Utilizing weather.

[mussey]

OK, late again to the party...

In past games I never checked for weather (though I do play w/'Advanced' on) because I never knew how to use it. I would set my air missions like Naval Search and Ground Attack on set-it and forget it. But other recent threads concerning Transport missions/op losses has me re-evaluating this aspect of the game. My sole concern at this moment in my learning curve is how to reduce air operational loses so I need some clarification please:

- the Weather Map shows the forecast for a given boxed area, but if I mouse over a specific base it shows the forecast for that given base? for all 3 phases of the next day? or for the the first phase of the next day but the next two phases can change? Example: the area box including New Guinea is 'clear', but Port Moresby shows 'extreme overcast'

- so how do you suggest I use this forecast if my allies in Port Moresby are besieged by Jap LCU's and I so happen to have x52 B-26 Marauders stationed at Cooktown (where weather is also 'extreme overcast'). Is this a good time to ground attack them? Or do I wait for a better forecast? I assume the weather at the staging base matters too?

- for Patrol planes flying naval search in the Pacific I set them for 20-30% unless I see severe airframe fatigue then I reduce this or stand down. But does anyone use the Weather Forecast to stand down on a daily gameturn basis?

I ask these questions because I'm trying to figure out how much micromanaging a player must do vs. what the individual unit AI's can do...[8|]

[crsutton]

It is very unpredictable-as it should be. As an Allied player, I don't let the forecast affect my plans too much. I send in my bombers regardless, By late 43 you reach a point where you just want the raids to keep going in. Op losses in bad weather are not high enough to stop me from doing that. About the only weather aspect that you can predict and plan on are the monsoons in India and Burma and moonlight. Otherwise, I am surprised how little attention I pay to it. I might hold back a carrier operation but usually don't even look at the weather when planning.

[pontiouspilot]

To some extent I track weather around certain key centres. There are many such places which are often/usually experiencing bad weather. Caledonia is a prime example. If I want to park something and hope it doesn't get spotted I believe this helps....still a lot of guess work.

[LeeChard]

If I have squadrons in a combat zone and there is 'thunderstorms' in the zone I sometimes take the opportunity to
rest them with less chance of getting caught on the ground. No guarantees though[:(]

[geofflambert]

Remember "The Wrath of Khan" and the Motaran Nebula? Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander? Well in this game that's not the case in carrier battles. You luck out if a storm is over your TF when the enemy planes are looking for it and there's clear skies over his TF when your planes are looking for it. No way to predict that and they don't let you choose the chief of meteorology for your ships or TFs so you are either lucky or SOL.

[geofflambert]

Talking about meteorology, a friend of mine relates how when he was in an astronomy class they were out at night at an observatory and the professor was humming along and pointed his finger at an area of the sky and said something like "now, if you look over there..." and at exactly that moment a meteor streaked across that part of the sky. Then he said "and for my next trick..." and everybody of course cracked up.

[tiemanjw]

I'm a little slow here... when I mouse over a base (or a TF or whatever) and I see the weather, that is a forecast - for which I can use for planning purposes (to a small degree)? I thought it was the current weather.

[geofflambert]

I thought (and continue to think) it is the current weather in that hex at dusk, I guess. If that were not so it would be the same in all hexes from others in the same weather zone.

[geofflambert]

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

I'm a little slow here... when I mouse over a base (or a TF or whatever) and I see the weather, that is a forecast - for which I can use for planning purposes (to a small degree)? I thought it was the current weather.

And dude, if you think you're a little slow, you don't know gorns.

[mussey]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

It is very unpredictable-as it should be. As an Allied player, I don't let the forecast affect my plans too much. I send in my bombers regardless, By late 43 you reach a point where you just want the raids to keep going in. Op losses in bad weather are not high enough to stop me from doing that. About the only weather aspect that you can predict and plan on are the monsoons in India and Burma and moonlight. Otherwise, I am surprised how little attention I pay to it. I might hold back a carrier operation but usually don't even look at the weather when planning.

Until now that's exactly what I did. But now I'm unsure of myself...

[geofflambert]

Just listen to Billie Holliday or Lena Horne


Don't know why there's no sun up in the sky
Stormy weather
Since my man and I ain't together,
Keeps rainin' all of the time

Oh, yeah
Life is bare, gloom and mis'ry everywhere
Stormy weather
And I just can't get my poorself together,
I'm weary all the time
So weary all the time
When he went away the blues walked in and met me.
Oh, yeah
If he stays away old rockin' chair will get me.

All I do is pray the Lord above will let me walk in the sun once more.
I can't go on, can't go on, can't go on, ev'ry thing I had is gone
Stormy weather

Since my man and I ain't together,
Keeps rainin' all the time

[mussey]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

I thought (and continue to think) it is the current weather in that hex at dusk, I guess. If that were not so it would be the same in all hexes from others in the same weather zone.

I think you are correct, and that it is the weather for the night phase which starts the one day turn. Is this then the weather for the following two phases (AM and PM). Someone else mentioned that it can change for all phases.

[Barb]

Weather is subject to rolls - for each phase. So if you have an area of "Clear" and a hex with "Clear" - you can have whatever in the hex for each following phase as it is subject of rolls. However I think that area weather has a way to shift the probabilities to better weather.

So actually you can end up with Thunderstorms in Clear map area, but it is a little less probable then ending with some better weather. IIRC there is also some limitation about the "weather shift" - but I am not sure it is about the area weather or hex weather.

Having a good weather increases probability of strike, detection level, coordination, bombing results and limits the ops losses. Bad weather can lead to strike cancelled, not finding target, lower levels of detection, going in bits and drabs, limiting hits and increasing ops losses.

[mussey]

ORIGINAL: Barb

Weather is subject to rolls - for each phase. So if you have an area of "Clear" and a hex with "Clear" - you can have whatever in the hex for each following phase as it is subject of rolls. However I think that area weather has a way to shift the probabilities to better weather.

So actually you can end up with Thunderstorms in Clear map area, but it is a little less probable then ending with some better weather. IIRC there is also some limitation about the "weather shift" - but I am not sure it is about the area weather or hex weather.

Having a good weather increases probability of strike, detection level, coordination, bombing results and limits the ops losses. Bad weather can lead to strike cancelled, not finding target, lower levels of detection, going in bits and drabs, limiting hits and increasing ops losses.

My hunch is that you are correct. Does anyone know what those probabilities are? I see such wild swings, that it would be interesting to see what odds are for 'thunderstorm hex in a clear area box' for example.

[Macclan5]

Not sure exactly what the "probabilities are" exactly other than they are "data points" randomly chosen ?

Lobaron's response in this thread is the most definitive answer I have ever found. (as per previous page). The data points are highlighted to infer there must be i.e. 1 -100 choices ? 1 - 200 ??

Not sure what the population is.

tm.asp?m=3037535&mpage=1&key=weather%2C ... 2365533%3B


The weather forecast tells you something about probability, not about actual weather. We have 3 phases ingame per day, and weather can
possibly change between every single phase. The chance distribution with advanced weather "off" always remains the same, with "on" it
varies from thunderstorms to clear. But it still is a forecast, so you can sometimes run into a wall of clouds although the weather map stated "clear".

Weather is an extremely interesting part of the game, it can be used to your advantage or used against you. Obviously not with "off" as there are not enough
data points in "partly cloudy" from 41-46


"Off" refers to Advanced Weather Off in the thread vs Advanced Weather on which has more data points (!! ?? !!)

--

Again how you can use it successfully is largely unspoken.

I am convinced that the edge is mostly psychological as it would be very very hard to differentiate between "hiding in a storm" and detection level / spotting / random roll / sub patrol / LR Cap / and all the other factors.

Perhaps the only obvious advantage is "flee in a storm" and evade the enemy.

Otherwise it seems to be beyond my skill.

[Ol_Dog]

I think it is like playing cards - if they cards are running good and you get up to go to the bathroom, they will change when you come back. If the cards are running bad when you leave, they will be as bad or worse when you come back.

Ain't it the truth.

[geofflambert]

ORIGINAL: Ol_Dog

I think it is like playing cards - if they cards are running good and you get up to go to the bathroom, they will change when you come back. If the cards are running bad when you leave, they will be as bad or worse when you come back.

Ain't it the truth.

You should write a book about it. Throw in some stuff about stepping on cracks in the sidewalk.

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Just listen to Billie Holliday or Lena Horne


Don't know why there's no sun up in the sky
Stormy weather
Since my man and I ain't together,
Keeps rainin' all of the time

Oh, yeah
Life is bare, gloom and mis'ry everywhere
Stormy weather
And I just can't get my poorself together,
I'm weary all the time
So weary all the time
When he went away the blues walked in and met me.
Oh, yeah
If he stays away old rockin' chair will get me.

All I do is pray the Lord above will let me walk in the sun once more.
I can't go on, can't go on, can't go on, ev'ry thing I had is gone
Stormy weather

Since my man and I ain't together,
Keeps rainin' all the time

BJ Thomas. Raindrops keep falling on my head.

[Ol_Dog]

I went bye your field this weekend, but did not stop to look for you. Old age and treachery can defeat skill and science sometimes, and can overcome bad luck occasionally - it did at the casino.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Ol_Dog

I went bye your field this weekend, but did not stop to look for you. Old age and treachery can defeat skill and science sometimes, and can overcome bad luck occasionally - it did at the casino.

OOOOO! Tell us how we can get away with treachery at the casino! Magnets against the slots? Loaded dice? Counterfeit chips?