The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Bathurst Island is a dot base 1 NE of Darwin. Can you hit Darwin with DS before you retire to Normanton? Then, come back and land some troops, constr eng, and BFs to semi-isolate Darwin's influence on your western flank.

I like the idea of taking Bathurst and then doing a major build up. It effectively corks up anything in Australia.

[Canoerebel]

Bathurst is an important base and would indeed bottle up Oz. But I don't think I'm going there. To take the base and get engineers ashore with sufficient supply and time to build it, and to detail the assets (possibly carriers and combat ships) needed to protect it while building, would take a lot of time that I don't have. That's just a judgment call based upon everything that's going on and everything else that needs to be done. There are so many opportunities and necessities that I just not able to do everything that seems very worthwhile.

One of the limiting factors going forward is fuel. I have about 150k remaining aboard AOs and xAKs. I've got to keep sufficient reserves to handle TFs moving to and from Normanton and then, finally, the egress from Big Tent (when that time comes). But above all I need to keep enough fuel on hand to allow Death Star to strike if opportunities arrive. Targeting the Kaigun remains the highest priority.

[Canoerebel]

12/16/43

Big Tent: No time for a full update due to business matters to attend to. Map explains in some detail. The two most important things:

1. Death Star to move south to contest any enemy efforts to resupply or reinforce Merauke.
2. Ambon attack fails with moderate disablements to the Allies. This nut is very tough to crack for reasons unclear to me. I'll work on this and give it a lot more thought.

[Lokasenna]

What size is the port at Normanton? 4?

If so, and if you have enough fuel in Australia, Normanton will draw plenty of fuel on its own over that big road. That could ease up the draw on your AOs.

[witpqs]

The consequences of Shock attacks are so different than they were in WITP. They really are best left for when you time them based on preparing the target (or of course when required on landing or crossing rivers - nothing you can do about that). You probably will get much better results by repeated Deliberate attacks. If you can swing it - depends on how much you have there - the best results are achieved by rotating infantry units between attacking and resting so that the defenders get no day of rest. But that only is feasible if you have enough present so that the partial attacks don't get slaughtered.

[Canoerebel]

12/17/43

Big Tent: Very hard fighting in the Banda Sea, as both sides collide while trying to reinforce Babar. The net result is neither side's reinforcements come ashore (his are mostly sunk, my transport TF backs off). BB Nagato shows up and tangles with several small Allied combat TFs, which do a commendable job of distracting the big guy (I lose one DD, and CLAA Richmond is in bad shape) so that it doesn't get in amongst the transports or ASW TFs.

John lost a number of transports, including an AK, plus a DD.

Later in the day, Allied carrier air sorties, but in small and unsatisfactory numbers, managing to put one TT into Nagato and roughing up another troop convoy near Bathhurst Island. I lost 25 Hellcats in this unsavory affair.

Allied transports do land a Marine RCT (a small, inexperienced one) at Saumlaki, so that base is much more secure, and some much-needed supply came ashore at Babar before John's LBA scored some hits, damaging three or four xAKs.

Very tough decision to make now - I have two choices to make that are diametrically opposite so that I can't do both, and there's a third that possibly could be conjoined with one (but not both) of the others.

Death Star carriers have 90% sorties remaining and are in position to do one of two things:

(1) move between Babar and Darwin, ceiling off John's lanes to reinforce. This is almost guaranteed to mean victory in the Babar campaign. The only chance John would have is if KB is lurking and could pounce in conjunction with Darwin and Koepang's LBA. But I don't think KB is down here. If I did this mission, I might have a chance at catching Nagato, if the one torp really slowed her down (the combat report didn't indicate any "fires" or "heavy damage"). The problem with this alternative is that it doesn't molest what is surely a supply or reinforcement TF inbound to Merauke.

(2) move SE and take station relatively close to Merauke, to take control of the air over that port and hopefully destroy any shipping there; Merauke is *probably* more important than Babar; John's clearly trying hard to protect both, but Merauke is and always has been a key part of Third Ring to create a secure LOC back to Oz; I already have many empty transports TFs and some AOs and support TFs moving from Boela towards Normanton, so positioning the carriers here would be synergistic with that effort.

I'm leaning towards number two, with concession to Babar: sending the Marine reinforcement TF in with CA Baltimore TF to visit the port during the night phase to try to clear out any opposition John might send this way.

It is possible that this sequence of decisions will allow John to take control of the Babar situation. But I can't be in both places at one time, and I think ultimately Merauke is more important and moving expeditiously to Normanton is too.

Third Ring: Normanton is a level four port (reaching that level two days back). I'm bringing an AKE and an AE from Boela in hopes of replenishing some sorties/ammo while there.

Also, John is fighting very hard to take control of the air space over Merauke. He's downed a good 20 4EB the past few days. I'm willing to fight this battle because I'm trying to keep this base as week as possible until the Aussie division (which is 61% prepped at Normanton) is ready to move.

I've been working the fuel angle to Oz very hard for months now; but with all these developments, I've worked it even harder the past few days to find new TFs that can carry fuel into theater.

KB: Where the heck is it? I don't know, but I still guess Solomon Sea. I would not be surprised if John commits it into the Torres Strait region in hopes of crafting a battle that favors him.

Every turn is fraught with peril and major decisions. Very tight and tense. Very much fun.

[BBfanboy]

Agree with going after the Merauke reinforcements - even if KB is waiting on the other side of Horn Is. or N.G.

John is not in the habit of making extensive plans so chances are he doesn't have anything immediately available to land at Babar. He might take control of the seas for a while but will have to cede that when DS returns. So as long as your Babar troops have supply they can wait for the next reinforcement you bring.

I also expect John to think you will chase Nagato because that is what he would do. Your move on Merauke might just surprise him.

[Canoerebel]

Orders issued. Main thing is that Death Star moves on Merauke.

But CA Baltimore TF will make a quick run to Babar, and BB Tennessee TF will do the same at Saumlaki. Then both are supposed to retire to Boela, to guard Big Tent while Death Star makes for Oz.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

The consequences of Shock attacks are so different than they were in WITP. They really are best left for when you time them based on preparing the target (or of course when required on landing or crossing rivers - nothing you can do about that). You probably will get much better results by repeated Deliberate attacks. If you can swing it - depends on how much you have there - the best results are achieved by rotating infantry units between attacking and resting so that the defenders get no day of rest. But that only is feasible if you have enough present so that the partial attacks don't get slaughtered.

Agree, there is an over reliance on shock attacks among players. Unless there is some sort of emergency, preparation combined with deliberate attacks are less costly in the long run.

[Canoerebel]

12/18/43

Big Tent: Another bloody day in the charnel house that is the Big Tent AOO. Death Star did interdict enemy TFs resupplying Merauke and Gove, sinking more than a dozen xAK and xAP (none carrying troops). John had a phase to get supply ashore at Merauke, and his AA is firing now, but all of his ships were destroyed there.

A portion of a marine RCT landed at Babar without any clashes, so that base now has a modest garrison. I've ordered most shipping to retire - all but a few low value transports carrying supply to both bases (Babar and Saumlaki).

John got a few licks in as CAP at Merauke and Port Moresby downed more than 50 Allied aircraft, including something like 20 4EB. I can't and won't keep this up forever - just until I can (hopefully) implement the first phases of Third Ring (invasion of Merauke).

Perhaps the biggest news is that patrols picked up part or all of KB at Truk. John's carriers are too far away to contest the move to Normanton. I figure he'll send the carriers to the Big Tent
AOO to assert dominance while Death Star is absent. But I left behind a BB TF and a CA TF, and the CAP is strong.

Death Star sorties are down to 80% after two days of strikes at merchant shipping.

CLAA Richmond, badly damaged in combat against Nagato TF yesterday, sank today.

Allied CVE TF moved from Townsville to Cooktown. John's NavSearch got a good look at them. Their purpose is to create "noise and clutter" while banging on drums and jars and cans.

[BBfanboy]

Does John have recon on the number of fighters you have at Cooktown and Townsville? If not, he might send KB after those CVEs (which I think you want).

[Canoerebel]

He has been reconning Portland Roads and Coen, but not Cooktown. But his patrols picked the TFs up "loud and clear." I can just imagine him thinking, "I may have an opportunity here."

[Canoerebel]

I've mentioned previously that John seemed to be ignoring his besieged forces at Ambon, an important base, while vigorously reacting to my moves on Babar, Saumlauki, Dobo and Merauke. I've been asking myself, "Why? What's he thinking?"

Perhaps John's operational strategy was to "cauterize" Big Tent by ringing it with strong bases and big airfields. Under this approach, he would strive to prevent me from creating a LOC extending from Big Tent to Oz. Then he could attack the "surrounded" Big Tent forces. Hence, he worried more about the bases on that LOC than about my more forward bases, like Morotai, and the current struggle going on at Ambon.

He sent a lot of troop transports to Darwin accompanied by a strong combat TF, which is precious now due to the high attrition in the game. I *think* Death Star destroyed a fair percentage of the transports. Does John reload and try again? Or does he now re-orient his focus to places like Ambon and the forward Allied bases. With Death Star leaving the Big Tent AOO, he might conclude that this is the time to strike.

The past few days have been tough and bloody and costly in a tactical sense. But there's been some good progress - taking Babar and Saumlaki and then staving off John's countermeasures (at least temporarily) while also reinforcing those bases; knocking out the shipping at Merauke; and (I think) damaging quite a few Japanese subs. The stalemate at Ambon vexes me a bit, and I'm afraid of repeating that at Merauke with the Aussie division invades (but it has better prep and is a stronger unit). Let's see what happens.

[JohnDillworth]

In the long run Ambon is doomed. It is surrounded by enemy bases. Once those bases have airfields its game over. The Empire can not really afford to get into an extended attrition battle with you (not that it seems to have prevented anyone from doing just that). I think he believes your goal is Darwin. I'd certainly thing so. As long as he can keep it supplied it requires you to bring supplies in the hard way. Third Ring should eliminate so of those issue, but Darwin will still be a pain. Kendari is a real prize. Great base and it puts you LBA in a position to cause serious harm. Also, naval serchs from there will make your subs much, much more effective. You have a lot of long term options here. Did he take anything on the west coast of Australia? If not and Java is in your thoughts regular convoys of fuel and supplies to Perth will help

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



Perhaps John's operational strategy was to "cauterize" Big Tent by ringing it with strong bases and big airfields. Under this approach, he would strive to prevent me from creating a LOC extending from Big Tent to Oz. Then he could attack the "surrounded" Big Tent forces. Hence, he worried more about the bases on that LOC than about my more forward bases, like Morotai, and the current struggle going on at Ambon.

You are fast approaching 1/44. I just don't see any Japanese player mounting a major offensive to retake a base given the state of your respective carrier forces. He may snip off one or two lightly held bases but not more. Once you have built your bases up, he really has no way of attacking any base if your carriers are anywhere nearby. Containment maybe, but not retaking anything substantial. If he does pull off a coup and retakes an important base, you just have too many other bases in hand for that base to remain viable.

The advantage of the Allies at this point is that they can take just about any point and build it up to a dangerous air base. Any offensive he mounts would have to go back in and take at least 3/4 of the bases you have snatched up. Don't see that happening.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



Perhaps John's operational strategy was to "cauterize" Big Tent by ringing it with strong bases and big airfields. Under this approach, he would strive to prevent me from creating a LOC extending from Big Tent to Oz. Then he could attack the "surrounded" Big Tent forces. Hence, he worried more about the bases on that LOC than about my more forward bases, like Morotai, and the current struggle going on at Ambon.

You are fast approaching 1/44. I just don't see any Japanese player mounting a major offensive to retake a base given the state of your respective carrier forces. He may snip off one or two lightly held bases but not more. Once you have built your bases up, he really has no way of attacking any base if your carriers are anywhere nearby. Containment maybe, but not retaking anything substantial. If he does pull off a coup and retakes an important base, you just have too many other bases in hand for that base to remain viable.

The advantage of the Allies at this point is that they can take just about any point and build it up to a dangerous air base. Any offensive he mounts would have to go back in and take at least 3/4 of the bases you have snatched up. Don't see that happening.

Don't forget that this scenario is one of John's recent mods which gives Japan several basketfuls of goodies. I am not sure of the land part of the bonuses, but I am sure there would be some extra power there.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Don't forget that this scenario is one of John's recent mods which gives Japan several basketfuls of goodies. I am not sure of the land part of the bonuses, but I am sure there would be some extra power there.

The main thing he lacks is substantial numbers of true amphibs. Without the early game amphib unloading bonus and with a very large USN at this point, the unload phase for any really major re-take is curtains for him. He just can't hang around an island 5-7 days in this era, carriers or no carriers.

Whether John understands that remains to be seen.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Don't forget that this scenario is one of John's recent mods which gives Japan several basketfuls of goodies. I am not sure of the land part of the bonuses, but I am sure there would be some extra power there.

The main thing he lacks is substantial numbers of true amphibs. Without the early game amphib unloading bonus and with a very large USN at this point, the unload phase for any really major re-take is curtains for him. He just can't hang around an island 5-7 days in this era, carriers or no carriers.

Whether John understands that remains to be seen.

Yeah, this. This is why Japan can't retake island bases at all. He'd either have to use massive numbers of ships just to land a division, or hang around to unload over 3 days with even a moderate number of ships. That's carrier bait, especially with no real LBA in the equation.

[Canoerebel]

John will have trouble mounting amphibious ops for the reasons you guys are noting, but the problem for me is that eventually Death Star will steam far, far, far away from Big Tent. At least, I think that's going to happen, though I'm currently re-evaluating all options. With the carriers away he might be able to concentrate effectively using bombardment TFs and carriers to whittle down my supply and then take bases that would otherwise be difficult or impossible. That's one reason I selected island targets - to force him to engage in separate landings (as opposed to a place where he could march overland to other bases).

To lower his chances of success, I'll leave behind two or three combat TFs. By then, the airfields will be built big. I think this combination will be difficult for him to overcome, so that the next big op would be underway, thus forcing John to shift focus.

All that is kind of speculative, but I can see advantages to mounting the next big op through Big Tent rather than forsaking it for weeks or even months.

I do think John is focused on defending Darwin, as you guys have stated. I think that's counterproductive for him. Eventually Darwin becomes unsustainable for Japan, and I'd think that's the case here. It's nearly '44 and he's dealing with a bad carrier ratio. How long does he think a Japanese Australia is viable?

But I don't blame him for trying. The odds may be against him, but if he draws the right cards, or if luck smiles upon him, it might get tough for me in Big Tent.

[SuluSea]

Agree with many responses on this page. It looks like John is making a mistake attempting to reinforce and fighting forward instead of taking the medicine withdrawing when possible and setting up prepared defenses at the next best place of defense.

The good news for Dan is John is reacting to his moves and looks to be throwing around his forces with little
to no prep.

Again looking forward to the next big operation.[:)]