Finally had time to watch the replay. Looks like the whole IJN except for KB and the Mogamis is in the Arafura Sea.
Here are my Word notes for the turn. Note the strange CAP settings on his part:
---Liberators hit Lunga alright, Nicks on night CAP
---Tojos on night CAP at Magwe, a couple Oil hits
---Some Liberators lost to flak at Magwe
---CA Furutaka, CA Kako, CL Nagara, CL Isuzu and 4 DDs (Fubukis) scuffle with DDs Ellet and Perkins near Gove/Wessel. Not much happens either way.
---Ise, Hyuga, and Fuso with 3 DDs sink the damaged Radford near Groote Eylandt
---32 Zeroes from Lae sweep Portland Roads, CAP of 77 beats them away pretty well.
---29 Oscars try next, same thing. 61 CAP still up
---45 Zeroes over the Merauke invasion TF, big 4E strike loses a bunch of its Wildcat escorts, but LSD Shinshu Maru is hit with a bomb, fires started.
---6 B-17s miss Chokai, Atago. So, another SCTF
---8 Liberators meet 8 Zeroes over a smaller TF NW of MKB, an AK and CA Aoba are both missed
---DD Fumizuki is hit by a bomb outside Wessel, fires started
---3 B-25s shot down at Merauke
---6 B-17s miss
---ONE JAKE IS ON CAP OVER MKB. 6 Liberators plant a bomb on Unyo, she’s on fire.
---7 Judys sink and cripple 2 LSTs outside Horn/Portland…thought I ordered them back?
---8 more 4Es strike MKB, no hits. Unyo still on fire.
---6 B-25Ds plant a bomb each on 2 AKs NW of MKB. Looks like the Shipping Engr Rgt. The ships won’t sink, but they’re damaged.
---3 Liberators miss Aoba
---6 more try for the big amphibs, shoot down some Zeroes and miss
---4 more B-17Es wear down the CAP, shoot down some Zeroes
---PM phase – 16 Zeroes from Buna fly to die at Portland Roads
---5 Navy Liberators hit AMC Asaka Maru, destroying one of her 8cm guns and setting her on fire. Wildcat escorts lost
---3 B-26s fight leaky CAP over a DD outside Groote Eylandt.
---4 B-17s go to the same place, miss Takao
---8 Liberators strike MKB, meet 19 Zeroes and 2 Jakes on CAP (interesting CAP settings?), they miss.
---6 more Liberators go for the followup TF, miss.
---6 B-25D1’s try for Furutaka and Kako outside Wessel, miss
---9 B-24s miss Asaka Maru, also sight Mutsu
---8 Liberators miss MKB, only 2 Jakes on CAP now?
---4 Liberators miss an xAP at Buna
---6 B-17s try to bomb Hosho, Unyo. Miss. 1 Jake on CAP
---S-32 misses an E at Buna, sights another
---Trincomalee AF to 9, Kohima AF to 6
Had an Australian Light AA unit on those LSTs. Bofors and Motorized Support. He got 13 LCU VPs for sinking one and damaging the other, but nothing I can't replace. I must have forgotten to turn them back to Normanton.
So not all of his A6M5 losses were to MKB, in fact most were not. However, he should be suffering a bunch of damaged planes. He needs to stay around for at least one more day for this.
Unfortunately, the presence of Mutsu in or with the amphibious TF for 2nd Division means I can't send in my cruisers. I'll continue to try the LBA approach. B-25 and Wildcat losses hurt a little, but 4E losses are fine (although I'm expecting a boatload of damaged planes). His other 2 SCTFs, the Takaos (probably the same TF that was based at Soera a while back) and the 3 older BBs, are between my cruisers and Groote Eylandt. I can escape them easily.
He has another covering force, probably of CA/DD, near the Shipping Engineer Regiment's transports.
163 devices of the 16th Aus Bde airlifted from Merauke today. 246 remain, plus 13 Motorized Support that I can't airlift out. Only 11 out of 125 devices of the paratroop regiment were lifted out by Catalinas at Horn Island. So it looks like I'll be able to fly out the rest of the Aussies at the least, and about half of the paratroopers.
He didn't land today, so I could have 2 more days to airlift out.