The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Capt. Harlock]

right now it looks like McClellan vs. McClellan

Now there's a low blow to a Civil War buff! I'm thinking more along the lines of the Mine Run Campaign of Lee vs. Meade.

[Canoerebel]

8/25/43

Thin Man: The awkward dance continues. Mini KB indeed steamed north, nine more hexes, and is certain now to complete a JEG Stuart circumambulation. But Mini KB and Steroid KB are separated by 35 hexes and the Marshalls, so there will be no union in the near future.

Also, the Kongo TF fled the scene, ending up 10 hexes SW of Tabituea. So it's not a near term threat.

That means the Allies have a bit of a window to offload supply and attend to some other important objectives - including the first steps to draw down Jaluit's garrison.

I should emphasize that the day opened with an IJN sub missing a shot at Yorktown. This is the first shot John's gotten at an Allied CV in months...and the first time during this op that the CVs weren't following an ASW TF. So I've corrected that and will take due note.

It is clear that John is as wary of me as I am of him. He could tire of the dance and pounce, so I'll keep a wary eye on him.

Circus: No sign of enemy combat ships up here. John is probably diverting everything "to the center of the map." So I'd better look out for that pounce. But I think it's possible the Allies could wrap up most of the supply distribution and overstacked unit retrieval in four days or so. At that point, if things remain very hot, I will have the option of retiring to Pearl, joining up with Washington, Indianapolis, Alabama and soon to arrive Bunker Hill and Monterrey. Then I can seek to re-engage, either in the Marshalls or in NoPac.

The Allies are attending to fuel distribution - mainly to Kodiak but also to Dutch Harbor - so that refueling isn't a problem when the time comes.

[BBfanboy]

Your APDs should be fast enough to operate between Jaluit and the other bases at night. You might want to consider a FT troop pickup mission.

[Canoerebel]

Good idea. I have two returning to Mili from Tarawa and will put them to such use. The other four got caught up in the flight of merchants to the east upon approach of different KBs. Now they're way over east of Johnson Island. But they'll be back (I hope).

[Skyland]

IMHO you should go for mini KB now. If you have some CV damaged during the battle, you are closer to PH and out of reach from main KB. Damaged CV could be replaced by Bunker Hill and Monterrey.
You could temporarily leave your transports under Mili protection.

[Canoerebel]

Mili would be overwhelmed, as would 250 Allied ships. If Death Star moved strongly after Mini KB, creating enough separation, John could then turn his full attention to Mili. That base, with it's 250 fighters, would be overwhelmed by KB's 1100 aircraft supplemented by hundreds of land-based air...and visits by Kongos et al. Death Star is what's keeping John at bay.

It's not certain that would happen, but neither is it certain that Death Star can catch Mini KB. It's hard to catch a TF in the open ocean that begins with a big head start and doesn't want to be caught. To increase my odds to a reasonable percentage, I need to use at least one day of flank speed plus guessing right. If I miscalculate, Death Star is suddenly low on fuel, far from Mili, and aggressive John can pounce.

So I think remaining focused on the task at hand is Job 1. If I do that, John has to come into my nest to attack, which he badly wants to do. And if he doesn't attack, Death Star gets major reinforcements inside a month. The odds won't be growing in his favor.

[Canoerebel]

I took a look at John's AO replenishment inventory. If my information is correct (mainly: on the assumption that he doesn't have the ability to convert TKs or other ships to AOs), here's what he gets and what's been sunk:

To this point (including any reinforcing ships schedule to arrive through January 1, 1944), John could have a total of 22 AOs:

10 pointers - 1
18 pointers - 12
26 pointers - 5
28 pointers - 4

He's lost 12 of these:

10 pointers - 0
18 pointers - 7
26 pointers - 4
28 pointers - 1

That leaves him with 10, and most of these are the smaller variety.

Are the Japanese able to convert ships to AO?

If not, I think this is another Achilles heel point of information about the Kaigun. Everything is important, but I think John has serious shortages of CA, DD and AO.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I took a look at John's AO replenishment inventory. If my information is correct (mainly: on the assumption that he doesn't have the ability to convert TKs or other ships to AOs), here's what he gets and what's been sunk:

To this point (including any reinforcing ships schedule to arrive through January 1, 1944), John could have a total of 22 AOs:

10 pointers - 1
18 pointers - 12
26 pointers - 5
28 pointers - 4

He's lost 12 of these:

10 pointers - 0
18 pointers - 7
26 pointers - 4
28 pointers - 1

That leaves him with 10, and most of these are the smaller variety.

Are the Japanese able to convert ships to AO?

If not, I think this is another Achilles heel point of information about the Kaigun. Everything is important, but I think John has serious shortages of CA, DD and AO.

Some tankers can be converted to AOs and a few come throughout the game as they are built. It might cramp his style, though. For most IJ players wouldn't be such a loss, but he has the KB on the move continually, so for him it has to be tough.

Which brings me to the fact that IJN ships have smaller bunkers than their Allied counterparts in many cases, especially DDs. The mini-KB can't be able to do many turns of flank speed at this point after their extended pleasure cruise. If you closed down on them, I don't think he'd get far.

Of course not sure how much the other assets/plans you have would be compromised by that kind of a move. It seems John's only course at that point would be a flank KB run through the Marshalls. With a lot of subs in the way, a few nice CAP traps set, and your CVs out of the way, if he came you'd likely not only get the mini, but compromise the KB before having to engage.

EDIT: Just read your post on this above. If you can run anything important NE and disband the ships without troops on them, then leave a few fast DD/patrols in the port hexes with heavy CAP, he can't port strike without keeping his planes on naval strike as first option in case you come back, but still, Corsairs and Hellcats will hit a port strike hard if they have good radar warning. Anything disbanded is safe.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Mili would be overwhelmed, as would 250 Allied ships. If Death Star moved strongly after Mini KB, creating enough separation, John could then turn his full attention to Mili. That base, with it's 250 fighters, would be overwhelmed by KB's 1100 aircraft supplemented by hundreds of land-based air...and visits by Kongos et al. Death Star is what's keeping John at bay.

It's not certain that would happen, but neither is it certain that Death Star can catch Mini KB. It's hard to catch a TF in the open ocean that begins with a big head start and doesn't want to be caught. To increase my odds to a reasonable percentage, I need to use at least one day of flank speed plus guessing right. If I miscalculate, Death Star is suddenly low on fuel, far from Mili, and aggressive John can pounce.

So I think remaining focused on the task at hand is Job 1. If I do that, John has to come into my nest to attack, which he badly wants to do. And if he doesn't attack, Death Star gets major reinforcements inside a month. The odds won't be growing in his favor.

Mini KB has been using fuel, and there hasn't been anywhere for it to refuel. So it is likely heading for a refueling point. Such a point is unlikely to be within one day's sailing for the Death Star. So chasing the mini KB is a low probability of success operation at this point, and it exposes your other forces to too much risk.

An ambush of the Kongos appears to be wishful thinking as the Japanese shied away from the ambush zone, and it is unlikely they will return since they have less air support than previously.

That leaves the original mission. It is not the game winning home run that a crushing carrier victory would have been. But it is a solid contribution to the foundation you are building for future plans. Keep your eye on the big picture and do what you came for.

[Bearcat2]

Pretty sure that all the JP 28 pt & 19pt tankers can convert to AO.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the heads up on the AOs (and tanker conversion).

[Canoerebel]

8/26/43

Thin Man:This was the opening line of John's email this a.m.: "This was the most boring tense round I’ve watched." It was indeed a quiet turn with no altercations anywhere. I understand from his perspective why it was boring (in comparison to the carnage that we're always on the verge of with immense forces in such proximity). And it's got to be frustrating to the Peanut Gallery for things to just percolate along, the two sides dancing gingerly, both declining to take bold action first. But for me it's an immensely satisfying turn: in the quiet, the Allies are making serious progress on the first two priorities of the mission: (1) supply delivery and (2) retrieving units from overstacked bases. The latter has to be accomplished before I can invade Roi/Kwaj, because core parts of those invasion forces were at Jaluit. This turn, the Allies retrieved half of 138th RCT from Jaluit. Next turn (if all remains quiet), the balance of that RCT and a big combat engineer unit will follow suit. Tomorrow we'll also begin drawing down the extra units at Maloelap. John may pounce or disrupt, but so far so good.

Mini KB turned NW and is 16 hexes ENE of Maleolap (and 17 hexes NE of Death Star). Steroid KB is 18 hexes due west of Mili (and 19 west of Death Star). Kongos are 16 hexes SW of Mili. John's units are too dispersed to allow him efficient concentration, so the threat level is reduced, allowing the Allies freedom to do a few of these important chores.

I need about four days to complete chores. At that point, the Allies have the option of retiring for Pearl or remaining present in the Marshalls and awaiting a chance to proceed with amphibious ops.

[ny59giants]

Did you bring any of the SeaBee Rgts with ya?? With 225 engineers total they can build up a base very quickly and would help with some of your under developed bases here.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/26/43

And it's got to be frustrating to the Peanut Gallery for things to just percolate along, the two sides dancing gingerly, both declining to take bold action first. But for me it's an immensely satisfying turn: in the quiet, the Allies are making serious progress on the first two priorities of the mission: (1) supply delivery and (2) retrieving units from overstacked bases.

I completely understand why you'd be happy. You're accomplishing your goals while John sails around waving the flag and beats his shield. He needs the carnage, you don't. You stuck to your guns and kept the plan in mind. Your window of opportunity to catch his fleet is only getting bigger as time progresses.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Did you bring any of the SeaBee Rgts with ya?? With 225 engineers total they can build up a base very quickly and would help with some of your under developed bases here.

Funny you should ask. Adak Island, which the Allies took at the first of June, went to five forts a day or two back (and this after periodically being shut down by nuclear bombardments off and on through June an July).
Prompted by your question, I first clicked on Adak to see what kind of engineers are there: four construction regiments. (The plan was to use Adak as one of the central landing hubs and to later redistribute to adjacent islands, but the place became too hot for merchant shipping.)

Here's a rundown on the Roller Coaster bases:

1. Tarawa: got a mishmash of engineer units including one EAB (no construction regiments). It has four forts already.
2. Makin: a construction battalion completed three forts and has the airfield 90% to level 1.
3. Jaluit: two CB units, one combat engineer (about to be extracted) and a big USN base force with engineers. I built three forts and then stood down the engineers due to the crisis with overstacking and supply (since abated).
4. Mili: one CB; three forts; has increased the airfield by two levels (to three) and is now working on the port.
5. Ailinglaplap: one CB; three forts.
6. Maloelap: part of a construction regiment; three forts.
7. Wotje: EAB; three forts.
8. Baker: CB; four forts.

Here, too, the Allies unloaded in a hurry and without being able to efficiently attend to optimal distribution, but overall things look pretty good.

[Canoerebel]

Map of Thin Man area of operations for August 26.

[BBfanboy]

Interesting picture, with his major forces riding in a circle around yours - reminds me of those old Western movies where the Indians (can I still use that term in a historic context?) rode in a circle around the wagon train barricade, getting picked off more often than being able to hit the defenders. Maybe this will turn out the same. [:)]

[crsutton]

Yep, if you complete your missions without an engagement then it is an Allied victory. Small one but any delay in fighting you does not work to the Japanese player's advantage.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Interesting picture, with his major forces riding in a circle around yours - reminds me of those old Western movies where the Indians (can I still use that term in a historic context?) rode in a circle around the wagon train barricade, getting picked off more often than being able to hit the defenders. Maybe this will turn out the same. [:)]

Except in Hallelujah trail where it is the Indians hiding in the wagon fort and the US cavalry is riding around.
Its the most hilarious Western ever made.

[Capt. Harlock]

Yep, if you complete your missions without an engagement then it is an Allied victory.

"For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill."

-- Sun Tzu

(Though I admit it makes for a less interesting AAR. [;)])