OT: Philippines Allies with China/Russia-WitP:Modern Times

[geofflambert]

Duterte is a psychopath. Reminds me of another one we're dealing with but worse.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Anachro

The PRC itself is blasphemy given the large majority of the Chinese blood spilled in the 2nd Sino-Japanese War was Nationalist blood. Meanwhile, Mao and his cronies went off to the mountains to hide and bide their time till everything blew over. History happens; and sometimes, you hate it.

I don't know much about the Sino-Japanese war but I was under the impression that both Nationalist and Communist troops lost millions of soldiers. Wasn't it the Communists that gave the Japanese a big setback at Hankow or Wuchow with an operation they knew would lead to the loss of hundreds of thousands of their troops when the Japanese brought in reinforcements?

It is estimated that only about 3% of the total casualties taken by Chinese forces in WWII were from the Red Chinese forces. They were not as involved in the conflict as they or many would have you believe. The reasons are many and it was a bit more complex than Anachro states. The Reds were virtually wiped out by the Nationalist at the time the real fighting started with the Japanese. They were truly impoverished and not in much position to pose a threat to either the Japanese or Nationalists. They wisely chose to avoid major fighting with either side and primarily spent the war recovering from their pre-war disasters and consolidating their hold on the territory that they did hold. That territory held little to no strategic value to the Japanese, so Japan was content to leave them alone as well. Both Mao and Chaing were well aware of the global situation and knew that the Japanese were going to go down and be defeated elsewhere, and eventually would have to leave China. That is why their focus was on the real political threat that they both perceived to be which was internal not external. The conflict in China was a complex maze of political and national issues and involved a heck of a lot more than just Reds vs Nationalists. I don't think that it can be explained in simple generalizations.

[bobdina]

he changed his mind http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/worl ... /92526252/

[geofflambert]

He's not changed, I think the Chinese should treat him in a similar fashion as they do Kim Jong Un. China may be the only place he can travel outside of the Philippines without being arrested and shipped off to The Hague.

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: bobdina
he changed his mind

Are you sure? China has to be Plan B. Original Plan A is extort the US. He might succeed go figure

[Big B]

+1 I have to agree

ORIGINAL: crsutton
....

It is estimated that only about 3% of the total casualties taken by Chinese forces in WWII were from the Red Chinese forces. They were not as involved in the conflict as they or many would have you believe. The reasons are many and it was a bit more complex than Anachro states. The Reds were virtually wiped out by the Nationalist at the time the real fighting started with the Japanese. They were truly impoverished and not in much position to pose a threat to either the Japanese or Nationalists. They wisely chose to avoid major fighting with either side and primarily spent the war recovering from their pre-war disasters and consolidating their hold on the territory that they did hold. That territory held little to no strategic value to the Japanese, so Japan was content to leave them alone as well. Both Mao and Chaing were well aware of the global situation and knew that the Japanese were going to go down and be defeated elsewhere, and eventually would have to leave China. That is why their focus was on the real political threat that they both perceived to be which was internal not external. The conflict in China was a complex maze of political and national issues and involved a heck of a lot more than just Reds vs Nationalists. I don't think that it can be explained in simple generalizations.

[oaltinyay]

ORIGINAL: Rusty1961

https://www.yahoo.com/news/duterte-meet ... 08788.html

Wow. I would say this is the biggest set-back since Saigon fell or Pearl Harbor was bombed.

Looks like Viet Nam is now surrounded, Thailand is in trouble and the tanker traffic to Japan had better finder a route from the US instead.

Head-spinning.

I've always hoped a modern-version of WitP would be produced. It would be hot!

times come and go and alliances and balances shift, change etc. what's so different about it ? Or are you worried for the interests of the US ?

[GetAssista]

As long as US remains industrial and, what is more important, innovation powerhouse things will be fine geopolitically. And this is assured for like a dozen years at least with the current system, harder to predict tech farther these days. Everyone and their dog considers US assets the safest, and US debt the most desirable to invest to. Whatever squabbles are usually caused by someone bargaining for more US favors, or using US as a convenient scarecrow for internal reasons like NK or Russia.

[MakeeLearn]

"I was only kidding we are still friends. See Iam smiling to you face"[:)]


US to provide $180-M aid to Philippines, Fiscal year 2017 is from Oct. 1, 2016 to Sept. 30, 2017

[TulliusDetritus]

ORIGINAL: GetAssista
As long as US remains industrial and, what is more important, innovation powerhouse

As if that was doable. It is not... since the 60s when profits in the productive economy diminished and therefore speculative operations made sense. You can't blame then. Add to this the later industrial delocalization. Again, you can't blame them.

The only good thing is that China (or the Yellow Peril some or many of you fear) will possibly end up doing exactly the same, producing manufactures abroad and precipitate her own doom, just like the West (Germany an exception) is doing as we speak [:D]

Africa anyone as the next big thing? [:D]

As for innovation powerhouse, why would you invent, research when you're not producing anymore? It does not make any sense.

This is a train crash in slow motion. And the many personages of this tragicomedy (since the 60s) were in fact following the rules. Socially speaking you cannot blame them. I don't.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

ORIGINAL: GetAssista
As long as US remains industrial and, what is more important, innovation powerhouse

As if that was doable. It is not... since the 60s when profits in the productive economy diminished and therefore speculative operations made sense. You can't blame then. Add to this the later industrial delocalization. Again, you can't blame them.

The only good thing is that China (or the Yellow Peril some or many of you fear) will possibly end up doing exactly the same, producing manufactures abroad and precipitate her own doom, just like the West (Germany an exception) is doing as we speak [:D]

Africa anyone as the next big thing? [:D]

As for innovation powerhouse, why would you invent, research when you're not producing anymore? It does not make any sense.

This is a train crash in slow motion. And the many personages of this tragicomedy (since the 60s) were in fact following the rules. Socially speaking you cannot blame them. I don't.

I think the trend of exporting production to countries with the cheapest labour is slowing down simply because there is no security for the investment. Unstable governments, madmen leaders, terrorists, nationalists, etc. can all cause a huge investment to go "POOF" in one awful day. Until these countries get their security act in order they are very-high risk. Mexico was the Decentralization Mecca for quite some time but narco-gangs have made the area so dangerous that no one wants to invest more there.

I don't agree on the "why research when you aren't producing?" comment. There is lots of money to be made in licensing out new patents and designs. And advances in molecular biology are going to result in bacteria making drugs and other chemicals at a fraction of current costs, with little side effects. Production labs will be springing up all over Western countries. The next economy will be based on Knowledge, not factories.

[oaltinyay]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

...

I think the trend of exporting production to countries with the cheapest labour is slowing down simply because there is no security for the investment. Unstable governments, madmen leaders, terrorists, nationalists, etc. can all cause a huge investment to go "POOF" in one awful day. Until these countries get their security act in order they are very-high risk. Mexico was the Decentralization Mecca for quite some time but narco-gangs have made the area so dangerous that no one wants to invest more there.

I don't agree on the "why research when you aren't producing?" comment. There is lots of money to be made in licensing out new patents and designs. And advances in molecular biology are going to result in bacteria making drugs and other chemicals at a fraction of current costs, with little side effects. Production labs will be springing up all over Western countries. The next economy will be based on Knowledge, not factories.

I totally aggree on the last paragraph. However, this will only lead to a deeper divide. The thing is u cant sleep well when half of the house is sick, hungry or both. I expect that there will be a serious 'equalizer' singularity that will homogenize the globe at some time in the future...

[TulliusDetritus]

BBFanboy, I'm pretty certain China was the culprit in the Mexican case [:)] The theory was great in principle: the US-Canada-Mexico thing would boost the poorest country, industries would appear like mushroms etc etc.

But China spoiled the whole thing: a really tough and ruthless competitor. You're evidently 100% right about the security thing.

As for the technology thing, there's a famous example. Watt's invention was key for Industrial Revolution, but the Ptolemaic Egypt already knew the principle and created an automaton. The thing is inventions usually appear when they are socially needed. And it follows IMO that if you don't need an invention why should you waste your time, money and energies?

The future hypothetical knowledge society sounds nice but let me ask one thing: when a hypothetical TF38 (produced by a society that kept industrial production) will appear near your coast, this knowledge alone will stop the hostile TF? [:)]

That's the dilemma we are facing now in the West [:)]

[rustysi]

ORIGINAL: bobdina

he changed his mind http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/worl ... /92526252/

He's playing both ends against the middle. Nothing new.

[Treetop64]

Either that, or he is genuinely the type that doesn't know how to put his head in gear before opening his mouth.

For Duterte, Dunning-Kruger is in full effect.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: szmike

Not to try any flame, so it will be first and last comment on this, but why is it "correct" to always follow Americans, but "not correct" to change course?

Talk about megalomania

Not magalomania. Just clear-eyed understanding that the change of course will be irreversible once it has been made. Do you think the Chinese will let an inferior peon (the way they view the Philippinos) out of their grasp if they change their mind? Do you think that they care a whit about written promises about freedoms they made in the past once they have the Philippines in hand? KAFF (Hong Kong) KAFF. KAFF (Tibet) KAFF.

The People's Republic of China-in particular Xi-is nationalistically bent and expansive. Welcome the trade Trojan Horse at your own Peril.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

The PI is about to find out the difference between living under Uncle Sugar's hegemony and Uncle Xi's hegemony.

Cheers,
CC

Yup. Two very different experiences. I only hope that they can change their minds before they are pawns in another Co-East Asia Prosperity Sphere redux.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Anthropoid

ORIGINAL: Leandros

ORIGINAL: Anthropoid

Concerning. However, whenever Chinese Imperialism is involved I always remind myself of one thing: China is a powder keg. One cannot simultaneously promote modern development and autocratic repression, eventually something must give. Prior to Xi taking office, there were some overtures coming from China that the new leader would be a reformer, who would carry China even further toward the Western model of freedom, transparency and due process. This has not come to pass, and if anything China has regressed some in terms of individual liberty. The power structure in control of China are operating on borrowed time and their aggressive expansionism are likely in part an attempt to compensate for this deficiency.

As such, I'm more concerned about a civil war in China than I am about China exerting more formal "control" over territories than they already exert.

You're not talking about the US of A...?.....[;)]....

Fred

An epidemic of apathy and cynicism is not likely to lead to a civil war. Plus American citizens can mouth off and say pretty much anything they want. As long as they don't post state secrets to wikileaks, they have little to fear from the gubmint (at this point).

The U.S. is, indeed, an ailing young-adult nation but it was born with a coherent and reasonable vision and it may well recover and experience still more "Golden Ages." Certainly, the vast majority of humanity have migrated toward the broad outlines of the "American way" both geographically, culturally, ideologically, technologically. The world is so embroiled with the United States at this point, it seems unlikely that many who cast disparaging views her way would in fact like to see her go down, and even if they do, they are in a distinct minority. The United States remains the most popular nation on Earth, and the center of global attention, whether it continues to exemplify the ideals on which it was founded or not.

China is a critically ill ancient society which transformed from an autocratic feudal society into a revolutionary anti-colonial society and thence into a "communist" autocracy, indeed a true ideologically-based tyranny. Since that time, China has been forced by history to transform itself into something for which there are no exact precedents in world history: a state-controlled neo-mercantilist pirate society, with nostalgic connections to its "communist" autocratic roots and well-entrenched traditions of supremacist intolerance toward all forms of "diversity" (thought, identity, and rhetoric) which are not sanctioned by the ruling regime.

The clock is ticking for China, and when the bell tolls it is not likely to be pleasant or pretty for any of us, because it is certainly true that China is also deeply embroiled throughout global commerce and finance.

ORIGINAL: Leandros

ORIGINAL: Rusty1961

https://www.yahoo.com/news/duterte-meet ... 08788.html

Wow. I would say this is the biggest set-back since Saigon fell or Pearl Harbor was bombed.

Looks like Viet Nam is now surrounded, Thailand is in trouble and the tanker traffic to Japan had better finder a route from the US instead.

Head-spinning.

I've always hoped a modern-version of WitP would be produced. It would be hot!

I don't understand this "allies with China/Russia". Is there a war on?

Fred

Many, as you well know; and few of which can be noted to be conflicts over which China or Russia or many Western nations share common goals and interests. China and Russia remain adversaries to "the West" for various reasons, with Western caution, suspicions and/or militarism being a minor contributor.

Anthropoid-kudos for a very eloquent and well-thought out post. [&o]

[TulliusDetritus]

Guys, really, some of you need an urgent upgrade [:)]

Russia has an economy the size of Italy... a spectacular downfall on my book.

They are living off the savings made by a deceased... aka the USSR [;)] Nuclear arsenal, weapons...

Now put the word obsolete on this equation. These savings will last forever? An economy the size of Italy will be able to make a sophisticated upgrade?

That's science-fiction.