Rookie AAR

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Leandros
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Leandros »

Obvert wrote: I know you have a specific goal here, and that your desired endpoint colors your perception of the process, but I feel exactly the opposite
based on my reading on this point in the war;
I feel you misunderstand me slightly. I’m not out to have the process colored in any way but rather to see a realistic response to my own “actions”.
Obvert wrote: Do you have any examples in mind that I might have missed that show slow reactions by Japanese forces to Allied moves in the war?
Two examples: The way the Bataan assaults are sped up with more forces, faster, than in RL. I was well ensconced on Bataan on the exact RL time, January 6th. He
reinforced much faster, with more, than the RL. His assaults were more powerful, and more often, than RL. US losses from his artillery barrages are quoted as
300-1500. Much heavier than RL. Bataan therefore falls almost an month earlier than RL.

Same with Mindanao and Menado. He comes on faster with more than the RL.

Fred
River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D3 ... rw_dp_labf
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Leandros

Obvert wrote: I know you have a specific goal here, and that your desired endpoint colors your perception of the process, but I feel exactly the opposite
based on my reading on this point in the war;
I feel you misunderstand me slightly. I’m not out to have the process colored in any way but rather to see a realistic response to my own “actions”.
Obvert wrote: Do you have any examples in mind that I might have missed that show slow reactions by Japanese forces to Allied moves in the war?
Two examples: The way the Bataan assaults are sped up with more forces, faster, than in RL. I was well ensconced on Bataan on the exact RL time, January 6th. He
reinforced much faster, with more, than the RL. His assaults were more powerful, and more often, than RL. US losses from his artillery barrages are quoted as
300-1500. Much heavier than RL. Bataan therefore falls almost an month earlier than RL.

Same with Mindanao and Menado. He comes on faster with more than the RL.

Fred

If you try limiting the forces in combat mode you'll also reduce the effects of bombardments. If your forces are predominantly in reserve they will not waste supplies and won't usually lose that many troops. It helps to have good forts though, and of course you have to be careful you aren't outnumbered at the time and attacked with a DA or SA.

What might work best for you is to play either head to head or against a human opponent who has certain instructions and limits on actions. You'll most likely not test the thesis adequately against the AI.
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by BBfanboy »

ORIGINAL: Leandros


Juggling with the “ships under repair” menus are quite cool. To introduce a certain degree of realism I have generally adapted the following system: As most of the
BB’s are safely lodged on the bottom of the harbor they cannot immediately be moved to pier-side or shipyard docks. Until further they are stuck with “repair ship”.
As time for this expires they can be moved to pier-side or a dock. As an example, Nevada needs 60 days repair by a repair ship before fixing her flotation problem
can start. At pier-side it’s 32 days. When, however, can she be moved pier-side? If she could have been moved immediately to a dock total repair time, including
the flotation problem, would have been 89 days.

It’s obviously important to consider the hash sign.

Fred
The red text and hash sign signal that the selected repair mode will not repair all of the damage on the ship. That does not mean you should not repair what you can in that mode and switch to dockyard later when space is available.

Note that a repair ship can only service one damaged ship at a time. It will prioritize and leave the others in the queue without repairing them. In these cases the crew and port can usually repair things faster in pierside mode. I only use repair ships in remote locations to repair a point or two of major engineering damage.

Also note that taking ship off of Repair Ship mode before the repairs are complete involves a 3-day disconnection period during which no repairs occur. You can put any damaged ship that is not on fire into pierside repair at any time. The amount of help they get depends on Naval Support at the base, port size and numbers of other ships also in pierside repair.
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Leandros »

ORIGINAL: obvert

What might work best for you is to play either head to head or against a human opponent who has certain instructions and limits on actions. You'll most likely not
test the thesis adequately against the AI.
Thank you, you're surely right about that. However, it's been fun to see how the AI worked. After all, it was supposed to be part of the learning process. But, as
I stated earlier here, if my experiment works against the more aggressive AI, so much the better...

Fred

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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Leandros »

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
The red text and hash sign signal that the selected repair mode will not repair all of the damage on the ship. That does not mean you should not repair what you can in that mode and switch to dockyard later when space is available.

Note that a repair ship can only service one damaged ship at a time. It will prioritize and leave the others in the queue without repairing them. In these cases the crew and port can usually repair things faster in pierside mode. I only use repair ships in remote locations to repair a point or two of major engineering damage.

Also note that taking ship off of Repair Ship mode before the repairs are complete involves a 3-day disconnection period during which no repairs occur. You can put any damaged ship that is not on fire into pierside repair at any time. The amount of help they get depends on Naval Support at the base, port size and numbers of other ships also in pierside repair.
Thank you, good info.

Fred
River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D3 ... rw_dp_labf
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Buckrock »

ORIGINAL: Leandros
Other factors are the single and group-sailing ships ahead of and behind the Pensacola convoy. In main, the transports Ludington, Mauna Loa, Joseph Lykes,
Jane Christenson, Portmar Jupiter, Montgomery City and Malama. For simplicity I have assembled these in Pago Pago to be sent forward to Australia as it conforms
to their actual sailing times.

In case you weren't aware, CINCPAC lost contact with USAT Ludington just after she announced departing Christmas Island on Dec 7th for Canton Island.
The Ludington was then ordered twice by radio (on Dec 7th and Dec 12th) to make directly for Samoa but as she consequently never arrived there the
Ludington was assumed by the 20th Dec to have become a war loss. So it came as a surprise when she suddenly was sighted approaching Los Angeles
on the 22nd Dec and unaware of her previous orders.

I've seen nothing in your pre-requisites that would make Ludington any more likely to receive her official orders for Samoa, so perhaps it might give a
more realistic outcome to your test if you just let her have her way and instead appear as a reinforcement at Los Angeles on the 23rd Dec. The only
reason I mention it is that her cargo of 20 P-40Es may end up having some unreasonable influence on your results if deployed earlier than what was
likely for the circumstances.
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Leandros »


Actually, as there was no communications confusion – no orders were issued to ships to abort their journeys or divert to alternate destinations, Ludington didn’t
receive any updates before calling on Canton Island, a planned unloading stop. When leaving Canton she was instructed to call on Pago Pago where a convoy in wait
for Anzac escorts was assembling.

The Malama was also lucky in not being held up, as a delayed journey might have resulted in her dumping into two converted Japanese raiders on their way south
towards the US-Australia supply line. Malala carried, among other items, 7 radar sets and some radar operators. Several ships about to leave the West Coast was
marginally held up because of some local confusion rather than any express instructions…..Both the 20 P-40’s and the radar sets would come to good use…..

Fred
River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D3 ... rw_dp_labf
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Leandros »


December 9th 1941.

The Japanese have occupied Makin and landed on several places on the East Malayan coast. British BB Prince of Wales and BC Repulse have been sunk by bombers and
torpedo-bombers in the South China Sea. In a wire to Prime Minister Churchill President Roosevelt regretted the loss.

Based on a pre-determined plan the surface vessels of the Asiatic fleet are withdrawing to DEI ports. Admiral Hart’s submarines have left Manila for the area North
and NW of Luzon.

DD’s Perry and John D. Ford, the only DD’s left in Manila, now leave for Tarakan. They shall be joined there by CA Houston coming from Iloilo.

More than a dozen mines have been swept in the Manila Bay Approaches after reports of unknown submarine activity.

The Dutch submarine force is deploying between Malaya and Borneo.

Transports sailing separately westwards have been instructed to assemble in Pago Pago to await Commonwealth escort.

The whereabouts of the enemy TF that launched the attack on PH is still unknown. CV’s Lexington and Enterprise are set to meet near Johnston Island as is
CA Indianapolis with some DMS’s.

In an afternoon meeting in the White House War Room the USN leadership has been compelled to follow the President’s instructions of the whole-hearted support of
the US Philippine garrison. All practically available naval assets shall be used to that purpose. A carrier shall be picked to ferry army fighter planes to the
islands.

This decision was based on pre-war estimates of the enemy’s military capacity. Present Japanese operations indicate that they are in the process of a serious
over-stretch of their forces.

Admiral Stark has been chastised for his order to initiate unlimited submarine warfare against enemy merchant shipping. A fact that softened his opposition to
the President’s wishes for the future use of the Navy.

Officially, if war breaks out with Germany, the “Germany-first” policy is to be adhered to in principle but shall, for the time being, be put on hold till the
Pacific crisis has cleared somewhat. State Dept. is instructed to make contact with the ABDA partners for the support of the revised US Far East policy, referring
to the clause in the ABDA agreement that each nation has the right to use their military resources for the defense of its own territory and that The Philippines,
with its potential forces, shall be an important part of the total Allied defense against the Japanese aggression. Any assistance from the ABDA partners to such
a purpose shall increase the possibility of a successful defense as a whole.

Transports on their way, or about to leave for The Philippines, are instructed to carry on along a southerly routing. Ship carrying troops shall, to the best of
the Navy’s capability, be given an escort. Departure of supplies and troops already planned to go shall, as much as is possible and practical, be advanced.
Further army and navy units shall be processed as much as is possible, considering the military situation.

A term much used by the President the two first days of the war – “time is of the essence” - was to establish itself as a slogan for the Philippine relief operation.

A copy of the meeting agenda was dispatched to General MacArthur. He was pleased….[;)]
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Buckrock »

ORIGINAL: Leandros

Actually, as there was no communications confusion – no orders were issued to ships to abort their journeys or divert to alternate destinations, Ludington didn’t receive any updates before calling on Canton Island, a planned unloading stop. When leaving Canton she was instructed to call on Pago Pago where a convoy in wait for Anzac escorts was assembling.

I'd be interested in where your information on this is coming from, particularly since Ludington never reached Canton according to the Army, Navy and Corp of Engineer records I've seen. Some of these records also show the communications issued for both the Ludington specifically and to shipping in general for the Pacific during December 1941, as well as the concern that her "disappearance" after Dec 7th suggested she may have been lost to Japanese action.

Edit - I see now that you're not addressing the historical Ludington decision to simply head for home on outbreak of war but rather that in your game the relevent authorities (including the ship captains of the Plum Transports) for some reason decide not to concern themselves with what the Japanese might be doing in their area but to just carry with their immediate schedules.

Hard to believe but carry on.

If it helps, with no pesky communications to confuse the Ludington from her original schedule, she was supposed to leave Canton Island by the 13th Dec and would have been arriving in the vicinity of Pago Pago by Dec 16th at the earliest.
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Leandros »


Thank you, Buckrock - good to see you grabbed the point....[;)]...There shall be many more. This is a very different US leadership, you know...[:)]

I appreciate the way you are contributing to the quest! Please carry on!

Fred
River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D3 ... rw_dp_labf
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Buckrock
the relevant authorities ... for some reason decide not to concern themselves with what the Japanese might be doing in their area but to just carry with their immediate schedules.

Hard to believe but carry on.

If it helps, with no pesky communications to confuse the Ludington from her original schedule, she was supposed to leave Canton Island by the 13th Dec and would have been arriving in the vicinity of Pago Pago by Dec 16th at the earliest.
ORIGINAL: Leandros


Thank you, Buckrock - good to see you grabbed the point....[;)]...There shall be many more. This is a very different US leadership, you know...[:)]

I appreciate the way you are contributing to the quest! Please carry on!

Fred

I appreciate the way he's contributing too! [;)]
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Buckrock »

ORIGINAL: Leandros

Thank you, Buckrock - good to see you grabbed the point....[;)]...There shall be many more. This is a very different US leadership, you know...[:)]

I appreciate the way you are contributing to the quest! Please carry on!

Fred
Not a problem. I'm happy to contribute then where I can to your effort. Trying to "Save MacArthur" by only altering events from the outbreak
of the Pacific War (rather than before) is a worthwhile and intriguing project, particularly if the processes are historically plausible.

I'm not sure your explanation of no new orders for Ludington until after she later leaves Canton Island would work historically. Within two days
of her leaving Christmas Island, reports of Japanese attacks against other islands a few hundred miles from Canton Is were being received at
Pearl Harbor. There were probably good reasons why she was ordered historically to head for the relative protection of American Samoa instead.

It's worth a read if you haven't already of just what US intel (real and imagined) was being received by the relevent US commanders at this time
regarding the Japanese presence in the Western Pacific. The potential threats (including the West Coast Jap Carrier Scare on Dec 9th and 10th)
were considerable and Stark's decision to order all merchant ships to their nearest port and suspend shipping departures until the 12th was not
hard to justify, even possibly in the face of some "pre-war estimates of the enemy’s military capacity". And if you get the opportunity at some
point, it would be interesting to know what these pre-war estimates are that you are using.

One final question on your earlier scenario assumptions, should the 2nd Marine Brigade actually be "ready to go" as of the start of your AE game
if the project intention is to test what was possible historically? Unlike the 161st and 34th Regiments who were expected to embark within days,
the 2nd Marine Brigade had not been alerted for movement.

When the historical order came on Dec 14th to form the Brigade for the move to American Samoa, it was expected to take about 4 weeks (it
actually took 3) before the unit could be ready for embarkation. Are you going to hold the Marines for a few weeks at a West Coast port to
represent what appears to be a likely "forming up" delay or are they going to be embarked during the opening turns?
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by BBfanboy »

Seems to me that Leandros' scenario of a highly aggressive US leadership means that none of the historic decision delays need to be built into this AAR. All possible reinforcements will commence movement to the Philippines or the communication channel through the Molluccas that Leandros wants to test.
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Buckrock »

I would have thought even a highly aggressive leadership would still have to assess the risks for their intended actions. For example, the
historical shutting down of the trans-pacific shipping during the chaotic and confusing opening days of the war wouldn't neccessarily mean
the leadership that did so could not also have been a highly aggressive one. Depending on the reports coming in of enemy sightings and
activities, it might just mean the leadership was being sensible with its vulnerable and often valuable vessels until the situation became
clearer.

Sometimes, delays may just have to be accepted even by a highly aggressive leadership if the circumstances warrant it.

Leandros is obviously free to run his AAR game as he wishes. I've only been commenting on some of the historical aspects relating to his
project.
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Leandros »


December 10th, 1941

Tarawa, Wake, Guam, Aparri and Vigan are under attack.

USS Langley with 5 large transports and AVD Childs transfer to Zamboanga. DD’s John D. Ford and Peary join in as escorts.

Two USN DD squadrons are redirected from going to Darwin to Koepang, Timor and Menado, Celebes. These moves are aimed at bolstering the Dutch fighting morale.

Sub tender Otus moves to Cebu, USS Holland to Zamboanga. Two units of S-boats are sent to patrol the Bernardino and Surigao straits.

AKL Mauban, in Davao, heavily damaged.

As per earlier agreement Australia initiates the transfer of an infantry brigade and a Hudson squadron to Ambon. An MG and an Independent (Commando) Coy. are also
pre-warned of a possible transfer.

1st Marine Raider Bn. on the East Coast is pre-warned for transfer to the West Coast. Final destination TBN.

22nd BG, 31st PG and 4th PS/3rd BG have been pre-warned to move by rail from the East to the West Coast for overseas deployment.

161st and 34th infantry regiments are ready to start embarking in SF, destination PI.

The 7th BG (B-17E) is beginning its transfer to PI. First leg to PH.

Japanese sub I-19 executes several attacks on CA Indianapolis’s TF south of Johnston Island. No luck.

SS Shark is hit five times in a nightly surface attack on invasion convoys near Batan Island. SS Sturgeon torpedoes AP Husimi Maru near Vigan. On fire.

Johnston Island bombed by an enemy CV TF operating north of the island.

Bomber attacks on Wake. Defended by Wildcats. Hong Kong is bombed, many ships on fire in the harbor. Bombing raids on Malaya. Several losses for reciprocating
Blenheims and Hudsons. Repeated attacks on DD’s Thanet and Thracian in Hong Kong.

Tarawa, Wake, Guam, Aparri and Vigan are under attack.

More mines swept in the Manila Bay approaches.

The American consuls in Soerebaja and Cape Town are advised by State Dept. to contract with the local authorities for deliveries of fuel and supplies to the PI.

General MacArthur has ordered General Wainwright, CO North Luzon Force, to drive the invaders at Vigan and Aparri into the sea.

Germany declares war on the United States. Prime Minister Churchill contacts President Roosevelt to arrange for a meeting to solidify the strategy for the common
future warfare. Considering the prevailing situation in the Pacific, the President is rather unwilling to waste time for such a meeting at the moment, but the
Prime Minister insists.

Fred
River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D3 ... rw_dp_labf
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Leandros »

ORIGINAL: Buckrock
When the historical order came on Dec 14th to form the Brigade for the move to American Samoa, it was expected to take about 4 weeks (it
actually took 3) before the unit could be ready for embarkation. Are you going to hold the Marines for a few weeks at a West Coast port to
represent what appears to be a likely "forming up" delay or are they going to be embarked during the opening turns?
We shall see how quick they are...[;)]...Marines being Navy, I suppose the USN leadership is quite keen to give their transports a proper escort. If they are as
quick as hoped for in their preparations I could hold the Saratoga which is planned to go to PH, anyway, or wait for Yorktown which is on its way from the East
Coast.

"Time is of the Essence".

Fred
River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D3 ... rw_dp_labf
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Leandros »


December 11th 1941

SS Sturgeon receive heavy damage near Vigan.

Japanese forces land at Mir, British Borneo. The enemy landings at Vigan continue.

USS Skipjack torpedoes AK Hokuzuy Maru - surfaced attack. Four AK’s torpedoed by Bettys flying out of Formosa near Naga, PI.

The Japanese are preparing to land near Legaspi on the southern-most point of Luzon. Vigan and Aparri are captured.

The enemy lost 13 Sonias during the day – 37 planes in total. Allied losses were 9 planes.

Fred
River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D3 ... rw_dp_labf
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Leandros »


December 12th 1941

A US officer to achieve some fame later in the war, Colonel Eisenhower, reports to Brig.Gen. Gerow to serve in the War Planning Dept., Washington. Eisenhower served
under MacArthur during his first period as advisor for the build-up of the Philippine Army and knows the local conditions well.

The remaining B-17’s stationed on Clark Field are transferred to Del Monte, Mindanao. On MacArthur’s orders offensive fighter missions on Luzon are restricted to
save planes for recce missions and the support of eventual future relief efforts.

The Japanese have occupied Legaspi.

The USN submarine carpet N and NW of Luzon is starting to take effect. Not the least because of Admiral Hart’s very adamant instructions in a common meeting with
his sub commanders on the evening before they left Manila. “Establish an impenetrable minefield of submarines”!

SS Tarpon hits AK Disin Maru near Hengchow. SS Swordfish hits AK Chuko Maru near Aparri. SS Salmon hits AK Somedono Maru near Laoag.

Several allied transports sunk by bombing in Georgetown.

7 Dutch 139-bombers attack BB Nagato near Singkawang.

Heavy bombing of Hong Kong harbor. Many hits on ships. Situation confused.

5 Swordfish flying from Singapore attack BB Nagato. 3 hits reported.

S-39 is surprised on the surface near Vigan. 10 hits, sinks.

SS Perch hits AK Thames Maru near Hengchun, heavy damage. SS Permit hits AK Somedono Maru. Confirmed sunk.

Hong Kong is captured. All defending forces surrender. Miri, British Borneo, is captured.

Fred
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Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D3 ... rw_dp_labf
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by BBfanboy »

Did those Swordfish attacking Nagato carry torps or just bombs because of the range?
Were any ships able to escape from Hong Kong?
The British MTBs can be quite useful in N. Luzon area.
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RE: Saving MacArthur - Rookie AAR

Post by Leandros »

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Did those Swordfish attacking Nagato carry torps or just bombs because of the range?
Were any ships able to escape from Hong Kong?
The British MTBs can be quite useful in N. Luzon area.
The Swordfish'es carried bombs. Three torpedo hits would have been interesting.

In the game the RN destroyers escape from Hong Kong. In my game, anyway. No MTB's got away in RL. I don't think they even tried. Too
far to friendly port.

Fred
River Wide, Ocean Deep - a book on Operation Sea Lion - www.fredleander.com
Saving MacArthur - a book series on how The Philippines were saved - in 1942! https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07D3 ... rw_dp_labf
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