'll pull my subs into ports. Then they'll be released, en masse, coinciding with Fun House.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Lokasenna »

Gaggle of "CVE" and PB makes me think tankers or AV's (or other tenders). I'd expect something like that to be reported with medium DL (looks like you have something like 3/7 or 4/6 on it). However, with that level of DL if they were actually CVE or bigger carriers, you'd also see planes.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

2/7/44

I made two goofs today (that I know of), neither of which should be significant, except there's always the possibility of a "little thing" turning into one of those "for want of a nail, the shoe was lost" things.

Carousel: "Oops Number 1" was failing to set three reinforcement TFs at Ambon to "direct/absolute." Instead of steaming west to rendezvous with Death Star off Celebes, as all the TFs with proper orders did, the AI set a route around Timor! Fortunately, no enemy strikes targeted these TFs. But it will take me day or two to corral them and get them back to DS. As a result, all these ships will be at least a day or two late reaching the beachheads. Who knows what mischief these little delays will cause?

My latest hunch is that John looks at the map, sees DS nestled among all his airfields, and draws logical conclusions. I've beefed up PBY patrols at the forward bases.

Enemy LBA sortied in moderate numbers and to no ill effect, except for them.

The exodus into the Coral Sea (and now the Pacific Ocean south of New Caledonia is going well, but an IJN sub picked off an xAK near Lord Howe Island today. I'm still worried about the possibility of an enemy raid here - either by combat ships or by carriers (slight as it may be) - so checked and adjusted PBY locations down here.

Bumper Cars: "Oops Number 2" actually started yesterday and is a minor matter, except that it might chafe John. A few days ago, Allied recon showed Taongi, a dot hex near Eniwetok and Wolei, was vacant. I figured John had finally withdrawn the little unit he had there. So I ordered a paratroop assault from Maloelap. Oops, John's unit was still there. My troops evaporated. I sent a note to John explaining what had happened and assured him that I do not do "reconnaissance by para-fragment" missions. But then I forgot to stand down the paratroop unit, so it attacked again today. John's email reply was short - not snippy but neither was it warmly "Ha! Ha! I wondered."

I've had my eye on Taongi a long time. In fact, I held it briefly. I've known exactly what was there for months. I've deployed an invasion force twice in the past six weeks (recalled both times due to concerns about KB's whereabouts). This turn, I've remembered to stand down the paratroops, and I won't send the US Army RCT to take the base for at least a couple of months, just to make sure John doesn't feel like I took advantage of my miscue.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

In case John questions whether my explanation about Taongi is sincere, here's a screen shot of one part of 138th US RCT prepping for Taongi. It and the rest of the RCT are aboard ships returning to Pearl from the second aborted amphibious mission to take the island. I knew John had about 1.5k troops there - a naval guard unit - but felt like a RCT and a few nuclear bombardments (BB New Jersey went along on the first mission) were sufficient to reduce the defenses.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by BBfanboy »

Just a note - Ulithi is an atoll but Yap is a substantial sized island with good potential, so putting a strong defence there is not going to overstack it.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

John III has a biopsy this afternoon. He said he's already posted in his AAR and okayed me doing so here. Drop him a note of well-wishes, if you can.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

2/8/44

Carousel: Naughtily scattered members of the Herd were rounded up today and rejoined the main herd. The combined TFs will resume the voyage to Celebes. This is an important reinforcements mission - infantry garrisons for the two new bases and lots of support units. There are lots of the usual concerns when in enemy waters, but the biggest threat would be combined KB/LBA attack. I don't think John can get KB here soon enough to contest these key landings, but after that, we'll see.

I'm looking for signs that John will react violently (or passively) to the invasion of Celebes. Today he sortied Helens from Balikpapan against the little ports at Palapo and Watampone, to no good effect. But that's the kind of thing I'd expect to see if John is going to escalate matters. Let's see.

The reinforcement landings should take the next four or five days. While that is going on, at least one Aussie division will arrive at Makassar to test the defenses (the second trailing by a day or so). I'm very interested in gauging if the defense will be tough or if it shows weaknesses.

No sign of KB anywhere, but sub Aspro did sink an AO embedded in a larger replenishment TF, just north of Truk.

Fun House: So very much going on, but all non-sexy behind-the-scenes kind of stuff. I'm hoping for a late March kickoff. Troops are prepping everywhere and I'm scrounging for transports to get the laggards from San Frank and vicinity over to Hawaii.



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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

2/9/44

John III: John's biopsy went well. He's back home and feeling pretty good about things. Drop by his AAR and offer him an encouraging word. It means a lot to him.

Carousel: If that little delay a couple of days back is going to turn in to one of those "for want of a nail, the shoe was lost" episodes, tomorrow should be the day. Death Star will be at its most forward position ever (more forward than last visit to Celebes just in case John is counting on my taking the same position and has some deviltry in mind).

The amphibs go to Watampone tomorrow. If that goes well (it should), the Allied lodgment in Celebes will be very strong. Two US Army RCT, a navy engineering regiment, Australian engineers, tanks, and some base force personnel will come ashore.

The first Allied troops will reach Makassar tomorrow.

Burma: The first Allied ground assault since January of '43 will take place tomorrow. See map for details.

Third Ring: Egress movement of ships through the Coral Sea is nearing completion.

Fun House: San Fran is now nearly vacant. Nearly all troops are in Hawaii or on their way.

Tales of Divisions: (1) US Army 7th: This unit was heavily involved in the Marshalls invasions; it then sat in Hawaii for a long time, prepping for Marcus; ten days ago, it was closing on Marcus when that op bot cancelled; now I must decide whether to hold it for Marcus or switch to a new target; I'm not sure yet; (2) 2nd Marines: This unit has been used and abused. Its first landing was Umnak at 0% prep; it took the base; then it came to Hawaii to join Big Tent as the main reserve unit; I used it to land at Dobo 0% prepped, which worked like a charm; then it landed at Gove at 45% prep; now it's mired down there in a tough action; I'm likely to keep it there and concentrate on Gove later, but I might withdraw it to move forward; (3) 1st Marines: the most abused unit of the war; this strong outfit fought its heart out in Sumatra, surrendering at the end; reconstituted in San Fran, it moved to Hawaii at 40% experience; I had room to take two RCT along on Big Tent (the third remained at Pearl, training and prepping for Eniwetok); those two RCT landing at Namlea in a fiasco; the two then rebuilt a bit at Boela; one RCT then took Bathurst; the other is currently garrisoning Merauke. 1st Marines will one day recombine and serve in a powerful way. It's had a chequered history thanks to the failures of its commanding officer.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

2/10/44

Carousel: A good day, mainly because the enemy didn't interfere with Death Star or the troops landing at Watampone. DS and the Herd will likely retire after another day - or at most two - as the campaign will then enter a new phase (more later).

I'm very interested in seeing how a probing bombardment by 1st Aus. Div. at Makassar goes tomorrow.

Fun House: Sakes alive, there's a lot going on. But it's just logistics at the moment, so I won't bore you.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by BBfanboy »

Troop transport for a combat paradrop can only go normal range. Was that the problem?
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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