The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

11/10/43

Report from Kansas State Archaeologial Expedition, September 12, 1889: In a rock outcropping about three miles south of the Republican River, Professor August Simerle and three students found the skeletal remains of a caucasian male of age 35 to 40. Artifacts found near the bones included a Navy revolver, six bullets, a wooden canteen, belt buckle, shirt buttons, fragments of cloth and leather, and four coins. Etched into the ceiling of the rock outcropping, which formed a sort of cave, were the words: "Clint Baker, Sept. 1868." These are believed to be the remains of Clinton A. Baker, U.S. Cavalry trooper and later civilian scout and wagon train leader. It is believed that he led the so-called McGregor Wagon Train west from Independence in the spring of 1868.

Sumatra Campaign: Today is the one year anniversary of D-Day Sabang, Sumatra, November 10, 1942. When all is said and done, I'm pretty sure that remarkable battle, which ended in an ugly defeat eight months later, was the decisive battle and turning point of the war. Remember Sumatra!

Big Tent: The herd lumbers west five hexes in a tight group that isn't molested by enemy forces. Death Star CAP downs a host of search Jakes. A lone LST arrives at Satawal and unloads supply. The APDs and AP invovled in the landing there rejoin the herd in good order. Additional PBYs arrive from the Marshalls.

Nav Search is not picking up KB or enemy combat ships. They are almost certainly in the area. John is going to feel some pressure to intervene, I think, but he may wait until he sees an opportunity or until he is so flummoxed that he feels he has no choice. But he's lost the advantage of LBA. Truk is now 12 hexes to the rear and the herd is ordered to move six more hexes west tomorrow. The closest threatening enemy airfield now is Babeldaob, which may be as close as nine hexes tomorrow. It won't be any closer. Then, after that, the only decent airfield John has is at Ternate.

SigInt today that 2nd Guards Div. is on a maru bound for Ternate. This is the first item of SigInt pertaining to a base in the general target area. Nav Search from Satawal and Nabire do not show any concentrations of enemy shipping in the area - just a routine TK at Babo, the small oil producing base at the western end of New Guinea. If my information is accurate and properly interpreted, John is just now coming to awareness of what's going on. His emails suggest that is the case. He can move in reinforcements by air, but Death Star could be parked right in the breadbasket in just three days (sooner if I get a sighting of KB at some distant point so that I can detach Death Star and send it out ahead of the herd).

Wolei is weakly defended and could be easily taken. It's tempting to take it for it's size two arifield, but landing troops and enough supply to keep the base running would take at least two days and maybe more. All the while, John would be reinforcing bases that should be basically undefended. Since I don't plan to use Wolei during egress, I won't yield to temptation. Better to move expeditiously to the key targets.

Third Ring: Lots of fuel inbound to support offensive moves following Big Tent, and all troops are now in place with PP accumulating steadly. By the time Third Ring is ready to go, I should have enough PP to buy out at least two restricted Australian divisions (in addition to a great host of unrestricted American and Anzac troops already in place and unrestricted.

Lion Tamer: Judys from Ndeni sink an xAP at Efate today, but enough of a base force detachment comes ashore to give the base some aviation support. Most of the BF was already here, but all the aviation support was over at Wallis Island. Finally I can move fighters to Efate to handle potential operations against Luganville, Vanua Lava and later Ndeni. I'd expected John to detach some combat ships or carriers down here against what he ordinarily perceives as easy pickings, but the threat posed by the herd up in CenPac will probably draw his full attention now.

[Cap Mandrake]

Don't forget some shiny trinkets for the local headhunters. And a lawyer. You will need some kind of lease agreement, I imagine.

By ra way, the AI will override the home base for severely damaged ships when the base port is very small.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Sumatra Campaign: Today is the one year anniversary of D-Day Sabang, Sumatra, November 10, 1942. When all is said and done, I'm pretty sure that remarkable battle, which ended in an ugly defeat eight months later, was the decisive battle and turning point of the war. Remember Sumatra!

So you are saying it was decisive in YOUR favor because it was a diversion
and led to lack of preparedness in the South Pacific?

[Canoerebel]

Exactly. I think crsutton put it best a month ago when he said it was "the sacrifice of a queen to achieve checkmate."

P.S. He wasn't saying the game was over - it wasn't and isn't - but just making the point that sometimes the most gruesome-looking defeat can play a key role in victory.

It was obvious to all of us (and John later told me this via email) that he elected to focus on Sabang to the exclusion of most everything else, thinking it was vital to make sure he wrapped it up. While he was focused there, the Allies spent more than four months shifting everything to the Pacific. The move caught John by surprise, prompting him to overreact in alarm, overcommitting in the hot-spot of the moment while of necessity neglecting other improtant locales. And thus the Allies have moved around pretty effectively, whittling away big chunks of the empire. It hasn't always been easy, but it's been possible because of Sumatra.

[JohnDillworth]

IS here a plan afoot to run supplies and troops via C-47 from Australia? Or is that even necessary? Can most aircraft types make the jump? Thats part of the beauty of this exercise, you can keep running planes in

[Cap Mandrake]

I say, that is an astonishingly good idea you have there...using the strat map to find green dot bases in Injun country.

[Canoerebel]

Most aircraft can make the jump from Oz to many of the targeted bases. I should end up with multiple big arifields 18 hexes or less from Portland Roads.

In two days, Kanga force will paradrop on the base west of Port Moresby (Terapo), but only if it's vacant. It will be reconned tomorrow. If it's occupied, then I'll look for another possibility. But that would make it possible for even Spitfires to make the jump.

I shouldn't need to bring supply in as the "herd" has plenty of its own to last months. That's one reason Death Star will remain in the theater for so long - to allow base building and supply unloading.

If this plan is successful it not only creastes a strong next of interlocking bases at the edge of the DEI but it also merges to theaters - CenPac and Oz while bypassing a large number of strongly held enemy bases. So Allied forces will end up spending the end of '43 and '44 sniping in the DEI and preparing to move forward instead of getting embroiled in tough fighting at Ponape or Lunga or Rabaul.

And I think John's focus will then naturally turn to the Celebes, Borneo and Mindanao, meaning Ponape, Lunga, Rabaul and other important bases are considerably less important. So at some point - probably in early '44 - the Allies can pick and choose which should be taken for protect the LOC and provide some decent port facilities.

All of this is dawning on John now - and even if he hasn't fully recognized it quite yet he'll intuitively know that it's a dangerous situation. That's why I think he might be desperate enough to commit KB.

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

By ra way, the AI will override the home base for severely damaged ships when the base port is very small.

True, but it is likely (??) that Dan will capture some more useful ports pretty quickly and then they can be used as home port designations. This whole thing is a very bold -- maybe even brazen -- operation that could unhinge the entire Japanese defense.

[Canoerebel]

I didn't know the the AI would override base designation. Well, that's something new to fret about a bit.

One of the first targets can grow into a decent-sized port. Two contruction regiments come ashore then. Two more are strat loaded and will begin to land as soon as the base falls. With four regiments ashore, I think base building should proceed pretty fast.

jwolf, my internal debate early on was whether this was far enough (to take advantage of KB's defeat) or whether it was too far. At first I worried it might not be bold enough. But once the op got underway, I worried that it was too bold. I think arguments can be made either way.

Some of the early targets under consdieration were Shokaku, Marcus, Leyte and Mindanao. Those were rejected on the premise that they were too bold - too close to multiple large enemy bases. My main concern about Mindanao was that it had the fortified Marianas to the rear, making the LOC a real problem.

On the flip side, obviously the Solomons, New Caledonia and Port Moresby/Milne Bay were too conservative. They didn't unhinge anything and would allow John to retire in order and build his next line of defenses.

So that pretty much leaves a certain area that seemed the best choice under the circumstances. It isn't perfect - it isn't a fatal blow to John - but it offers the most at the least risk at what is still a relatively early date.

Now that the herd is past Truk/Marianas, the period of greatest exposure to attack is ended. But John will know everything about the herd's location now and has a pretty good grasp on the targets. Any day he can choose to attack. So the focus is on getting the amphibious assaults underway ASAP while attending to defense. If he doesn't molest the herd greatly within the next seven days, the key opening will be secure and the entire front will have shifted west about 2,000 miles.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I didn't know the the AI would override base designation. Well, that's something new to fret about a bit.

One of the first targets can grow into a decent-sized port. Two contruction regiments come ashore then. Two more are strat loaded and will begin to land as soon as the base falls. With four regiments ashore, I think base building should proceed pretty fast.

jwolf, my internal debate early on was whether this was far enough (to take advantage of KB's defeat) or whether it was too far. At first I worried it might not be bold enough. But once the op got underway, I worried that it was too bold. I think arguments can be made either way.

Some of the early targets under consdieration were Shokaku, Marcus, Leyte and Mindanao. Those were rejected on the premise that they were too bold - too close to multiple large enemy bases. My main concern about Mindanao was that it had the fortified Marianas to the rear, making the LOC a real problem.

On the flip side, obviously the Solomons, New Caledonia and Port Moresby/Milne Bay were too conservative. They didn't unhinge anything and would allow John to retire in order and build his next line of defenses.

So that pretty much leaves a certain area that seemed the best choice under the circumstances. It isn't perfect - it isn't a fatal blow to John - but it offers the most at the least risk at what is still a relatively early date.

Now that the herd is past Truk/Marianas, the period of greatest exposure to attack is ended. But John will know everything about the herd's location now and has a pretty good grasp on the targets. Any day he can choose to attack. So the focus is on getting the amphibious assaults underway ASAP while attending to defense. If he doesn't molest the herd greatly within the next seven days, the key opening will be secure and the entire front will have shifted west about 2,000 miles.

I was going to say something about that... I think they will sail for the nearest actual port. Even though that dot base is yours, it has no port.

[JeffroK]

I hope that more than the dot hex are planned landing sites, CR has mentioned numerous landings planned.

Mention of support from OZ should include Darwin, well behind the lines, maybe expansion into Nhulunbuy, Wessel Islands etc could help cut the range into the landing areas

My fear is that any retreat from the Cenderawash Bay area is block/interdicted by LBA while KB attacks. There are a lot of airbases around capable of being built up (Has JIII been busy or lax???)

This could be the decisive battle, JIII cant afford to have CR move a horde around the map as he chooses, unless smashed it allows CR to do the same wherever he wants.

[JohnDillworth]

at this point the US Army pools and planes are good and get better. The U.S. can build bases out of almost anything. If Dan brings in AA units any new bases are going to be tough to crack. The Japanese don't have much in range and lack the resources to compete with the Allies on base building. This part of the world is not in the middle of large, interlocking, interior, Japanese airbases. As for the KB? It better hit soon or else it will have to deal with Allied LBA in large numbers plus a superior carrier force. I figure the Deathstar has to leave eventually, thats the time to strike.

[JeffroK]

On my stock map, I see 5-6 bases where AF could have been built to 8+ level.

Has CR cracked the crust and is behind JIII's MLD??

Waiting for the next episode, same bat time, same bat place!

[Anachro]

In my Japan AAR game, this AAR made me look at the dot hex. I made a note of it for the future. It's so hard to see unless its pointed out to you! We are all becoming quite paranoid, indeed.

[Canoerebel]

Your points are good ones.

1. Death Star should be in theater for months, similar to Operation Thin Man (the op to bring supply to the Marshalls). If things don't go awry, the Allies will end up with at least ten large bases during that interval and perhaps many more. If things go well there is the potential to strike much deeper and to also morph into Operation Third Ring.

2. The lack of major enemy bases in the region was the decisive factor in selecting it. Any other deep strike would have resulted in bases subject to immediate and constant harassment and the threat of all-out attack. I don't think John attended to this region at all. I think John can only attack at a disadvantage and at a distance, meaning for the most part Allied assets and base building will be unopposed - at least in heart of the target area, which will be built into the 10 major interlocking bases.

3. John will have to strike, but he might also be reluctant to. He'll know he missed his chance to combine with his big LBA. And if he loses a carrier battle, he suddenly has almost no ability to ward off Death Star and deep Allied penetrations.

I'm wondering if John's plan wasn't this: to allow the Allies to invade a hard target like the Marianas, bleeding themselves. Then as Death Star retired, KB would pounce. Hence the Kongos strike on Tarawa, possible the first step in suppressing Allied airfields. That's about the only reason I can come up with that he deployed Kongos way off there when Death Star was moving towards the Marianas.

[JohnDillworth]

On my stock map, I see 5-6 bases where AF could have been built to 8+ level.

Has CR cracked the crust and is behind JIII's MLD??

Waiting for the next episode, same bat time, same bat place!

Indeed, good position for aircraft and undermining Johns forward positions. The lack of a large port limits CR's ability to sue this as a major staging area for future ops but I suspect some units are prepping for operations to rectify that. That's what I love about reading AAR's after so many years we are still getting "gee, nobody has ever tried that before" moments. Speaks well of the game

[Cap Mandrake]

The Mindanao, Luzon, Formosa, Ryukyu's axis is deadly for Japan if the Allied player is very aggressive. There are buildable bases all over the place that can't all be covered. I don't even think you need Manila. You break a few ships...eh...you just send them back a little, pump out some of the flooding and leave them where they are......like MacArthur said when a Navy guy protested about the risk to shipping..."Isn't that why we have so many damn ships?"

You seize the unguarded bases with paratroops that don't have to be prepped then you move in garrison troops. In that way you can leap forward very, very aggressively without having to wait for amphibious troops to prep to 50. Another good trick is small landing craft attacks on empty bases. You deliberately for a small TF with 3-4 LCI's, load up 100-200 troops as a remnant and set off. they suffer 50% disruption but the bulk of the unit is undisturbed.

[Canoerebel]

That's the general plan for the long term, but not for the short or medium term. In order to really take full advantage of what's about to happen, the Allies first priority is to make darned sure that the core of critical bases are taken and built so large that they are essentially immune from counterattack. Maybe not individually, but as a whole. That's going to take two months. During that interval, the Allies brought enough troops that are prepped to expand the perimeter in an aggressive yet prepped way quite a distance. Then, when that is accomplished, Death Star will probably move to Oz pick up the Third Ring troops for their part in the plan. If this goes as planned, the Allied bases will stretch a great distance north and south, east and west. By February '44, I should have big, well-supplied bases in or on the edge of the DEI. From that point, the Allies can move in force against the Philippines (or other likely targets). These moves will be from a strong, secure base rather than shoe-string in nature.

As I said previously, I think this will be the last op targeting masses of undefended bases. After this, I'll be attacking well-defended targets. But I'll be in a position to do so.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Exactly. I think crsutton put it best a month ago when he said it was "the sacrifice of a queen to achieve checkmate."

P.S. He wasn't saying the game was over - it wasn't and isn't - but just making the point that sometimes the most gruesome-looking defeat can play a key role in victory.

It was obvious to all of us (and John later told me this via email) that he elected to focus on Sabang to the exclusion of most everything else, thinking it was vital to make sure he wrapped it up. While he was focused there, the Allies spent more than four months shifting everything to the Pacific. The move caught John by surprise, prompting him to overreact in alarm, overcommitting in the hot-spot of the moment while of necessity neglecting other improtant locales. And thus the Allies have moved around pretty effectively, whittling away big chunks of the empire. It hasn't always been easy, but it's been possible because of Sumatra.

This is only turning out good for you because your opponent (and presumably those who provide advice on his AAR) had no idea how to exploit his victory at Sabang.

I put forward what he could do and nothing has been done by your opponent. Do you really think that a Nemo would have wasted the opportunity which the Sabang victory provided? Nemo would have done something along the lines I outlined.

It really is quite simple.

1. Sabang gave Japan a 6 month window superior land OOB. More available units, battle hardened units, not far from the far lines. The superiority lay not in air units or ships, but in LCUs. Ergo one has to use the land units.

2. Where are those Japanese land units. Not on the front lines so they are either still at Sabang or more likely deployed in accordance with the advice I see time and time again that Japan needs to maintain heavy garrisons on rocks/corals in the middle of the Pacific. Which advice is almost always very wrong. The combination of stacking limits and the fact that neither side has sufficient LCUs to make every rock/coral an impregnable festung. Attempt to do so by cherry picking some locations merely invites the side with control of the SLOC to bypass those locations and hit somewhere else.

3. Ownership of rocks/corals in the middle of the Pacific is never determined by land forces. He who controls the SLOC controls those rocks/corals. IOW one uses the navy to do that. That is what the KB could be used for, especially when the KB was largely irrelevant for exploiting the Sabang victory. So what did you opponent do, he danced a slow sarabande over the Marshalls, never being decisive. When the correct riposte to your move there was to either defeat the Allied fleet or allow the rocks/corals be captured and then calmly recapture them when your navy goes elsewhere. And he could easily do that for as I said, all of those conquests are merely preliminary and not yet critical.

4. In the meantime your opponent after hammering your land frontlines for 4 months would be close to achieving some really worthwhile objectives.

But then all this requires

• patience
• a good strategic mind
• combined arm skills

none of which have ever been much displayed by your opponent. Now someone like Nemo ... If you really believe Sabang was such a success then try replicating it against someone of Nemo's ability and see how good the Allied position would be 4 months afterwards.

The simple fact is that Sabang was an Allied disaster, provided your opponent knew how to take advantage of it. Once again I will repeat the maxim that a mistake is not a mistake unless exploited by the opponent. The other maxim to remember is that luck always favours the stronger player.

Alfred

[Canoerebel]

We've covered this previously, many times and in detail. You've been part of the conversation.

I'm playing John, so I'm playing it that way. If I was playing you or Nemo or other players, I'd have to play it differently, or perhaps auto-victory would have been achieved already.

Both you and Nemo have a fondness for posting in AARs to this effect, "You are deluded if you think you've done anything. Your game is full of holes. Anyone with a lick of sense could see it. It's a miracle that you've gotten where you are and its due only to the incredible holes in your opponents game."

I know these things, but it's still fun to play the game and describe what's happened and what might happen and why I'm doing what I'm doing.