Turnaround? Lowpe (J) vs Tiemanj (A) Stock

[JocMeister]

Man that sucks. [:(]

You really can´t seem to catch a break can you? At least now you know the theory works. You just need some luck with the random dice.

[Lowpe]

I had been prepping a counter invasion for Marcus, and then foolishly turned it off when I thought the Bonins were threatened.

Look at the seriously over-stacked airbase.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

You should check how many of the Allied units participated in the invasion of the Marianas.  There well may be an opportunity to counter invade some of the Marianas.

Alfred

Good thinking...I don't even really need too much prep for them since it isn't a shock attack, and what better place for the troops stuck out to accomplish.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Man that sucks. [:(]

You really can´t seem to catch a break can you? At least now you know the theory works. You just need some luck with the random dice.

I feel that my carrier strikes have been cursed, but I am sure it is rather operator error.[:)] In the Marianas I tried to be too sneaky and crafty by half.

But here, I did everything right. Anticipated Allied moves, and managed to draw the short end of the stick.

Well, I know the Allies will bomb Kushiro with a portion of the Deathstars planes again today. Yesterday, I managed to shoot down a fair number. The runways at Kushiro are pristine with a fair amount of aviation support. If I felt I could hold the base for another day, I could stuff it with fighters. But, then again I run the risk of him bombarding with some of his ships.

As always choices.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Bummer with the KB strike

Alfred that is sneaky!

Alfred is the master of the oblique attacks...attacking on wholly unexpected fronts. Too bad he doesn't do pbem, I am sure he could spank all of us.[:)]

It is just a temporary setback, with a little luck, I may be able to hold for another day, drain his carriers of even more sorties and planes, and maybe get lucky here or there.

[Lowpe]

Keep the ideas coming, it will be a while before I cycle thru all my plane squadrons.

Then I need to come up with a tactic.

He still has at least 2 largely fresh, un-fought, groups of 8-10 fletchers. One in Kushiro proper, and the other due west.

The Deathstar hex, one east of Kushiro, would just be great to get some surface ships into, but that seems tough, but you never know.

Some of my bombers didn't fly last turn, having transferred to a fresh base, but should be good to go this day. My fighters are in pretty good shape, especially the Georges. More planes still arriving.

To tell the truth, I am thinking of having the KB sprint south and east and try to nail the retreating bb fleets. I guess a lot depends upon how well I can build the strength of the kB back up. I might move the slow mini KB to strike the landings at Bihoro.

Those are just initial thoughts, got a work my way thru the turn and get a better understanding of what I can hit with.

[setloz]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

To tell the truth, I am thinking of having the KB sprint south and east and try to nail the retreating bb fleets.

I think a strike against his CVs should be your priority. Without CVs he cannot reinforce and resupply any bridgehead he gains here. All his BBs would be useless...
The more he keeps his CVs in range of your LBA and fatigue his CAP, the more your chances of landing a successful blow should increase....provided KB actually does strike

[Lowpe]

Further thoughts,

At Rahaeng I will bombard the Allies...I have forts 4, and a fair amount of very heavy artillery. He has two mountain guns, plus the inherent artillery in his other troops.

It will at least drain his supplies, and I can afford a 1-1 exchange. I hope I get that, sometimes, the counterbattery can be really tough.

I should be able to put a pretty good land based air strike against him again this turn, but looking at the troops at Kushiro it will be hard for them to beat off another assault.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: setloz

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

To tell the truth, I am thinking of having the KB sprint south and east and try to nail the retreating bb fleets.

I think a strike against his CVs should be your priority. Without CVs he cannot reinforce and resupply any bridgehead he gains here. All his BBs would be useless...
The more he keeps his CVs in range of your LBA and fatigue his CAP, the more your chances of landing a successful blow should increase....provided KB actually does strike

I hear you...but even with a portion of the Deathstar on naval attack it will trash my KB. And without a KB how I can stop the flow of supplies to Hokkaido?[&:]

I just can't afford to lose those ships right now, and attacking the supply line, while land base air goes after the Allied carriers seems a much better trade than swapping carrier for carrier...I think I need to keep whittling away.

[mind_messing]

Keep at him. Drain his fuel, ammo and ops points.

Judging by how few US subs I see in the AO, I'd seriously consider siphoning off some of the KB's escorting ships to boost your surface combat power.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: setloz

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

To tell the truth, I am thinking of having the KB sprint south and east and try to nail the retreating bb fleets.

I think a strike against his CVs should be your priority. Without CVs he cannot reinforce and resupply any bridgehead he gains here. All his BBs would be useless...
The more he keeps his CVs in range of your LBA and fatigue his CAP, the more your chances of landing a successful blow should increase....provided KB actually does strike

+1

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Keep at him. Drain his fuel, ammo and ops points.

Judging by how few US subs I see in the AO, I'd seriously consider siphoning off some of the KB's escorting ships to boost your surface combat power.

I have thought of that too. Those great destroyers are going in....

but, I am pretty sure I can't risk the KB in another head on clash this next day. I have no surprise, I've got one CVE fleet down to 43 fighters (man the KB would have really nailed it if I had a coordinated strike), but there is another one with the deathstar that still has 200. I think he will simply switch places and look for another day like today.

Losing the KB would simply really be to tough for me to take. I already have lost way too much of it. I realize this is the endgame, but golly-gee, I gotta accomplish something with it. Plus I get two more carriers Unryu and Amagi in about 10 days or less.

[Crackaces]

One thing that one should not overlook -- disruption. say 70 Bombers can hit ground units and take maybe 3 disabled squads and 2 killed squads and the combat result might seem not very worth it ..
But .. you do not know how many squads were disrupted by percentage. That is not in the combat result ..Disrupted squads recover quickly but when followed up quickly disrupted becomes disabled .. disabled become killed squads and dead tanks ..

[setloz]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Losing the KB would simply really be to tough for me to take. I already have lost way too much of it. I realize this is the endgame, but golly-gee, I gotta accomplish something with it. Plus I get two more carriers Unryu and Amagi in about 10 days or less.

I don't believe now is the time to falter.

This is from my perspective, having followed your AAR for the past 6 months or so:
Your CVs are 5 hexes at most from a shipyard. His CVs are 80 hexes away from his shipyards.
You have LBA, he doesn't.
Your KB pilots are well rested. His are fatigued from 3 days of incessant attacks and ground strikes.
KB has full complement of pilots and planes. Allied DS has probably several planes/squadron damaged and repairing.

Not to mention the outcome: if you don't cut off his bridgehead and allow him to expand it then having the KB intact will be like having a white elephant: pretty but useless. Because your industry will be gone. And without industry there are no supplies....you will slowly bleed to death with the KB still intact...

All the factors point to this being THE moment in war when the tide can change for the next 6 months.
Of course, it's easy for me to say this from the supporters' seats. The decision (and responsibility) are yours.

[Alfred]

1.  The Allied Armada does not need a shipyard.  Any damaged Allied CVs can retreat to Attu (30 hexes distant )and because it is winter, be reasonably confident that no (or at worst only a weak one)Japanese air strikes will follow them.
 
2.  The Allied shwerpunkt is clearly Kushiro.  Either it or Bihoro must be captured within 2 days.  However the forces landed at Bihoro will probably be inadequate to capture it.  Both Kunashiro and Shikotan are expendable and if necessary can be sacrificed by Japan.
 
3.  Defeating the Allied Deathstar is not the prime consideration.  Retaining both Kushiro and Bihoro is the sole relevant consideration.
 
4.  Allied replenishment capability in January 1944 is limited which in turn limits the staying capability of the Allied CVs and CVEs.  Hence the importance for the Allies to capture the two Hokkaido airfields.  It is in the interest of Japan to be able to launch both AM and PM LBA sorties against any returning Allied Deathstars shepherding subsequent Allied resupply convoys.
 
5.  The best position for Japan is to
 
(a) prevent the Allied capture of the Hokkaido bases
(b) constantly use LBA to harass the enemy (both land and sea elements)
(c) use the KB against Allied ships (CVEs and transports etc) only when the Allied CVs have left.  Until then the KB can be used against the beachhead from a safe position
 
6.  The KB will be required for any timely counter invasion of the Marianas
 
Alfred

[mind_messing]

6. The KB will be required for any timely counter invasion of the Marianas

That's a pipedream.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

6. The KB will be required for any timely counter invasion of the Marianas

That's a pipedream.

And so is striking Pearl Harbor on 7 December 1941.

No KB accelerates the Allied advance everywhere even if every single Allied CV and CVE were sunk now. And there is no way Japan could guarantee that result with a sacrifice of the KB now.

No KB completely hands over the initiative to the Allies. That is even a surer recipe for a quick Allied victory.

Static Japanese defense guarantees defeat. Only an active defence provides possibilities.

Even a bad plan is better than no plan at all. Without the KB and the possibilities it provides of utilising the interior lines, Japan has no plan.

Alfred

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Even a bad plan is better than no plan at all. Without the KB and the possibilities it provides of utilising the interior lines, Japan has no plan.

Alfred

That's true, but a knee-jerk offensive at the Marianas when the Allies are ashore on the Home Islands isn't going to go well for Japan.

[Lowpe]

My turn is away...

And...I am flying in troops to Hokkaido...LRCAPing Kushiro heavily, since I know he will bomb with the KB planes there, or at least a portion. Trying desperately to save the Hokkaido bases. Might last one more day at Kushiro, but after that I don't think so. Shikotan is secure; Kunashiri probably a goner. If not today, then tomorrow.

I did something with the KB, I am keeping it secret until tomorrow, because I have no faith in the KB currently.[8D] It might work...but it isn't being recklessly aggressive. I agree with Alfred, if I lose the KB now it would be an unmitigated disaster...even a 1-1 trade.

The Musashi sorties...I feel a lot more comfortable with the surface ships.

We shall see what tomorrow naval strikes and sorties can do.

I feel pretty good about the turn, not great, just pretty good.

[Lowpe]

Upgraded and got my first Frances squadron today.

Two Helen squadrons are standing by to be the first Kamikazes.

I feel better now with my choices & strategy. What a great discussion everyone had with their points of view.

I am going to try and preserve the KB. Without it, and the two more carriers I get in a few days, the situation would be very bad. I did put the KB at risk, but I feel the risk is minimal for the potential strike & gain.

I also put the Musashi at risk, but there again, I think she is well escorted, and can potentially really cause some havoc, and not be attacked by Allied planes.

I had the Hyuga retire with the mini KB. They will reorganize, refuel.

I left several squadrons over in Indochina...I am not sure that the Allies know this...and they have flown in for a CAP trap over Rahaeng, Uttaradit and Pisanuloke. No fighter sweeps before his bombing.

I also put some Zekes over Iwo where he bombed yesterday.

I can't lose sight of my strategy of bleeding the Allies. He is using a lot of FM-1 Wildcats, his pools are hurting, and I have deep pools of fighters currently and even deeper when the Frank comes along in a few days.

This is not to imply that I am not in a grim situation, but the pressure is even greater for the Allies I think. Time to do some unexpected things and hurt him.