Wrangling Loki - Mind_Messing (J) vs Lokasenna (A)

[mind_messing]

We're finally back on track after I took a fairly long break from the game for holidays, but we've resumed now.

As of the present game date, the Allies have put about 1500 AV ashore at Medan and unknown troops at one of the islands off-shore of Sumatra.

Day one strikes from the IJN are a complete disappointment, most don't fly. Some kamis do fly, and a single plane gets past the CAP, but misses a Brit CVE. C'est la guerre.

It's a blessing in disguise, as the KB will be on station as per plan C for day two. Convoys are set up to funnel combat troops into Sumatra and aviation support to Malaya.

In Thailand, after looking long and hard at the map, I'm pulling back from the Burma pan-handle. I feel the need to refocus my line around Bangkok and scrape up enough troops to clear out the abundant numbers of raiders wandering around Thailand and Vietnam. This theatre is a mess, but it's '44 and I'm Japan.

The general plan is to gather the best units to punch through from Bangkok to northern Vietnam, as I'd like to get those units into China for '45. The trash will fight and die holding Malaya, but the unrestricted stuff might get shipped out elsewhere, perhaps Sumatra, perhaps Luzon. We'll see.

I'm looking forward to getting back into this, seeing as the wheels are really starting to come off.

[mind_messing]

Turns have been slow on my end due to real life constraints, and I think we've only advanced as far as August 17th. Loka is away till Monday, so I will try to take the time to update the AAR. I couldn't update prior in good conscience with a turn sitting unfinished, so I haven't had time prior to now.

The last five turns represent, I think, the definitive turning point for this game. While my position has been slowly deteriorating for the past few months, now we'll start to see it approach terminal velocity. So, it should be fun.

Anyways, likely updates to come tomorrow. I'll need to go over the past few turns again to provide a coherent picture of developments.

[mind_messing]

August 13th, 1944

A fairly quiet turn, all things considered.

Japanese land-based air has a go at the shipping off Sabang, but the strike isn't a large one, and only a few planes get through CAP. Those that make it miss an Allied CVE.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Sabang at 44,70

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 115 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 20
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 9

Allied aircraft
Hellcat I x 15
FM-2 Wildcat x 18
F4U-1A Corsair x 17
F6F-3 Hellcat x 87

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 7 destroyed
Ki-49-IIb Helen: 6 destroyed

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
CVE Begum

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x Ki-49-IIb Helen flying as kamikaze
Kamikaze: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Landings at Sabang continue.

A Japanese surface force consisting of the CL Oi and some destroyers squares off with an Allied Fletcher squadron of Sansapor in New Guinea, but both withdraw in an inconclusive engagement.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Sorong at 83,105, Range 4,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Oi
DD Isonami
DD Sagiri
DD Amagiri
DD Ushio

Allied Ships
DD Bullard
DD Capps
DD Erben
DD Guest
DD Haggard
DD Hazelwood
DD Johnston
DD Miller
DD Sigourney

Some better news here later, when two Allied CL's wander into some torps:

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Sansapor at 84,106

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 52 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy: 6 damaged
Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
CL Mobile
CA Salt Lake City, Torpedo hits 1
CA Pensacola, Torpedo hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x Ki-67-Ia (T) Peggy launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

On the ground, the Allies attack again at Sansapor, dropping forts to 0, while Allied paratroopers try and fail to take Cam Rahn Bay by paratrooper assault. Evidently the French garrison manning the guns drives them off.

[mind_messing]

August 14th, 1944

The Black Day of the IJNAF

The 14th opens with a surface engagement off New Guinea, with the Oi task force wrestling with a smaller Fletcher force that the IJN comes away much worse off from.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Galeia at 79,101, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Oi, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Isonami, Shell hits 5, heavy fires
DD Sagiri
DD Amagiri, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Ushio, Shell hits 22, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DD Chauncey
DD Halford, Shell hits 3
DD Jenkins, Shell hits 6
DD Uhlmann

Betty's flying from Manado find and sink of one these destroyers later in the day, so it's an even trade.

The AM air phase is comprised mostly of scattered air attacks from Japanese land bases on the Allied ships off Sabang. Not hits are scored. Most squadrons fly either without being escorted or with insufficient escort to crack through the CAP.

The real action materializes in the PM phase when the KB makes it's contribution:

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Sabang at 44,70

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 156 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 51 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 13
A6M5b Zero x 59
B6N2 Jill x 55
B7A2 Grace x 60
D4Y3 Judy x 106

Allied aircraft
Hellcat I x 15
FM-2 Wildcat x 18
F4U-1A Corsair x 17
F6F-3 Hellcat x 80

Japanese aircraft losses Bye bye trained IJN pilot cadres
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
A6M5b Zero: 7 destroyed
B6N2 Jill: 12 destroyed, 5 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 3 destroyed by flak
B7A2 Grace: 8 destroyed, 11 damaged
B7A2 Grace: 2 destroyed by flak
D4Y3 Judy: 24 destroyed, 17 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 6 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
Hellcat I: 3 destroyed
FM-2 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVE Rudyerd Bay, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
DE Cauvery
CVE Begum, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
APD Barr
APA Calvert, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
xAP Cabarita
DD McKee
CA Baltimore
DD Worden, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
DD Hickox
DD McNair
DD Mertz
DE Steele, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
LSI(L) Dunedin Star
xAP Koolinda
DD The Sullivans
xAK Fort Dearborn
xAK Fort St Croix, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires
xAP Henry Dearborn
DD John Rodgers
DD Evans, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CLAA San Juan, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DE Thomason
xAK Fort Lajoie, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DD Stembel
xAP Glenbank
DD Saufley
xAK Nemiskan Park, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
xAP George Vancouver, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAP Baron Cawdor, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Careful placement of the KB ensures that there's no retaliation strike from the US carriers, but there's no hiding the fact that the rate of exchange for the Japanese was absolutely terrible. Still, considering it's late '44, I'm only mildly disappointed.

To top it all off, the Allies attack and take Sabang with heavy losses to the Japanese defenders:

Ground combat at Sabang (44,70)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 36535 troops, 524 guns, 275 vehicles, Assault Value = 1658

Defending force 12159 troops, 64 guns, 16 vehicles, Assault Value = 290

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Allied adjusted assault: 1229

Japanese adjusted defense: 35

Allied assault odds: 35 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied forces CAPTURE Sabang !!!

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
E13A1 Jake: 5 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), disruption(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
7591 casualties reported
Squads: 114 destroyed, 124 disabled
Non Combat: 154 destroyed, 40 disabled
Engineers: 84 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 33 (20 destroyed, 13 disabled)
Vehicles lost 14 (14 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 4

Allied ground losses:
1593 casualties reported
Squads: 19 destroyed, 120 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 12 destroyed, 34 disabled
Guns lost 35 (4 destroyed, 31 disabled)
Units pursuing 2

To top things off, Cam Rahn Bay falls to the paratroopers.

The first of many hastily organised reinforcement convoys departs Tokyo for Malaya. The great exodus from Thailand is set in motion.

[obvert]

It only gets worse, sorry to say! [;)]

Now it's about how to trade VPs 1:1 while trying to have some fun! Not sure how many planes you lost but it looks like you picked up 220-50 ship VPs plus what ever planes the Allies lost in the air and on the CVEs. So for the day you're up a bit on the air strikes (shown), down a bit on the ground losses. Probably better than 1:1 though. [:)]

It does feel good to sink some stuff, and 50exp pilots will still get there when you have the number to push them through. If you can trap any of his forward units you could bag some permanent points there too. Can you?

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
Careful placement of the KB ensures that there's no retaliation strike from the US carriers, but there's no hiding the fact that the rate of exchange for the Japanese was absolutely terrible. Still, considering it's late '44, I'm only mildly disappointed.

Why do you say that rate of exchange was absolutely terrible for the Japanese? Sinking two CVEs and a handful of other ships seems to be a pretty good result for the Japanese here.

[Lowpe]

Agree! I have certainly lost a lot more planes for no gain.[:(]

[mind_messing]

Well, it works out at 330 Japanese planes for two Allied CVE's (80ish VP each) and 60 Allied planes, so it's a bit less than 1:1. The main issue is that it's gutted the KB's striking capacity for the next couple of weeks...

[mind_messing]

August 15th, 1944

This is a fairly routine turn. Japanese sweeps attack Sabang, and do slightly poorer than a 1:1 exchange. Allied Thunderbolt sweeps strike Bangkok and make the usual clean sweep of the CAP there.

Scattered Japanese strikes go for Allied shipping off Sumatra, but again, none of the strikes is large enough or heavily escorted enough to break past CAP, so Japanese air losses are again heavy.

Cleanup operations of the Allied paratroopers in Indochina begin, but Allied tanks on Sumatra push the battered survivors of Sabang back another hex.

August 16th, 1944

Allied forces start to offload at Sibolga, on the western coast of Sumatra while a American crusier force bombards the Japanese airbase at Georgetown. Luckily, the KB is in position for another 8 hex strike at shipping off Sibbolga, but the result is disapointing:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Sibolga at 44,79

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 10
A6M5b Zero x 55
B6N2 Jill x 30
B7A2 Grace x 16
D4Y3 Judy x 34

Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 38
F6F-3 Hellcat x 57
F6F-5 Hellcat x 34

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 4 destroyed
A6M5b Zero: 19 destroyed
B6N2 Jill: 11 destroyed, 5 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 1 destroyed by flak
B7A2 Grace: 2 destroyed, 3 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 19 destroyed, 4 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 2 destroyed

Allied Ships
xAP William P. McArthur
xAP John C. Calhoun
AKA Virgo
AKA Libra, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
xAP Rajula
APD Liddle
LSV Ozark
DMS Trevor
AKA Alhena
xAP Pundit
LCI-83, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
DD Quiberon

Allied ground losses:
393 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 23 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 6 destroyed, 1 disabled
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Sibolga at 44,79

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 9
B7A2 Grace x 20
D4Y3 Judy x 3

Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 31
F6F-3 Hellcat x 37
F6F-5 Hellcat x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 3 destroyed
B7A2 Grace: 10 destroyed
D4Y3 Judy: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

Thankfully, Japanese land based air, including kamikaze squadrons, at long last manage to pull off a reasonably organised strike. The result, while good, doesn't make up for the poor performance of the KB and the losses incurred.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Sibolga at 44,79

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 55 NM, estimated altitude 33,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 18 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 27
J2M3 Jack x 7
N1K2-J George x 8
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 8
Ki-84a Frank x 16

Allied aircraft
F4U-1A Corsair x 34
F6F-3 Hellcat x 53
F6F-5 Hellcat x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 13 destroyed
B6N2 Jill: 1 destroyed by flak
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
xAP Archbishop Lamy, Kamikaze hits 1, on fire
APD Liddle, Kamikaze hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AGC Appalachian, Kamikaze hits 4, and is sunk
xAP William S. Young, Kamikaze hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
xAP William P. McArthur
xAP William Kent, Kamikaze hits 2, on fire, heavy damage

Allied ground losses:
108 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x B6N2 Jill flying as kamikaze
Kamikaze: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

The troops the Allies manage to off-load will easily take Sibolga:

Ground combat at Sibolga (44,79)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 4333 troops, 20 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 161

Defending force 15570 troops, 172 guns, 357 vehicles, Assault Value = 691

Assaulting units:
18th Garrison Unit
33rd Road Const Co

Defending units:
2nd NZ Bde /3
25th Australian Bde /1
268th Motorised Bde /5
14th NZ Bde /3
II Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
11th PAVO Regiment
23rd Chindit Bde /1
144th USA Base Force /2
III Indian Corps
16th Indian Heavy AA Rgt /1
164th USA Base Force /1
Tenth USAAF Eng EAB /1
20th Indian Heavy AA Rgt /1
163rd USA Base Force /2

Elsewhere, continued nuisance paratrooper attacks in Indochina are being cleared up while the entirety of Japanese forces in the Indochina theatre prepare to withdraw.

In China, another force of six Chinese units on a long march have wandered out of the wilderness in the plains near Chungking. A mixed bag of bombers pulled from ASW duty and fighter squadrons training up are diverted to Chungking to strafe and bomb the Chinese units to burn up supply. Both Chungking and Chengtu are well defended with high forts, and a strong IJA division is a few days march away. This is a concern, as I really don't want the hoards of unspawned Chinese reappearing, but I'm fairly confident I can beat back this insurrection.

In New Guinea, Sorong still holds out, while at Timor, the Allies have landed more supply and are regularly making bombardment attacks. I'm looking forward to the day they make the first deliberate attack: level 5 forts in x2 terrain should make a horrible mess of the Allied attack.

[mind_messing]

August 17th to August 28th, 1944

Well, the wheels are off now!

New Guinea

The Allies land and take Boela. The next step is right into the teeth of several formidable Japanese bases, backed up by a size 9 field at Manado.

Local withdrawals of troops and aviation support is taking place around the New Guinea/DEI theatre as I'm trying to reorient my defence to deal with events elsewhere.

China

The wandering band of Chinese exiles appears to have failed in their attempt to re-open the Chinese theatre by seizing Chungking. The units appear to have scattered into the countryside, hotly pursued by IJA units.

DEI

The main show here.

The Allies are well on the way to taking Medan, despite the efforts of the Hiei and Kongo on a bombardment mission. The mission went badly wrong, leaving the battleships exposed to Allied carriers (bombardment mission coding strikes again!). Fortunately both battleships escape with only moderate damage to the Hiei, though the light cruiser Nagara is sunk.

The Allies capitalise on their success at Sumatra by throwing troops on to Malaya as well. At least two USMC divisions, plus US Army units and an Indian Brigade storm ashore at Georgetown. Local opposition will be minimal, as the regiments on garrison duty are away chasing down wandering partisan fragments.

[center]
Red - Japanese defensive positions.
Green - Recent Allied moves.[/center]

This isn't a real surprise, as I've suspected and feared a landing in Malaya since the paratrooper fragments started closing down the Bangkok-Singapore railroad. There's a sizeable body of reinforcements en-route to Singapore to respond to this crisis, but they're not in any significant strength to oppose the landing.

I intend to try and ram Singapore full of combat troops to try and maximise the advantage the forced shock attack into x2 terrain. Singapore's forts are at level 5, but combat troops are very thin on the ground. I have about 500 AV in Malaya, but nearly all of it is badly out of position chasing down fragments of paratrooper units. About 600 AV is 3-5 days sail from Singapore, so there will be a respectable garrison for a siege by the weeks end.

My main concern is if the Allied carriers decide to interfere with reinforcement attempts. Thankfully, the geography of the Malacca Straits makes this a move exposing the Allied carriers to a surface engagement. The Musashi and the Kongo are both sitting at Singapore, so they might make a full speed run if the Allied carriers wander too close.

At any rate, I'll be making a serious effort to pull out support troops and replace them with combat troops.

On Sumatra, I have five divisions moving to form a defensive line at Padang to prevent any overland campaign to Palembang. Additional aviation support and AA has been moved on to southern Sumatra, and more will likely arrive from Singapore.

My plans are as follows:

[center]
Black - Intended routes to move oil/fuel from the DEI to the Home Islands.
Purple - Airbases intended to cover the tankers routes.[/center]

The purple bases are to be my main airbases in an effort to contain the Allies when they clear Singapore and keep the fuel flowing. The five divisions on Sumatra should be sufficient to at least slow an overland campaign, so the next concern is keeping the fuel flowing out of Palembang in the face of Allied naval and air efforts.

To that end, I'm going to try and stage fuel from Palembang through Java, and then on to Manilla and the Home Islands. I'm sceptical as to how much success I'll have in this venture, but I may as well get my tankers sunk bringing fuel home than sitting in a port somewhere.

What IJN assets are in theatre (Musashi, Kongo, 5 CA and a dozen or so destroyers) will stand and die keeping the Malacca Straits closed and Palembang open. Musashi is too much of a fuel hog anyways to use anywhere else.

I'm writing off those ground units already in the DEI that are south of Singapore. That includes five divisions on Sumatra, five brigades on Java and about 2500 AV on Timor. I'm flying troops by the hundreds off Timor to Makassar every day, and this evacuation will continue as long as possible.

In other news, the great Thai exodus continues:

[center][/center]

Most of the IJA forces are railing to Udon Thani and marching to Vihn, where they'll set up a line of defence that hopefully might last the year. The abundant aviation support will mostly go to China in a bid to set China up for the late-war showdown.

Strategic Considerations

Well, the outer perimeter on the western half of the map is punctured and broken quite substantially. This means a fighting retreat to the inner perimeter is required. The Formosa-Philippines-Marianas axis is more or less ready. My priority now is to cost the Allies as much in time and materials as I can, while looking to limit my own losses.

The bulk of the combat ready ships of the IJN are deployed to the DEI. The remainder are split between Manilla and the Home Islands undergoing repairs and upgrades. The KB (sans 2 CV at Manilla) is at Hiroshima for upgrades, and will remain there until further notice.

VP's are a whisker off 1:1, so it will be anyone's game running in to 1945. The 1:1 ratio is, for me, the real indication that we've entered the late-game.

As far as I can tell, the Allies are not yet within effective strategic bombing range of the Home Islands, with the exception of Hokkaido, which I have strongly defended.

My hope is that it will take Loka what remains of 1944 to consolidate his recent gains before looking to bounce to the inner perimeter in 1945. Considering the vast quantity of men and materials the Allies have in the late-war, I don't have much hope that it will take that long. On the bright side, the wonderweapons are creeping closer with every passing day...

I will report on the industrial and resource situation later.

[Lowpe]

Very interesting reading, many thanks for a great update.[&o]

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Very interesting reading, many thanks for a great update.[&o]

The stringbag empire is starting to fall apart, but i'm embracing the approaching carnage.

[mind_messing]

The game is now in late September. Been very busy with work, so not much time to update.

Things are going badly, in general. However, take solace from the fact that I'm doing much better than Lowpe.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The game is now in late September. Been very busy with work, so not much time to update.

Things are going badly, in general. However, take solace from the fact that I'm doing much better than Lowpe.

Hey! Hurry up and lose already. I need more turns. [:'(]

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The game is now in late September. Been very busy with work, so not much time to update.

Things are going badly, in general. However, take solace from the fact that I'm doing much better than Lowpe.

Hey! Hurry up and lose already. I need more turns. [:'(]

I've not lost until he takes Tokyo from my cold, dead hands.

How is your own game going?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The game is now in late September. Been very busy with work, so not much time to update.

Things are going badly, in general. However, take solace from the fact that I'm doing much better than Lowpe.

Hey! Hurry up and lose already. I need more turns. [:'(]

I've not lost until he takes Tokyo from my cold, dead hands.

How is your own game going?

At 1 June 44. About 1.7:1 against. I have Marcus, Truk, Hollandia and vicinity, Rabaul, Timor, and some of the nearby islands. I am presently in the midst of a massive redeployment/axis shift for the next big phase. The most massive I've ever done.

Burma is a slog. Big stacks near Ramree. I landed at Pegu, and that's see-saw. Trying to cut the RR and strand his army in the Valley. Playing to wean him off supply. Lots of bombing, both strat and tactical.

His navy is in very good shape. A lot of jabbing and moving. Very few carriers lost by either, so I have to be very careful how far out I go or how long I stay anywhere.

We are playing with non-historical R&D, a mistake by me and one I will never repeat. Also Scen 2, so he has more troops than I need.

I'm trying a non-traditional 1944 route, and from what I can tell he's defending mostly a traditional route, which Japan pretty much has to, so we will see. I need some big VPs pools soon. Rangoon would be nice.

The game has slowed way down this summer. Some weeks only two-three turns. It's hard to keep track when I'm moving as much as I am. I'm hoping when baseball ends and the summer project list is over that things will pick up.

[mind_messing]

August 29th to October 10th, 1944

1944 is fun! More than a full game-month since my last update, and the map has changed drastically!

New Guinea/Eastern DEI

I may as well start with the front where the news is best. The Allies are still stationary around Sorong, and although they have taken Waigeo after a hard fight. Ambon falls into Allied hands as well, but the Allies seem to be in no rush to push past New Guinea and deal with the airbase complexes at Kendrai/Makassar or the Moluccas.

A reckless move on my part leads to be moving the CL Abukuma and escorting DD's to attempt to interdict Allied shipping off Ambon. They run right in to an Allied heavy cruiser force and get whacked. Scratch another IJN CL.

Supply shortages on Timor has caused the smaller artillery units to disapear, but the big combat units are in good condition and well dug in, so the situation is fairly stable here. Troops are being flown out from Timor to Makassar to help defend the Celebes.

This theatre is rapidly becoming a backwater with the Allied focus evident elsewhere.

[center][/center]

Central Pacific

The Allies break months of monotonous milk raids on isolated Japanese garrisons by landing at Ponope. Excellent timing, as I'd finished flying most of the good combat troops back to Truk.

The division that I'd garrisoned on Truk for the majority of the war has also been withdrawn. Instead of dying defending Truk, they'll die defending Takao on Formosa.

China

The Chinese troops that attempted to take Chungking have been beaten and are ruthlessly being hunted down.

A division and a regiment have been withdrawn from Urmuchi in northern China to help shore up the defenses of the mountain passes around Paoshan. While this front is in no danger at present, it's very open to the suicide attacks Loka likes to make with a couple corps of Chinese. A thousand AV, even Chinese AV and without supply, can still cause a great many problems...

Malaya/Western DEI

As expected, the Allies roll down the Malay Peninsular without much difficulty and seize Singapore. I took the decision to reinforce Palembang over Singapore as I felt that the chances of prolonged resistance on Sumatra were much higher than trying to hold Singapore. I think I've made the right call here, as the Allied advance on Sumatra seems to be stalling out around Padang, against three IJA divisions and a handful of Mixed Brigades.

Singapore has been transformed to a major Allied naval and air hub. 500 + fighters reported regularly by recon flights, as well as some 200 ships in the docks.

The naval and air battles around Singapore have been brutal. Japanese sweeps can't make much of a dent in the strong Allied CAP, and the IJN is slowly suffering a constant level of attrition that will soon lead to outright death.

The skies above Palembang are bitterly contested. The initial Allied bomber raid on the base came off as a rough draw, though damage to both airbase and IJN fighter groups was heavy. However, a combination of rotating air groups and LRCAP has managed to give me some breathing space to get repairs going, and additional engineers, as well as extra AA units are being shifted from Java to Sumatra.

Naval battles have developed a pattern, with IJN ships based from Palembang attempting to fend off raids from USN Fletchers. Usually the outcome is favourable to the IJN, however losses are starting to mount.

The only offensive action by the IJN consisted of an aggressive raid on Singapore with all the available IJN heavy cruisers - the results were disappointing - the IJN lost 3 heavy cruisers (Ashigari, Nachi, Myoko) in exchange for the Australian CL Perth and severely damaging the US BB South Dakota (40 shell hits, 3 torpedo hits: I suspect Allied DC efforts saved her). The losses of USN Fletchers in these surface engagements and to naval mines off Palembang probably evens out the destroyer losses.

The three remaining operational IJN heavy cruisers are laagered in Palembang behind dense minefields, while the Furutaka is getting a turret replaced in Batavia. The Musashi is sitting off Batavia as a reserve force to counter any Allied moves towards Oosthaven.

Singkawang still remains in Japanese hands, thanks to an extensive airlift from Java and Sumatra. However, the Allies were able to move troops beyond Sinkawang, landing at Miri, Brunei and Jesselton while their deathstar carrier fleet provided cover. These bases are or will soon be in Allied hands, but they lack support troops and are not built up, so have been kept suppressed by Japanese air raids from Balikipapan or the Philippines.

Most importantly, however, the oil and fuel is still flowing! The bottleneck is Ooosthaven at present, but there are still tankers moving from the DEI to Japan, and long may it continue! How long this will continue is open to questioning, but I'm counting every day as a blessing!

[center]

[/center]

Vietnam

The organized retreat from Thailand to Vietnam quickly developed into a rout as the Allied bomber force went to town on exposed Japanese units. Most of the IJA units managed to make a good getaway, but outright losses worked out at around 6 divisions and countless smaller artillery and support units.

I'm trying to make good these losses by swapping the bought-back remnants of the destroyed units with Home Island garrison divisions, backed up by reinforcements from China and Manchuria. I get a rush of reinforcements in early 1945, so I should have enough to form a sizeable blocking force to Allied movements by then.

The frontline is stable at Vinh, for now. The units cut off south of Vinh should make it out, despite the best efforts of the Chinese and Indian units running rampant in the area. If they can't march north to safety, I'm prepared to move them off by sea north to Hanoi, where I'm trying to dig a second defensive line.

Hanian has a token garrison and some aviation support to give it the appearance of being defended, but once the Allied air support catches up with the spearheads then it's game over for Hanian as a defensive bastion.

I doubt I'll be able to keep the Allied hordes out of China, but at the very least I will have till the end of the month while the Allied conduct mopping up operations in Thailand to dig fortifications and reinforce battered units.

The big fear I have here is a deep Allied landing at Pakhoi or on the open Chinese coast to the east, to cut off the units in Vietnam. I'm rushing troops to Hong Kong, and I have my operational carriers sitting at Pescaodres in case the Allied do attempt such a venture. It will be a risky venture, considering Canton, Hong Kong and Takao are all level 9 airbases, but it's well within the Allies capabilities at this point.

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IJN Attrition

To give you an idea of the slow death of the IJN, here are the ships I have left.

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Capital ships of the IJN available for combat operations. Most of the KB is in Hiroshima for repairs and upgrades[/center]

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IJN captial ships repairing or upgrading. I've done a good job of keeping the BB's out of harms way, but this had led to the heavy cruiser force suffering.[/center]

I plan to keep the KB and the BB's in reserve for that final decisive battle on the outer perimiter. To my mind, that's Luzon, Formosa or the Ryukyu's. Hopefully they'll get a good trade.

[Bullwinkle58]

From 30,000 feet, I think you're far too sanguine about the loss of Singapore. Once he's east of Sumatra is Sumatra really useful to you? Especially since he can operate out of Singers yard-wise, load-speed-wise, and AF-size-wise? Given the status of CRB and Saigon you're really pushed back to Manila any time he wants to get angry with his navy and B-29s. Enjoy what oil you can get out for now. It won't be much longer.

The DEI is what it is. He can bleed you, but he doesn't have to. I think you're correct to worry about forting up Formosa. It will happen faster than you think. Or somewhere similar. He's into the body and he's got heavy equipment to dig with. He broke the dermal layer getting ashore on Sumatra and northern Malaysia and the torso is full of soft, fleshy organs.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

From 30,000 feet, I think you're far too sanguine about the loss of Singapore. Once he's east of Sumatra is Sumatra really useful to you? Especially since he can operate out of Singers yard-wise, load-speed-wise, and AF-size-wise? Given the status of CRB and Saigon you're really pushed back to Manila any time he wants to get angry with his navy and B-29s. Enjoy what oil you can get out for now. It won't be much longer.

The DEI is what it is. He can bleed you, but he doesn't have to. I think you're correct to worry about forting up Formosa. It will happen faster than you think. Or somewhere similar. He's into the body and he's got heavy equipment to dig with. He broke the dermal layer getting ashore on Sumatra and northern Malaysia and the torso is full of soft, fleshy organs.

Sumatra's usefulness will only last as long as the oil/refinery complex does.

With it, Sumatra is a nice unsinkable airbase in easy range of Singers and has organic supply production. Without that, I'm evacuating everything to Java, and thence the PI. Hell, once I get the turn back I'll probably start withdrawing everything from Minadano south up to Luzon.

You are on to something, though. I'm stil considering Manila as a rear area base because the Allies haven't quite moved up yet. That needs to end.

Now you have me really worried, I've three BB's repairing at Manila and the CAP is only a hundred planes or so...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

From 30,000 feet, I think you're far too sanguine about the loss of Singapore. Once he's east of Sumatra is Sumatra really useful to you? Especially since he can operate out of Singers yard-wise, load-speed-wise, and AF-size-wise? Given the status of CRB and Saigon you're really pushed back to Manila any time he wants to get angry with his navy and B-29s. Enjoy what oil you can get out for now. It won't be much longer.

The DEI is what it is. He can bleed you, but he doesn't have to. I think you're correct to worry about forting up Formosa. It will happen faster than you think. Or somewhere similar. He's into the body and he's got heavy equipment to dig with. He broke the dermal layer getting ashore on Sumatra and northern Malaysia and the torso is full of soft, fleshy organs.

Sumatra's usefulness will only last as long as the oil/refinery complex does.

With it, Sumatra is a nice unsinkable airbase in easy range of Singers and has organic supply production. Without that, I'm evacuating everything to Java, and thence the PI. Hell, once I get the turn back I'll probably start withdrawing everything from Minadano south up to Luzon.

You are on to something, though. I'm stil considering Manila as a rear area base because the Allies haven't quite moved up yet. That needs to end.

Now you have me really worried, I've three BB's repairing at Manila and the CAP is only a hundred planes or so...

He has P-51s and B-29s. Pbang is only a matter of him caring enough to take it down. He doesn't need the oil. He doesn't need to take the base. He just needs to burn it. The rest of Sumatra is unsinkable sure, but his 4E forces now make any airbase he wants to take out pretty easy. There's not enough VPs left on Sumatra to matter that much in terms of slogging. Batavia OTOH is pretty fat.

You need to think about yards. You've got Manila and HK before it's HI time. I don't know if he goes amphib on Formosa, or slogs into China through the south, or takes Luzon. But any way he goes he has the navy and amphibs to do them.