Naval Air Search Coverage

[Jim Stevens]

Has anybody come up with a formula or spreadsheet that says for x number of search planes, covering an arc this many degrees, at this range, what would be the probability of searching every hex?

[Quixote]

Search in this game is considerably more complicated than just dividing the number of square miles to be searched by the number of aircraft assigned to search. I doubt that anyone has a spreadsheet or formula, since too many other things factor into the result (weather, experience, prior detection level, force composition, altitude, fatigue, leadership, luck, etc.) What you'll find is that the longer you play, the better feel you'll get for what is adequate in terms of search and what isn't (and even this will change depending on your resources at any point in the game.) Granted, this isn't as comforting as being able to rely on a guaranteed formula, but it does make the game a lot more interesting.

[Jim Stevens]

Thanks for your reply.

I wasn't looking for a search success formula. I just was trying to gauge what was physically possible, not worrying about the other factors affecting the probability of finding anything. Most would agree that if a player were to assign a 360 degree arc with a range of 15 to two aircraft, chances are these aircraft would not be able to cover the entire search zone in a day. A way to quantify that judgement is what I was fishing for. If I have 5 aircraft, how big an area could I reasonably search? How about 10 or 12? These are the questions I was looking to see if somebody analysed.

[Quixote]

I understand what you're asking, but I apparently didn't do a very good job of explaining why there is no definitive answer.

What are you searching for? If it's a 100 ship amphibious invasion force, your two plane group will find it almost every time. If it's a sub, your two plane group will probably never find it. In-between cases run the gamut.

What is the weather like in both the base hex and the potential target hex? Bad weather in either, you're probably out of luck. Clear weather in both, completely different result.

What is the experience level of your search group, and what's the experience level of their leader? A group of 12 green pilots with a mediocre/poor leader could fail to find something that an experienced group of 2 planes with a good leader might find most of the time.

How fatigued is your search group? Doesn't matter how experienced or well led your search group is if they are too tired to take off in the first place...

These are only a few examples of why you can't quantify this very easily - the list goes on. Are you playing Japan or the Allies? Is it early war or late war? Do your search planes have radar on not? Has the TF you're looking for been spotted recently or not? Along with all of these variables and more, you'll end up with at least one or two rolls of the dice before determining a result...

Again, I understand what you're asking, but unfortunately there is no really good generic answer.

[Alfred]

Jim Stevens,

Naval Search does not operate like that ingame. Read this thread.

tm.asp?m=3163109&mpage=1&key=naval%2Csearch&#3165121

Each assigned plane searches a 10 degree arc. Period.

Whether it flys both AM and PM phases depends on distance set and cruise speed of plane.

whether it actually spots anything depends on distance set and pilot quality.

Alfred

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Jim Stevens,

Naval Search does not operate like that ingame. Read this thread.

tm.asp?m=3163109&mpage=1&key=naval%2Csearch?

Each assigned plane searches a 10 degree arc. Period.

Whether it flys both AM and PM phases depends on distance set and cruise speed of plane.

whether it actually spots anything depends on distance set and pilot quality.

Alfred

Alfred,

Isn't this true only if you manually set search arcs?

If you don't manually set search arcs then even a squadron with only 3 planes such as many of the Dutch floatplane squadrons will still search an entire 360 degree area.

I see this routinely time and time again where a single Dutch FP squadron of 3 planes finds enemy TFs over areas amounting to far greater than 30 degrees.

I know this isn't a result of having a half dozen or more of these 3 plane squadrons overlapping because I typically use only two of the plethora of Dutch FP squadrons for naval search, placing one near Batavia and one near Koepang.

All other Dutch FP squadrons are used as troop ferries to get the Dutch LCUs where I want them for concentrated defenses in chosen locations.

These two squadrons of 3 planes routinely find IJN TFs across far greater arcs than 30 degrees each.

I do not manually set search arcs because I firmly believe doing so actually handicaps the search ability.

[witpqs]

My recollection of Michael's explanation of this quite a while back...

If you do not manually set search arcs, meaning you leave them (sort of) with no settings just the way they are when you first set the group to search, the group will do an 'old style' search using the code that present before search arcs were introduced to the game. That means that each TF will have a % chance of being seen, that % decreasing as the range increases. Also the number of planes and other things are taken into account.

By setting a search arc you have a better chance of seeing TF within the search arc. I presume a much better chance. So if you have limited planes/groups available and just need some general searching, using the old settings can be useful. In most situations, meaning where it makes sense to search heavily in a certain direction, setting search arcs makes sense.

[Alfred]

HansBolter,

You are almost certainly experiencing, with your 3 plane Dutch units, the code subset routine for naval searching up to 4 hexes. Within 4 hexes you get blanket area coverage although once again the more aircraft you have the better quality it is.

Search arcs is therefore really a consideration for >4 hex coverage, and for practical considerations most players will need a 6-8 hex early warning zone as a minimum. Bear in mind that as the range gets bigger the efficiency of the search diminishes to the point that searching out beyond 12 hexes becomes quite inefficient.

Alfred

[AW1Steve]

OK, I get it that the answer always depends on "it depends", as conditions always cause a variance. So for those of us who aren't math or scince majors, just so I can get a "ballpark feel", let's say I have 3 squadrons of PBY's on an island. Clear weather , pilots with experince in the 70's, good moral,supply,support, and they just had a USO show come through. [:D] If they are set at 50% search (no vectors) and at 6000', can I assume that I have a good chance of spotting , oh say 12 ships with a CV or two amongst them, out to say 15 hexs? If not , what numbers,training and resources would I have to expend to acheive say 75% change of catching the KB before it pastes me? [&:][:(][X(]

[Alfred]

AW1Steve,

Three PBY squadrons, at 50% search assignment, means 18 search planes.

1. If the enemy TF is positioned at 4 hexes distance (or less), you have almost a guaranteed chance of spotting it. Mind you if it contains a CV, enemy air patrols/strikes will probably announce their presence soon enough.[:)]

2. At 15 hexes distance, by sheer weight of plane search numbers involved, you have a reasonable chance of spotting the enemy. It would be an inefficient use of your search assets but in war, sometimes the better action is not the most efficient.

3. With that many available search planes you would be better off setting search arcs to ensure that at least all vectors are searched out. Becomes particularly useful when a search plane is shot down and the vector gap shows up. Not setting the vectors means you are dependent on the AI choosing the vectors for you. Setting up the vectors yourself also has the benefit that you determine where daylight searching begins. That may be a benefit.

Alfred

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

AW1Steve,

Three PBY squadrons, at 50% search assignment, means 18 search planes.

1. If the enemy TF is positioned at 4 hexes distance (or less), you have almost a guaranteed chance of spotting it. Mind you if it contains a CV, enemy air patrols/strikes will probably announce their presence soon enough.[:)]

2. At 15 hexes distance, by sheer weight of plane search numbers involved, you have a reasonable chance of spotting the enemy. It would be an inefficient use of your search assets but in war, sometimes the better action is not the most efficient.

3. With that many available search planes you would be better off setting search arcs to ensure that at least all vectors are searched out. Becomes particularly useful when a search plane is shot down and the vector gap shows up. Not setting the vectors means you are dependent on the AI choosing the vectors for you. Setting up the vectors yourself also has the benefit that you determine where daylight searching begins. That may be a benefit.

Alfred

Thanks. I can understand that sectors are more efficient , but I rather like the idea of an near inpenetrable wall of circles, from island to island, crossing the central Pacific, and having a pretty good chance of tracking anything passing in range (including a sub or two). [:D] Between the search planes, a line of picket subs, and and the odd picket of patrol craft , I think it can form a very strong early warning line. It's reassuring that it most likely will work. Basically in this case , I'm looking for reliability over efficientcy. But if you feel sector is better, I'll go with it. I'm assuming you feel that the previous "bugs" with using sector are now gone? [&:]

[Alfred]

I never set a search sector for planes operating off a ship. Kingfishers et al have a small range anyway and it falls within the 4 hex sub routine.

Search vectors therefore are only an issue for land based squadrons equipped with long range planes such as PBY. Yes I do think the earlier problem with using vectors has been addressed.

Basing 3 PBY squadrons at a single airfield is quite a concentration of your limited PBY assets. If the airfield is an island all by itself, say Wake, I can see the attractiveness of having 360 degree coverage. However if it is an overlapping island, 360 coverage may be overkill, particularly if you can avail yourself of the 4 hex blanket coverage using land based Kingfishers to supplement your PBY.

Ultimately it depends on whether the approach route is limited. For most overlapping islands in an island chain, there is a "rear area" which should be reasonably secure from enemy activity. In those circumstances, with limited air search assets, I would plump for setting vectors. It should be very rare to have to regularly reset those search vectors.

Alfred

[AW1Steve]

Thanks Alfred! [&o]

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

HansBolter,

You are almost certainly experiencing, with your 3 plane Dutch units, the code subset routine for naval searching up to 4 hexes. Within 4 hexes you get blanket area coverage although once again the more aircraft you have the better quality it is.

Search arcs is therefore really a consideration for >4 hex coverage, and for practical considerations most players will need a 6-8 hex early warning zone as a minimum. Bear in mind that as the range gets bigger the efficiency of the search diminishes to the point that searching out beyond 12 hexes becomes quite inefficient.

Alfred

I hear what you are saying Alfred, but my experience doesn't match up with it.

I'll try next week (currently no access to internet at home) to provide some screen shots that demonstrate that the Dutch FPs are finding every last enemy TF (or what certainly appears to be every last enemy TF) in thier vicinity out to ranges greater than 4 hexes while set to the default (no search arc selected).

I am aware that there is a significant drop off over 12 hexes, but I just don't experience the kind of drop off from 4-12 hexes you are stating.

[btd64]

Alfred, I follow what your saying. I do something very similar to it. and it seems to work well. as long as your crews dont get to fati.
cheers

[Jim Stevens]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

HansBolter,

You are almost certainly experiencing, with your 3 plane Dutch units, the code subset routine for naval searching up to 4 hexes. Within 4 hexes you get blanket area coverage although once again the more aircraft you have the better quality it is.

Search arcs is therefore really a consideration for >4 hex coverage, and for practical considerations most players will need a 6-8 hex early warning zone as a minimum. Bear in mind that as the range gets bigger the efficiency of the search diminishes to the point that searching out beyond 12 hexes becomes quite inefficient.

Alfred

OK, now we are getting closer to the answer I was looking for!

[Flicker]

Thank you Alfred, and thanks to Jim Stevens for asking.

I'm in the camp of 'trying to balance micromanagement and improving my gameplay'. Thus far, I've defaulted to random search arcs (which I would not do against a human player). I played around with setting search arcs, but never got comfortable with using them because I couldn't tell if I was doing it right. Perhaps it's time for me to try it again.

BTW does a random search arc only search sea hexes, or does it search land hexes too. For example does an air unit stationed at Los Angeles set to Naval Search or ASW search Mohave for ships / subs?

[spence]

On a perfectly clear day one can see 50 odd miles to the horizon from 3000 feet of altitude. A PBY or similar set to a 10 degree search at 16 hexes range will have to cover 120 odd miles of arc at the end of its outbound leg so the plane will simply not see a small portion of its search arc at all.

Given a bit of haze and/or the occasional cloud things quickly get worse. At 50 miles an individual ship will be all but invisible. An invasion armada probably might be seen but even a group of 20 ships will be hard to spot (they are painted so as not to stand out against the background after all).

In WW2 surface search radar helped some but even today radar is increasingly imperfect as range increases.

[spence]

I might add that the whole of air search parameters, methods, etc (and anything else pertaining)has been quantified and tabulated by the US Coast Guard in their Search and Rescue Manual. When I took the course in 197something it lasted two weeks and we only waded through the highlights but the info is there for anybody to use (at least it was unclassified in the olden days.)