Russian Invasion of the eastern Ukraine imminent?

[BeirutDude]

OK not NATO/Warsaw Pact or FP:RS, but the more things change.

Over the past week Russian Armored Brigades (Divisions as it appears they have brought back division level units as well are reactivated the 1st GTA) have massed in the Crimea and in the Donbass (reports of 10 trains of military equipment moved into the Donbass last week). This morning interfax is reporting Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) have captured Spetsnaz like groups planning to attack the Lviv Railroad line at three locations. Not saying the Ukranians are angels but as far as Russian military action is concerned this is right out of the playbook...

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/362459.html

[CapnDarwin]

That's kind of scary.

[Rincovsk]

The never end old russian invasion stuff...just like the end of the world predictions. I have myself lost count on the ends of the world that I have gone through...[:D]...but thats good, It inspires more war games and war games scenarios to come! [:D]

Tons of stuff, reports and truths come from both sides of the conflict. Depends on what you want to believe.

Cheers

[CaptCarnage]

The article does not state these are Speznaz-like operatives - this is your addition.

Plus: Lviv region is in the WEST of Ukraine, not in the troubled East. Why would it be important to blow up that railroad?

And where is the source that says Armored Brigades are massed in Crimea?

Don't make up bull dung now.

[Rincovsk]

Russians are bad, immoral and the source of all evil...they have to be...otherwise our world does not make any sense! [:D]

[CapnDarwin]

Let's try to keep it clean folks. [:-]

[Stimpak]

More war... nothing new from humanity.

[mikeCK]

You guys act like this has never happened. Russia invaded and annexed Crimea from the Ukraine a year and 1/2 ago! Anyway, this article doesn't say anything about spetsnaz but everything else is on point. Putin has been very clear that he will not hesitate to invade neighboring countries if "their native Russian population is threatened". Code for "when I want to"

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/697 ... ean-border

[Zakalwe101]

Maskirovka - The 1944 Soviet Military Encyclopedia refers to "means of securing combat operations and the daily activities of forces; a complexity of measures, directed to mislead the enemy regarding the presence and disposition of forces..."[1] Later versions of the doctrine also include strategic, political, and diplomatic means including manipulation of "the facts", situation and perceptions to affect the media and public/world opinion, so as to achieve or facilitate tactical, strategic, national and international goals.

When some states feel it's national interest is threatened or can be furthered ; Lying is state policy.

Source
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukrai ... K820150527 - unfortunately only one accompanying photo of the listed equipment - - who now operates T72 TANKS,are they T72'S, what models, and how does your average journalist tell them apart ?.

I guess the question is do you trust a news agency with 160 years integrity to protect (shareholders would not be happy about a drop in share price if the company was caught in lie) or a government whose own President admitted to lying about the presence of "little green men" in the Crimea.

I was taught to ask "why the lie, what is this benefit of the lie, if it is not a lie what coroborates it. What are the verifiable facts." the difficulty we have now is that there are so many lies that each lie relies on another to support it in an endless circles, you only need look at youtube for the conspiracy theorists stories on UFO'S for examples of such entertaining drivel.

Railroads are strategic assets - Prussian invasion of France in 1870 was based upon upon their railroad time tables (or rather the other way round) , the invasion of France in 1914 was based the German perception they could beat France and redeploy to the east before czarist Russia could mobilise, so railroads are always targets. (The Germans proving a threat to world peace across two centuries, the Russians have someway to go before they beat that record, though they argueably have been trying real hard during 1945 to 1989+ our period of interest )
You don't move heavy equipment by road unless you have no choice or as many tank transporters as tanks. Destruction of infrastructure to a modern state has it's own merits beyond the slowing of reinforcements. If i were resting/refitting my armoured reserves it would be in the west not in the east , in range of "volunteer" Russian artilley batteries.

In FPC we blow bridges to slow an advance, we all know that it won't stop an advance, so start thinking deeper about what is a target. I seem to recollect "LVOV" figured in the German invasion of the SOVIET UNION as road / rail junction of importance (I could be wrong on this ?)

As for the them being spetznaz, I have my doubts,the article describes them as saboteurs,this is a Spetznaz task, however the incident stinks of incompetence, why attack the railroads now, surely you would blow the rail road up to coincide with an assault, rail roads are easily sabotaged, but unless they are operated by network rail (UK joke) relatively easy to repair (unless it's a bridge or a tunnel with a train in it) , why was there only one of them , where was his back up, if your task is to blow up railroads why the huge arsenal of antitank weapons, I'd expect real Russian covert operatives to be a darn sight more professional , more covert, better timed, I think what they have is some Eastern Ukrainian Terrorist cell ?

This is unfortunately is not game and could be the end of the world for many people.

[Rincovsk]

One Year After Russia Annexed Crimea, Locals Prefer Moscow To Kiev

Kenneth Rapoza , Forbes

2015

CONTRIBUTOR

The U.S and European Union may want to save Crimeans from themselves. But the Crimeans are happy right where they are.

One year after the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula in the Black Sea, poll after poll shows that the locals there — be they Ukrainians, ethnic Russians or Tatars are mostly all in agreement: life with Russia is better than life with Ukraine.

Little has changed over the last 12 months. Despite huge efforts on the part of Kiev, Brussels, Washington and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the bulk of humanity living on the Black Sea peninsula believe the referendum to secede from Ukraine was legit. At some point, the West will have to recognize Crimea’s right to self rule. Unless we are all to believe that the locals polled by Gallup and GfK were done so with FSB bogey men standing by with guns in their hands.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2 ... fce21b5951

[mikeCK]

Justify it if you would like. The fact is that the Russians, fearing that the pro-western government would jeopardize their interest in Crimea and in conjunction with a long standing desire to establish themselves as a word power once again, invaded a sovereign nation and ceded territory as its own. Not unheard of...this is what the U.S. Did in the Mexican -American war. But call it what it is. Can't act like a story implying Russia may be preparing for combat operations in Ukraine is false simply because you don't think Russia would do that. They have...recently.

I'm not sure how polls establish anything. If those Native Russians living in the Ukraine want to be part of Russia, they should have moved there. I'm sure there are people all over the world that would rather be happier governed by the U.S. That doesn't mean we can go around taking them over because of that.

Russia invaded and took a chunk of Ukrain for its own. So it's perfectly reasonable to think they may do it again.

[Rincovsk]

"Justify it if you would like. The fact is that the Russians, fearing that the pro-western government would jeopardize their interest in Crimea and in conjunction with a long standing desire to establish themselves as a word power once again"

It can be explained, whether you like it or not and independently if it is justifiable or not. Thats not the point. It is all about geopolitics. It is not only the Russians that have the desire to increase its influence in the region. All the main players involved have that objective as well. The western powers (US as well of course) also have its hands painted in blood when it comes to the disaster in Ukraine. My criticism is the tendency to the western media to blame only russia for everything that is happening in the region. Thats all.

"invaded a sovereign nation and ceded territory as its own. Not unheard of...this is what the U.S. Did in the Mexican -American war. But call it what it is."

Crimea was in the past a russian territory and was given to Ukraine during Krushevs regime. The indisputable majority of its population is russian, so the polls shows clearly the desire of its population to return back to Russia. Again, return back. The way this happened is very debatable, I must agree, but this is not in theory a open war between Russia and Ukraine such as the american-mexican war. Things are indeed more obscure, from both sides, western and russian involvement there, since the coup. The fact is that the people desire to be again part of russia is unquestionable. You like it or not. The same for other similar polls such as the Falkland islands one...or do you suggest the islanders there move to Britain? There is nothing Argentina can do, people living there right now want to be part of Great Britain, thats it.

"Can't act like a story implying Russia may be preparing for combat operations in Ukraine is false simply because you don't think Russia would do that. They have...recently."

You can have the vision and the opinion you like and believe Russia is amassing troops to invade Ukraine and maybe finally reach the atlantic. This wont happen. It didnt happen when we supposed the russians had the best chance back in the cold war, so it wont happen now nor in the near future. Russians would have to face an entire alliance alone (NATO) and be facing a country (US) that has a military budget that is higher than the rest of the planet combined. They are not stupid. The enemy is not as "stupid" as we used to see in the movies. I do agree that covert operations are happening, certainly, but again, from both main players struggling for influence in the region, each one with its own interests and objectives, and again, western powers lead by US have as well the hands painted in blood...as much as Russia.

"I'm not sure how polls establish anything. If those Native Russians living in the Ukraine want to be part of Russia, they should have moved there. I'm sure there are people all over the world that would rather be happier governed by the U.S. That doesn't mean we can go around taking them over because of that."

This statement does not make any sense for me...sorry. I wont comment.

"Russia invaded and took a chunk of Ukrain for its own. So it's perfectly reasonable to think they may do it again.[/quote]"

Russian didnt, and wont do it.

Cheers,

[mikeCK]

My comment about the polls was in response your comment that seems to imply that polls showing Crimean Russians preferred to be under Russian control matters. It doesn't.

Your making a lot of good arguments but they are straw-man arguments. Where did I ever say the Russians would push to the Atlantic? Putin has made clear that he would invade any nation I order to protect native Russians there. That would be Ukraine and the Baltic states. I'm not arguing that there aren't other nations with significant interests in the region. In not arguing that Crimea has always been apart of Ukraine. And I'm not arguing that Russia is the only one who does it. You seem to be justifying the invasion by making a bunch of arguments that do not. All of the factors above do not justify invading a sovereign nation and forcibly taking its territory.

None of the things you mention have anything to do with the initial issue. That issue is whether an article discussing Russia troops massing at the border is not believable simply because there is nothing to indicate Russia would invade the Ukraine.

My comment was that- yes- there is an indication thh might invade: the fact that they invaded and took territory before for the sole purpose of occupying the territory (as opposed to defending themselves). I fail to see how any of the issues you mentioned has anything to do with it. The Russians invaded to take territory; therefor, it's not unreasonable to think they would do it again. Likely?no...but not unreasonable.

[Rincovsk]

Well..thats precisely my point. I was trying to expand my arguments to show that are several parties involved and interfering in the region. Either US involved supporting the coup in the first place and Russia supporting the separatist in estern Ukraine and supporting the Crimeans to rejoin Russia, as they wanted to. So getting back to the article Russia might be amassing troops in the region as much as NATO is also doing the same. So why the always one sided blaming? Again, expanding a little bit to the western media in general. That's my point and my opinion.

So my commemt is no, there is no indication of invasion not now nor in the past. As much as there is no indication of a NATO invasion in Ukraine or into Russian territory.

Polls are important and matters a lot. It is the principle of self rule. So regarding specifically Crimea US and EU will have to eventually accept that the peninsula will never be again ukranian. The several polls at the end legitimate the change.

Regarding Putin statement, I must confess that I will investigate that further. But you know politians always say stupid things and sometimes exagerate in some statements. Every world leader will say that it will protect its nationals wherever they are. At the other hand I do know that he said tons of times that is ridiculous the fear of a Russian invasion. There is no plan and any logic on that. This would bring more harm than good.. The military is under reform with a focus on defense and since 2000 his efforts is to put Russia again in the international arena, not to bring back a URSS type of regime. So taking words by words we are also even here, but you preferred to focus on the invasion one.

If you don't see any conection here, it is your reasoning and point of view. Fine. We just disagree. I respect that.

Cheers

[mikeCK]

Here are a few good articles. One is a speech transcript and the other an overview of the new "murky" Russian foreign policy relating to protecting Russians outside of Russia's border

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... -language/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/tr ... story.html

This one is more political so take it as you will:

http://www.rferl.mobi/a/russia-ethnic-r ... 28281.html

"In recent weeks, the Russian government has articulated what might be called the Putin Doctrine, a blanket assertion that Moscow has the right and the obligation to protect Russians anywhere in the world."

[Rincovsk]

Thanks. I will take a look as soon as I have a chance. I usually try to read lots of different sources for any particular subject.

Cheers!

[BeirutDude]

Plus: Lviv region is in the WEST of Ukraine, not in the troubled East. Why would it be important to blow up that railroad?

Because if you were planing a deeper assault than just the east, like maybe to the Dneipr River (or further) you would want to cut reinforcement and resupply. Logistics, logistics, logistics!

[BeirutDude]

Spetznaz, or Little Green Men call them what you will but I prefer to call them what they are. Honestly Russian tactics and Maskirovka haven't changed in 70 years just the weapons.

[BeirutDude]

To me this nothing short of a positioning to force NATO out of the Baltic states (we're IMHO we shouldn't have been) and restore the old Western boundaries of the Soviet Union. Look the reason for Russian Armed Forces is to prevent the repeat of the numerous invasions of Western Russia. They see the offensive as a defensive move.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37049313

[kevinkins]

Ukrainian tanks (T64s?) moving east in response to recent Russian exercises - Aug 17.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFfY7udt-KI