Entry chits; Comparison between MWif and WiFFE

[Xtopher]

I read that US Entry Chits are now infinite in number. Does this work well? How much of a difference, if any, are players experiencing with the breaking of neutrality pacts or US DOW?

Is the way it's handled that the probability of drawing a specific chit value is always the same regardless of how many have previously been drawn? For example, every time a 0 is pulled, does P(0) remain the same or does it change?

Thanks in advance!
Chris

[AlbertN]

I had only a case of pure unluck with 3 * 5 chits and many 4 chits pulled.
USA geared up 2nd time in Sept / Oct 40, got in war with Euro-Axis in Nov / Dec 40 (And Pearl Harbour option), and vs Japan in Jan / Dec '41.
And embargoed' Japan in Jul / Aug '40. 1st gear up was May / Jun 40.

[paulderynck]

See this thread:

tm.asp?m=4048934

It would have been a problem with an infinite distribution to have the same odds of drawing specific value chits as in the boardgame. An infinite distribution has much higher standard deviation as well as higher averages, so the MWIF "odds" were selected on the basis of running literally millions of simulated games with both potential MWIF distributions compared with results for the finite distribution in the boardgame. The resulting odds for the selected infinite distribution resulted in a close match in terms of averages but still has a higher standard deviation. Reducing the odds for the outlier chits did reduce the standard deviation but it is still greater than a finite distribution.

The odds of drawing specific values change from year to year just like in the boardgame.

Like any other random draw situation there's likely to be an experience opposite from the one Cohen relates above. And many other experiences that lie between those two.

[quiritus]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck
Like any other random draw situation there's likely to be an experience opposite from the one Cohen relates above. And many other experiences that lie between those two.

present: J/F 42 i keep 1 "4" for poland losed thanks to CW/FR DOW. after 24 chit for usa pools to J/F 42: 22 "1" 2 "0".

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: quiritus

ORIGINAL: paulderynck
Like any other random draw situation there's likely to be an experience opposite from the one Cohen relates above. And many other experiences that lie between those two.

present: J/F 42 i keep 1 "4" for poland losed thanks to CW/FR DOW. after 24 chit for usa pools to J/F 42: 22 "1" 2 "0".

From the code:

case Year of
1939: // Average = 7040/3017 = 2.333444
begin
case RollX(MessStr, 0, TEntryChitRoll.HighRoll, nil, nil,
TEntryChitRoll.RollRange) of
0..49: Result := 0; // 50

50..959: Result := 1; // 910

960..1710: Result := 2; // 751 2 or less = 1711/3017 = 56.7%

1711..2346: Result := 3; // 636

2347..2976: Result := 4; // 630

else Result := 5; // 40
end;
end;

1940: // Average = 653/365 = 1.789041
begin
case RollX(MessStr, 0, TEntryChitRoll.HighRoll, nil, nil,
TEntryChitRoll.RollRange) of
0..9: Result := 0; // 10

10..200: Result := 1; // 191

201..267: Result := 2; // 67 2 or less = 268/365 = 73%

268..329: Result := 3; // 62

330..362: Result := 4; // 33

else Result := 5; // 2
end;
end;

1941: // Average = 2390/920 = 2.597826
begin
case RollX(MessStr, 0, TEntryChitRoll.HighRoll, nil, nil,
TEntryChitRoll.RollRange) of
0..2: Result := 0; // 3

3..207: Result := 1; // 205

208..453: Result := 2; // 246 2 or less = 454/920 = 49%

454..679: Result := 3; // 226

680..869: Result := 4; // 190

870..914: Result := 5; // 45

else Result := 6; // 5
end;
end;