Holding the Philippines

[sprior]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

After a year's self-imposed hiatus from the game

Really good to see you back. Something of a small Renaissance in the forums of late. I hope we can look forward to your observations on some of the AAR's. Your insight and with always added something to the discourse.

Nice of you to say, John. If you've been paying more attention to the real (e.g., non-Mandrake) AARs, which would you recommend I start sniffing around?

What's wrong with our AARs? We even won a game.

[Shark7]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

If you have the correct assets in place, you can really take it to early Japanese aggression in the DEI [8D]

This really showcases the weakness of the AI and the reason why you have to restrain yourself and play as historically as possible for the AI to have anything close to a fighting chance. It is incredibly easy to break the AI, and it just can not adapt. It will just keep trying the same thing over and over, and getting the same bad results.

[Leandros]

ORIGINAL: Shark7

This really showcases the weakness of the AI and the reason why you have to restrain yourself and play as historically as possible for the AI to have anything close
to a fighting chance. It is incredibly easy to break the AI, and it just can not adapt. It will just keep trying the same thing over and over, and getting the same
bad results.

Much like the Japanese did in real life, then...[;)]....which wasn't always exploited properly by the Allies...Guadalcanal, Port Moresby.

Why give the AI a chance? Much of the Japanese successes came about because they WERE given a chance. But, that is just my opinion.

Fred

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: sprior

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


Really good to see you back. Something of a small Renaissance in the forums of late. I hope we can look forward to your observations on some of the AAR's. Your insight and with always added something to the discourse.

Nice of you to say, John. If you've been paying more attention to the real (e.g., non-Mandrake) AARs, which would you recommend I start sniffing around?

What's wrong with our AARs? We even won a game.

Absolutely nothing wrong with your AARs, mate. Especially since they're the self-professed "worlds' worst AARs". I love 'em.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Shark7
This really showcases the weakness of the AI and the reason why you have to restrain yourself and play as historically as possible for the AI to have anything close to a fighting chance. It is incredibly easy to break the AI, and it just can not adapt. It will just keep trying the same thing over and over, and getting the same bad results.

Technically, this was the AI's first effort to take Ternate with two IDs worth of troops.

But it's exquisitely germane to the OPs question. Against a human opponent, this would likely never happen. Against the computer, it's possible to drop the entirety of the DEI invasion on its head. Which makes it possible to salvage the Philippines for the vast majority of players (those that exclusively play against the AI). The first thing I have to do to salvage the Philippines is to delay and / or deflect additional southern Japanese expansion in the DEI.

I also differ from the 'play as historical as possible' for the AI to have a chance. It's the whole butterfly effect writ large. If I get a lucky roll on a surface intercept and wipe up KB accidentally, should that be my problem? If, in my game, an old S-boat puts 2 tin fish into Zuikaku and she explodes in early January 1942, should I feel ashamed? Should I permit ahistorical IJN Kido Butai thrusts at random points in the Pacific? Must I not touch the game controls until Japan's full expansion in May 1942?

Other than learning the game interface, the raison d'etre of the AI is to get beaten. Badly. HOW badly one can brutalize the AI is the active question. I intend to find out.

[Leandros]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


Technically, this was the AI's first effort to take Ternate with two IDs worth of troops.

But it's exquisitely germane to the OPs question. Against a human opponent, this would likely never happen. Against the computer, it's possible to drop the
entirety of the DEI invasion on its head. Which makes it possible to salvage the Philippines for the vast majority of players (those that exclusively
play against the AI). The first thing I have to do to salvage the Philippines is to delay and / or deflect additional southern Japanese expansion in the DEI.

Ref you mentioning Ternate (Moluccans?), I experienced the same but only after he was denied taking Menado. You, know, in RL much of the same forces were supposed
to be used against the various Moluccan Allied bases. If you destroy the Menado landing force (and the one invading Davao before that), he won't have anything left
to take Ambon. Ambon and Menado are crucial. Would have been the same in RL. He would have to do the same as he did when the taking of Bataan was stalled, wait till
he can take forces from else-where. Same with the forces that finally took Bataan, they were transferred from Malaya after the fall of Singapore. If Singapore had
held up these forces would not have been able for the capture of Bataan - and Corregidor.

And Mindanao was not attacked in earnest before after Bataan fell. Talking about Domino effect....[;)]

Just my opinion.

Fred

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

My goal is to break the AI and win the game (for the Allies) in 1942. Anything short of that is a failure for me. I'm playing scenario 1 with 'historical' difficulty.

Curiosity from a newish player ?

Not to critic just an understanding.

You exactly mean: Invade the Home Island and occupy Tokyo by the end of 1942 ? No Atom Bomb will be available of course.

You are not referring to a victory point margin ?

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: Leandros

ORIGINAL: Shark7

This really showcases the weakness of the AI and the reason why you have to restrain yourself and play as historically as possible for the AI to have anything close
to a fighting chance. It is incredibly easy to break the AI, and it just can not adapt. It will just keep trying the same thing over and over, and getting the same
bad results.

Much like the Japanese did in real life, then...[;)]....which wasn't always exploited properly by the Allies...Guadalcanal, Port Moresby.

Why give the AI a chance? Much of the Japanese successes came about because they WERE given a chance. But, that is just my opinion.

Fred

I fully agree with Ser Chickenboy and Leandros.

To play passively through 1942 would frankly be extremely boring for either side.

As the Allies : To sit back and take it on the chin, underestimate your opponents, adopt unrealistic tactical plans with political considerations (i.e. ABDA), etc, etc, ad naseum. Why?

The purpose of the AI (regardless of level) is to be defeated by the application of superior supply management, exploitation of weakness, and better combined tactics.

All of course with a slight advantage called "perfect hindsight" [8D]

--

I may be a bit of an apologist for the AI but frankly I think it is wonderful in light of the "slight advantage" of perfect hindsight.

Is it linear ? Yes - its a script. It will try to achieve the same objective over and over till it cannot.

But it manages hundreds of orders each turn with thousands of variables. Its has 13(?) random levels of aggressiveness that you will not be sure of till into the game. It can / should be exploited in its linear thinking; however it will effectively punch and counter punch / raid to your own objectives ~ at least in my experience.

(August 1943 - PDU off - Historic / Hard difficulty alternating month by month)

Can you hold the Philippines ?

Evidently yes (but I cannot yet).

In fairness to the real world situation at the time; this would be an 'all in gamble' in supporting MacArthur and company with most or all available US assets months after Pearl Harbor. Ships scattered. Merchant Marine prepared to risk their very lives every run. Even with PDU on you would only have limited assets that were available and production was not ramped up. Your enemy has air superiority qualitatively at the very least.

If CICPAC won that "all in the Philippines' argument with the combined Joint Chiefs of staff I would think a 2000 Political / Victory Point penalty would be an appropriate expenditure of achieving that consensus ???

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Macclan5
You are not referring to a victory point margin ?

I am referring to a VP 3:1 (Allies: Japanese) margin by the end of 1942. This in and of itself will be challenging. If I lose either Luzon's LCUs or Singapore's LCUs, that's a chunk of points that I have to treble to offset. If I lose those, it may *not* be possible to get 3:1 Allies: Japanese VP margin even if I hold Java-I'm not sure.

The invasion of the home islands and their successful occupation by the end of 1942 may be asking a bit much-even against the AI. I'll keep you posted though.

[Alpha77]

Chickenboy I know you are much better and experienced commander, but I tell ya even in my 1st game I was able to win vs. the IJ AI, I believe the message came in 43 tho. But you can do it in late 42 you are right. The AI will "lose" it after the offensive actions are done for the Japanese then it will become "clueless" what to do so to speak [;)] But it still can be fun to reach a certain goal vs. the AI too. Also I suck mostly in nav combat (as my current PBM shows) but I can not remember to have lost many cruisers let alone BBs or CVs vs. the AI [:'(]

In my 2nd game IJ vs. Allies I can only remember to have lost 2 CAs vs the Force Z (which was NOT sunk by planes) right at turn 2 or 3...the AI would even save its ships somehow they got back to Aden, but also somehow the AI never managed to repair them fully and they never were seen again (I mean POW and Repulse)...

Btw. to defend the Phils send supply and fighters there, the AI will send waves of bombers even if escorted you can shoot them all down. Edit2: Also it is possible the AI will not move its stack as "one" but the faster units (tanks) move ahead. You can beat those singly units if you use ALL of yours to sally out of Manila or Clark etc. Then move back in fast ofc.

Edit3: I do not wish to bash the AI in this game so much, after all any strategy game out there has the main problem with the AI and it is really good for beginners or to have a faster game

[Macclan5]

Thanks [:D]

I would see that what you describe is possible if still beyond my new-bie talent.

Albeit it still must take some amount of 'luck' to hunt down and destroy a significant portion of the KB for example (or good scouting, Land AC, anticipation etc) otherwise the KB will in fact prevent you achieving your specific base conquest aims.

It must also depend upon the aggressiveness of the script driving the "historic expansion level" ??

[pontiouspilot]

In 6 x PBEMs I have only lost Manila once...another pending but in early May. At level 3 forts with 1200 AV it will take opponent some level of effort to overcome. I find that Manila is the best redoubt notwithstanding that Dugout Doug did not. It has a port to try to sneak supplies into. Step 1 is consolidating all troops into Manila. Step 2 is evacuating the planes and Engs you don't need. You need to keep some fighters to allow you time to build forts up. They won't build if you are bombed every day. Then use every scow you can find to try to sneak supplies in. You may as well use the big fleet subs too since they can't sink anything with torpedoes. I clean out places like Kendari etc. Unless your opponent sits a surface combat TF in close proximity to Manila Bay you would surprised what you can sneak in. I have snuck ships in from Seattle. If he does park someone on doorstep then mine them, torpedo them and even use your Cats for short range naval attack. Often they go home. I got lucky and sank Hagura on the doorstep with a Cat once.

In Mindanao (Cagayan) I form a secondary redoubt with everyone on the island. It's airfield forms a nice bridge too and from Manila.

[Leandros]

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

If CINCPAC won that "all in the Philippines' argument with the combined Joint Chiefs of staff I would think a 2000 Political / Victory Point penalty would be an
appropriate expenditure of achieving that consensus ???

In my "alternative" book series, "Saving MacArthur", the President himself is the aggressive party. Don't think CINCPAC would ever be able to convince the JCS. Or
want it, for that matter.

A pre-requisite is also that the Aussies and Dutch are partly in on it. This was the basis for my first full game against the AI - which is still going on. The British
(and the Chinese) I didn't touch much for many months, they had their own problems.

You can "read all about it" here: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B018F2QMEW

Fred

[Macclan5]

Indeed Fred [:D]

I have followed your AAR and thoughts abeit silently.

Rather more difficult to comment as you are on a specific journey. I am certain the game is 'one of many tools' in your arsenal.

I am interested and applaud your for the effort.

John

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Macclan5
Albeit it still must take some amount of 'luck' to hunt down and destroy a significant portion of the KB for example (or good scouting, Land AC, anticipation etc) otherwise the KB will in fact prevent you achieving your specific base conquest aims.

This is true. Fortunately for me, KB split, with 3 CVs going N around Borneo to bang on Singapore and Sumatra and 3 CVs staying around the Celebes supporting landings there. The southern group frittered their air power away by attacking (defended) airfields and getting airgroups chewed up. Then S-38 (Luzon revenged!) put two TTs into Zuikaku south of the Celebes. That was enough for me to commit Enterprise and Lexington, which were biding their time on the IO side of Java. The combined air strikes crushed both Soryu and Hiryu for no damage in return.

Yes, luck was a factor. The submarine torpedoing Zuikaku was pretty key. But "serendipity favors the prepared mind". Having a mailed fist waiting for the opponent's guard to drop requires some preparation, timing and willingness to recognize, accept and commit to risk.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

In 6 x PBEMs I have only lost Manila once...another pending but in early May. At level 3 forts with 1200 AV it will take opponent some level of effort to overcome. I find that Manila is the best redoubt notwithstanding that Dugout Doug did not. It has a port to try to sneak supplies into. Step 1 is consolidating all troops into Manila. Step 2 is evacuating the planes and Engs you don't need. You need to keep some fighters to allow you time to build forts up. They won't build if you are bombed every day. Then use every scow you can find to try to sneak supplies in. You may as well use the big fleet subs too since they can't sink anything with torpedoes. I clean out places like Kendari etc. Unless your opponent sits a surface combat TF in close proximity to Manila Bay you would surprised what you can sneak in. I have snuck ships in from Seattle. If he does park someone on doorstep then mine them, torpedo them and even use your Cats for short range naval attack. Often they go home. I got lucky and sank Hagura on the doorstep with a Cat once.

In Mindanao (Cagayan) I form a secondary redoubt with everyone on the island. It's airfield forms a nice bridge too and from Manila.

I was lucky enough once to sink CA Atago and CL Jintsu with 500 lb bombs from P-40Es flying at 1000 feet. They had almost no training in LowNav but at that altitude hits are very likely. I have also used the P-26s and p-34s in the Philippines on LowNav to hit transports and DDs. Their bombs may be small but a few hits with fires can sink these smaller IJN ships.