FIFTY SHADES OF WiTE: SILLYFLOWER V BRIANG

[mktours]

ORIGINAL: chaos45

actually FM Silly very disappointed you are going to let some of the russkies escape into the crimea the fuhrer will be very upset.

I would disagree. With so many Pzs in that area, and the water still frozen in the next turn (Snow!), it looks very likely that Germany will make a breakthrough and wrap up the entire Front in Crimea. Brain G was already toasted there.

[mktours]

Some comment on the whole game:
Brian G certainly not doing a good job, there is a big distance between the performance of the two players. Sillyflower played excellently, but your opening is not good enough, the better way is to postpone the two pockets for one turn, like I did in my game against Saper222, he adopt my strategy when he played the Germany side against me later, you could check to see why it is much better, it would pocket more men and weapon and cost 30000 more armaments to the Soviet side.
Under 1.08, 1:1=2:1 is a must, otherwise it is very difficult to stop the Axis, which is having unlimited Mp of its Pzs. Otherwise by the time of Blizzard, soviet may have nothing to play on. Both Saper222 and me agree with this after we played both sides at the same setting and house rules in 1.08.04. The versions after 1.08.04 made Axis even more powerful regarding Mp and the 80 morale units only need 2 Mp to run in enemy zone.

[charlie0311]

Dear M,

.05 and on have all pushed back on axis logistics. Sov doesn't need +1 but merely to remain out of Pz range for as long as possible. However, I do agree, don't forget I'm nobody, that for the sov player who wants to fight for pockets in 41, early 41 that is, that they will need +1. Later in 41 when the axis is extended and the sov have become stronger then pocket busting is possible without +1.

And, delayed Lvov, to kill even 16th army, is a better open than standard Lvov. Certain adjustments in the North also help to prevent sov escapes into marsh.

Brian's Crimea adventure now looks kind of silly, sorry Brain, but his cause was lost when he chose to fight forward v Sillyflower.

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: mktours

Some comment on the whole game:
Sillyflower played excellently, but your opening is not good enough, the better way is to postpone the two pockets for one turn, like I did in my game against Saper222, he adopt my strategy when he played the Germany side against me later, you could check to see why it is much better, it would pocket more men and weapon and cost 30000 more armaments to the Soviet side.

Thank you for your kind words interesting thoughts. Was your opening under .08? Seems to me that there are 4 downsides to it.

1 it will slow parts of AGS down
2 More importantly, it means that you won't be able to have the FBD that needs to go down to Rumania to do the job of the much-missed FBD 5. This means that the rail conversion out of Rumania will now be 2 turns behind what it used to be and that will be a big disadvantage later in the summer.
3 Some units may escape or be able to disband (eg forts and AT brigades) so you lose 'their' APs which are quite high.
4 Combining this with my opening will result in some panzers being isolated on T1

My points 1 and 4 are are minor ones compared to 2+3, but my current thinking is that the pros and cons pretty much balance out. As I am generally more motivated by deferred reward rather than immediate benefit, I think I will stick to doing the Lvov pocket even if it is the wrong choice.

[Manstein63]

BrianG made a serious mistake in this game, It's a very easy mistake to make as I have done the same thing myself. When playing Monsieur Sillyflower it is important to do the following or you will inevitably face defeat by the summer of 1942. You should always be the Axis Player rather than the Soviet. In all likely hood you will still lose (with the possible exception of Michael T, but we will have to wait for .09 to confirm that) but you will last beyond 1942, unless you really make a pigs ear of it. [:D][:D][:D][:D]
Manstein63

[mktours]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

ORIGINAL: mktours

Some comment on the whole game:
Sillyflower played excellently, but your opening is not good enough, the better way is to postpone the two pockets for one turn, like I did in my game against Saper222, he adopt my strategy when he played the Germany side against me later, you could check to see why it is much better, it would pocket more men and weapon and cost 30000 more armaments to the Soviet side.

Thank you for your kind words interesting thoughts. Was your opening under .08? Seems to me that there are 4 downsides to it.

1 it will slow parts of AGS down
2 More importantly, it means that you won't be able to have the FBD that needs to go down to Rumania to do the job of the much-missed FBD 5. This means that the rail conversion out of Rumania will now be 2 turns behind what it used to be and that will be a big disadvantage later in the summer.
3 Some units may escape or be able to disband (eg forts and AT brigades) so you lose 'their' APs which are quite high.
4 Combining this with my opening will result in some panzers being isolated on T1

My points 1 and 4 are are minor ones compared to 2+3, but my current thinking is that the pros and cons pretty much balance out. As I am generally more motivated by deferred reward rather than immediate benefit, I think I will stick to doing the Lvov pocket even if it is the wrong choice.

I have stated that my opening was done under 1.08.04, you could check it out in my AAR about my game against Saper222.
Link: tm.asp?m=3890124
It isn't difficult to check that opening by playing a H2H by oneself to see the effects I mentioned. But I see you have not motive to do so, that is understandable. So you may have to see its effect when someone play that opening to you in one of your future games. It is your AAR, so I would stop derailing your thread, it is a good game to watch, thanks to sharing it.

[sillyflower]

.04 was a lifetime ago [:)]. Did you have FBD5 in Rumania then?

I don't doubt the benefits you mention of your opening, but it's a balancing exercise.

Last but not least, you are raising interesting issues so you are not doing any highjacking as far as I'm concerned

[RKhan]

When I read mktours AAR some time ago I thought his was the higher risk, higher reward approach. But I can't help feeling that a good Soviet commander can tie the Germans into the Ukraine for quite a while with the mktours opening.

Perhaps one day you can both play it out for the enjoyment of the your fans. [:D]

[sillyflower]

As the blizzard has ended, I thought I would post some stats



The main thing that strikes me is that german losses have been absurdly low, despite Brian's best efforts. Axis losses over the blizzard were under 350K, of which 2/3rds were disabled. R losses almost 900K.

[sillyflower]

orbat



The Wehrmacht increased its strength on the east front by about 280K men, 4K arty pieces and nearly 500 tanks and AFVs during this same period. Our glorious Fuhrer was obviously right to decree that there was no need to put Germany on a proper war footing.

[mktours]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

.04 was a lifetime ago [:)]. Did you have FBD5 in Rumania then?

I don't doubt the benefits you mention of your opening, but it's a balancing exercise.

Last but not least, you are raising interesting issues so you are not doing any highjacking as far as I'm concerned

I don't think 1.08.04 is too far away from now. Indeed, I played 1.08.04 because someone had kindly edited the change log, so people could catch the new changes until 1.08.04 easily. I didn't bother to read the huge change logs of the later patches myself after playing 2 big games in 1.08.04, I won both games so I am not complaining as a loser, but the game have greatly sway towards Axis side because of two feature: 1st, the fuel which a PzD could take change from 124% to 200%; 2nd, the new HQ build up rule is a big Gift to Germany side in 1941, compare with the old rule.
I asked the patch team 2-3 time why the 124% ceiling have been removed? no answer. Many people told them the new HQ build up rule is too powerful, they said those people got it wrong. So why should I trust them in the new patches? With Pelton being the heavy weight tester in the team, I could foresee the game would only change in one direction.
The new change that the 80 morale units only need 2 Mp to run in enemy zone is a even bigger gift, could anyone tell me why? When there are still many players played the game, many protested that the Germany are moving too fast, now they introduce this new feature which make Axis could move even faster, that is ridiculous, I wonder how many people are still playing the game now.
I hope the product support of Wite2.0 would not do the same. A better solution is to separate Modding by the part time of 2-3 people from patching.

[mktours]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

As the blizzard has ended, I thought I would post some stats



The main thing that strikes me is that german losses have been absurdly low, despite Brian's best efforts. Axis losses over the blizzard were under 350K, of which 2/3rds were disabled. R losses almost 900K.

You have successfully changed History! Only 330000 men lost in conquering Russia is a remarkable achievement in All Time History. [;)]

[EwaldvonKleist]

Thx for OOB, very interesting.
To compare situation with history:
I have sufficient knowledge about EF, but would never call myself an expert. However,
according To Glantz, House, When Titans Clashed, 2015:
7. March 1942: 2.5mio. Germans, 450k Finns, 55k Roms, 58kItalians, 17k Spains and 16k Slovaks.

I dont understand why axis allies numbers are so super low in this book, around factor 10 smaller for Rumanians. But given that german numbers are quite correct (i am aware of the problem that there are different ways to count man) you are 1 Mio or around 1.5 times better than historical Wehrmacht.
Comparing Soviet OOB with glantz ones is pointless as the numbers are strange (4.7 mio. on front but 9.3 mio. total???). Has anyone an explanation for those huge differences or knows a site/book with well researched tank/gun/plane strength information?
What is very easy to compare is the ground taken, and here your situation is superior, much better in north and moscow and rostov sector, on par in the voronezh area and on the crimea, things will soon change? So compared with the history, you have superior starting positions and your case blue should become a crushing success.
Game question: You outnumber Soviets in tanks. Having superior production, they should have a bit more than germans, even after the bad summer. Is there a good reason to keep tanks in pool 1942? Truck shortages, defensive army deployment, tank units not yet rested etc?
Sry if this was to off topic, just complain and i will stop history and numbers talk (i like numbers!)
Good luck for 1942

Edit: Another thing i learned: Number with a lot of 0 are considered as links, so i had to abbreviate them)

[sillyflower]

No complaints at all [:)] I also like numbers as you may have gathered from the AARNumbers are always difficult to compare, especially when it is not always clear exactly what is being counted. For example, Glanz's 2 Russian numbers could be for the western front or combat/combat ready troops on the western front and total soviet strength.

The wehrmacht strength figures for AFVs is even more startling. From memory, Germans only had about 500 panzers/stugs etc on the whole eastern front at that time. Will check the number later.

Re Russian tanks in game - there are only so many tank brigades a player can use, and later trucks are a limiting factor.

[Michael T]

I asked the patch team 2-3 time why the 124% ceiling have been removed? no answer

Well it's simple. Previously the HQ getting the buildup would get extra fuel (proportional to the number of units it had attached) so that in the following turn the fuel could be allocated to the Panzers. Effectively there is no difference now. HQBU has always been about giving the Panzers two turns of fuel. Nothing has changed in this respect. The only difference is that now the extra fuel resides in the unit rather than the HQ.

Players have lots of options now to balance the game how they see fit, plus house rules. The players can negotiate any rules the would like before the game starts.

The bottom line is 2by3 stopped support with the last patch of 1.07

IMO the game is better now than then.

[Michael T]

Also if players prefer the latest 2by3 version, it is available. They can ignore 1.08 and beyond.

[Michael T]

On the subject of whether to close the Minsk and Lvov pockets or not on T1;

I have crunched the numbers (thru tests) and weighed the pro's and con's. Conclusion, considering the number of units you have to send south for this opening IMO better things could be done. And it would not involve leaving the pockets open.

[sillyflower]

Thoughts on T37 and other ramblings.

Losses in turn 4.2K to 7k russians. Air 29 to 61 and 1 tk x and 1 RVGK regt died.

Brian's blizzard O was even weaker than I expected, but also more aggressive too until his losses became unsustainable. I will not repeat my comments on the effects of the current beta. Keeping Rostov was my key objective and my railhead is also there now. Fall Blau here we come.

My plans for the snow turn are to:

1 fix him in place in the north and centre. The cities of Kalinin and Torzok NE of Moscow are vulnerable and I only need about 20 more VPs so he can't risk losing them. I'm close to Tula too. However, the AAR sub-forum is littered with the wrecks of German armies which tried to attack in too many places in '42 instead of forming the panzerblob and my priority is firmly the south.

2 Clear out the Crimea using most of 1 Pz Army and the parts of 18th Army that can get down there.

3 Clear out the Donets bend with 17th Army (the brown one) and 1 corps form 1 PzA to protect my flank, or at least get close to it so I can do early in the summer so he has to retreat back over the major river with the losses that will entail.

4 Break out from Rostov - ideally getting to Tikhoresk and Salsk and to hold that area in the mud so the FBDs can convert up to those towns. This will give a great jumping off point to take out the Caucasus and Stalingrad in the summer and that gets me my win. For this I need Guderian's 2 Pz Army and 11th army. The slight snag is that I have only 1 corps from 2 Pz A in the Stalino area and 11 Army needs the decent reinforcement infantry divs sitting on the west edge of the map. Further, I don't know how strong Brian is down there. He clearly put more into the Crimea than I expected but luckily they all seemed to have charged out without doing much of the way of digging in at the 3 entrances to the Crimea. It will therefore be a weak thrust as I have had to prioritise reinforcing the Crimean thrust. That said, his army is weak and the bulk of his forces seem to be in the centre and north. Only 1 way to find out as I've avoided doing any recce down there for an obvious reason. I think it's called laziness.

[shermanny]

Oh I think you played summer 1941 beautifully. All I meant was that now that you're into 808, the game engine is going to be so good to you that you won't need any more virtuosity.
If another edition comes out in time for summer, it might be interesting, and even with the edge I see 808 providing, there's still room for artistry and deft winning. But I don't think it'll be that much
of a challenge unless 809 arrives in time and makes some adjustments.

[shermanny]

As to quitting long before 260, I finished a game not too long ago playing Soviets where my opponent took Leningrad and Moscow the first year, Moscow falling during snow turns. But not Kharkov.

In the summer of 42 he went on to take Yaroslavl and Ivanovo, Kharkov and Voronezh, Dnep and Zap, and even Arzamas. It was down to the wire, with Gorky holding in the suburbs, Tambov ditto, and Stalino endangered. If any one of those had fallen it would have been his victory. At long last, toward the end of 42, Soviet morale got a boost from the game engine and a new edition of the game made it possible for the Soviets to stay in some sort of supply.

The flip side of the game was that since we'd been playing mild winter, my Soviets had quite a few guards units, including 64 guards rifle corps. A counteroffensive in 43 drove from SW toward NE, staging out of Stalino and running parallel to the general trend of the rivers. At that point, it was just a question of whether the Soviets would win and if so how soon.