With sustained winds >200MPH, this makes her amongst the very largest ever recorded. The largest to come ashore in North America in recorded history. She'll come ashore between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico (Pacific coast).
Storm surge may be 30'. Combined with 12-20" of rain on those steep hillsides behind Manzanillo and this may literally sweep away that town. [:(]
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane ... xico-coast
OT: Hurricane Patricia CAT 5
Moderators: wdolson, MOD_War-in-the-Pacific-Admirals-Edition
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Chickenboy
- Posts: 24520
- Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2002 11:30 pm
- Location: San Antonio, TX
RE: OT: Hurricane Patricia CAT 5
They need to get Yanet on the case. If the luvveerrrlllyyyy Ms Garcia is doing the weather, it can't be bad can it?
But in all seriousness - hope this is not as bad as it sounds
But in all seriousness - hope this is not as bad as it sounds
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Now Maitland, now's your time!
Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
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Canoerebel
- Posts: 21099
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2002 11:21 pm
- Location: Northwestern Georgia, USA
- Contact:
RE: OT: Hurricane Patricia CAT 5
Huge hurricane, but a few items of helpful news. Latest NWS advisory indicates some weakening. Too, the extent of Category 5 winds is just 15 miles in diameter. See highlighted portions of advistory below. Gonna be a killer storm, with surge, rainfall, and flooding a major problem, but perhaps not quite as atrocious as forecast even earlier today.
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 232103
TCDEP5
HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changed
little in intensity through about 1800 UTC. The aircraft measured
192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall,
with a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave radiometer. The central pressure estimated from an eye
dropsonde was 879 mb. Since that time, the eye has become
cloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of an
outer wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and an
increasing central pressure. All of these indicate that the
hurricane is weakening. The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt,
and this could be generous. Patricia is expected to remain a
Category 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a few
hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of
Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly
weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36
hours, if not sooner.
Patricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion
of 015/12. The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between a
mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over
northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motion
toward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone's
life. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the
previous track based on the initial position and motion. It lies
near the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little to
the left of the center after that time.
The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be
non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane during the next few hours.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area and
hurricane conditions are about to occur. Residents in low-lying
areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate
immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall.
2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.
3. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that at this time, the
Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the
center - about 15 miles across.
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 232103
TCDEP5
HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changed
little in intensity through about 1800 UTC. The aircraft measured
192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall,
with a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave radiometer. The central pressure estimated from an eye
dropsonde was 879 mb. Since that time, the eye has become
cloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of an
outer wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and an
increasing central pressure. All of these indicate that the
hurricane is weakening. The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt,
and this could be generous. Patricia is expected to remain a
Category 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a few
hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of
Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly
weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36
hours, if not sooner.
Patricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion
of 015/12. The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between a
mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over
northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motion
toward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone's
life. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the
previous track based on the initial position and motion. It lies
near the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little to
the left of the center after that time.
The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be
non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw
significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could
result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to
statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for
details.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane during the next few hours.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area and
hurricane conditions are about to occur. Residents in low-lying
areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate
immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall.
2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.
3. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that at this time, the
Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the
center - about 15 miles across.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
RE: OT: Hurricane Patricia CAT 5
Wonder how much system damage this would inflict on a WWII fleet?
RE: OT: Hurricane Patricia CAT 5
None because they would be nowhere near it [:)]
Even back then they still had a good idea on when really bad weather would hit. Of course sometimes they misjudged how bad it could be. [:(]
Even back then they still had a good idea on when really bad weather would hit. Of course sometimes they misjudged how bad it could be. [:(]
RE: OT: Hurricane Patricia CAT 5
Excepting Admiral Halsey...ORIGINAL: Numdydar
None because they would be nowhere near it [:)]
Even back then they still had a good idea on when really bad weather would hit. Of course sometimes they misjudged how bad it could be. [:(]
RE: OT: Hurricane Patricia CAT 5
Halsey did sail into two big typhoons. In one of them some destroyers sank and the Hornet had a portion of her flight deck collapse.
Hurricanes in the eastern Pacific behave differently than other parts of the world. The water in the eastern Pacific is very deep and tends to be very cold. It's only the unusually strong El Nino that is driving the eastern Pacific hurricane season this year. Every year the coast of Mexico generates a number of hurricanes, but most wander out into the Pacific and die. If they do go north they fizzle pretty quickly. When I was a kid in Los Angeles we had a couple of these fizzled hurricanes get to LA, but all it did was make things more humid for a few days. We didn't even get any rain. In the 18 years I lived there I don't recall ever seeing rain between May and September. This humidity does drive "monsoon season" in Arizona and New Mexico, the storms get some moisture squeezed out of them when they hit the mountains.
This year the water has been warm enough that one of these ex-hurricanes caused rain in Southern California in the middle of summer. Something I had never heard happening before.
It does sound like Patricia is going to nail Mexico. I believe this is the first hurricane stronger than a Car 2 to make landfall in North America since 2005. The longest strong hurricane drought on record.
Bill
Hurricanes in the eastern Pacific behave differently than other parts of the world. The water in the eastern Pacific is very deep and tends to be very cold. It's only the unusually strong El Nino that is driving the eastern Pacific hurricane season this year. Every year the coast of Mexico generates a number of hurricanes, but most wander out into the Pacific and die. If they do go north they fizzle pretty quickly. When I was a kid in Los Angeles we had a couple of these fizzled hurricanes get to LA, but all it did was make things more humid for a few days. We didn't even get any rain. In the 18 years I lived there I don't recall ever seeing rain between May and September. This humidity does drive "monsoon season" in Arizona and New Mexico, the storms get some moisture squeezed out of them when they hit the mountains.
This year the water has been warm enough that one of these ex-hurricanes caused rain in Southern California in the middle of summer. Something I had never heard happening before.
It does sound like Patricia is going to nail Mexico. I believe this is the first hurricane stronger than a Car 2 to make landfall in North America since 2005. The longest strong hurricane drought on record.
Bill
WitP AE - Test team lead, programmer
RE: OT: Hurricane Patricia CAT 5
ORIGINAL: Mundy
How quickly will it weaken, crossing over Mexico?
As soon as the eye reaches landfall, the storm starts to degrade very quickly. The storm is also going up into the mountains that will continue to degrade it. They predict it's strong enough to stay a storm after crossing the mountains and continue on to Texas, but it won't be an organized storm, just a very wet tropical storm. Texas might get a few inches, which will cause flooding, but it won't have anywhere near the force of a hurricane.
Bill
WitP AE - Test team lead, programmer
RE: OT: Hurricane Patricia CAT 5
I am living in Torreon and it has been raining all morning (woke up at 5). It has now stopped (9:30) but still very overcast - which is quite unusual for our neck of the woods. Mother Nature is amazing.
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LST Express
- Posts: 572
- Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:38 am
- Location: Texas
RE: OT: Hurricane Patricia CAT 5
Getting a lot of rain in central Texas, amounts depend on where you are and who you talk to.
RE: OT: Hurricane Patricia CAT 5
warspite1ORIGINAL: LST Express
Getting a lot of rain in central Texas, amounts depend on where you are and who you talk to.
Yeah and I wish it would stop - its putting the Grand Prix in doubt....[:(]
Now Maitland, now's your time!
Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
RE: OT: Hurricane Patricia CAT 5
The remnants of Patricia are still over Mexico, it hasn't reached Texas yet. What you're getting in Texas is a regular storm from the Gulf of Mexico. When Patricia gets there it will have lost most of it's winds, but it will add to the deluge Texas is already getting. It looks like Houston is getting the worst of these storms, but the whole Texas coast is expecting a lot of rain.
Bill
Bill
WitP AE - Test team lead, programmer