Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[paullus99]

Make him bleed - ultimately, PH gains him nothing...while you will just get stronger and stronger.

If you get lucky, you can either really put a crimp in his surface forces or just kill a lot of his troops. If he's fixated on PH, he can't be elsewhere. This is a bad play by him & you should make him pay for it.

[HansBolter]

Two AAR games going now with pending or implementing assaults on Pearl.

Hot Damn!

Logged in for the duration.

[KenchiSulla]

Joc, what does he have near the DEI shipping wise? Carriers? CVs or the CVLs? First thing I would do is route the Enterprise and Lexington towards Rabaul to keep him from capturing it early. It will be close but you might have just enough time to intercept or at least damage the invasion fleet (assuming that he tries to take it on the cheap). Then you can redirect your carriers towards the DEI so you can contest his attempts there...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Intimidated is a bit mildly put! [:D]

Just looked at the turn for 30 minutes now. Can´t really decide what to do...my first instinct was to divert everything towards PH and defend it to the death. But after pondering for a while I´m more inclined to do absolutely nothing about it. At least not for now. With the amount of troops in Malaya there is zero threat to PH itself. At worst the damaged BBs are toast. But they themselves are not worth any major risks.

One thing really strikes me though. If this is something serious and not just a feint...then there won´t be any India invasion, nor any OZ invasion. Because KB will be pinned in Hawaii until the Japanese leave or PH is captured. And if I know where the KB will be for the next 6-12 months...

I have until tonight to send the turn back. Going to ponder this for a while. Advice is welcome! [X(]

Of the Big 3 ahistoric 1942 moves--India, Oz, and Hawaii--Hawaii is by far the worst for Japan. There's just no strategic payoff. No HI, no supply generation. Not on the way to anywhere sustainable for them.

Build PH forts like your ass is on fire. You have plenty of engineers there on 12/7. Put whatever healthy surface assets you have in TFs in the harbor for AA. If they get hit the shipyard is yards away.

The outer islands are an air play; don't play. Let him eat supply.

A lot of folks think the outer islands let him raid the WC to Pearl routes. Go south and come at PH from the SE. If you want to get really radical you can use the Canal Zone as a primary supply rather than LA or an Diego. Takes a few weeks to fill the pipeline.

If he does go for the outer islands expect a move on Christmas very soon. Palmyra. Complicates the surface routes for you, but a lot more for him keeping the whole rickety machine supplied and especially fueled.

CAP your WC aircraft factories hard. Don't send your fighters to Oz yet. Put some S-boats on N-S patrol routes at KB ranges. Maybe 6-7 hexes out off SF, Seattle, etc.

Build forts everywhere. Did I mention forts?

Wait six months. While you do secure Ceylon. I'm not one who thinks it should be given away. That shipyard will save you many ship-years of transits.

Probably a lot of other stuff, but this is better for you than some alternatives.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Intimidated is a bit mildly put! [:D]

Just looked at the turn for 30 minutes now. Can´t really decide what to do...my first instinct was to divert everything towards PH and defend it to the death. But after pondering for a while I´m more inclined to do absolutely nothing about it. At least not for now. With the amount of troops in Malaya there is zero threat to PH itself. At worst the damaged BBs are toast. But they themselves are not worth any major risks.

One thing really strikes me though. If this is something serious and not just a feint...then there won´t be any India invasion, nor any OZ invasion. Because KB will be pinned in Hawaii until the Japanese leave or PH is captured. And if I know where the KB will be for the next 6-12 months...

I have until tonight to send the turn back. Going to ponder this for a while. Advice is welcome! [X(]

Of the Big 3 ahistoric 1942 moves--India, Oz, and Hawaii--Hawaii is by far the worst for Japan. There's just no strategic payoff. No HI, no supply generation. Not on the way to anywhere sustainable for them.

Build PH forts like your ass is on fire. You have plenty of engineers there on 12/7. Put whatever healthy surface assets you have in TFs in the harbor for AA. If they get hit the shipyard is yards away.

The outer islands are an air play; don't play. Let him eat supply.

A lot of folks think the outer islands let him raid the WC to Pearl routes. Go south and come at PH from the SE. If you want to get really radical you can use the Canal Zone as a primary supply rather than LA or an Diego. Takes a few weeks to fill the pipeline.

If he does go for the outer islands expect a move on Christmas very soon. Palmyra. Complicates the surface routes for you, but a lot more for him keeping the whole rickety machine supplied and especially fueled.

CAP your WC aircraft factories hard. Don't send your fighters to Oz yet. Put some S-boats on N-S patrol routes at KB ranges. Maybe 6-7 hexes out off SF, Seattle, etc.

Build forts everywhere. Did I mention forts?

Wait six months. While you do secure Ceylon. I'm not one who thinks it should be given away. That shipyard will save you many ship-years of transits.

Probably a lot of other stuff, but this is better for you than some alternatives.

Good advice Moose, but did you forget about the 20 HI and 80 LI at PH? Or were you discounting it because it needs extra resources brought in to operate at capacity?

[Lowpe]

Enjoyable reading.

Good luck!

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Intimidated is a bit mildly put! [:D]

Just looked at the turn for 30 minutes now. Can´t really decide what to do...my first instinct was to divert everything towards PH and defend it to the death. But after pondering for a while I´m more inclined to do absolutely nothing about it. At least not for now. With the amount of troops in Malaya there is zero threat to PH itself. At worst the damaged BBs are toast. But they themselves are not worth any major risks.

One thing really strikes me though. If this is something serious and not just a feint...then there won´t be any India invasion, nor any OZ invasion. Because KB will be pinned in Hawaii until the Japanese leave or PH is captured. And if I know where the KB will be for the next 6-12 months...

I have until tonight to send the turn back. Going to ponder this for a while. Advice is welcome! [X(]

Of the Big 3 ahistoric 1942 moves--India, Oz, and Hawaii--Hawaii is by far the worst for Japan. There's just no strategic payoff. No HI, no supply generation. Not on the way to anywhere sustainable for them.

Build PH forts like your ass is on fire. You have plenty of engineers there on 12/7. Put whatever healthy surface assets you have in TFs in the harbor for AA. If they get hit the shipyard is yards away.

The outer islands are an air play; don't play. Let him eat supply.

A lot of folks think the outer islands let him raid the WC to Pearl routes. Go south and come at PH from the SE. If you want to get really radical you can use the Canal Zone as a primary supply rather than LA or an Diego. Takes a few weeks to fill the pipeline.

If he does go for the outer islands expect a move on Christmas very soon. Palmyra. Complicates the surface routes for you, but a lot more for him keeping the whole rickety machine supplied and especially fueled.

CAP your WC aircraft factories hard. Don't send your fighters to Oz yet. Put some S-boats on N-S patrol routes at KB ranges. Maybe 6-7 hexes out off SF, Seattle, etc.

Build forts everywhere. Did I mention forts?

Wait six months. While you do secure Ceylon. I'm not one who thinks it should be given away. That shipyard will save you many ship-years of transits.

Probably a lot of other stuff, but this is better for you than some alternatives.

Good advice Moose, but did you forget about the 20 HI and 80 LI at PH? Or were you discounting it because it needs extra resources brought in to operate at capacity?

Those needed resources can be found at Hilo.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Good advice Moose, but did you forget about the 20 HI and 80 LI at PH? Or were you discounting it because it needs extra resources brought in to operate at capacity?

I'm discounting it because a player of Jocke's caliber should never lose PH. See previous on CD and "ass on fire." Getting the defense multiple up as fast as possible is very important.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder

Joc, what does he have near the DEI shipping wise? Carriers? CVs or the CVLs? First thing I would do is route the Enterprise and Lexington towards Rabaul to keep him from capturing it early. It will be close but you might have just enough time to intercept or at least damage the invasion fleet (assuming that he tries to take it on the cheap). Then you can redirect your carriers towards the DEI so you can contest his attempts there...

He has MKB + Kaga in the DEI. Ent and Lex could possibly have a field day over there if I divert them...decisions...decisions... [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I'm discounting it because a player of Jocke's caliber should never lose PH. See previous on CD and "ass on fire." Getting the defense multiple up as fast as possible is very important.

Arrgh. Wrote a long reply and then accidently closed the window...

Anyway. You have more faith in me then I do! I might end up the 1st person in AE history that loses PH! [:D] Not even sure this is an invasion. Have no SIGINT and it could be bad DL.

I don´t see much point for the Japanese to capture PH either. He will nail some VPs (5-7k perhaps). But if he loses 1-2k in the process its still a draw. And strategically it makes no difference. At least in my mind. Of course it will cause a delay as it will have to be recaptured eventually...but there are many routes to the HI. And the most complicated one is CENTPAC.

If he starts harassing the shipping from WC I´ll just move everything off map from the EC instead. More hassle and longer time but perfectly doable. And he needs the KB to do anything really dangerous. And having the KB at the WC means everything else is wide open.

Forts started building on T2. Slow process though as he keeps damaging the AF and port. But he can´t keep that up forever even using LBA. He will keep losing 10-15 planes each time. That will be a lot of planes (and VPs) in a couple of months.

[JocMeister]

Question:

What would be a realistic time table for him to actually invade PH? Singers will fall in about 8-10 days. That will free up some 6 IDs for him. I´m thinking he need to leave at least two behind to secure Java and the rest of the DEI? And that would mean leaving the backdoor open (Burma) and not securing the PI.

He can probably scrounge up another 2-3 IDs? That would give him around 3000 AV? Lets say that is enough to invade PH (I think he would need a little bit more). How long before he can get that into position AT THE EARLIEST? Can he lift that in one go or would he need multiple travels?

[paullus99]

Well, don't know about the timetable - but is he light anywhere else on the map, given the standard opening moves of the majority of players?

And what is the possibility of ramming through some quick reinforcements from the West Coast? I know you don't have much to work with right now, but some cheap AKs and the ability to fly in additional planes / troops might help in the short term.

Just a thought.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Well, don't know about the timetable - but is he light anywhere else on the map, given the standard opening moves of the majority of players?

And what is the possibility of ramming through some quick reinforcements from the West Coast? I know you don't have much to work with right now, but some cheap AKs and the ability to fly in additional planes / troops might help in the short term.

Just a thought.

I have two regiments ready at the WC. That´s it. All fighter pools are empty and the squadrons on the WC arn´t even half full. I could withdraw them though to fill up the pools a bit. But at the moment I´m a little bit reluctant to do that as it will hurt my training program badly.

[BBfanboy]

I am not yet convinced he intends to take PH. I think he wants to isolate it so that he has a freer hand to pursue an Alaska/North America strategy. Canoerebel was only able to stave off Auto-victory by PzJH by keeping enough air and land units around to reinforce Vancouver Island and Prince Rupert. He had just enough to prevent the Japanese from bombing the aircraft industries at Seattle. The game stalled out when PzJH could make no more progress and Canoerebel was advancing everywhere else.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I am not yet convinced he intends to take PH. I think he wants to isolate it so that he has a freer hand to pursue an Alaska/North America strategy. Canoerebel was only able to stave off Auto-victory by PzJH by keeping enough air and land units around to reinforce Vancouver Island and Prince Rupert. He had just enough to prevent the Japanese from bombing the aircraft industries at Seattle. The game stalled out when PzJH could make no more progress and Canoerebel was advancing everywhere else.

Yeah. I followed Olorins AAR against Micheal and he is a very competent and skilled player. Its not a far stretch to believe he has multi phased plan and this is just one of the steps to a larger goal.

[witpqs]

I would be stunned if he did not have a multi-phased plan! Whatever it is, you will have to think months ahead to be dealing with it competitively.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I would be stunned if he did not have a multi-phased plan! Whatever it is, you will have to think months ahead to be dealing with it competitively.

Indeed. I just need to try and figure it out....

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]December 11th 1942[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Strange days...

------------------------
CENTPAC
------------------------
I´ve done pretty much nothing at PH up until now as I expected the KB to leave any day... No more of that. PTs will sortie towards KB and the two islands north of PH. Both islands will also be mined in case it really is an invasion.

Next step will be to sortie DDs at full speed towards KB. I´ve also spent all my PPs changing the leaders of the fighter squadrons. I can´t stop him but I can make him bleed and generally feel uncomfortable. I´ve also turned back a lot of the subs that was leaving PH for the DEI. I will have some 30+ subs in the area within a week including a good number of S-boats.

I´ve decided that for now at least PH will be on its own. With the KB stuck at Pearl I have many opportunities elsewhere. PH Currently have just shy of 700 AV including a full ID. That will be enough for now.

------------------------
DEI
------------------------
I had snuck in a little surprise for the SCTFs guarding Manila. Worked...kind of. Wrong target though. But given the weather and pilots I can´t complain. They hit something! [:D]

Morning Air attack on TF, near Busuanga at 77,80

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 2

Allied aircraft
Vildebeest III x 11

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Vildebeest III: 3 destroyed, 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
xAK Kinrei Maru
xAK Chojun Maru, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Japanese ground losses:
876 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 24 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 17 destroyed, 5 disabled
Vehicles lost 2 (2 destroyed, 0 disabled)

I´m getting some luck with my subs too.

Sub attack near Busuanga at 77,80

Japanese Ships
xAKL Shun Yuan, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS Sailfish

Japanese ground losses:
43 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Still no landing at Luzon or Mindanao. Besides some sweeps over Clark/Manila I´ve hardly seen any Japs. I´ve used the lack of attention to sneak 4 old DDs back into Manila. Hopefully they will hit a 9 ship troop convoy tomorrow.

I´ve lost track of Kaga. I think she might have joined with MKB.

------------------------
NORPAC
------------------------
Cold Bay falls into Japanese hands. Dutch survives another day but will fall soon.

Ground combat at Dutch Harbor (171,50)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 6349 troops, 45 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 284

Defending force 3804 troops, 62 guns, 18 vehicles, Assault Value = 81

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 85

Allied adjusted defense: 57

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(-), preparation(-)
experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
182 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled

Allied ground losses:
137 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Assaulting units:
16th Recon Regiment
9th Infantry Regiment
20th Infantry Regiment
16th Engineer Regiment

Defending units:
37th (Sep) Infantry Regiment
Dutch Harbor USN Base Force
2/250th Coastal Artillery Battalion

I´ll continue to try and find the holes in the DEI and poke in them.

------------------------
SOPAC/OZ
------------------------
First Japanese TF spotted outside Hollandia. Rabaul invasion?

[BBfanboy]

If there are more TFs hanging around the Philippines, try putting your P-40Es on low naval attack at 100 feet. Restrict the range to "normal" so they will carry 500 lb bombs. Regardless of low skill in that attack mode, they will get hits at 100'.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

If there are more TFs hanging around the Philippines, try putting your P-40Es on low naval attack at 100 feet. Restrict the range to "normal" so they will carry 500 lb bombs. Regardless of low skill in that attack mode, they will get hits at 100'.

I don´t really dare do that right now. I´m worried they will try and strafe his BB/CA TF that is operating in the area. That would be...bad. [:D]