Lambs to the slaughter (Lowpe (J) vs Jocke; BillBrown (A)) Finished

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CaptBeefheart
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by CaptBeefheart »

How much manpower does Japan have? You gents are talking like rebuilding 14 divisions is no big thing.

Best of luck to your brother.

Cheers,
CC
Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.
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Crackaces
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Crackaces »

I am thinking the load cost in supplies is the limiting factor for what can be practically rebuilt. This without a discussion of devices from the pool that needs to be built. What are the complete load costs for these divisions?

I really think the initial expansion of the IJ perimeter using precious resources without a thought for building defensive hard points set into motion a situation I do not think the IJ can recover from.
It was a fun ride invading the WC, but now all the neglected bases and fortified positions especially Burma/DEI/Solomon's is going to allow the Allies a 6 month head start in my opinion ..

"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
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Bif1961
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Bif1961 »

Those Japanese will be the first up Penn AVE in DC, but as prioners. It is your Stalingrad. The unraveling will start slowly but it will move faster as you don't have the resources to back fill the planned defensive positions.
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Lokasenna
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

How much manpower does Japan have? You gents are talking like rebuilding 14 divisions is no big thing.

Best of luck to your brother.

Cheers,
CC

It isn't nothing.... but you could do it. You may be sacrificing any mid-war factory changes or expansions to do so, however in an PDU Off game that seems like it may be less of an issue. The Manpower (unsure if that's what you meant, or a more general 'manpower') and HI cost isn't what would hurt - it's the supplies.

An IJA "heavy infantry" division TOE would cost (in supplies):
**(load cost of the squads in CONUS is actually 19, but on 1/43 they change)
324 squads * 17 load = 5508
48 combat engineers * 16 load = 768
54 HMG * 10 load = 540
18 AT guns * 7 load = 126
18 70mm guns * 6 load = 108
12 75mm guns * 8 load = 96
12 motor squads * 17 load = 204
17 light tanks * 7 load = 119
18 AAMGs * 4 load = 72
5 engineers * 12 load = 60
25 motorized support * 15 load = 375
425 support * 12 load = 5100

Total load cost (which should be supply cost of rebuilding) = 13076

So it's not nothing.... but that's only about a day's surplus supply production on Honshu in Scen 2. Presumably a little more than a day's surplus in Scen 1.

For the weaker divisions, you can reduce this by about 45 squads, a like number of support, and many of the guns. That would drop the cost to the 11-12K range for a weaker division.
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JohnDillworth
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by JohnDillworth »

How much of an experience hit do the rebuilt units take? Because this Schwerpunkt looks like the equivalent of the whole 6th Army
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
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Canoerebel
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Canoerebel »

Jeff undoubtedly would prefer to avoid the novel experience of Japan recovering from a massive debacle like this one (hey, Jeff, I too am a veteran of the huge defeat experience), but it will be challenging for him and interesting for the reader to see how he responds. He'll be taxed to invent novel ways to slow the Allied advance, but he'll surprise himself by what he's able to do and he'll be a stronger player for it.

On the surface of things it doesn't seem worthwhile to send scores of naked transports to the West Coast in what seems to be a longshot Dunkirk. But the bean counters and accountants might figure out that it is worth it, potentially.

I think Jeff might consider a new name for this AAR: Buyer's Remorse.

But he'll do a good job going forward.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Lokasenna
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

How much of an experience hit do the rebuilt units take? Because this Schwerpunkt looks like the equivalent of the whole 6th Army

That depends. If you're rebuilding completely, they start really low. I want to say 40? Maybe 25? They will train up, however.

If you're rebuilding from a fragment, then each replaced device has a chance to lower the experience of the unit towards the national training average (which is 50 for the IJA, IIRC). So at minimum they would still have 50 experience.
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Lowpe
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Lowpe »

Brother got his pacemaker and is doing exceptionally well, returns to work today! He got an experimental version, 41st in the program, no leads and so has an expiration date when the battery fails. Unbelievable science.

In other news, car seems pretty much shot.

and in other news, the war continues:

Feb 13, 1943

Japan sweeps in the western empire and gets about 15-20 Allied fighters downed for 5 zeroes.

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Canoerebel
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Canoerebel »

You mean Feb. 13, 1943, right?
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Lowpe
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You mean Feb. 13, 1943, right?
Oops, fixed.
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Canoerebel
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Canoerebel »

Jeff, your readers know the situation on the West Coast (especially those reading both AARs, as I am), but we'd love to get your thoughts about your long-term plans. You fight longer and harder than most players; you've just been through an end-game situation, and now you're in 1943 in this game. Tell us what's going on in that mind of yours. And I'm not talking about a paragraph or five done in five or ten minutes. Take your time and begin to share detailed thoughts over the coming days and weeks. Given the resilience and determination you've shown in the past, I think this game will veer even further into interesting and unusual territory.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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obvert
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by obvert »

Yep. As CR mentions above, very curious to hear your thoughts on this one going forward.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
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Lowpe
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Lowpe »

Sorry no picture today, as I have to car shopping.

---

My sweeps don't fly in the west; and in Hollywood, 13 Allied units show up east of LA. Perhaps I can surprise him, but I am guessing it is 10 divisions four of which are AFVs.


It will be bloody!
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Lowpe
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: obvert

Yep. As CR mentions above, very curious to hear your thoughts on this one going forward.

Yep, I have thought a lot about it and haven't nearly despaired. As I have said before I think Japan can suffer this kind of troop loss once.

More later as I get some free time....
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Lowpe
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Lowpe »

Horse show today, so not much time to post.


A few days have gone by, beat back the 1st attack with losses on both side east of LA. 1-1 attack with 0 forts. I got forts to 1, and perhaps 2 by the time of the next attack.

Splinters of Tojo IIb fight in the air, but just splinters. The squadrons are on their way back to Pearl.

Abandoned LA, will fight it out in the open, perhaps with a suicidal banzai charge before supply dries up.

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Lowpe
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Lowpe »

Now that Jocke needs to fly CAP, I am starting to sweep more.

Overall, in great shape fighters wise, r&d wise, and engine wise.

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DanSez
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by DanSez »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

...
Splinters of Tojo IIb fight in the air, but just splinters. The squadrons are on their way back to Pearl.

Curious, what do you have in Pearl Harbor and how far back are you considering the pull back in the Central Pacific given the situation to the South and the CBI?


The Commander's job is to orchestrate and direct the three major dimensions of combat - space, time and force. Shattered Sword, the Untold Story of the Battle of Midway
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Lokasenna
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Lokasenna »

You've fallen to the middle of page 2...

Your post-mortem of CONUS is hereby requested as a disciplinary measure.
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Encircled
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Encircled »

Any chance you could begin with "The war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage"
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Lowpe
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RE: Manila Falls

Post by Lowpe »

March 15, 1943

AAR woefully behind, but for the most part, except with some travel days, kept to 1 turn a day recently, but now I am in Thanksgiving holiday.

WestCoast has been beaten back to to here, & I have inflicted some losses but the end is near for a huge slug of Japanese troops.



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