Crashing OOB during mud turns early 43

[Peltonx]

Turn 95

Stavka OOB: 7,850,000 +95,000
GHC OOB: 3,980,000 -13,000

Stavka Loses: 7,874,000
GHC Loses: 2,460,000

Turn 96

Stavka OOB: 7,891,000 +41,000
GHC OOB: 3,964,000 -16,000

Stavka Loses: 7,874,000 +73,000
GHC Loses: 2,489,000 +29,000



There were only 12 battles and the front was mud and OOB for the 2nd turn dropped 13,000 men,
last turn also was 3 zones mud and less then 10 battles.

What is going to happen during clear weather, do the math.

Most of the Russian losses are from attrition so during clear weather they should be able to attack at least 85 times and keep
a static OOB as we know from my other threads the combat ratio is simply silly to be nice.

The German OOB will start crashing 30 to 45,000 per turn and the lose ratio will be closer to 1.5 to 1 as with 1.05 and the same crashing OOB in 43.

Tring to control the game with losses if possible, but only if the lose ratio is historical.

This means that Russian OOB can not be growing even when losing close to 50% of battles.

with 2x the OOB and combat losses 1.5 to 1 or less per battle - the attrition a Russian player can spam attack
and be completely disorganized as I posted in another thread.

tm.asp?m=3949125

Smart play is not required just blob attack.

[Peltonx]

loses

[Peltonx]

This is really not that hard to figure out just basic math

[chaos45]

Losses- 73k to 30k = almost a 2.5:1 exchange rate in total for the turn when attrition and combat is counted- U cant ignore attrition in total loss calculations I lose more men to attrition than combat almost every single turn....out of that 73k like 60k was attrition.

Also that turn I only did 12 really good attacks due to the weather...so most of the attacks had massive amounts of airsupport...I have almost 15,000 planes probably 12,000 of them are bombers or fighters on bombing missions now....so.....I know 2-3 of the battles you were pre-bombed by over 500 bombers each even with the system massively reducing the amount of bombers launched.

Also out of 12 battles that turn I think I only lost 2....so thats 80%+ win rate...not a single attack was attritional in nature those were all well planned and supported assaults.

As to your OOB dropping, its because your Army is replacing losses you took over the winter...I was inflicting 30-60k Losses on your Army per turn almost all winter long, and you went into winter with no manpower surplus due to how heavily I counterattacked your offensive all summer long.

You losses this turn 50% of them were from the encirclement battle...mainly due to routs and zoc'd retreat...you had 7 infantry divisions in a horrible position virtually surrounded By soviet tank, mech, and guard cav corp supported by divisional artillery units not dug in trying to retreat across the open...even in mud those battles should be massacres for the Germans and they were. Those poor dudes were bombed by 4 entire fronts air forces and 2 of those fronts have the strongest best air force units in the red army...then attacked by some of the best units in the Soviet army supported by at least 2 artillery/rocket artillery divisions and you had no retreat space for any of them that wasnt through Zocs. The realistic and expected massacre of those 7 divisions happened...think like almost 10k of your losses was from those 7 divisions alone. Also those divisions had very little ammo and very little supply while my Corps are right next to repaired rail lines with HQs in close support so my units were supplied and yours almost out of supplies....so your men really didnt have much ammo left to shoot back I bet.

The battles at leningrad...well your men are again being pounded by hundreds of planes pre-battle and during the battle and then I have 5+ divisions of artillery supporting 2-3 attacks per turn in that sector. Not to mention you are facing a wall of mostly guard rifle corps w/flame tank battalions and sappers regiments.

I understand your concerns about the German OOB dropping and long term effects but in real life thats what happened to the German army it was slowly attrited to death.

I could point to basically pointless battles you fought all winter long that did nothing but cost you men, and I mean 1k+ men per battle simply because you didnt want to give up one hex....I was happy to kill Germans and build morale on these hexes every turn. As you werent dug in and so my kill ratios were very good esp after your bombed and shelled into the dirt.

[Peltonx]

As to your OOB dropping, its because your Army is replacing losses you took over the winter...I was inflicting 30-60k Losses on your Army per turn almost all winter long, and you went into winter with no manpower surplus due to how heavily I counterattacked your offensive all summer long.

That's not true as per our AAR I clearly had 50+ in pool.

Also your statement make zip sents

I get X replacements per turn and losses are X per turn.

What happened 2 turns ago has no effect on the next turn come on man you know better then that

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Losses- 73k to 30k = almost a 2.5:1 exchange rate in total for the turn when attrition and combat is counted- U cant ignore attrition in total loss calculations I lose more men to attrition than combat almost every single turn....out of that 73k like 60k was attrition.

Also that turn I only did 12 really good attacks due to the weather...so most of the attacks had massive amounts of airsupport...I have almost 15,000 planes probably 12,000 of them are bombers or fighters on bombing missions now....so.....I know 2-3 of the battles you were pre-bombed by over 500 bombers each even with the system massively reducing the amount of bombers launched.

Also out of 12 battles that turn I think I only lost 2....so thats 80%+ win rate...not a single attack was attritional in nature those were all well planned and supported assaults.

As to your OOB dropping, its because your Army is replacing losses you took over the winter...I was inflicting 30-60k Losses on your Army per turn almost all winter long, and you went into winter with no manpower surplus due to how heavily I counterattacked your offensive all summer long.

You losses this turn 50% of them were from the encirclement battle...mainly due to routs and zoc'd retreat...you had 7 infantry divisions in a horrible position virtually surrounded By soviet tank, mech, and guard cav corp supported by divisional artillery units not dug in trying to retreat across the open...even in mud those battles should be massacres for the Germans and they were. Those poor dudes were bombed by 4 entire fronts air forces and 2 of those fronts have the strongest best air force units in the red army...then attacked by some of the best units in the Soviet army supported by at least 2 artillery/rocket artillery divisions and you had no retreat space for any of them that wasnt through Zocs. The realistic and expected massacre of those 7 divisions happened...think like almost 10k of your losses was from those 7 divisions alone. Also those divisions had very little ammo and very little supply while my Corps are right next to repaired rail lines with HQs in close support so my units were supplied and yours almost out of supplies....so your men really didnt have much ammo left to shoot back I bet.

The battles at leningrad...well your men are again being pounded by hundreds of planes pre-battle and during the battle and then I have 5+ divisions of artillery supporting 2-3 attacks per turn in that sector. Not to mention you are facing a wall of mostly guard rifle corps w/flame tank battalions and sappers regiments.

I understand your concerns about the German OOB dropping and long term effects but in real life thats what happened to the German army it was slowly attrited to death.

I could point to basically pointless battles you fought all winter long that did nothing but cost you men, and I mean 1k+ men per battle simply because you didnt want to give up one hex....I was happy to kill Germans and build morale on these hexes every turn. As you werent dug in and so my kill ratios were very good esp after your bombed and shelled into the dirt.

So your saying your 60+ attacks during snow had no air support?

You did not have planes during the winter you only used them during mud?

The bottom line this the bottom line writing allot of stuff does not change that.

10 battles per turn should not be dropped German OOB 13 to 16 K per turn.

In your own words from PM you counter most of what your posting on forums WHY?

You only care about winning and could careless about game?

I don't get your double talk?

[chaos45]

I'm not doing any double talk....I answered in your other thread about the PM comments.

Difference is usually over the winter I used my air support to support 1-2 attacks from each front so it was spread out more to try and take more hexes....this turn that 1 German hex in the open ate the brunt of 4 very large air armies air strikes.....thats a massive difference in disruption on your divisions especially since they werent dug in. Dug in units eat less damage from air attacks Ive noticed....so you have 3 divisions in the open being pounding by probably 1k+ bombers big difference in overall air results on the units involved. If you had been dug in and with decent supplies my attacks most likey would both have failed but you werent. You were heavily disrupted, low on supplies, and standing in open facing 5 guard cav corps with a good leader.

You should know better than me how short of men you are you can look at your commanders report. My guess is you had units in contact with my unit and far from rail lines not getting replaced every turn. Then when you fell back to the Don you got close to the rail lines and limited contact to my forces for a turn. Thus all those very battered and understrength units finally got the replacements they needed wiping out your manpower reserves. You have played the game far longer than me and im sure realized this so stop the propaganda on it.

It was the same with my units once you broke contact to the don most of my tank and cav corps over the last 2 turns suddenly raised several CV due to actually replacing alot of losses and my manpower pool has been dropping like 200k per turn since the combat died down....its the effect of continuous combat operations you dont fully replace while in constant combat/contact with the enemey even in refit mode units will slowly drop strength if they are fighting all the time even with men/armaments in the pool. To fully replace/refit you have to break contact and stop being attacked/attacking.

[chaos45]

Re-reading this wanted to add something else about replacements/manpower/armaments.....

With the size of the respective armies a 50k surplus in manpower is nothing so saying you suddenly lose 50k manpower is meaningless. My entire army is near constantly between 80-90% ToE. With an almost 8M man army that means need about 800k men added to bring all of my units up to 100% ToE.

I would bet your German army is in the exact same situation with alot of units in 80-90% ToE range so a break in combat allows replacements to be brought forward at a better rate mean your 50k surplus men are finally added to units once a break in combat occurs. As you have an almost 4M man army so you are probably short 300-400k men to be 100% ToE is my guess. I cant read your commanders report but from watching my army over almost 100 turns of game play that seems to be how it works.

So if you are probably short 300k+ men, those 50k were just there waiting to be moved out when op tempo slowed as if units move alot or fight alot they dont near replace to full levels...at least my Soviet ones dont. Once I give them 1-2 turns behind the lines they will refill to around 90%+ ToE but only after a couple turns of rest on refit. If they sit in the frontline and dont fight they seem to maintain around 90% ToE if they fight on the frontlines even in refit mode I can expect them to be around 80% ToE.

Then one turn off the line they jump to around 90% and a second turn will bring them over 90%+ thats been my typical experience....an since I cant ever take them all off the line my army will always be in need of replacements period that go unfilled as im sure yours does.

Take a gander at your commanders report bet it shows alot of units not at 90%+ ToE

An yes I looked again Im burning manpower at a far faster rate than Im replacing it, manpower has been dropping again now that all the ToE changes are done. So saying the Soviets have infinite manpower is misguided. Also I think the change of tons more KIA soviets is going to have a drastic long term change to soviet manpower....as the KIA numbers for soviets are super high compared to disabled since .05 change.....so alot fewer replacements for the Soviets via that route....

Which is completely unhistorical and defies the facts of war. Almost always you have more wounded than KIA always. In modern war its now gotten to the point that advanced medicine saves many...its something like 50:1 wounded to KIA in the US military. In WW2 it was closer to 2:1 wounded to 1 KIA....not 2 KIA to 1 WIA.......which what this change has done.

[morvael]

I would also like to add that armies may shed/grow some men for several turns when moving from patch to patch due to new replacement rules/modifiers before the situation stabilizes. There are also different return rates from transfer pool. Situation is off-balance for many turns after a patch is introduced.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: morvael

I would also like to add that armies may shed/grow some men for several turns when moving from patch to patch due to new replacement rules/modifiers before the situation stabilizes. There are also different return rates from transfer pool. Situation is off-balance for many turns after a patch is introduced.

may?

you do not know?

So we play for hours and hours ( months and months) to find out if your may is right or wrong?

I know I have been here done this before.

I will keep posting as the lone voice that's right for months and months then you can change things.

Turn 95

Stavka OOB: 7,850,000 +95,000
GHC OOB: 3,980,000 -13,000

Stavka Loses: 7,874,000
GHC Loses: 2,460,000

Turn 96

Stavka OOB: 7,891,000 +41,000
GHC OOB: 3,964,000 -16,000

Stavka Loses: 7,947,000 +73,000
GHC Loses: 2,489,000 +29,000

Turn 97

Stavka OOB: 7,911,000 +19,000
GHC OOB: 3,954,000 -10,000

Stavka Loses: 8,031,000 +84,000
GHC Loses: 2,534,000 +45,000

3 turns of mud in 3 zones each turn.

[wac92]

...

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: chaos45

I'm not doing any double talk....I answered in your other thread about the PM comments.

Difference is usually over the winter I used my air support to support 1-2 attacks from each front so it was spread out more to try and take more hexes....this turn that 1 German hex in the open ate the brunt of 4 very large air armies air strikes.....thats a massive difference in disruption on your divisions especially since they werent dug in. Dug in units eat less damage from air attacks Ive noticed....so you have 3 divisions in the open being pounding by probably 1k+ bombers big difference in overall air results on the units involved. If you had been dug in and with decent supplies my attacks most likey would both have failed but you werent. You were heavily disrupted, low on supplies, and standing in open facing 5 guard cav corps with a good leader.

You should know better than me how short of men you are you can look at your commanders report. My guess is you had units in contact with my unit and far from rail lines not getting replaced every turn. Then when you fell back to the Don you got close to the rail lines and limited contact to my forces for a turn. Thus all those very battered and understrength units finally got the replacements they needed wiping out your manpower reserves. You have played the game far longer than me and im sure realized this so stop the propaganda on it.

It was the same with my units once you broke contact to the don most of my tank and cav corps over the last 2 turns suddenly raised several CV due to actually replacing alot of losses and my manpower pool has been dropping like 200k per turn since the combat died down....its the effect of continuous combat operations you dont fully replace while in constant combat/contact with the enemey even in refit mode units will slowly drop strength if they are fighting all the time even with men/armaments in the pool. To fully replace/refit you have to break contact and stop being attacked/attacking.

This might be why the numbers have not been adding up.

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