RHS Atomic Bomb Theory (query and reply to it)

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el cid again
Posts: 16980
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 4:40 pm

RHS Atomic Bomb Theory (query and reply to it)

Post by el cid again »

This is a reply to a query - which is below the reply - by a player. FYI

Actually - you can participate in a test game if you like

It is how I find errors - being forced to play makes me use the user interface
in a sense that just working on files does not.

OK - the atomic bomb.

It is generic to RHS, and since it is strictly speaking historical, even if little known,
it is in all scenarios. Japan got a good deal closer than any other wartime nation
except the USA and the UK - and like UK didn't quite get there. Also like the UK,
it had a problem with atomic fuel supply - and toyed with the idea of a "thorium bomb"
(see The Two Koreas and Origins of the Korean War for scholarly descriptions).

But first to back up a step. The stock atomic bomb doesn't really work properly.
That is, it isn't very destructive. This is because the basic model for all weapons
is too simple, and essentially limits any one weapon to one target - so you cannot
devastate a task group, a city or a LCU with many squads in it. As well, IMHO the
political effects of using the bomb in stock are dead wrong: IRL the intent was
to use the bombs tactically - if you believe Gen Marshall - about 9 would be available
for Operation Olympic. Manhattan sources suggest he was really told 12, and he may
have revised downward the number for public consumption (SOP in the Cold War era - I attended a lecture in which a national laboratory physicist understated the warhead count on a US SSBM. When I asked him why, he said "that is the SOP and prevents me from being charged with stating a value I know from classified is true.")

Anyway - my first step was to design a bomb that (a) was more destructive;
(b) was available in realistic numbers and (c) had no political effects other than
those caused by things like ships sunk or territory lost because of their tactical
use as Marshall says was the plan. Also FYI Truman suspended atomic bombings
after Nagasaki - before the surrender; it is unlikely he would have restarted city
bombing given his reasons for the suspension. If it was going to shock the regime
in to capitulating, then that would happen anyway - and if it was not - more probably would not change that.

During the design process, I decided to distinguish between bomb types. I called them Uranium Bombs (meaning gun type fueled by U-235) and Implosion type (meaning compression type fueled by Pu-239). There are two differences -
neither very important: (1) the gun type is more reliable - more likely to work;
(2) there is a greater chance you get a 50% larger than expected yield. Even if both types failed, there was still likely to be a terrible effect. So I created five different devices:

1) A Dud Bomb Effect with 99% reliability - it is assumed to be a 1% of Yield device.

2) A 3% of Yield U235 Bomb device with 100% reliability but a 10% chance
you get a Dud Bomb Effect instead of the 3% effect

3) A 3% of Yield Implosion Bomb device with 100% reliability but an 11% chance you get a Dud Bomb Effect

4) A 33% of Yield U235 Bomb device with 100% reliability but an 80% chance you get a Dud Bomb Effect

5) A 33% of Yield Implosion Bomb device with 100% reliability but a 79% chance you get a Dud Bomb Effect

These weapons are carried in special atomic bombers - each with 22 "bombs" on board - Twenty 3% of Yield devices, one 33% of Yield device and one dud bomb device. 20 x 3% = 60% + 33% = 99% + 1% = 100 % of Yield. Further, Yield is the INTENDED yield of the bomb - slightly different for each case - with the 33% device permitting a possibility of about 50% MORE than intended (which happened at
Nagasaki). I used the Los Alamos Primer to work out the Uranium bomb and estimated the Implosion bomb using data from US Nuclear Weapons.

In practice, SOME of the 21 devices will "fail" and give you Dud Bomb Effects.
Statistics render it unlikely you will get a lot of failures and the likely outcomes
cluster pleasing around either the design yield or a value just more than 50% greater
than that with a very small chance of a very small outcome. And it matters not a bit -
because in EVERY ATTACK you WILL damage 22 targets! The "dud bomb effect"
can penetrate 600 mm of armor with the effect of 657 pounds of TNT - and the worst possible case is you get 22 of those.

There is also another device - the Pumpkin Bomb - a US only device - which is delivered by aircraft that LOOK LIKE the atomic bombers. The Pumpkin Bomb is a practice bomb the same size and weight as an atomic bomb but filled with conventional explosives - used on real targets to give crews experience and to confuse the enemy about what atomic bombers look like. In game terms this matters - single bombers are unlikely to penetrate air defenses in 1945 - but masked in a group - a single atomic bomber is likely to penetrate.

These weapons are delivered by five different kinds of bomber aircraft - three B-29 variants [one for the U235 bomb (B-29 Silverplate U) , one for the Implosion bomb (B-29 Silverplate I), one for the Pumpkin bomb (B-29 Silverplate P)] - one for JAAF (G8N1 UB) and one for JAAF (Ki-91 UB). "Control of nuclear weapons" is achieved by limiting the numbers of these aircraft available to players. But differences in how aircraft are produced in hard code make it much less likely Japan ever gets any. As well, dates are different for each aircraft - and all the US types appear first - before the end of the historical war. Naturally the Pumpkin Bomber appears when it really did - in May 1945 - so crews can get experience (and the enemy be lulled into thinking this strange bomber with almost no guns is no big deal - a single bomb does little damage - although you don't want to be on whatever it hits!). From July, 1945, the US gets (automatically) one Uranium bomber every month. From August 1945, the US gets (automatically) TWO Implosion bombs every month. From August 1945
IJN MIGHT get on G8N1 UB every month. From October IJA MIGHT get one Ki-91 UB every month. Two additional matters limit the use of bombs.

1) Production issues affect ONLY Japan. It must dedicate an entire factory to producing either possible atomic bomber. It may not expand that factory to get more planes. It must also must be producing engines - which are different for each bomber. It must also produce 5 HI points not allocated by code (which does its work
outside player control) for something else to get each plane. And HI will not be produced if the HI Center is damaged, or if it does not have enough resources or fuel points. So Japan can be prevented from making even one atomic bomber if
(a) you prevent it from having any resource points to feed the HI centers; (b) you prevent it from having any fuel to feed the HI centers; (c) you damage the HI centers; (d) you damage the engine factory required or (e) you damage the aircraft factory required. Resource centers, oil centers, and oil refineries can all be damaged - and shipping of resources and oil or fuel after it is converted to fuel also may prevent HI centers from working. By summer of 1945 a proper Allied campaign probably will cause a breakdown somewhere in this food chain. The US gets its bombs regardless of events - even if it is almost driven from the Pacific theater.

2) USE rules DIFFER for both sides. Note all the "squadrons" are detachments with a single aircraft. The US could combine its detachments, but if so, the squadron must fly only with Pumpkin Bombs. If a Silverplate mission is flown, the US player must immediately upgrade the aircraft of the detachment to Pumpkin Bomber or, if not possible, disband the squadron. Japan only gets two different detachments, each in a different service, and they may not use each other's aircraft, nor is there a way to combine them. If an atomic bombing mission is flown, they must disband the detachment - period.

All atomic bombers may fly recon missions and are equipped to do that. However, Japanese bombers may ONLY fly recon to extended range - and bombs can be carried only to normal range. The B-29 Silverplate can carry an atomic bomb to extended range!

These capabilities are not equal for both sides. As well, a Japanese effort (they can invest in one or two different aircraft types - at the expense of taking whole factories out of service for numbers of planes of other types) may well not be worth running one mission approximately every couple of months. Note that even with the RHS atomic bombs there is not usually as much damage to the target area as a real atomic bomb would do - unless you target the original US target - a fleet base with a fleet in port. [The assumed target was Truk. But by the time the bomb was available, Truk no longer was a germane target and not enough ships were left to target and have a decisive effect anywhere.] A fleet attack might well do as much damage as even the hydrogen bomb tests on ships did. More damage could be done (using more sub-bomb devices of course) but it would not render a realistic range of nominal yields, and I felt that was more pleasing for players. These "atomic bombs" should generate a series of reports - one per target - creating the impression of a sort of "big attack" even if by one plane. But do you really want to watch that attack go on for an hour of game time? I assumed probably not.





In a message dated 2/12/2015 1:10:18 P.M. Alaskan Standard Time, gabriele_suma@yahoo.it writes:
Hello ,


,I read various notes of your mod and your reference on uranium bomb for Japan is interesting but its possible "anticipate" the project ? how I start the project ? the project requests a sort of "tree" of features to be operative ? where I can see the tecnology? or the project requests special "engines" that are in engine R&D ? because the atomic theory document not shows details like gameplay feature for japanese player on uranium bomb.

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