Question on US dud torpedoes

[Jorge_Stanbury]

I am playing a PBEM game as Allied

we started in September 2014, we used the latest patch available back then
we are playing DaBabes

We updated the game to the latest patch (Feb 2016), by mere coincidence, on the last days on December 1942.
Also, on December 1942, there is an radar upgrade

Enter new year, and my submarines became much better; not just 20% more vs. 1942.. Like really better, from barely a few hits per month, to sinking almost one per day

Question is, would this be just due to dud rate reduced by 20%? or Dec 42 radar upgrade?
or is it also that in recent game patches submarines have become better?

[Lecivius]

Radar upgrade = more shots

Question is, are you getting multiple positive hits per target?

[Jorge_Stanbury]

definitively more shots,
and a lot less "missed"

typical sub encounter in 1942 ended in "miss", so not even "hit no explosion", just plain miss

now it is not more than one, maybe two positive hits, but I am getting at least one hit every turn

but it feels day vs night vs. 1942

[Lecivius]

I get a lot more single hits. I do not get a lot of multiple explosive hits. Or any, for that matter. IMHO, I don't think there is an issue.


But in all honesty, I am an AFB, I may be looking through rose colored glasses.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Not an issue at all [:D]
just curiosity,

I strongly suspect that the 20% less dud number we get in 43 is just a big generalization, and that there are a lot more factors that come into place behind covers, somehow similar to "assault value" or "AA value" numbers meaning very little

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Not an issue at all [:D]
just curiosity,

I strongly suspect that the 20% less dud number we get in 43 is just a big generalization, and that there are a lot more factors that come into place behind covers, somehow similar to "assault value" or "AA value" numbers meaning very little

A nit. It's not 20 percent less, it's 20 points.

[BBfanboy]

Every attack you subs carry out, and every time they are depth charged they gain experience. That alone will improve the accuracy of the shots.'
There are several improvements to the dud rate in 1943. I forget the months and the degree of improvement but IIRC by October you are at the normal rate of 80% good torps/ 20% duds.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

From 80% duds to 60% in January 43
more improvements later

I think the upgrade (to PPI radar) improves the chance of contacts/ getting the shots, and then the less dud rates are improving the chances of at least one torpedo hitting the target.
6 shots at 40% chance is better than 6 shots at 20% chance

[Revthought]

Do you think you can loan me some of those torpedoes for our game.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

stop reading and finish the turn

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

From 80% duds to 60% in January 43
more improvements later

I think the upgrade (to PPI radar) improves the chance of contacts/ getting the shots, and then the less dud rates are improving the chances of at least one torpedo hitting the target.
6 shots at 40% chance is better than 6 shots at 20% chance

The dud rate has nothing to do with the torpedo hitting the target, only torpedoes that hit can explode/function and that is what the dud rate refers to.

[John B.]

I've only taken three games into 1943 as teh allies but each time the radar upgrade makes Jan/Feb. 1943 seem like the happy times. It's always trailed off a bit after that but there are a lot more (unquantifiable) hits. I think that next torpedo upgrade is in September 1943 although I just had a dud vs. an AKL and a very large TK on the same turn in 9/43 so we can't be sure.

[Revthought]

I will get to it. Wife is out of town for work and I'm trying really hard to get myself home with the boy without her. I haven't been successful quite yet.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

lol, no worries, don't rush it

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

From 80% duds to 60% in January 43
more improvements later

No. Again, read the manual. It's points, not percent.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

The manual talks in percent and the editor (scenario 1) shows dud numbers at 10 for most non-US torpedoes, 50 for Mark15, 80 for Mark14

How I read that number is as a rate, 10 meaning 10/100 dud rate. 80/100 dud rate, and so on.

With Reliable USN torpedoes switch on, their dud rate should be 10% or a dud rate of 10


2.4.7 RELIABLE USN TORPEDOES
This switch controls whether torpedoes will have dud rates of greater than 10%. If selected,
then the historical problems with US Navy torpedoes are considered to have been immediately
resolved, and the high dud rates for these weapons in the early part of the war do not occur,
so the dud rates reductions specified in section 6.4.2.1 are applied at the start of the scenario,
rather than the dates specified.

6.4.2.1 NOTE ON TORPEDO DUDS
In January 1943, all torpedoes with a dud rate of greater than 49 have their dud rates reduced
by 20. In September 1943, all torpedoes with an adjusted dud rate greater than 20 have their
dud rates lowered to 10. Allied torpedoes were notoriously inefficient in the early stages of the
Pacific War, and this rule reflects their slow but steady improvement over the years.
Note: if the Realism option “Reliable USN Torpedoes” (see
section 2.4.7) is selected, this rule does not apply – no
torpedoes will have dud rates higher than 10%

[US87891]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
No. Again, read the manual. It's points, not percent.

Yes.
Forget the manual text, its points, not percent. Points get multiplied and divided and oterwise adjusted before they get to the first 'random' compare. If you think these numbers are some kind of reproduceable statistical propability, then you are going to be screwed.

Matt

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

The manual talks in percent and the editor (scenario 1) shows dud numbers at 10 for most non-US torpedoes, 50 for Mark15, 80 for Mark14

How I read that number is as a rate, 10 meaning 10/100 dud rate. 80/100 dud rate, and so on.

With Reliable USN torpedoes switch on, their dud rate should be 10% or a dud rate of 10

The dud section of the manual talks of points, not percent. 20% of 80 is 16, not 20.

I have no idea what math is in the algorithm. I'm just saying what the manual says.

Edit: it's also an issue for the MK 13. Beginning dud rate only 50.