The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[DW]

Weeee I finally made it through.

You poor bastard...

Now, you'll have to wait for Canoe to post, like the rest of us.

I hope you enjoy sitting on pins and needles.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

ORIGINAL: DW

Weeee I finally made it through.

You poor bastard...

Now, you'll have to wait for Canoe to post, like the rest of us.

I hope you enjoy sitting on pins and needles.

Haha yes I actually hoped it will be revealed in the last few pages. On the other side I enjoyed the buildup of tension and I am really curious now.

[Wuffer]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: desicat

As someone who has played both sides I can tell you that the farther the Japanese go in 42-43 the better it is for the Allies, regardless of scenario. Even this one doesn't give help to the economy, and Japan stops fighting when supply and fuel run out. I've been run out of supply and fuel after doing some of the things you'e talking about in 42, and in spite of all of the flash and bang of these exciting early campaigns, it's not the best strategy for the IJ to last as a competitive force late.

India, OZ, the forays into Alaska and strategically bombing the West Coast, those are all about trying for AV. That's fine, and it's fun, but it is not a poor strategy to keep a solid defensible and historical perimeter. Check with Pax Mondo, Mike Solli and a number of other players who pay attention to the economic side of things. It's a game in itself. More territory and farther flung battles don't help it stay healthy.

I agree with this, and IF John had planned his reduced perimeter you would be spot on. Unfortunately John did not plan his current perimeter, it was fashioned by reaction and necessity. He also has suffered oil production loss and burned his fuel resources at a higher than normal rate - he is in big trouble.


When he reacts to the Circus invasion(s) he will further increase his fuel burn rate, still won't have time to upgrade or rest his surface fleet, and will once again be forced to commit his land forces piecemeal and with little prep.

There is an HR on strat bombing oil/fuel in this game as I understand it. He doesn't have to worry about places like Magwe (300 oil) that the Japanese routinely lose in late 42 to a cloud of 500 pounders. That "pays" for Medan right there, and if he fixes Medan, that pays for steaming the KB around for a year.

I'm not saying John plays a strategic game as Japan, but that's kind of the beauty of this game. He's been forced to play smarter than usual!! [:D]

[Canoerebel]

Medan's fuel production and refinery remain trashed. No repair at all.

But we've been through this in here before. Trying to starve Japan is an iffy prospect. In the end it seems like this game really turns on the navy. Destroy Japan's navy and you either destroy it's ability to fight or its will to fight.

[DW]

On the other side I enjoyed the buildup of tension and I am really curious now.

Join the club.

Before this AAR restarted, I was checking the forum maybe a couple of times a week.

Now...

A dozen times a day.

Canoerebel!!! You did this to me!!!

[BBfanboy]

Hey CR - did you notice you have a 3:1 VP ratio in AAR posts? [:D]

[Canoerebel]

5/26/43

Battle of Sumatra: Fairly quiet day with ineffective bombing, no bombardments, no sign of KB, and no advances or attacks by Japanese troops. John is very close to wrapping things up here. I think he will. But it was a close thing. A week or so earlier and I might've been able to salvage things. Because John's waking up to find there's a new threat in a theater far, far away.

Operation Circus: John probably isn't quite positive what's going on yet. He's suddenly grown extraordinarily quiet in his emails (he's effusively cordial or boatsful when things are going good, curt and abrupt when they aren't or when he's discovered something he didn't expect). He's found lots of TFs in NoPac. But not enough information (I think) to make conclusive calls yet. But he recognizes the massive, overwhelming holes he's left in his defenses here. While consumed by Sumatra, he largely ignored NoPac. He has good defenses in the Aleutians, but Hokkaido is completely, shockingly open. He's not sure I'm coming that way - perhaps he even hopes I will so that he can close on me with a Sumatra II campaign, but he knows he's got to shift his men and air and fleets to meet a new threat far away.

And he probably strongly suspects that a massive Allied fleet lies between his main body of armed forces and where he needs them.

And that was the goal of Circus: To make John pay, if possible, for sending everything he had to one corner of the map for month upon month upon month.

Circus is not a perfect Operation. Nor is it guaranteed success. There will be losses. But over the past four months, the Allies have shifted basically their entire weight from one side of the world to another, while (I think) the entire weight of the Japanese world remains in the DEI.

Much more to come later. The situation is fluid. It's already evolved from what I thought and hoped it might be. But it's going to be fun. The lead amphibs are 22 hexes from the beaches.

[Canoerebel]

SigInt shows the extent of John's alarm. In recent days he's begun shifting troops to the Marianas. Today there was more - 4th Div., long posted at Soerabaja, bound for Saipan. That's two divisions heading to the Marianas in the past few days.

John has done a good job of containing and almost exterminating the Allied invasion of Sumatra. But to do so he brought everything he had to bear for a long, long, long time. So long that the Allies had time to shift focus. I wish I could have done it sooner (a week or two would have meant a great deal), but I'm more amazed that Sabang held long enough to still aid the Allied cause.

[JeffroK]

So 4 days???

Fingers crossed!!!!

[Grfin Zeppelin]

BANZ...uhm...ah...well.... HOOYAH!

[Canoerebel]

A word of apology about OpSec and misinformation etc.

Most of you guys (especially longtime comrades like crusutton, obvert, and many others) have long suspected or known that I filled Operation Circus with misleading information for OpSect reasons (more about that in a later post, but I should state clearly immediately that I wasn't concerned about intentional breaches of security).

Most of you have been through this kind of thing before. Hopefully most of you like it as part and parcel of a very public game and enjoy the whole ride. But if any of you feel misled or cheated, I owe you apologies. I can only say that I have discussed this at length with a thread brother and will give it careful thought before I do it again.

I've been employing lawyer-like parsing of words, willing to tell the truth but not necessarily the whole truth...and who sometimes finds himself veering far from the truth in doing so. Again, I apologize.

From the outset, I said (truthfully) that Operation Circus would "originate from SWPac." What I meant by that was very narrow. The first gleanings of Circus came in the dark days of January '43 when the Allied Expeditionary Army was nearly cut off and destroyed in Burma. It was then that I decided to shift focus to NoPac, beginning with 6th, 7th, and 9th Australian Divisions. Those three would exit SEAC (two of them after extraordinarily long marches through the jungle) and move to West Coast via the Cape Town and the Canal Zone. Hence, Circus would "Originate from SWPac," but only in that narrow sense.

At first I "assumed" that Circus could be ready by late summer or autumn. I never had the slightest notion it could work in tandem with Sumatra. But by March, as John continued to dally and it became clear Sabang would hold out into May, I wanted to explore the possibility of doing everything I could to move as early as I could just in case the opportunity should still be there.

It's been a long process of planning and shifting and prepping and moving and feints and whatever. Already there have been disappointments and changes. But Circus is a strong counterpunch that should have a window to work without threat of enemy carriers for a week or so (unless John outthought me and had Half KB posted in the Home Islands). He's got big airfields and he has Air HQ, so there is danger, but its an acceptable level of danger and the rewards are commensurate.

So, Lady and Gents, I present to you Circus (starting with the next turn - probably from John's perspective first, of course).

[JeffroK]

I hope you have secured (or will secure) your LOC

[Canoerebel]

Which LOC?

[Canoerebel]

Jeff, if you're thinking "Circus is heading to Hokkaido, I hope you've secured your LOC..." I can say I planned for that. Circus is carrying everything including the kitchen sink, something like 650k supply, an air force, and more than 20 big AA units to make each base a bear to hit by air.

But the question is: Is Hokkaido the objective?

Stay tuned. I'll speak to that more after the next turn.

[Anachro]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the objective is...Honshu.

[Canoerebel]

Hokkaido would be the best objective since it's an island and since it's almost entirely vacant. 7th Div. is at Attu Island. The largest unit on Hokkaido (according to my intel) is a tank regiment. Had I another month to work with, Hokkaido would've been the obvious and overwhelming choice. By then I'd have been able to cobble together 10 divisions, 750k supply, 25 AA units (a key, in my opinion), and roughly 20 carriers.

But I didn't have another month due to Sumatra. You'll recall some posts a few weeks back (witpqs comes to mind) that it's better to move now with less than later with more. I agreed, but the best I could do was cobble together roughly 6 divisions, 650k supply, 22 AA units, and seven fleet carriers (plus about seven CVE). In my opinion, this is enough to take and hold Hokkaido for a long time. To take the high ground and then let the enemy attack - his air against my AA, his ships against a strong Allied fleet (this time equal to the Kaigun), and him with more men, but me with the island and good terrain and rail networks to reinforce. It would be a tough battle, both sides would lose a lot, the Allies would probably ultimately lose, but the Kaigun (the real focus) would definitely be hit hard.

So the ships began leaving San Fran and Seattle 10 days or more back. Steaming quietly west with no detection or opposition. Even the carriers had strike aircraft shut down (to avoid attacks on picket ships) and fighters set at 20% CAP (primarily because the carriers left much later and thus had the buffer of all the amphibs ahead clearing the pathway). The question was how close the Circus fleets could get to Hokkaido before raising the alarm.

And that's where we are at the moment.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the Strat Map view of Operation Circus TFs two turns back. (I planned to change the name from Circus to Carnival since it was NoPac rather than SWPac, but on second thought Circus has been used so long it's better to stick with it.)

[Mike McCreery]

Such balls!!!

I knew there was a reason I liked reading your AAR's ;]

[desicat]

Hopefully this doesn't turn into a Greyjoy repeat where the shear number of A/C involved "break" the game.

I hope you have a resupply/reinforce TF ready to run into Sabang just in case John drops his guard when reacting to Carnival.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: desicat

Hopefully this doesn't turn into a Greyjoy repeat where the shear number of A/C involved "break" the game.

I hope you have a resupply/reinforce TF ready to run into Sabang just in case John drops his guard when reacting to Carnival.

The key to Sabang is BBs. If John pulls them (he won't, but if he did) then I could save Sabang. Only BBs can close the airfield. If the airfield isn't closed, I can post fighters there, my supply is safe until I can get more in, etc.

If I could've timed Circus a month later, coming with 10 divisions and 20 carriers, John would've had no choice but to pull his BBs from Sumatra. Sumatra is important, but nothing like Hokkaido. But I just couldn't squeeze out that extra month. As it is, I think John will keep some of his assets in Sumatra and finish that campaign within two or three weeks. But I am prepared to act if there's a reasonable window.