Random weather chart

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chaos45
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Random weather chart

Post by chaos45 »

Just want to make sure I'm getting bad luck and the chart wasn't changed at some point. The chart in the printed rule book shows:

Late October to early November

In north +4 and it's a random 11

On a dice roll of: (this is with modifier already included) so 64% chance of mud on the chart in printed rule book. Just want to be sure because so far no mud in our game lol.

1-7 = mud
8-9 = snow
10-11= blizzard

Just want to be sure as it greatly affects play what the chances are during those turns and if random weather is a penalty or benefit to one side or the other.
jwolf
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by jwolf »

To the best of my knowledge this is correct as you said. North Soviet zone should have mud more often than not, but one or two snow/blizzard turns there would be expected during this season, which usually lasts 4 turns.
if random weather is a penalty or benefit to one side or the other

Overall, you'll see different opinions about this, depending on what period of the war they are talking about. But IMHO this is the way to play. Neither side should be able to play based on perfect weather forecasting. We can't do that now and we certainly couldn't do that then. More importantly, from a game play perspective, random weather keeps players from what is in my opinion gamey strategic planning -- "I know the weather will be X next turn so I will do Y." Well, maybe the weather turns out to be Z instead, with possible serious consequences to strategy Y. More risk and uncertainty leads IMHO to a better game.
chaos45
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by chaos45 »

Okay having just playing through OCT and having done a couple Vs the AI through OCT....it really appears the weather table may have changed from what is written in the rule book.....

Can this please be posted or updated in the online rulebook.

As it really doesnt seem like 60-70% chance of mud anymore I would say Pelton is right and its more like a 60-70% of snow/blizzard.

This is a pretty massive change as it allows the Germans to continue offensive operations in Oct+

If it hasnt changed I guess im just getting alot of really out of odds weather rolls in these games.
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gingerbread
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by gingerbread »

chaos45
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by chaos45 »

thanks for the link, and pretty sure thats the same one in book....

it does seem that in the game though its not following those percentages. Even in the south it shows almost always mud yet we got at least 2 snow turns in October if I remember right. Which by that chart is a 1/11 chance.

Maybe Im just seeing some strange weather rolls but in general they dont seem to be following those %.
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Peltonx
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by Peltonx »

Odds are Germans will get more weather to play then non random weather.

Brian hit it just right in our game 2 mud turns that stopped 100% of my tanks and a 3rd that stopped 2/3 of front.

In most games I have played only 1 mud turn stops 100% of the front and a 2nd will stop 1/2 to 2/3 and that's its.

You had one that stopped nothing as I had zero panzers in the south and the 2nd was in north and I have zero panzers so you were a die rolling loser [;)]

So I got all clear + more snow then normal.

Over all random weather is a + for 41 and a HUGE plus the rest of the game. Germany gets to see weather first. Brain and yourself in some cases pulled back 5-7 hexes and the next turn was mud.

Also the blizzard can really nail SHC in the butt will a few mud turns and then come spring its completely random so big plus for GHC and for the rest of the game for that matter.

Now that I have played it enough I like it more then nonrandom.

I was being short sighted and not thinking past October.
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MattFL
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by MattFL »

In one current game as SHC it's end September and there hasn't been any mud anywhere the whole time save for one turn where there was mud in the Europe zone of all places. What are the odds of that given the "random" weather, must be ridiculously small, particularly in September in the north.... It just seems to be the luck (or lack of luck) of the draw....
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morvael
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by morvael »

The problem is there is very little rolls made (one per zone per turn), therefore difference from default percentages (expected values) may be great, unlike with combat where thousands of rolls are made during every attack and things average pretty well.
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Peltonx
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by Peltonx »

ORIGINAL: morvael

The problem is there is very little rolls made (one per zone per turn), therefore difference from default percentages (expected values) may be great, unlike with combat where thousands of rolls are made during every attack and things average pretty well.

morvael to be honest its fed up.

Look at the code.

I believe its plus 4 north but the fing table does not do 11+ 4 which is why every game I play north is clear or snow
or blizzard 1 in 10 mud, check the code as the usless people before u never got anything right.

I have 4+ games random weather and north is never mud, chart aka code is +4 with roll still 1-11 not 5-15 ect ect

I am stupid as a rock, but 4 mud turns in 5 games in north- really data before politics
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Peltonx
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by Peltonx »

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Just want to make sure I'm getting bad luck and the chart wasn't changed at some point. The chart in the printed rule book shows:

Late October to early November

In north +4 and it's a random 11

On a dice roll of: (this is with modifier already included) so 64% chance of mud on the chart in printed rule book. Just want to be sure because so far no mud in our game lol.

1-7 = mud
8-9 = snow
10-11= blizzard

Just want to be sure as it greatly affects play what the chances are during those turns and if random weather is a penalty or benefit to one side or the other.

After 7 turns of mud in all 4 zones I am starting to think your right.

That's 27 of 28 rolls

North 36%-27% chance of something other then mud = 1 non mud turn.
Center 18%-27% chance of something other then mud = 0 non mud turn.
South 18%-36% chance of something other then mud = 0 non mud turn.
Europe 27%-45% chance of something other then mud = 0 non mud turn.

I am no math nerd but the chances of 7 of 7 turns being mud in center, south and Europe is about 1%

Chaos is right something is screwed up or the design is PISS POOR which would not be the first time.
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Peltonx
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by Peltonx »

It is broken

north should be snow.

as I stated a few posts back
morvael to be honest its fed up.

Look at the code.

I believe its plus 4 north but the fing table does not do 11+ 4 which is why every game I play north is clear or snow
or blizzard 1 in 10 mud, check the code as the usless people before u never got anything right.
ORIGINAL: Seminole

Broken down by region:

Image

updated


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morvael
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by morvael »

ORIGINAL: Pelton
I believe its plus 4 north but the fing table does not do 11+ 4 which is why every game I play north is clear or snow
or blizzard 1 in 10 mud, check the code as the usless people before u never got anything right.

Die roll is 1..11, what you see in the log is die roll + zone modifier. Therefore 12 for north soviet means you actually rolled 8.

It's perfectly possible to have mud in every may turn with 72% chance of success and LOW number of rolls. To get into averages you have to make tens of thousands of rolls and compare them. Luckily this is true for combat engine, but unfortunately not for weather. One roll to rule them all, one could say.

Of course not a perfect random source is used for rolls, but a pseudo-random number generator. Therefore it doesn't guarantee that every number happens with 1/11 chance on this 11-sided die, so results could be skewed by a few % as well. But that's not the main problem here.
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morvael
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by morvael »

In the last screenshot your actual rolls were 11 for europe, 7 for south soviet, 8 for central soviet and 8 for north soviet.
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Peltonx
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by Peltonx »

We know what the chances are but 27 out of 28?

As Chaos stated early in the fall its was the same thing in reverse.

I am sticking to my guns and saying its fed up, don't mind being the only voice cring out. Been there and done that in the past and been proven right.

We are talking insane odds for both the fall and summer.

These rolls were helpful for me and not helpful so I am not grinding and axe, I also agreeded with Chaos when it was helpful for me.

if .05 posts odds for the next turn and this happens you have ALLOT of people bitching.
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morvael
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by morvael »

With 7 rolls in North Soviet Zone having 72% chance for mud, expected number of mud turns is 5, and the chance for having 7 out of 7 mud turns is 10%. This is a very high chance, and with not so many rolls you're bound to see this happen.

What bugs can be found in code as simple as

Code: Select all

roll = Random(11) + zmod
?

.05 gives you forecast, not rolls, so you're just seeing that there might be mud (or snow, or clear) on the next turn and prepare accordingly.

I think the problem lies in the fact that random weather table has so high chance for mud when compared to non-random weather which has 50% of clear turns during may. It's the table itself that should be adjusted (either the random or non-random one), not the code which is so simple it can't have any bugs.
chaos45
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by chaos45 »

Ya I mentioned this when the weather was very uncooperative for my Soviet defense in the fall.

I guess the game is making up for all that fine campaign weather it gave the Germans in fall and is giving them a really nasty Spring- I dont mind[8D]

You got really lucky with so few mud turns over the fall, if you look at the chart even for May its like 2/3rds chance of mud each turn so most of the turns in May should still be mud. Law of averages you should at most get 2 clear turns out of the month. Makes it very hard to do HQBU with any predicitability of clear weather enough to execute an offensive as you could get a solid turn then mud/mud.....

Its also historically why the Germans waited until the middle of June to launch their offensive to mitigate the weather as much as possible. As April/May are typically very rainy and they had heavy rains even up to early June in 1941 if I remember correctly.
swkuh
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by swkuh »

@morvael: forecasts in .05 would be wonderful! Can't wait for it, please expedite. So who & when is the "weather table" to be fixed?
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Peltonx
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by Peltonx »

ORIGINAL: chaos45

Ya I mentioned this when the weather was very uncooperative for my Soviet defense in the fall.

I guess the game is making up for all that fine campaign weather it gave the Germans in fall and is giving them a really nasty Spring- I dont mind[8D]

You got really lucky with so few mud turns over the fall, if you look at the chart even for May its like 2/3rds chance of mud each turn so most of the turns in May should still be mud. Law of averages you should at most get 2 clear turns out of the month. Makes it very hard to do HQBU with any predicitability of clear weather enough to execute an offensive as you could get a solid turn then mud/mud.....

Its also historically why the Germans waited until the middle of June to launch their offensive to mitigate the weather as much as possible. As April/May are typically very rainy and they had heavy rains even up to early June in 1941 if I remember correctly.
Historicaly non random is historical.

nothing like the chart
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Commanderski
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RE: Random weather chart

Post by Commanderski »

Historicaly non random is historical.

nothing like the chart

The chart might not match historical conditions but non-random is not historical. There was not a drought from June through October. Both sides were hampered from periods of rainy weather during the Summer of 41.

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