AllenK vs Mayhemizer AAR

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Western front after impulse 5.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Eastern front after impulse 5.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

China after impulse 5.

[AllenK]

Are there any experienced players that can comment on this combat?

From what I can see, it hasn't taken into account the attack is across river and the rain.

The odds are listed as 39:4. There are 31 land factors attacking and 8 air factors. However, the land factors should be halved for attacking across the river, making 15.5 and the air factors should be halved for the rain, giving 4. That would be 19.5: 4.

19.5:4 is 4:1 (+8) with .875 chance of the fractional (I think). –2 for the rain and +1 HQ support gives +7 and with a fractional roll of .641, I think it would have got the +1. +8 in total. A 16 on the Blitz table would be 1 attacker lost, all attackers disorganised and defender retreats.

Am I missing something?

[Centuur]

No oil game, so this is a good gambit of the Germans not to allow the claim on Bessarabia. Question is only, will the turn end before the USSR gets a land unit into Rumania itself... The Axis can't all pass, because Germany needs to kill the Poles next impulse...

Interesting...

[AllenK]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

No oil game, so this is a good gambit of the Germans not to allow the claim on Bessarabia. Question is only, will the turn end before the USSR gets a land unit into Rumania itself... The Axis can't all pass, because Germany needs to kill the Poles next impulse...

Interesting...

Hi Centuur, thanks for the comment. Do you have any idea regarding the combat result question? By my reckoning, the Soviets should be largely disorganised.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: AllenK

Are there any experienced players that can comment on this combat?

From what I can see, it hasn't taken into account the attack is across river and the rain.

The odds are listed as 39:4. There are 31 land factors attacking and 8 air factors. However, the land factors should be halved for attacking across the river, making 15.5 and the air factors should be halved for the rain, giving 4. That would be 19.5: 4.

19.5:4 is 4:1 (+8) with .875 chance of the fractional (I think). –2 for the rain and +1 HQ support gives +7 and with a fractional roll of .641, I think it would have got the +1. +8 in total. A 16 on the Blitz table would be 1 attacker lost, all attackers disorganised and defender retreats.

Am I missing something?

Yes, Rumania is surprised and therefore rivers don't halve the attacking units and the ground support is doubled during the surprise impulse. So 31 factors and 8 air factors (doubled for surprise and halved for rain again) makes it 39...

[AllenK]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: AllenK

Are there any experienced players that can comment on this combat?

From what I can see, it hasn't taken into account the attack is across river and the rain.

The odds are listed as 39:4. There are 31 land factors attacking and 8 air factors. However, the land factors should be halved for attacking across the river, making 15.5 and the air factors should be halved for the rain, giving 4. That would be 19.5: 4.

19.5:4 is 4:1 (+8) with .875 chance of the fractional (I think). –2 for the rain and +1 HQ support gives +7 and with a fractional roll of .641, I think it would have got the +1. +8 in total. A 16 on the Blitz table would be 1 attacker lost, all attackers disorganised and defender retreats.

Am I missing something?

Yes, Rumania is surprised and therefore rivers don't halve the attacking units and the ground support is doubled during the surprise impulse. So 31 factors and 8 air factors (doubled for surprise and halved for rain again) makes it 39...

Ah. Well, you live and learn.

Now, how do I keep those pesky Russians at bay for a little longer?

[AllenK]

S/O 1939 Axis 7

The weather doesn't get any better.

[brian brian]

ORIGINAL: The little Bavarian corporal

I have flipped a coi ...

good stuff [:D]

ORIGINAL: AllenK

Now, how do I keep those pesky Russians at bay for a little longer?

you answered that one in the next post with a successful prayer to the weather gods ... somewhat

[composer99]

Best case scenario for the Germans is that they take Lodz and the turn ends (can it end?), leaving them in a position to force a peace in Rumania and conquer Poland without the USSR getting Eastern Poland.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: AllenK

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: AllenK

Are there any experienced players that can comment on this combat?

From what I can see, it hasn't taken into account the attack is across river and the rain.

The odds are listed as 39:4. There are 31 land factors attacking and 8 air factors. However, the land factors should be halved for attacking across the river, making 15.5 and the air factors should be halved for the rain, giving 4. That would be 19.5: 4.

19.5:4 is 4:1 (+8) with .875 chance of the fractional (I think). –2 for the rain and +1 HQ support gives +7 and with a fractional roll of .641, I think it would have got the +1. +8 in total. A 16 on the Blitz table would be 1 attacker lost, all attackers disorganised and defender retreats.

Am I missing something?

Yes, Rumania is surprised and therefore rivers don't halve the attacking units and the ground support is doubled during the surprise impulse. So 31 factors and 8 air factors (doubled for surprise and halved for rain again) makes it 39...

Ah. Well, you live and learn.

Now, how do I keep those pesky Russians at bay for a little longer?

warspite1

Out of interest do you know about the problem with the Peace Keepers coding? Have you and your opponent discussed to ensure you are both on the same page?

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Things just got interesting. I have to admit that I maybe did not remember that I need to enter Rumania, not only Bessarabia. It came to mind when it was not possible to break trough during rain

I remembered that river does not affect during surprise impulse. But I forgot that air factors are doubled, I could have used one plane to ground other unit.

Now weather is even worse, so Rumania may survive. I should have set one INF div with for invasion.

On the other hand I like this situation, I have never before been in a game like that. What I hope to happen is (I need luck for this, but so far I have been a lucky guy):
-Germany can have Poland, if they really want it
-Turn does not end
-USSR manages to advance Rumania
-USSR takes East Poland and US gets mad refusing ever to help aggressive countries in Europe.

If this happens, I would be happy.

I once played a game with peacekeepers in Finland. We were able to work it out. We solved combat using random.org rolls and then worked out movements in game. Still there are problems, for example advancing after attack. If defenders get losses from Rumanian troops, those troops can do a suicide attack next impulse. German losses can be railed to Germany and right amount of BPs are thrown away.

But it is likely that we don't have to face this problem...

[AllenK]

S/O 1939 Axis 7

Hungary aligned and units deployed. USA not bothered on an 8.

Now what to do?

If all pass, 30% chance for turn to end. Germany, however, has a couple of loose ends to tie up in Poland. They choose combined. Japan and Italy have things to do but these are less urgent. Indeed, one of the things on the Italian list would be accomplished by the turn ending. Both pass for a 20% chance.

A Do-17 flies to the North Sea 1 box, with an escort. They are joined by Scharnhorst, Gneisenau, Hipper and Blucher in the 4-box. Do the Allies wish to intercept? Needs a 2 or less.

[AllenK]

To move things on, I am going to make a wild guess and assume the assorted Allied Trans and CP's probably don't want to attract undue attention to themselves.

This gives Germany choice of two sea areas; the North Sea and the Baltic.

In the North Sea, Blucher initiates combat. Would the RAF care to participate in the proceedings?

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Spitfire goes to 0 box to cover transporters. If aborted, abort to Denmark. 1st kill/abort Do 17 if I can choose.

I will avoid combat if possible.

[AllenK]

The Spitfires scramble to the defence of the transports and convoy.

Eager eyes scan the horizon. Lookouts on the Blucher report smoke on the horizon. The German ships turn to investigate and are delighted to find the Transports and a convoy, protected by 3 CA/CL. The Allies appear unaware of the German presence.

[AllenK]

The German ships close to within gunnery range and unleash their opening broadsides on the leading CW transport (4 surprise to force naval combat and 3 to select target). Unfortunately, the accuracy is less than desired, leaving the transports heavily damaged but still afloat. Which would the Allies like to place the first abort on?

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Abort undamaged transporter. All aborted ships goes to south west UK major port.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Call CW sissy but they will leave the North Sea after combat