Pondering on random events

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warspite1
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

European thoughts.

What if Hitler & Stalin actually liked one another?

What if Jodl had released the reserves according to plan.

In any event, a LOT of things went incredibly 'right' for the allies during that war.
Warspite1

A lot of things went incredibly right for the Axis at the start of the war too.

The Norwegian Campaign was close to being a disaster for the Germans. Admiralty interference saved at least one of the task forces from annihilation. Different decisions by one or two Norwegian commanders could have dramatically altered results too.

The German invasion of the Low Countries and France was a case of everything going right for the Axis - it needed to be too. With the forces at the disposal of each, it would be difficult to replicate that result if you replayed the attack 100 times.

As far as Hitler and Stalin liking each other is concerned, for me that is one "what if" too far. Sure, I could just about buy Hitler delaying Barbarossa in order to deal with Britain (via a Mediterranean strategy) but NOTHING (other than defeat in the west) was going to stop Hiter from undertaking the invasion of the Soviet Union. That was his raison d'être.
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by Endy »

ORIGINAL: warspite1

As far as Hitler and Stalin liking each other is concerned, for me that is one "what if" too far. Sure, I could just about buy Hitler delaying Barbarossa in order to deal with Britain (via a Mediterranean strategy) but NOTHING (other than defeat in the west) was going to stop Hiter from undertaking the invasion of the Soviet Union. That was his raison d'être.

And if he delayed too much then of course Stalin would attack first as it was already planned. It would begin one way or the other, just a matter who was ready first.
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warspite1
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by warspite1 »

..and back to the Pacific theatre.

What difference would a relatively small number of the tanks and aircraft sent to the Soviet Union have had in Malaya and Singapore?
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: warspite1

..and back to the Pacific theatre.

What difference would a relatively small number of the tanks and aircraft sent to the Soviet Union have had in Malaya and Singapore?
Might they have been sitting in a warehouse, still in transport-mode (not combat ready), like the yet-to-be-assembled Hurricanes?
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by wdolson »

The American supply of weapons to the USSR was very small in December 1941. A lot of them were stuff originally sent to the UK that the British redirected to the USSR.

The early P-40s going to the USSR in late 1941 may have had some impact in Malaysia. The US didn't have many tanks, for their own use or to give away, in late 1941. The most numerous were light tanks. Some American tanks were sent to North Africa by the end of 1941, which may have helped a little in Malaya, but Malaya isn't very good tank country. Ultimately the British needed more reliable troops than what they had. A large number of the Commonwealth troops were leaning towards Japan and didn't really want to fight.

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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: witpqs
ORIGINAL: warspite1

..and back to the Pacific theatre.

What difference would a relatively small number of the tanks and aircraft sent to the Soviet Union have had in Malaya and Singapore?
Might they have been sitting in a warehouse, still in transport-mode (not combat ready), like the yet-to-be-assembled Hurricanes?
warspite1

It depends on whether the British had too many squadrons and indeed armoured units in the UK. We are talking about late 1941. The considered opinion was that the Germans WERE going to defeat the Soviets - and if they did then they would soon be back knocking at the UK's door. So the "what if" is the gamble that some of those troops/airmen were released to the Far East.
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: wdolson

The American supply of weapons to the USSR was very small in December 1941. A lot of them were stuff originally sent to the UK that the British redirected to the USSR.

The early P-40s going to the USSR in late 1941 may have had some impact in Malaysia. The US didn't have many tanks, for their own use or to give away, in late 1941. The most numerous were light tanks. Some American tanks were sent to North Africa by the end of 1941, which may have helped a little in Malaya, but Malaya isn't very good tank country. Ultimately the British needed more reliable troops than what they had. A large number of the Commonwealth troops were leaning towards Japan and didn't really want to fight.

Bill
warspite1

I am not talking about US lend-lease, but British lend-lease - or more importantly British units still in the UK.


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warspite1
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by warspite1 »

Re the above does anyone have any stats on:

Autumn 1941

How many fighter squadrons were based in the UK?
How many tank brigades?

Need to allow for what was going on in the Middle East too.

Interesting.
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by wdolson »

ORIGINAL: wdolson

The American supply of weapons to the USSR was very small in December 1941. A lot of them were stuff originally sent to the UK that the British redirected to the USSR.

The early P-40s going to the USSR in late 1941 may have had some impact in Malaysia. The US didn't have many tanks, for their own use or to give away, in late 1941. The most numerous were light tanks. Some American tanks were sent to North Africa by the end of 1941, which may have helped a little in Malaya, but Malaya isn't very good tank country. Ultimately the British needed more reliable troops than what they had. A large number of the Commonwealth troops were leaning towards Japan and didn't really want to fight.

Bill
warspite1
ORIGINAL: warspite1
I am not talking about US lend-lease, but British lend-lease - or more importantly British units still in the UK.

The US did not start direct lend lease to the USSR until sometime in 1942. FDR had pushed through lend lease indirectly through the UK, but that bill didn't pass until November 1941. The first aircraft sent from Britain (P-40Bs) did not arrive until after Pearl Harbor.

The British also had their hands full in North Africa. All their best units and almost all their armor were there. The UK also needed to keep a large number of first line aircraft at home to make sure the Germans didn't try to invade again. The Far East got what could be spared, which wasn't much. If they sent much more to Malaya, it would probably have weakened the situation in North Africa which was tenuous by late 1941. Essentially the British Empire was strung out to its maximum and it wasn't prepared for a 3 front war. It was barely holding together on two fronts (home and the Med).

What tipped the situation in the Far East for the British was the Indians throwing in with them in exchange for post war promises of freedom and the Japanese showing their hand as far worse masters than the British. The Japanese had detailed intel on the positions of all Commonwealth assets at the start of the war because there were a lot of sympathetic Burmese, Malaysians, and Indians willing to sell out their masters for the good of the Co-Prosperity Sphere.

Of course massive weaponry along with US forces arriving in India helped a lot too.

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warspite1
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by warspite1 »

I think our last two posts crossed.

I will do some digging on the numbers based in the UK. I definitely read recently that the British probably left too much in the UK (of course that is an opinion and given with hindsight as we know the Germans don't beat the Soviets!).

The same is said of the RN and the number of battleships maintained in home waters was too conservative for the actual threat posed (I think that was O'Hara but I may be wrong).
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by wdolson »

For the public's morale if nothing else, they needed to keep a strong force at home. The Battle of Britain followed by the Blitz was very hard on the public. The admiralty was also paranoid about raiders getting out into the Atlantic. Especially the Tirpitz and to a lesser extent the Gniesnau and Scharnhorst, as long as those ships were in a position to be a threat, the RN based an overwhelming force in home waters to counter them.

The battleship fleet was of little use anywhere else anyway. The Med was a high threat zone from the air and they had enough BBs there to counter the Italians for most of the war and they really weren't of much use in the Far East.

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warspite1
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by warspite1 »

I do not think that public morale would be affected if say a few squadrons of Spitfires* were sent to the Far East - would they even know? But the loss of Malaya and - more importantly - the fall of Singapore was a real dampener in terms of morale! Hindsight of course.

* assuming they had them spare.

Re the battleships, I'm glad you said most of the war! There were occasions where the RN was without any battleships in the Med - and late 1941 was particularly bad for the RN in that - and just about every - theatre. Didn't one convoy contain the de-militarised WWI KGV or Centurion to try and fool the Italians into thinking there were was a battleship protecting a convoy to Malta? A battleship or two would have been handy at the 2nd Battle of Sirte.

If Cunningham had had some proper battleships (HMS Warspite aside) he may have hurt the Regia Marina early in the war - but sadly the 21-knot R-class relics he was given could not bring the RM to battle at Calabria nor Spartivento (although this was 1940 and not the period we are discussing).

I agree that battleships in the Far East - without carrier support - was simply asking for trouble - and December 1941 of course was confirmation of that.

No, the what-if all hinges on the extent to which the UK had trained fighter and armoured formations (would not necessarily need to be a full division - an armoured or tank brigade may have sufficed) in the UK that could have been sent to the Far East.

Re Malaya not being tank country I agree, but what effect their presence may have had on both the CW troops and the enemy is of course unknown - but likely only to have been positive for the former and the opposite for the latter.


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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by dcpollay »

Late to the game, but...What if the Japanese had not turned around and gone home after Samar?
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by HansBolter »

ORIGINAL: Colonel Mustard

Late to the game, but...What if the Japanese had not turned around and gone home after Samar?

What if Halsey hadn't taken the bait....what if he had actually formed and detached TF 34....the world wonders!
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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by Banzan »

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Now that would make a substantial subplot in the movie Midway! [:D]

Why not combine all of it?

Bismark, Tirpitz and some crusiers like Prinz Eugen bombarding Midway to support the japanese attacks, and getting sunk by the USS Nimitz coming from the future - led by Ben Affleck. [:D]
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RE: Pondering on random events

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...led by Ben Affleck which after sinking the German Kriegsmarine (except Bismarck which is scuttled by her crew) scares away the Japanese with a display of full frontal...
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RE: Pondering on random events

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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by geofflambert »

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

What others come to mind? It is this "What if...?" that intrigues me about this theater.


What if Tokyo Rose had been a guy in drag?

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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by geofflambert »

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

What others come to mind? It is this "What if...?" that intrigues me about this theater.



What if Rosie the Riveter had been a welder?

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RE: Pondering on random events

Post by Insano »

ORIGINAL: kaleun

As far as what if the US torpedoes had worked, that is easy to simulate[:D]

What if the German torpedoes had worked at the beginning of the war in 1939-1940?
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