The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Bearcat2]

Thanks for the AAR, read it everyday.

[Canoerebel]

While John doesn't have good detection on the invasion TFs at the moment, the detection levels on three of his subs tell him plenty.

As long as the Allied TFs are between Midway and Wake, the Bonins, Marcus and the Carolines remain viable targets. This should be the case for another five to seven days.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

While John doesn't have good detection on the invasion TFs at the moment, the detection levels on three of his subs tell him plenty.

As long as the Allied TFs are between Midway and Wake, the Bonins, Marcus and the Carolines remain viable targets. This should be the case for another five to seven days.

You don't included the Marianas in the potential targets John has to worry about. I would think they would be his biggest worry.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

While John doesn't have good detection on the invasion TFs at the moment, the detection levels on three of his subs tell him plenty.

As long as the Allied TFs are between Midway and Wake, the Bonins, Marcus and the Carolines remain viable targets. This should be the case for another five to seven days.

You don't included the Marianas in the potential targets John has to worry about. I would think they would be his biggest worry.

Idunno. IMO, the Marianas are only useful for the Allies because:

1) The VP multipliers are high
2) Denying Japan the use of them

Flying extended range B-29 missions against Japan is not all that attractive. Lots of losses for minimal return.

They are of course also useful as stepping stones, but that applies to any island/island group.

[Canoerebel]

Oops, my bad. Actually, I did mean the Marianas. The Allied sub activity and the probing distant recon has been in the Marianas. John should be most worried about them and Marcus foremost, with the Carolines and the Bonins next in order.

[Canoerebel]

10/28/43

Big Tent: The herd continues forward. It's now 33 hexes out of Pearl and about 50 hexes from the first target. No sign of enemy detection today, though two IJN subs were detected, so John has that to chew over.

A YMS northwest of Midway reports detection, probably by navsearch from Marcus. Recon from Wake targeted Tinian, which has 19k troops and 100+ aircraft.

SigInt reports 56th Div. at Ponape. No troublesome reports.

Many IJN subs off the Canadian coast now. Perhaps John sent these to sniff out any move in NoPac. Any sub that's not in CenPac right now is a good sub.

If the Allies do have to divert to the secondary target (Eniwetok), I think Death Star might end up between KB and the island. It'll be hard for John to configure a strong defense, at least to the opening landing. The assault wave consists of an Army RCT 100% prepped and two thirds of 1st Marine Div. 55% prepped. But the Marines have low experience and I forgot to swap out bad commanders. So that campaign will have to be won by bombing and bombardment, like Wake 2.0.

[Lokasenna]

If you're driving for where I think you're driving... interesting. Trying to get John to concentrate his stuff on the Marianas, which is pretty close (but probably a little bit out of range) to your targets is a little gutsy, depending on what route you take through the ocean. Then again, if his LBA sorties alone against your CV-based CAP, that's a lot of "free" VPs for downed planes. Here's hoping John keeps flipping turns quickly so we can read the action [;)].

[Canoerebel]

10/29/43

Big Tent: Japanese naval search picks up the herd as it rumbles west towards Wake Island. From now on, John will know the exact location of the invasion armada, though hopefully he won't guess or suspect the destination for four to six more turns.

John has well configured his subs, which are concentrated on the direct line leading to Wake. No unpleasant encounters today, fortunately, and DE Bedas scored "heavy damage" on I-160.

The first destination is Wake, where some TFs will replenish fuel (and a few, like Bedas, ASW weapons).

The herd made five more hexes today, with the front and tail ends separated by 12 hexes. This will close in a few days while the replenishment and final preparations take place at and near Wake. The front is 38 hexes from Pearl and about 45 from the first beach.

No sign of KB or major concentrations of combat ships (I wouldn't expect such).

SigInt and recon continue to support the notion that the Allies have achieved strategic surprise, if I'm using the term correctly. I don't think John knows the ultimate target. He knows where the armada is and will now follow it carefully, thus preventing operational surprise.

SigInt reports 2nd CDU gun unit at Kavieng; Iwo goes to level one airfield. Recon shows that a dot hex east of Saipan is undefended and still 25k troops (probably including 6th Div.) at Lunga, while John continues the flurry of activity to reinforce Marcus. These and previous reports noted ove the past few days suggest that John is still concentrated heavily forward (Marshalls, Carolines, Solomons, Guadalanal, Tabituea, New Georgia) while working frantically to attend to the Marianas (and perhaps the Bonins).

Wake Island forts go to level three today. If Big Tent carries on to the beaches, Wake will become isolated for a time and will have to stand on its own. I expect strong bombardments and perhaps a counterinvasion.

PBYs move forward to Rongalap today (a dot hex between Allied Wotje and Japanese Eniwetok). This expands the area under surveillance by five hexes.

Lion Tamer: Small amphibious TFs are moving on vacant islands to both sides of New Caledonia. Luganville and Ndeni have modest Japanese garrisons while Lunga is armed to the teeth. These await the outcome of Big Tent. If it succeeds, the flank has been turned on these bases and John will have to scramble to retrieve the garrisons.

NoPac: An IJN sub damages an xAK near Prince Rupert. Lots of subs off the Canadian coast and in NoPac. John will probably release them for duty elsewhere soon, barring the slim chance he has offensive plans up here.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
If you're driving for where I think you're driving... interesting. Trying to get John to concentrate his stuff on the Marianas, which is pretty close (but probably a little bit out of range) to your targets is a little gutsy, depending on what route you take through the ocean. Then again, if his LBA sorties alone against your CV-based CAP, that's a lot of "free" VPs for downed planes. Here's hoping John keeps flipping turns quickly so we can read the action [;)].

I've previously quoted the Moose as saying words to this effect: "There comes a time when the Allies are better off concentrating forces and moving with speed rather than dispersing forces through diversion and slowing down with feinting."

I agree with his sentiments. I could have deployed a mock TF to vector NW from Midway to threaten Hokkaido or to move W to threaten Marcus, etc. But now is not the time for feinting - I'm not going to have operational surprise, but I don't need it if I've prepared correctly and interpreted the map correctly.

But now is the time for strategic misdirection. That's always important in the game.

In this case, I gave a lot of thought to doing things that might lead John to conclude that the Marianas or Bonins were the most likely target (with a nod to the Solomons). This was done by suddently implementing recon where there had been none before, by concentrating subs, by establishing a line of direction (moving on Wake in CenPac, moving on New Caledonia in SoPac) and now suddenly and radically diverting from those vectors and aiming for what SigInt and other intel (especially lack of base building) suggest is a soft underbelly.

I could be wrong about these things. Or I could suffer a nasty defeat en route so that my snazzy plan is stillborn. But I think I'm right.

The first offensive op takes place tomorrow. This will be a surprise attack mainly intended to keep John thinking along these "preferred lines." Something else will happen tomorrow that I won't reveal for about a week. Just keep this in mind: Eldorado.

[JohnDillworth]

I must say I'm surprised by how fast you are able to put together offensives (Aleutians, Marshals, Wake). I shouldn't be. You think like the allies, you are planing offensives a year ahead of time. Even now you are planning 1945. I say all this because John thinks like the Japanese. Smash, grab, decisive battle. I expect John is a bit surprised by how fast you have put together what looks like a HUGE offensive supported by pretty much all the American forces on land, sea and air. I'm not sure John will be prepared to respond to this in a coherent manner, meaning, he was not waiting nor expecting this. Doesn't mean he won't respond and respond well, but I don't think you will blunder into a prepared response. Your said your fleet would be exposed to LBA for about a 5 day period. He has interior lines so I expect you will be OK for 2 or 3 days while he prepares his LBA assets to hit you with concentrated force. He won't attack piecemeal. As for his fleet? I expect a less than 50% chance of a fleet action. Again. he will be surprised at how fast so large a force came together.

[Canoerebel]

Those are encouraging words, John. I hope it's just as you say.

I think John will have a five-day window for his best opportunity to strike. After that, I think I'll hold the upper hand. I'll sweat those five days. That will take place in about a week.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In equal and opposite reaction to John's energy, the AAR has suddenly gone quiet. It's Friday night, so you guys might be wooing lovely women or watching a baseball game.

But I think you're conscientiously avoiding any chance of an OpSec issue and waiting to see what happens. Or maybe everybody's tuned in to Lowpe vs. Jocke. "Beer made me do it 2.0!"

Nah, I just had to wash my hair..

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
If you're driving for where I think you're driving... interesting. Trying to get John to concentrate his stuff on the Marianas, which is pretty close (but probably a little bit out of range) to your targets is a little gutsy, depending on what route you take through the ocean. Then again, if his LBA sorties alone against your CV-based CAP, that's a lot of "free" VPs for downed planes. Here's hoping John keeps flipping turns quickly so we can read the action [;)].

I've previously quoted the Moose as saying words to this effect: "There comes a time when the Allies are better off concentrating forces and moving with speed rather than dispersing forces through diversion and slowing down with feinting."

I agree with his sentiments. I could have deployed a mock TF to vector NW from Midway to threaten Hokkaido or to move W to threaten Marcus, etc. But now is not the time for feinting - I'm not going to have operational surprise, but I don't need it if I've prepared correctly and interpreted the map correctly.

But now is the time for strategic misdirection. That's always important in the game.

In this case, I gave a lot of thought to doing things that might lead John to conclude that the Marianas or Bonins were the most likely target (with a nod to the Solomons). This was done by suddently implementing recon where there had been none before, by concentrating subs, by establishing a line of direction (moving on Wake in CenPac, moving on New Caledonia in SoPac) and now suddenly and radically diverting from those vectors and aiming for what SigInt and other intel (especially lack of base building) suggest is a soft underbelly.

I could be wrong about these things. Or I could suffer a nasty defeat en route so that my snazzy plan is stillborn. But I think I'm right.

The first offensive op takes place tomorrow. This will be a surprise attack mainly intended to keep John thinking along these "preferred lines." Something else will happen tomorrow that I won't reveal for about a week. Just keep this in mind: Eldorado.

There just comes a point where as the Allies you show your hand and dare the enemy to fight you. I think you are probably at this point. His KB and surface force is still strong and a threat, but I would want a major slugging match. Even trading ships will pretty much assure you unimpeded control of the seas for all future rounds.

"I propose to fight it out on this line, if it takes all summer."

[Flicker]

CR - it seems that you've given enough hints. I made a list of what I think are the five major targets. Good luck.

[Canoerebel]

Comment in John's email with latest turn: "I had written on my AAR that I needed at least until November 1st for some time to reorganize. Looks like I got barely that!"

This is his way of saying, "Well, you gave me just enough time to configure my defenses. Thank you."

I'm sure it's true that he's much better than he was prepared immediately after the battle.

So am I. Hornet, Enterprise, Princeton, Bunker Hill, Monterrey, and South Dakota are back in action.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
If you're driving for where I think you're driving... interesting. Trying to get John to concentrate his stuff on the Marianas, which is pretty close (but probably a little bit out of range) to your targets is a little gutsy, depending on what route you take through the ocean. Then again, if his LBA sorties alone against your CV-based CAP, that's a lot of "free" VPs for downed planes. Here's hoping John keeps flipping turns quickly so we can read the action [;)].

I've previously quoted the Moose as saying words to this effect: "There comes a time when the Allies are better off concentrating forces and moving with speed rather than dispersing forces through diversion and slowing down with feinting."

I agree with his sentiments. I could have deployed a mock TF to vector NW from Midway to threaten Hokkaido or to move W to threaten Marcus, etc. But now is not the time for feinting - I'm not going to have operational surprise, but I don't need it if I've prepared correctly and interpreted the map correctly.

But now is the time for strategic misdirection. That's always important in the game.

In this case, I gave a lot of thought to doing things that might lead John to conclude that the Marianas or Bonins were the most likely target (with a nod to the Solomons). This was done by suddently implementing recon where there had been none before, by concentrating subs, by establishing a line of direction (moving on Wake in CenPac, moving on New Caledonia in SoPac) and now suddenly and radically diverting from those vectors and aiming for what SigInt and other intel (especially lack of base building) suggest is a soft underbelly.

I could be wrong about these things. Or I could suffer a nasty defeat en route so that my snazzy plan is stillborn. But I think I'm right.

The first offensive op takes place tomorrow. This will be a surprise attack mainly intended to keep John thinking along these "preferred lines." Something else will happen tomorrow that I won't reveal for about a week. Just keep this in mind: Eldorado.

There just comes a point where as the Allies you show your hand and dare the enemy to fight you. I think you are probably at this point. His KB and surface force is still strong and a threat, but I would want a major slugging match. Even trading ships will pretty much assure you unimpeded control of the seas for all future rounds.

"I propose to fight it out on this line, if it takes all summer."

Trading ships would be OK for the Allies, but they can't afford to lose any more APAs with troops still on them. Subs and LBA strikes always have a die roll factor. Tense times ....

[Canoerebel]

There are classes of ships that I've lost too many of. And I don't want to lose any more APAs or LSI(L)s, but here's a list of all those sunk to date:

[Canoerebel]

10/30/43

Big Tent: The herd thunders through submarine-infested waters, fortunately without suffering any mishaps. An IJN sub took a shot at AE Harpoon but missed. I only have two AE in the armada (and three AKE), so these are particularly precious.

Herring didn't miss though. She put a torp into an AO near Rota (no sinking sounds heard). The primary benefit here is that it is consistent with recent Allied sub activity and kills in this region. Here's hoping John is still thinking "Marianas."

The opening shots were fired today as elements of 50th Indian Paratroops took Bikini Atoll by para-assault. Transports will bring in supply and some aviation support. This base may be flying PBYs the day after tomorrow. Again, the effort is to try to keep John thinking "Marianas, Marshalls, Solomons, Bonins" rather than "the real target."

Eldorado - a nifty little special ops action - also took place today. I won't reveal it for about a week.

The herd is 43 hexes out of Pearl and 40 from the first target. (Many of you now have a good idea of the general location of the Big Tent targets. I noted that one of you has written down his guess as to the five major targets. I think Forumites might guess 3 of the 5, but I doubt anybody would conceivably get all 5 of them.)

John has lots going on today, so I think the next turn might not come until this evening or tonight.

Happy Father's Day to all you gents that are fathers. To those of you who aren't, Happy Father's Day to your fathers.

[Capt. Harlock]

"I propose to fight it out on this line, if it takes all summer."

Of course, it actually took eleven months -- but come to think of it, winning the game in September/October 1944 would be no mean feat!

[Lokasenna]

You've lost too many, and you've lost only 5 (1 or 2 of which withdraw anyway)?! Sheesh.