The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post descriptions of your brilliant victories and unfortunate defeats here.

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richlove
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by richlove »

Approximately when are you planning to invade Wake Island? Do you have any sense of what the USN:IJN CV ratio will be at that time? Could you continue your advance if you lose this fight? Finally, to Bullwinkle's point, could John do anything decisive at Kwaj while your carriers are off station? Could he land more troops, or bombard, or fly in reinforcements? Could he unwind some of your gains from Thin Man?

I personally don't know which way I'd go. I'm glad I get to watch from the sidelines. This is riveting.

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crsutton
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by crsutton »

It is a toss up. Given the strength I would not decline a battle if I thought it favorable. But knowing the extra force that John has there is no fault in declining an equal fight-which is about what it would be at this stage. An even up fight probably means trading ships which is not a bad thing. However, my perspective from an Allied standpoint is that as the year passes the onus for John to try and force an action grows. You gain an advantage with each arriving carrier. The opportunity then arrives for him to do something rash.

So, If it were me. I would continue with operations and use my carriers to support them. If he declines then so much the better as another objective falls. If he accepts, well then it is time for battle. But I would not necessarily go out looking for him. The last operation was a big failure for him as he really did not achieve much and burned up to way much fuel not doing so. His alternative lessen every day. A solid Japanese player would have no choice but to feel the pressure.

I think I am going to have to sleep on this and get back to you....
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Canoerebel
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Ross, I hope you read my post on the preceding page about your dream. :)
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Canoerebel
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

ORIGINAL: richlove

Approximately when are you planning to invade Wake Island? Do you have any sense of what the USN:IJN CV ratio will be at that time? Could you continue your advance if you lose this fight? Finally, to Bullwinkle's point, could John do anything decisive at Kwaj while your carriers are off station? Could he land more troops, or bombard, or fly in reinforcements? Could he unwind some of your gains from Thin Man? ...


Good point, richlove. If I avoid a carrier battle, I can probably pull the trigger on the Wake Island invasion when Bunker Hill arrives. That would only delay things a few days. The invasion APAs leave Pearl tomorrow, and I think Bunker Hill et al will reach Pearl in perhaps five days? It wouldn't be stretch.

If the Allies lost a carrier fight, I'd have to postpone offensive activity like Wake, but I don't think John could unravel anything in the Marshalls now - the islands are too strongly held.

As for Kwaj, I'll know tomorrow. If my deliberate attack drops forts, then I think John will give up on the island as hopeless. I've had LRCAP over it more or less every day for ten days - no sign he's flying in reinforcements or supply. He hasn't sent in any bombardment TFs since the Kongos got turned back. I'm wondering if he isn't alarmed at the strength of the Allied "nest of bases."

I don't think an Allied attack against six forts can overcome a garrison in one turn, but I'll be disappointed if forts don't drop two or three levels.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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paullus99
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by paullus99 »

If you can keep him occupied on multiple angles of advance, simultaneously, John will have a hard time concentrating his assets against you.
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Bullwinkle58
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'd never heard that before, Moose. Or, if I had, I'd forgotten. By that standard, I've (intuitively or accidentally) done a good job staying on task here in the Marshalls.

We are entering the phase in which the only thing stopping the Allies from moving forward is KB. I'm satisfied now that I have learned enough and have enough assets to take or wear down any base for which I have troops prepped. I have troops prepped for all the Aleutians and all the remaining islands in the Marshalls and to the west (short of Truk). Each of these islands is strongly garrisoned, so each step takes time (organize, move, land, batter, rinse, repeat).

So beating KB would be decisive. But I don't know if I have the assets yet to have a 60/40 chance of winning. It's probably more like 51/49 at the moment (at least from visible factors).

Do not ever look for a fair fight with your carriers. Run from a fair fight. Your currency is time remaining; his is delay. Even if you win a fair fight the damage costs you many months' repair.

I disagree the KB is your only impediment. You obsess on it. It's in nearly every post. But if he lost it he still has huge numbers of torpedo 2Es, he has forts on many islands, he doesn't have to deal with replacement pools (much), he has interior lines, and he has unlimited tactical aircraft. The KB is a tool. It's not the game. Your carriers are a tool too. Their main purpose is covering landings to prevent loss of precious large, true amphibs. If your HRs allow, perhaps an oil raid or two. But your carriers are not decisive either. They're a thumb on the scale, a time saver. In many areas of the map they're actually a hindrance to movement forward. They're supply and fuel pigs. And islands don't sink and never need a shipyard.

He needs to slow you down and he needs VPs. He wants a fair fight. Things get much worse for him over the next year. Don't give him one.
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Canoerebel
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

I read your post and thought, "Hmmm. There's some wisdom there. I think I ought to listen."

On rare occasions, I go back and read a few pages of posts for one reason or another. When I do, I'm always a bit embarrassed (sorta like when I heard my recorded voices for the first time and thought, "Do I sound like that?"). I say things over and over and over. Me, I, me, I.

In isolation, taken one at a time, each post is fine. As a series of 10 posts, they seem clunky and verbose.

[X(]

"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Bullwinkle58
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

I know how easy it is to get micro in turn-by-turn mode. It's hard to step back and "chunk out" the map against time. I think you do this, but I'm not sure how many hops ahead you analyze. Before you know it it'll be 1/1/44. Then the summer of 44, and the end of the war is in sight. I'm in April 44 now, and it's not a good place to be in my game. Lokasenna has been thinking five steps ahead the whole way. I've learned a lot, but the past is the past.

I'm not sure at this point John teaches you anything you don't already know, and that can lead to mistakes. His letting you see his TFs day after day after day is just amazing to me in relation to my game. For one example.

Very soon--or now-you don't have to react to him any more. He has to react to you. I know you thought Nemo was the ultimate player. He was very, very good, and his central tenet, repeated ad nauseam, was determine your objectives and drive on them regardless of cost. Work the body, don't let him breathe.

Next row of islands? Good. What does the map look like on New Year's 1945?
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Canoerebel
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

I do think that far ahead (sort of), though I often don't go into details for op sec reasons. But I have touched on the plan through the end of the year.

The main effort will continue to be in CenPac. There may be some selective island hopping - I've already bypassed Tabituea and I'm probably going to bypass Kusaie. I intend to hit Wake, Eniwetok, Ponape, and probably Truk. The Admiralties and vicinity are possibilities, as is Amchitka up north.

Realistically, by the end of the year I expect to have least Wake, Eniwetok and Ponape. If those three go well, there will be movement forward or laterally. This biggest question is whether I have time before winter to move on Amchitka and, if I do, whether I want to move everything north to make it happen. I'll make that decision by October 15.

As for '44, I know where I'm goin', but I aint sayin' yet.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by BBfanboy »

Carpe Diem.
You may have better balance of forces in a month when your reinforcements are with the DS, but you may never get the opportunity to take on KB away from LBA.
The only negative for you is that he could potentially put out more BB/CA TFs to distract your strikes than you can? If you have some sacrificial low value merchies or AGs to offer (you can convert lots of ships to AGs to make up) it could help you.

Wild thoughts - has anyone ever ordered a carrier night attack on other carriers? No significant CAP to worry about and his radar is likely still poor. Not likely to succeed but wouldn't it be fun to watch!
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
poodlebrain
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by poodlebrain »

The only way that the KB can link up with what you believe to be the AO TF during the first naval movement phase is for the KB to sail due west and the AO TF to sail due east. Otherwise one or both of them would have to sail full speed to link, which is doubtful. If you think the Japanese intention is to link for refueling the KB as soon as possible, then you can predict where that will occur with a pretty high degree of certainty. I'd be asking myself if I can take advantage of knowing where the KB is going to be, and that it will be using OPs at that location?

I see two possible courses of action that might give me the advantage I want. Either risking battle with an immobilized KB, or trying to ambush the mini-KB if it moves toward the KB. Personally, I'm not convinced there is enough advantage to initiating battle with the KB to justify the risks to operations you have planned for the near future. I'd be more inclined to try and ambush the mini-KB as I think it is a low risk move. Sailing NE from Maloelap at full speed would get you within range of the mini-KB if the mini-KB sails SE toward the KB, and you could possibly intercept the mini-KB outside the strike range of the KB, who will be immobilized while refueling. If the intercept fails you retire back to the Marshalls and resume preparation for other planned operations.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

So many possibilities! I can't wait to get the next turn (should be sometime this afternoon) to see what's what and to begin weighing and sifting.

Thanks for lots of good insights. It's pretty neat that good and experienced players see things differently. That's a reflection on the complexity of the game. If we all knew exactly what to do when, the game would grow stale pretty fast. No danger of that.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Encircled
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Encircled »

If he really is refuelling right in the middle of your forces, then thats ballsy.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

There's no doubt his AOs are there. It's possible he didn't know where my carriers were (he's had spotty detection). But he had to assunme they were within calling distance. Perhaps this raid and the various weird permutaitons - including the AOs - is why he unleashed that string of "Crazy!" posts in his AAR?
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by poodlebrain »

I just happened to notice current locations for known forces dictating possible locations for the expected actions of those known forces. Sort of a happy coincidence rather than any superior skills on my part, and it was dependent on some of your comments, as well as those of others, with respect to your current situation. I wish I was as observant when I'm plotting my moves without the luxury of time pressure and the benefit of other peoples' perspectives.
Never trust a man who's ass is wider than his shoulders.
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Encircled
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Encircled »

Going to be an interesting turn whatever happens!

I don't think I'd ever try that in all honesty, not where he is.
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Cap Mandrake
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Cap Mandrake »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
In isolation, taken one at a time, each post is fine. As a series of 10 posts, they seem clunky and verbose.

[X(]



Naaaah. You are being way to harsh on yourself. Not verbose, just too many words. [;)]
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I'm not sure at this point John teaches you anything you don't already know, and that can lead to mistakes. His letting you see his TFs day after day after day is just amazing to me in relation to my game. For one example.

Very soon--or now-you don't have to react to him any more. He has to react to you. I know you thought Nemo was the ultimate player. He was very, very good, and his central tenet, repeated ad nauseam, was determine your objectives and drive on them regardless of cost. Work the body, don't let him breathe.

Next row of islands? Good. What does the map look like on New Year's 1945?

Yes. Good points all.

Nemo, I'd think, would take advantage of his opponent's mistakes in every way possible toward that objective. In this case, the solo-mini-KB has been one "mistake," the KB refueling and losing ops in range of the death star is another. I often say a mistake is not a mistake unless your opponent proves it so. The trouble in this game is you have so many to choose from it's hard to decide! [:D]
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
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crsutton
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by crsutton »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Ross, I hope you read my post on the preceding page about your dream. :)

It is my suggestion now that you do not engage in any fleet actions until I have had a chance to interpret my dreams. Only truly enlightened play will suffice for your cause and lead you to the Gates of Jade...

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by desicat »

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Ross, I hope you read my post on the preceding page about your dream. :)

It is my suggestion now that you do not engage in any fleet actions until I have had a chance to interpret my dreams. Only truly enlightened play will suffice for your cause and lead you to the Gates of Jade...

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Danger - Once gain veering off into a Mandrake like thread.
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