The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[BBfanboy]

The complexity of your invasion scheme is starting to make RL D-Day look like an easy party to organize! Bravo on the organization skills and selection of targets! [&o]

We all know lots could still go wrong, but you also have a reputation for back-up plans and steadiness under fire. I'm pretty sure things will go well overall.
Keep the movie rolling!

[T Rav]

CR,

There is a reason why your thread has such a high hit count. You write well, and your planning and execution is worth watching.

Thanks,
T Rav

[Andav]

We need a Wet Blanket smiley for Alfred to post to threads where he thinks the Allied player is getting uppity. It should look like the Japanese battle flag with a clown fish in the red dot and come with the caption, "But Nemo would kick your butt!".

Keep having fun with the game CR.

Wa

[Canoerebel]

11/11/14

Big Tent: The herd plods four hexes west today without incident: no enemy subs, ships, aircraft. Even the lone LST unloads its supply at Satawal and then heads west unmolexted. I also "found" a TF of five YMS lingering around Truk. It was set to follow my main TF, had done so for many turns, but suddenly decided not to. Now it's near Satawal and making for New Guinea, but it's in no-man's-land kinda nekkid.

More SigInt and recon today suggesting that John is narrowing his focus to the invasion region. But how could he not at this point? The herd is 12 hexes from the first target - and only 13-15 from two of the major targets. SigInt says a CDU coastal gun unit is aboard a maru bound for Manikwari on the New Guinea coast. Death Star should be within six hexes of that base in two days, so perhaps the CD unit won't make it. SigInt also repeats yesterday's report of 2nd Guards Div. aboard ships bound for Ternate.

I am sure John is reinforcing key bases by air, though that's not likely to be effective. The five major targets each get an Allied division. Only two of these are targeted in the opening days. Timing for the other three will depend on developments. If they appear lightly held, I'll emphasize speed. If they appear garrisoned, I'll focus more on attending to the first two major targets and immediate environs, which includes about eight minor targets.

So, in about three days, things get very active for Big Tent. The question remains whether John commits combat ships and/or carriers. No sign of them. PBYs from "Eldorado" pick up multiple TK TFs near Babo on the western New Guinea coast. That base should no longer be open to enemy tankers in a few more days. And if things go really well, that base won't belong to the enemy in two weeks.

One of the fun things about playing John is his aggressive, offensive-minded game. It can make things very tense and exciting early on, as KB is likely to show up anywhere. But John focuses so heavily on offense that he leaves gaping holes in his defense. That means I have the fun of finding weak areas and trying to figure out ways to attack. A year ago it was Sumatra; six months ago it was Hokkaido (thought that changed); three months ago it was the Marshalls; and now it's the Big Tent area.

That's not a criticism, by the way. We have different styles, different strengths, different weakenesses. The fun and the challenge comes in trying to identify them and exploit them.

I've played the very attentive defensive-minded players before. The going forward is much tougher because there usually aren't gaping holes. Next game I play I might have that kind of opponent. But for now I'm playing John, and it sure is fun.

Lion Tamer: The Allies will take a dot hex north of Efate tomorrow. Judys sortied again and sank an xAP and an xAK. I'll taper off now that I'm getting close to Ndeni and its nest of Judys. I'll wait for Big Tent to (hopefully) draw John's full attention to that area, thus opening up opportunties in SoPac and other regions that are of much less importance.

[Canoerebel]

John has been unsually quiet in his AAR and atypically non-communicative in his emails. He frequently promises a turn but doesn't deliver. Not only doesn't he deliver, but he doesn't send word. Then, after a day or more, he sends a turn without explanation.

I know he's struggling with his AE commitments now. And I think it reflects a morale problem on his part. He gave up his game against Herbie. He's apparently suspended his game against Michael. And he's showing much less enthusiasm in our game.

I haven't broached this with him for two reasons: (1) he probably just needs time to regain his equilibirum and enthusiasm without me breathing down his neck, and (2) one of the great satisfactions in this game - after getting pummeled countless times during the course of a year by "Banzai!" and the like, which came across as taunting whether intended or not, is taking the wind out of his sails, if that's what's happened here. The tables have finally turned and the opportunties for "Banzai" are infrequent. The Allies are on the march, have pretty well pierced the outer enemy defenses, and are approaching the vitals after just being evicted from them four months ago. There is alot of satisfaction in that, whether we're flipping turns or proceeding slowly.

[Flicker]

Alfred - I enjoy reading your impressions of CR's game; after all, it was CR, Nemo, and you writing about the game that led to my buying the game.

What would your proposed course of action after Sabang look like? Personally I may have used the land LCUs to take China (if possible given CRs defense). Ceylon or parts of India might have been targets. Nemo would've invaded the US East Coast

[JohnDillworth]

Leaving aside Johns current disengagement I expect John is a different player than he was before the Battle of Wake. Perhaps a better player. I'm sure his air search habits have changed and I don't think he will ever launch large operations without having a pretty good idea where the Allied Carriers are. Now if John had both the full KB and mini KB his reaction would have been predictable. Leaving aside this operation is only possible because of the IJN's diminished capacity I expect John's tactics, and maybe even his strategic thinking, has to change. Charging in with whatever he has here might be a recipe for disaster. It's odd to see him not hitting you with the kitchen sink but his seeming pragmatism must have you looking over you shoulder. I am curious to see how he responds to this on a strategic level. This is a great move on your part but not without problems. Until you get a big port any damaged ships are going to have serious problems getting to a safe place. Fun to watch this.

[jwolf]

John has been playing almost at a frenzy (or so it seems to this bystander) so much so that I would worry about burnout. I hope he can regain some balance and continue. It must be satisfying for you to see this big op so near to bearing fruit at last. I'm anxious to see the first major landings and the Japanese reactions.

[Canoerebel]

My memory of the previous discussion (months ago) was that the glaring weakpoint for the Allies after Sabang was LCU - espcially combat units, especially American Army divisions. I think the idea was to focus on the destruction of additional major LCU. That would have been possible in a number of ways, particularly by attacking Ramree Island, by isolating and then reducing the Allied army in Assam, and possibly a place like Ceylon. The objective was to further weakend the Allied army, making future offensive operations difficult.

That line of thinking led me to especially give attention to Ramree and Assam after the surrender at Sabang. I think the proposed strategy would have been effective.

Thus far, I really don't think the Allies have suffered from the loss of LCU at Sabang, and I don't expect to going forward. I've had enough to prosecute the sequential offensive in the Pacific, and think I will going forward.

By the way, I think Alfred is incredibly smart and would be a fearsome player (assuming he doesn't already play under an alter ego, which I don't think he does - I take him at face value). On one occasion three or four years ago, I tried to encourage a match between Alfred and Nemo. Then, when I had an opening for a game, I tried to entice a player of the caliber of Alfred or Nemo (without naming names) just to see what would happen. I knew there was a reasonable likelihood that I'd suffer an embarrassing auto-victory defeat, but what a ride it would have been!

Alfred is a keeper of records and minutae abuot the game, a repository of information, a master of understanding the rules and mechanics, and an invaluable asset to the community. I think his one weakness is that he's so smart that it pains him to see "regular folks" doing things and thinking they've done something. I doubt he realizes he comes across that way. Sometimes folks get irritated with him and snap, which might dampen his enthusiasm for participating, so just like I'd like him to overlook my weaknesses sometimes, I ought to grant him the same courtesy. He's too important to AE for me to let my occasional irritation show.

[Kofiman]

Reading Alfred's post, I think I get two main points here.

Operation Big Tent is a result of winning the recent carrier battle, which is letting you do this, not anything to do with Sabang.

Two, Sabang is not a victory. You lost troops, some ships, maybe some time, and there isn't much to show for it.

I'm not sure what Alfred would have done on your side, but I'm sure there were some opportunities. On the oppositie side, he's clearer. Maintain ground troops for counterattack, keep the fleet in the important locations, try to force carrier battle on positive terms. Alfred probably would have been okay with blockade and slow conquest, like most people do in Luzon at the start of the game, and then with so many unrestricted allied LCUs committed, look elsewhere for putting the timeline back, important bases to attack, etcetera.

Still, it's not a problem to play your opponent. Personally, I'm wondering if you should have seen Hokkaido through. Parlaying the Sabang commitment into heavy strat-bombing damage to the HI would absolutely had been a victory, or if Hokkaido was a bridge too far, maybe do a blanket through to Sakhalin island? John can get sloppy with his naval search sometimes. Invading Hokkaido to open something to let you evac your other troops, then keep moving targets driving John in circles.. Java next? Each one covering for the evac somewhere else.. until either John fumbles his carriers or breaks down and lets you hold something on the cheap.

[Canoerebel]

Hokkaido or Sikhalin wouldn't have worked only because we have a house rule prohibiting strat bombing until 1944. The biggest weakness, though was that I didn't control the LOC and couldn't unless and until I won a decisive carrier victory. IMO, diverting to the secondary target was the right choice there. I hated to do it, because Hokkaido was wide open, but it was a dangerous siren song.

Everything that has happened in 1943 was predicated on and built upon what was going on at Sabang. So Sabang played a direct role in Big Tent becoming possible.

[Mike McCreery]

I concur with your comments on Alfred.

It would be nice for him to crush a real player some day to demonstrate his brilliance. I am not holding my breath though.

[Flicker]

CR - BTW what is the situation in China? I see from your map that you seem to have a good line established. Has John pushed hard there?

[Canoerebel]

The situation in China has been static since the fall of Changsha, way back in the summer of '42. Now both sides have been dug in for more than a year, so forts are strong. My line has weaknesses and supply is major issue, so I'm laying low. But there are two other longterm reasons for laying low:

1. In preparation for the invasion of Hokkaido, I was planning to use Sian as a staging point for fighters and bombers moving from India to Hokkaido. (Many players are aware that is possible, but other very experienced players aren't, because they've never thought about it before.) Sian is a relatively easy base for Japan to conquer, so I didn't want to do anything to get John riled up in China.

2. The Allies have medium term and long term plans in China. At the moment, drawing John's attention there would be counterproductive. So I'm attending to behind-the-scenese housework until the day when things change.

Part of the euqation is that I've shifted nearly everything to the Pacific now. Everything that arrives at Aden goes to the East Coast. The Allies are all-in for the Pacific campaign. I don't think a ground campaign in Burma or anywhere else in that region will ever take place. Rather than encroaching on the DEI through Sumatra, Java, Malaya, etc., I'm heading straight across the Pacific. And, if Big Tent goes well (always the qualifying "if'), then I'll be more than halfway there.

[Canoerebel]

11/12/43

Big Tent: The herd moves four hexes further west today, unmolested by the enemy. It's only eight hexes from the first target, nine from one of the major targets, and ten from another major target. The first landings should take place the day after tomorrow.

SigInt, nav search and recon continue to suggest that John was caught totally off guard. Backing up a few days, he was working to reinforce Wolei by air. Today's Sig Int shows two IJA divisions inbound to Balikpapan (along with another report of 2nd Guards to Ternate). A merchant TF of some sort is hugging the New Guinea coast and is possibly carrying that "CDU" CD unit reportedly heading to Manikwari (though Death Star is much closer to that target than the Japanese ships are). A bunch of tankers are at Babo (possibly John had a supply of oil there he's trying to extract before the window closes).

Regular readers will have followed along as John has spent the summer and autumn of '43 reacting to emergencies, sending divisions here, there, and yonder as each new crisis has arisen. This is a type of deployment that is highly inefficient (his fuel costs must be high) and is indicative of that lack of prep. All of this, in turn, is a more or less direct result of Sabang.

An Allied sub hit a troop-carrying xAK near Babeldoab (this might be a TF heading for Balikpapan given the bearing indicated). Another sub sank a troop-carrying xAP near Toyohara.

If John plans to strike before the Allies get a good lodgement, tomorrow or the day after should be his last good opportunity.

Meanwhile, in northern Oz, Normantown port just went to level two and Portland Roads will in a day or two. Both bases are packed with troops - especially Normantown.

[JohnDillworth]

Nice to see your subs hitting soft tar gets. 1944 is just around the corner and with working torpedoes and much improved search areas it's time to pinch the economy. Spending PP on hyper-agressive sub commanders is one of the best investments you can make.

[anarchyintheuk]

Re: Sabang. Risking and losing approx. 7 divisions and supporting forces (most of which can be rebuilt) reduced the period of IJ initiative by at least 6 months. Huge win.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Leaving aside Johns current disengagement I expect John is a different player than he was before the Battle of Wake. Perhaps a better player. I'm sure his air search habits have changed and I don't think he will ever launch large operations without having a pretty good idea where the Allied Carriers are. Now if John had both the full KB and mini KB his reaction would have been predictable. Leaving aside this operation is only possible because of the IJN's diminished capacity I expect John's tactics, and maybe even his strategic thinking, has to change. Charging in with whatever he has here might be a recipe for disaster. It's odd to see him not hitting you with the kitchen sink but his seeming pragmatism must have you looking over you shoulder. I am curious to see how he responds to this on a strategic level. This is a great move on your part but not without problems. Until you get a big port any damaged ships are going to have serious problems getting to a safe place. Fun to watch this.

I don't know if John has thought of it, but CR has a "Magic Shield" protecting his DS from KB and LBA. That shield is the AI which will target naval strikes almost equally at CVs, BBs and ... APs. That huge amphib fleet will divide naval strikes while DS's fighters decimate them. I think John stands a better chance if he can race in at full speed with ALL his big combat ships and have his aircraft do naval strikes happen the same turn.
That is the only way I see the IJ "kitchen sink" being successful - all or nothing.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Nice to see your subs hitting soft tar gets. 1944 is just around the corner and with working torpedoes and much improved search areas it's time to pinch the economy. Spending PP on hyper-agressive sub commanders is one of the best investments you can make.

I have a problem with hyper-aggressive sub commanders (75+) - they keep wanting to use their deck gun and get their boat shot up in the process. Heck, I had one sub make 3 deck gun attacks AFTER it had already expended all the deck gun ammo except mg's. The guy just would not fire his torpedoes.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

Re: Sabang. Risking and losing approx. 7 divisions and supporting forces (most of which can be rebuilt) reduced the period of IJ initiative by at least 6 months. Huge win.

I think Alfred's point was that John III turned it into a win by not appropriately exploiting the Allied weakness in LCUs during the period the destroyed units were rebuilding.
I'm not sure I completely understand Alfred's expectations for the IJA after Sabang - they could go after China and Burma/Assam or even press further in SOPAC, but CR has shown that his current moves make all those areas irrelevant.