Wrangling Loki - Mind_Messing (J) vs Lokasenna (A)

[Lowpe]

Really well done!

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Really well done!

+1

[mind_messing]

Eh, I know how Pyrrhus of Epirus felt after that. I won, but the cost was high, and I've not actually done any serious harm to the Allied war machine. Still, a battle won is better than a battle lost. Need to capitalise on it to milk it for all its worth.

[obvert]

Nice work!

All you have to do is keep hitting him as he comes forward. Take a tithe for all space lost! [:)]

[Bif1961]

Looks like all his CVEs will be sunk or at least unable to provide air cover. I know Allies get 100+ CVEs but this will put a crimp in short time operations until these can be replaced. A good display of what a prepared japanese defender can do against an Allied player who thinks Japan is beat.

[mind_messing]

Here's the situation on the ground.



I'm going to keep the KB around for another day or two while I bring in two DD forces and another CL TF. The KB will sidestep to the south-west in case any Allied suicide DD task forces have a go at them. I'm quite content with just sending lighter IJN ships into action as the Allies don't seem to have anything larger than a CL, and they've spent their ammo bombarding Sorong this turn.

If the Allies run for the hills, as I think they might, these ships will bombard the living daylights out of the Allied troops on shore and withdraw.

[mind_messing]

Here's the air losses for today.



More than 400 aircraft is a steep price to pay for such a victory, it's not too bad considering. Zero's are abundant. The D4Y3 is now an outdated model with the D3Y4 in production, and I've a couple hundred for the 'D3 in the pools. About 40% of the Judy losses came from a land-based squadron, so the KB isn't hurt too badly in that regard.

The Grace's hurt the most, seeing as I'm trying to convert the CV torpedo squadrons to them. Jill's are in abundance, seeing as they'll be my main '45 kamikazie plane. The other losses should be absorbed by the ample pools.

In terms of pilots, I've more IJN dive and torpedo bomber pilots than I would know what to do with, though IJN fighter pilots are a bit scarce. IJA losses weren't too bad so shouldn't be a problem.

[mind_messing]

August 7th, 1944

SWPAC

I'm trying to capitalize on the success of the action of Sorong for all that it's worth. Quite a great deal happened, so I'll condense the turn and focus on the important engagements.

After their success the previous day, the light cruisers Nagara and Abukuma make their escape after an inconclusive engagement with some Fletchers. This is great, as it draws the Allied ships away from their destroyer escorts, which parted ways due to damage the previous day.

Some slow E-class escorts that I had sent to interfere with the landings find two task forces, some APA's and the CVE Shipley Bay, but get driven off by the escorting American destroyers without causing any real damage. Later in the day the E-class ships run into an American heavy cruiser force and get smashed. I'd rather lose expendable ASW ships that real combat ships.

The Matsu-class destroyers get their combat debut as they hunt down Allied ships operating around Biak while Allied attention is drawn to the north.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Biak at 88,109, Range 12,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Matsu
DD Momo
DD Take

Allied Ships
AM Champion, Shell hits 9, heavy fires, heavy damage
AM Competent, Shell hits 3, on fire
SC-640, Shell hits 4, on fire
AK Arided, Shell hits 6, on fire
AK Murzim, Shell hits 26, heavy fires, heavy damage
AK Sterope, Shell hits 17, heavy fires
AK Naos, Shell hits 43, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
AK Venus, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk


Night Time Surface Combat, near Biak at 87,109, Range 14,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Matsu
DD Momo
DD Take

Allied Ships
AK Phobos, Shell hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
AKA Artemis
AKA Andromeda, Shell hits 4, on fire
LCI(G)-220
LCI(G)-366
LCI(G)-465
LCI(G)-466
LCI-622, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LCI-624
LCI-625
LCI-626
LCI-627
LCI-629, Shell hits 2, and is sunk

Some B-25's strafe the Japanese destroyers during the night phase; the Matsu takes a bomb and the other ships get some .50 sized ventilation ducts installed. The effectiveness of night-time strafing attacks from the B-25s was a concern - this might be a very effective use of B-25s for Loka, so I need to watch...

Later on in the day the Take wanders into an American cruiser force and gets sunk.

Daybreak sees a Fletcher death-squad roam against a convoy heading for Japan with resources. These ships had been dropping troops off on Java, and just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Carelessness on my part:

Day Time Surface Combat, near Talaud-eilanden at 78,99, Range 18,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Konsan Maru
PB Mikage Maru, Shell hits 21, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Hokko Maru, Shell hits 3, heavy fires
xAK Miyadono Maru, Shell hits 2
xAK Sekiho Maru, Shell hits 4, on fire
xAK Sinkyo Maru, Shell hits 1
xAK Taian Maru, Shell hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Yamahagi Maru, Shell hits 3, on fire
xAK Ryusei Maru, Shell hits 3
xAK Tosei Maru
xAK Nitiho Maru, Shell hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Hokkai Maru
xAK Cheribon Maru

Allied Ships
DD Bennett
DD Bradford
DD Erben
DD Haggard
DD Hale
DD Sigourney

In the air, we get a good start to the day with sweeps in Burma, but a small flight of Jills puts down a wounded Allied CVE from the previous day:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Sansapor at 83,107

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 4
Ki-84a Frank x 9

Allied aircraft
Kittyhawk IV x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Kittyhawk IV: 6 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVE Petrof Bay, Kamikaze hits 1, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B6N2 Jill bombing from 3000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

I had these aircraft on low-nav attack with bombs seeing as we were saving torpedos for the IJA/IJN 2E torpedo bombers, so a kami hit was great, and confirmation of another sunk CVE is great!

Not to be outdone by the IJN, some IJA dive-bombers fly and sink some more shipping, including another CVE:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Sansapor at 84,107

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-48-IIc Lily x 24
Ki-100-I Tony x 12

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-48-IIc Lily: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
FM-2 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
TBM-1C Avenger: 4 destroyed

Allied Ships
DE Mitchell, Bomb hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVE Thetis Bay, Bomb hits 9, and is sunk
DE Reynolds, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DE Bangust, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage

Scratch two-flat tops. Unless it's FOW, I'm amazed at the resilience of the Allied CVE's. Both the Thetis Bay and Petrof Bay tooks serious damage on the 6th, so it's a testament to Allied damage control. Or Loka got lucky. In my experience with Allied CVE's they've not been the most resilient of ships to battle damage.

On the ground, the fighting intenifes as I try to throw the Allies out of Sorong and rush reinforcements to Sansapor.

Ground combat at Sorong (82,107)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 15924 troops, 172 guns, 136 vehicles, Assault Value = 252

Defending force 1863 troops, 39 guns, 58 vehicles, Assault Value = 51

Japanese adjusted assault: 140

Allied adjusted defense: 43

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), experience(-)
Attacker: disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
388 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 27 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 12 disabled
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
106 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled

Assaulting units:
2nd Amphibious Brigade
4th Raiding Rgt /1
19th JAAF Base Force
18th JAAF AF Bn
27th Special Base Force
26th JAAF Base Force
77th Field AA Battalion
46th JNAF AF Unit
209th JAAF AF Bn

Defending units:
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
223rd Field Artillery Battalion
131st Field Artillery Battalion


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Sansapor (83,107)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 13070 troops, 244 guns, 246 vehicles, Assault Value = 528

Defending force 9427 troops, 106 guns, 47 vehicles, Assault Value = 175

Allied adjusted assault: 164

Japanese adjusted defense: 124

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker: fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
403 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 38 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled

Allied ground losses:
211 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Assaulting units:
24th (Sep) Infantry Regiment
27th Infantry Division
112th Cavalry Regiment

Defending units:
51st Ind.Mixed Brigade
17th Ind.Mixed Regiment
13th Field AF Construction Battalion
29th Fld AA Gun Co
16th Field AF Construction Battalion
56th Construction Battalion
37th JNAF AF Unit

I'm sending a great many IJN warships, including the 4 Kongo's, to smash the Allied troops at Sansapor and hopefully buy some time. Supply is low, however, and I'm not sure if I can stop Allied air power from interfering.

Thailand

Big Japanese raid on Chang Mai closes the airbase and catches a lot of transport planes on the ground. Costly for me, but I do kill off a lot of planes.

A big stack of mixed Chinese and Indian troops trashes two divisions outside Raheng because I got careless and left them unsupported. Back to being on the defensive for the meantime here then...

B-29s continue to hammer one of my divisions in the open.

Still trying to scrape troops together to stabilize this front. Not really sure what my long term plan is here now: this theatre is a mess and it will bleed me dry given the time. I don't want to withdraw any further south if I can help it, as the B-29s are already intimidatingly close to Singapore and Sumatra. Advice is welcome...

[mind_messing]

"It's better to be lucky than good"

That applies to my situation more than I'm comfortable with.

As an aside, nice article on the origins of the phrase - http://philippine-defenders.lib.wv.us/p ... tt_bio.pdf

I'll give details once I decide how I'm going to write it up.

[mind_messing]

August 8th to August 12, 1944

Where we left off, the IJN had just scored a nice victory over the USN, with the sinking of several escort carriers and some amphibious ships attempting to land US troops at Sorong and Sansapor, on the north-western extremity of New Guinea.

We will chart events day-by-day, to provide a nice summary of the present situation.

August 8th

Both sides draw back from the carnage of August 7th. The USN appear to have suffered badly and pull back their warships to the Biak area. Japanese aircraft pick off a few straggling warships.

Kongo's bombard Sorong and retire to Manila to rearm.

The KB, with some air-groups badly mauled, beats a retreat to Soerabaja for replenishment.

August 9th

A Japanese counterattack wipes out the last Allied unit at Sorong. Sansapor still holds out.

Scattered battles in the air, with the Japanese coming off second-best.

August 10th

A second Allied amphibious force makes an appearance off Sorong, landing the 1st Cav Division. Japanese air-power is on stand-down to recover after the previous weeks battles, and does a poor job of interdicting the landings. Those aircraft that do fly do so unescorted and are slaughtered by Allied LRCAP as a result.

The Allies land more troops at Latuem on Timor. Japanese air does a better job here, with two torpedoes in a light cruiser, but the Allied ships had no air cover.

KB reaches Soerabaja and draws replacements.

August 11th

Renewed landings at Sorong continue.

Allied deliberate attack occurs at Sansapor. The base holds, but forts are down to 1 and the Japanese defenders have little supply.

Allied deliberate attack occurs at Sorong. The Japanese hold out with an 11:1 roll, but the Allies inflict far greater losses.

B-29's hit Balikipapan and knock 44 points off the oil.

There is one curious line in the SigInt report.

SIG INT REPORT FOR Aug 11, 44

Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Sydney (90,167).
Radio transmissions detected at Anchorage (181,36).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Hollandia (93,116).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Colombo (29,48).
Radio transmissions detected at 32,70. - Some way west of Sabang, off Northern Sumatra.
Radio transmissions detected at Hilo (183,111).

I rarely check Japanese SigInt, normally glancing over it to see if I get any DL raises in big bases to perhaps get a peek at what is inside. My initial reaction was to dismiss it as a sub - a RN sub had been picketed off Sabang for a long time, and it might have been that transiting. I was tired, and went to bed.

Then the cogs really started turning.

- No USN fleet carriers seen since when?
- Allied 4E's seem to have enjoyed hitting Sabang. This wrecked my long-range search squadrons ability to operate. Why Sabang and not the oil at Medan?
- Chinese troops in India/Burma means no British/Indian troops for garrisons. Where are they?
- CVE only landing at Sorong/Sansapor. Why?
- Email/chat comments suggest something is up. Steam chat with Loka gets a comment along the lines of him having "loaded Japans entire GDP up".

So, I was convinced this was something worth following up. The KB was sent from Soerabaja to Singapore, and a few nearby air squadrons were shifted around to give me eyes on the region.

[mind_messing]

...and so, on Aug 12th, this is what I see.



The question I ask now is what the hell do I do?

I'll get an annotated picture up at some point tomorrow.

My initial thoughts run along the lines of:

- Get KB in theatre.
- Strip every non-critical theatre and ram stuff into Medan.
- Ball of yarn CAP over Palembang.
- The IJN's new home is Singapore.

[mind_messing]

So here's my thinking.



Bases marked in brown are those bases I can mount offensive air strikes from. Aviation support is a little weak on the ground, so I need to transfer some in ASAP. The need is particularly pressing in Malaya.

Option A involves the KB moving to the western side of Sumatra and directly engaging the Allied CV force.
Advantages: lots of sea room to move around it
Disadvantages: really far away from my airbases if the Allies want a carrier clash

Option B involves the KB moving to the eastern side of Sumatra and sitting off the likely invasion beaches.
Advantages: right in the middle of my airbases in the region
Disadvantages: the narrow confines of the Malacca straits screams "surface engagements to me"

On the ground, things are pretty poor. The division in Sabang won't hold. Level 3 forts and a crap TOE in clear terrain will get smashed by the pre-landing bombardment.

Sibolga isn't much better: a 160 AV brigade behind level 5 forts. At least it is Jungle Rough terrain.

Medan has another 160 AV brigade, and forts should make level 6 next turn.

What troops I have loaded and at sea are being diverted to the region. Empty troop ships are heading to the nearest port and grabbing whatever isn't tied down to respond. I'm robbing the Luzon garrison yet again, and might buy a division from Formosa for use in Malaya. Aviation support from Thailand will rail down once I clear the rail line.

I think the outcome of events here will be decided a carrier engagement. If Loka wins outright, I'll lose my oil production. A draw, and I'll still lose my oil production. If I get an outright win, there's a chance I can isolate and contain the landings.

I'll be going all in on this one.

[Lowpe]

It is August of 44, so you have done well with oil as long as you have kept up with the shipping -- which I am sure you have done.[;)]

Your first picture had few details other than the para landing and sightings.

Whatever you decide to do, just remember this is still a long war and this, whatever it is, is just a battle.

I think the Japanese mindset come 1944 needs to switch to thinking about victory points and their trade offs. If you attack will you get more victory points than you will lose? Will you have ships and planes left for force in being concept to slow Allied advances?

Personally, I think your perimeter is huge and you need to shrink it back. Fighting on the perimeter is extremely costly for Japan in everything.

Let me posit a quick scenario...you retreat, salvaging your troops and ships to interior/shorter lines. Conserving fuel and supply. Ever shrinking your perimeter to a hold fast line 25 hexes or so from the HI plus China. Hit the Allies where they are weak, and avoid the clash of the titans...but you do nibble at him.

Another scenario is you hit hard with everything. Strength versus strength.

Will you be better off with option A or B in six months time? I will never forget Mr. Kane vs. Spidery which featured an early attack at Tjilatajp and huge carrier/surface fights which saw Japan savaged. And Mr. Kane remarked after the fact he never would have invaded if not for the carrier clash victory. If I recall, Spidery had bad luck with the weather, but Mr. Kane made his own luck with great TF composition and outstanding search.

Your call.[:)]

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Your call.[:)]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZ63VnQei-k

[:)]


I'll get some posts up on the industrial situation of the Empire.

[mind_messing]

Industry as of August 12, 1944

Japan Stockpiles

Oil: 880,526 (113 days of production)
Fuel: 1,032,080 (85 days of production: 350k on Hokkaido as a last reserve is about 30 days of production)
Supply: 2,826,046

Stockpiles of fuel and oil elsewhere are pretty low. Java, Sumatra and Malaya don't have anything higher than 100k of fuel or oil stored, a testament to the efficiency with which I've been drawing it back to Japan. Credit to Nygiants, who provided the tanker system to draw from Palembang.

Resources are likely sorted until the end of the war. Just not been shipping them out yet.

Resources in Japan proper: 14,382,620 (170 days production)
Resources in China: 2,159,024
Resources on Sakhalin: 1,986,243 (need to get this down over the next few months)
Resources in Manchuria: 1,500,351

So, that's about 5 million within easy sail of the Home Islands. Makes me wish I'd taken the gamble this game and went big on LI expansion. It would have been paying dividends off by this point and that's with a great many of my resource centres unexploited. Not sure how it would have impacted fuel consumption when you factor in the additional convoys running. Perhaps something for me next game.

Strategic Implications

With just 3 months of fuel in the tank, I feel compelled to fight for Sumatra. Without the easy access to Palembang, it just as too many bad consequences for my future operations elsewhere.

As a precautionary measure, the empire is going into hibernation in terms of naval operations. The gaggles of SC and E class ships I have carting around on ASW will stop, except in combat areas or where air search has spotted known subs. Non-essential convoys will stop, and every effort will be made to get fuel and oil back to Japan over the next few months.

Still plotting the turn. The KB will fight, just not sure how yet.

[mind_messing]

I've went for a completely different option: Option C

Deploy the KB off the east coast of Malaya. All possible invasion sites on mainland Sumatra are within 8 hexes of the invasion beach, and perfectly safe from Allied surface assets.

Finishing up the turn now. Banzai!

[savelius2]

Good luck! At this point in the war getting a good result from a carrier clash is really hard. I hope you have enough LBA to whittle away his cap, there have been a lot of extremely one sided '44 and '45 results recently. Banzai!

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Industry as of August 12, 1944

Japan Stockpiles

Oil: 880,526 (113 days of production)
Fuel: 1,032,080 (85 days of production: 350k on Hokkaido as a last reserve is about 30 days of production)
Supply: 2,826,046

Stockpiles of fuel and oil elsewhere are pretty low. Java, Sumatra and Malaya don't have anything higher than 100k of fuel or oil stored, a testament to the efficiency with which I've been drawing it back to Japan. Credit to Nygiants, who provided the tanker system to draw from Palembang.

Resources are likely sorted until the end of the war. Just not been shipping them out yet.

Resources in Japan proper: 14,382,620 (170 days production)
Resources in China: 2,159,024
Resources on Sakhalin: 1,986,243 (need to get this down over the next few months)
Resources in Manchuria: 1,500,351

So, that's about 5 million within easy sail of the Home Islands. Makes me wish I'd taken the gamble this game and went big on LI expansion. It would have been paying dividends off by this point and that's with a great many of my resource centres unexploited. Not sure how it would have impacted fuel consumption when you factor in the additional convoys running. Perhaps something for me next game.

Strategic Implications

With just 3 months of fuel in the tank, I feel compelled to fight for Sumatra. Without the easy access to Palembang, it just as too many bad consequences for my future operations elsewhere.

As a precautionary measure, the empire is going into hibernation in terms of naval operations. The gaggles of SC and E class ships I have carting around on ASW will stop, except in combat areas or where air search has spotted known subs. Non-essential convoys will stop, and every effort will be made to get fuel and oil back to Japan over the next few months.

Still plotting the turn. The KB will fight, just not sure how yet.

Just a couple of thoughts ... counter-current.

You are low on supply at this point, just below 3M in the HI. To have gone "BIG" on LI would mean what? 3000/day? 3M supply investment? Your economy would have crashed some time ago.

Expanding LI needs a longer time horizon than the game allows. If the game started in '39, yeah, LI expansion would definitely be a thought. But '42? no payment until late '44, it isn't in the cards.

[Lowpe]

I have to say, I was hoping to see much healthier supply stockpiles. Are they growing?

Scenario one though, and you still have oil and will have it most likely for another 30-90 days if this is the big invasion. Plus your stockpiles are fairly decent.

Longer if this is merely a feint/raid.

You have done really, very well.

I don't see the payback for LI industry expansion. Maybe a tad bit, but man it does really put a strain on shipping and accumulating resources. Scenario 1 -- I just don't think you have the economy to justify it.

Just really worried about your supply stockpile, but really I am more worried about your perimeter given that this is a scenario 1 game.

Good luck on whatever happens next!

[njp72]

Yep and I reckon that is the best option too.

I would try to target shipping other than his CVs by setting the ranges of your strike aircraft on KB.

The best way to neutralise his CVs is by destroying his navy aircraft, especially via sweeps by your LBA. His carriers will have to be wedded to stationary positions protecting his transports which will make them susceptible to sweeps. If the CV airwings commence a battle of attrition with your LBA, this will be a big win for the Empire.

A straight up carrier clash would be suicide at this juncture.

Good luck

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I've went for a completely different option: Option C

Deploy the KB off the east coast of Malaya. All possible invasion sites on mainland Sumatra are within 8 hexes of the invasion beach, and perfectly safe from Allied surface assets.

Finishing up the turn now. Banzai!