Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

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Lowpe
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I'd rather save the HI than build RO-boats.

HI normally isn't a problem, and even RO boats have their uses if for nothing else than as a picket.

RE the super heavies: given the recent thread about how worthless they are, perhaps not building them is the smart thing to do?

I am playing MM in a very slow downfall game (between 1-4 turns a week). I will say I find that MM seems to throw away ships and planes in what seems almost haphazard manner. Things I would never do...but it does keep you guessing at what his purpose is.

Having said that, I think the short term fog of war on the Japanese side is really bad...MM often thinks he has inflicted grievous hurt when in reality the damage was almost meaningless.

He is a good opponent, and I am preparing him mentally for the butt kicking you are going to do to him for the rest of the game. [:D]


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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I'd rather save the HI than build RO-boats.

HI normally isn't a problem, and even RO boats have their uses if for nothing else than as a picket.

RE the super heavies: given the recent thread about how worthless they are, perhaps not building them is the smart thing to do?

I am playing MM in a very slow downfall game (between 1-4 turns a week). I will say I find that MM seems to throw away ships and planes in what seems almost haphazard manner. Things I would never do...but it does keep you guessing at what his purpose is.

Having said that, I think the short term fog of war on the Japanese side is really bad...MM often thinks he has inflicted grievous hurt when in reality the damage was almost meaningless.

He is a good opponent, and I am preparing him mentally for the butt kicking you are going to do to him for the rest of the game. [:D]

But worth accelerating? Why? The only semi-tenuous reasoning I can think of is that it's better to get the subs out early, before Allied ASW gets too good, but he hasn't sunk anything in a real combat area via sub in a long time. The RO-102 finished off New Mexico, but that could've been any old I-boat in that spot instead (he's flooded the east coast of Australia with subs). Most recently, I've sunk or crippled 3 or 4 good I-boats for no gain on his part, so I'm not sure it's even possible to get more subs out before the ASW gets good. The late-42/early-43 upgrades are pretty much all the Allies need to sink subs with ships.

Not building the big ones should simply mean the ability to accelerate all the CVs and whatnot, though this is a Scen 1 game so there are 3 fewer Unryus, right? And assuming no Shinano build. Still... I'd have to do some math if I wanted to figure it out. But if he expanded NavSY in order to accelerate all these, I'd say he made a mistake.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Quixote »

though this is a Scen 1 game so there are 3 fewer Unryus, right?

There are no additional CVs given in Scenario 2, Unryu class or otherwise. Quite a few other advantages, but not this one.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Quixote
though this is a Scen 1 game so there are 3 fewer Unryus, right?

There are no additional CVs given in Scenario 2, Unryu class or otherwise. Quite a few other advantages, but not this one.

Somebody had mentioned it in another thread recently. I wasn't sure. Thanks.

That just makes this even more of a weird decision, though. Assume that 466 points are opened up on Day 1 from not building either dreadnought. I don't think he accelerated the RO-boats immediately, but he definitely accelerated some of the I-boats as I saw I-32 at least 3 months ahead of when I received her in my game (on normal, or slightly delayed, schedule). I think Oyodo and these 2 Aganos were accelerated early. I know from SIGINT and email confirmation that Junyo, at least, wasn't accelerated. I think Ryuho was accelerated, from emails after I mentioned receiving a Fletcher in early fall of 42 and he mentioned receiving a CV. It wasn't anywhere near October yet. The CV/CVL acceleration I can understand. Even the Aganos.

Oyodo and the RO-boats confuse me, though.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Amoral »

Oyodo has Radar in her initial configuration, and if you accelerate her she is the first boat in the water with Radar. A useful addition to the main KB.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by SqzMyLemon »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Oyodo and the RO-boats confuse me, though.

It could be something as simple as using up excess naval shipyard points. I know in my first game as Japan I expanded some naval shipyard capacity and had a large surplus in 1943, so I started accelerating anything with a gun on it to use the points up.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Amoral

Oyodo has Radar in her initial configuration, and if you accelerate her she is the first boat in the water with Radar. A useful addition to the main KB.

Well, the Shokakus get radar in 6/42... I could see Oyodo being a "radar whore" for an SCTF, I suppose. Or a search boat. With only front turrets, she isn't that useful in a fight, though. You can also convert the Mogami in 7/42, though I'm not sure why one would do that.

The Tone class get radar in 2/43, which isn't much later than an accelerated Oyodo (which burns 82 NavSY points extra per turn).

Akitsuki DDs, which are common KB escorts, get radar in 1/43 - even sooner and even closer to an accelerated Oyodo date.

It should be noted that all of these radars are "F" mounted, rather than "A" like it is on the CVs. Presumably an "all" mount is more effective.
ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Oyodo and the RO-boats confuse me, though.

It could be something as simple as using up excess naval shipyard points. I know in my first game as Japan I expanded some naval shipyard capacity and had a large surplus in 1943, so I started accelerating anything with a gun on it to use the points up.

The entire concept of extra Naval points confuses me [8D]. Building ships simply for the sake of using up points is inefficient - I should want to build the ship for its own sake, not because I have extra money to spend on it. May as well save the HI (even though we all suspect that supply is the real constraint) than burn it on NavSY that I don't need.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by SqzMyLemon »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

The entire concept of extra Naval points confuses me [8D]. Building ships simply for the sake of using up points is inefficient...

Like I said, my first game, would I do the same now, of course not. However inefficient it may have been, you've already spent the HI, so you might as well use them up. Accelerating ships makes complete sense then.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lokasenna »

Caught in a quandary this turn. I made the mistake, 2 turns ago, of turning on automatic upgrade for my CV groups. Last turn, I finally moved them to an airfield capable of upgrading them, however it was with the intention of possibly staging to an action area...

Now I have my chance, and I could do a full speed sprint to a decent location (as shown by the highlighted green hex), but I have 2 out of 5 CV fighter groups with fully disabled Hellcats.

Hurray!


He appears fixated on re-invading Merauke. Again. I assume for yet more LCU VPs. I have 1.5 Australian Brigades there, with a light base force. Forts just hit 2. Supplies are tight but manageable. The yellow ! should go away this turn as I transferred the aircraft away.

I'll probably hang back with my cruisers and see if they're detected in another turn. I have good LBA at the AF9 Portland Roads, as well as AF6 at Normanton and AF8 at Coen (with 180 support). I'll set my P-38s (some of which got butchered last turn on escort against MKB CAP) to LRCAP the cruisers and hope it's enough.

He may pull back. He's sighted the cruisers a little, and had them sighted good 2 days ago so he should know what they are. He mentioned that he smelled trap in his email with this turn. It was an unintentional trap, mostly I was seeing how far up the NE Australian coast I could bring my CVs without them being detected. Yorktown/Saratoga have DL 2/2 this turn, the other TF is not detected. I'll hang tight at Cairns this turn, dropping some ships out of the TF to try to drop my DL some.

I would have pulled the trigger on sending the CVs if not for the Hellcats. Bummer. He's trying to cover the invasion TFs (45 Zeroes on LRCAP over the cruisers this turn) as well as MKB. He only had 20-30 Zeroes assigned to escort duty. I could have butchered his MKB, I think.

He appears to have focused all of his naval search in this area as well. I'm looking for other areas in which I can take advantage of this. Previously-covered zones appear to be lacking their search now, as my probing TFs are going undetected for 3+ days now.

Going to finish up these orders and send the turn back.



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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lokasenna »

Finally got some usable SIGINT this turn:

7/7th Shipping Engineer Regiment is loaded on AK Kyusyu Maru moving to Merauke.

4/2nd Division is loaded on a Yusen A class AK moving to Merauke.


I calculated it up. I have 234 LCU VPs at Merauke. I can airlift most of it out in 2 days, so I'm going to do so. No point risking them, and withdrawing them will lower his risk/reward calculus. He can't land completely in 1 day, not when he's 5 hexes out, but he could land enough to take the base 2 days from now. I'll suffer some destroyed devices, but nothing serious. Will prioritize the Aussies, and then the paratroops. The 224th USN Base Force will likely die.


I just don't see how I can sink the amphibs with my fighter groups screwup last turn. 2 days minimum before I'm willing to risk a fight, probably more like 3. I have all of my LBA at Portland Roads, some 200 bombers (mostly 4E but also some B-25 attack bombers), on naval attack at 2000 feet. Modicum of escorting Corsairs/P-38s (with P-40s and P-400s flying LRCAP on my cruisers).

Also have ~100 fighters at Horn Island with 60+ Strafe who will attempt to sink ships at Merauke (set to range 4) with 500-lb bombs.


He's dangling so far out on a limb here. Stupid me and the auto upgrades 2 turns ago. If I'd turned them off, however, I'd be going into this situation with mostly Wildcats on board.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Mike McCreery »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Finally got some usable SIGINT this turn:

7/7th Shipping Engineer Regiment is loaded on AK Kyusyu Maru moving to Merauke.

4/2nd Division is loaded on a Yusen A class AK moving to Merauke.


I calculated it up. I have 234 LCU VPs at Merauke. I can airlift most of it out in 2 days, so I'm going to do so. No point risking them, and withdrawing them will lower his risk/reward calculus. He can't land completely in 1 day, not when he's 5 hexes out, but he could land enough to take the base 2 days from now. I'll suffer some destroyed devices, but nothing serious. Will prioritize the Aussies, and then the paratroops. The 224th USN Base Force will likely die.


I just don't see how I can sink the amphibs with my fighter groups screwup last turn. 2 days minimum before I'm willing to risk a fight, probably more like 3. I have all of my LBA at Portland Roads, some 200 bombers (mostly 4E but also some B-25 attack bombers), on naval attack at 2000 feet. Modicum of escorting Corsairs/P-38s (with P-40s and P-400s flying LRCAP on my cruisers).

Also have ~100 fighters at Horn Island with 60+ Strafe who will attempt to sink ships at Merauke (set to range 4) with 500-lb bombs.


He's dangling so far out on a limb here. Stupid me and the auto upgrades 2 turns ago. If I'd turned them off, however, I'd be going into this situation with mostly Wildcats on board.

Dont beat yourself up too bad. Whatever he puts on Merauke will have to be evacuated eventually or die in place on his side. If Horn Island is not or will not be in jeopardy it is a lousy base for him to hold and re-supply.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Finally got some usable SIGINT this turn:

7/7th Shipping Engineer Regiment is loaded on AK Kyusyu Maru moving to Merauke.

4/2nd Division is loaded on a Yusen A class AK moving to Merauke.


I calculated it up. I have 234 LCU VPs at Merauke. I can airlift most of it out in 2 days, so I'm going to do so. No point risking them, and withdrawing them will lower his risk/reward calculus. He can't land completely in 1 day, not when he's 5 hexes out, but he could land enough to take the base 2 days from now. I'll suffer some destroyed devices, but nothing serious. Will prioritize the Aussies, and then the paratroops. The 224th USN Base Force will likely die.


I just don't see how I can sink the amphibs with my fighter groups screwup last turn. 2 days minimum before I'm willing to risk a fight, probably more like 3. I have all of my LBA at Portland Roads, some 200 bombers (mostly 4E but also some B-25 attack bombers), on naval attack at 2000 feet. Modicum of escorting Corsairs/P-38s (with P-40s and P-400s flying LRCAP on my cruisers).

Also have ~100 fighters at Horn Island with 60+ Strafe who will attempt to sink ships at Merauke (set to range 4) with 500-lb bombs.


He's dangling so far out on a limb here. Stupid me and the auto upgrades 2 turns ago. If I'd turned them off, however, I'd be going into this situation with mostly Wildcats on board.

Dont beat yourself up too bad. Whatever he puts on Merauke will have to be evacuated eventually or die in place on his side. If Horn Island is not or will not be in jeopardy it is a lousy base for him to hold and re-supply.

I'm hoping so. It'll be awful hard for him to get 2nd Division out of there, even with AKs and Naval Support. I should be able to wear him down for a few days with LBA at least, and if he sticks around I could really pound him.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by HansBolter »

What is the status of your CV fighter groups now?
My experience seems to indicate that CV AV support works miracles compared to land based AV support.
I upgrade a CV squadron and they are 60%-80%+ operational the next day.
I would expect that you would be fully operational after a two day delay.
Hans

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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

What is the status of your CV fighter groups now?
My experience seems to indicate that CV AV support works miracles compared to land based AV support.
I upgrade a CV squadron and they are 60%-80%+ operational the next day.
I would expect that you would be fully operational after a two day delay.

14 ready on Yorktown, 13 ready on Saratoga. I was going off of the estimated delay, which showed about 2/3 of the planes to be ready in 3 days. If I get up to 24-25 or so on those two decks, I think I'll send them in.

Bloody day on April 30. Battleships sighted! I haven't run the replay yet, I just see that I lost my first Fletcher, DD Radford (damaged by MKB bombs yesterday) to a 36cm gun. So, battleships. Glad I didn't send in the cruisers.

Here are the air losses on the day. I'm hoping that these turn out to be from MKB, that would really swing things in my favor on a CV battle.

His ground losses would be at Lunga, where I tried to crater the airfield again. I believe my Wildcat losses are on escort from Portland Roads, along with the air/flak losses for my B-24Ds and B-25D1s. The total air loss profile looks like his fighters were lost on escort duty for strikes, as I put up a ton of LRCAP on my cruisers, which are at DL 10/10 and unscathed.

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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lokasenna »

Finally had time to watch the replay. Looks like the whole IJN except for KB and the Mogamis is in the Arafura Sea.

Here are my Word notes for the turn. Note the strange CAP settings on his part:
---Liberators hit Lunga alright, Nicks on night CAP
---Tojos on night CAP at Magwe, a couple Oil hits
---Some Liberators lost to flak at Magwe
---CA Furutaka, CA Kako, CL Nagara, CL Isuzu and 4 DDs (Fubukis) scuffle with DDs Ellet and Perkins near Gove/Wessel. Not much happens either way.
---Ise, Hyuga, and Fuso with 3 DDs sink the damaged Radford near Groote Eylandt
---32 Zeroes from Lae sweep Portland Roads, CAP of 77 beats them away pretty well.
---29 Oscars try next, same thing. 61 CAP still up
---45 Zeroes over the Merauke invasion TF, big 4E strike loses a bunch of its Wildcat escorts, but LSD Shinshu Maru is hit with a bomb, fires started.
---6 B-17s miss Chokai, Atago. So, another SCTF
---8 Liberators meet 8 Zeroes over a smaller TF NW of MKB, an AK and CA Aoba are both missed
---DD Fumizuki is hit by a bomb outside Wessel, fires started
---3 B-25s shot down at Merauke
---6 B-17s miss
---ONE JAKE IS ON CAP OVER MKB. 6 Liberators plant a bomb on Unyo, she’s on fire.
---7 Judys sink and cripple 2 LSTs outside Horn/Portland…thought I ordered them back?
---8 more 4Es strike MKB, no hits. Unyo still on fire.
---6 B-25Ds plant a bomb each on 2 AKs NW of MKB. Looks like the Shipping Engr Rgt. The ships won’t sink, but they’re damaged.
---3 Liberators miss Aoba
---6 more try for the big amphibs, shoot down some Zeroes and miss
---4 more B-17Es wear down the CAP, shoot down some Zeroes
---PM phase – 16 Zeroes from Buna fly to die at Portland Roads
---5 Navy Liberators hit AMC Asaka Maru, destroying one of her 8cm guns and setting her on fire. Wildcat escorts lost
---3 B-26s fight leaky CAP over a DD outside Groote Eylandt.
---4 B-17s go to the same place, miss Takao
---8 Liberators strike MKB, meet 19 Zeroes and 2 Jakes on CAP (interesting CAP settings?), they miss.
---6 more Liberators go for the followup TF, miss.
---6 B-25D1’s try for Furutaka and Kako outside Wessel, miss
---9 B-24s miss Asaka Maru, also sight Mutsu
---8 Liberators miss MKB, only 2 Jakes on CAP now?
---4 Liberators miss an xAP at Buna
---6 B-17s try to bomb Hosho, Unyo. Miss. 1 Jake on CAP
---S-32 misses an E at Buna, sights another
---Trincomalee AF to 9, Kohima AF to 6

Had an Australian Light AA unit on those LSTs. Bofors and Motorized Support. He got 13 LCU VPs for sinking one and damaging the other, but nothing I can't replace. I must have forgotten to turn them back to Normanton.

So not all of his A6M5 losses were to MKB, in fact most were not. However, he should be suffering a bunch of damaged planes. He needs to stay around for at least one more day for this.

Unfortunately, the presence of Mutsu in or with the amphibious TF for 2nd Division means I can't send in my cruisers. I'll continue to try the LBA approach. B-25 and Wildcat losses hurt a little, but 4E losses are fine (although I'm expecting a boatload of damaged planes). His other 2 SCTFs, the Takaos (probably the same TF that was based at Soera a while back) and the 3 older BBs, are between my cruisers and Groote Eylandt. I can escape them easily.

He has another covering force, probably of CA/DD, near the Shipping Engineer Regiment's transports.

163 devices of the 16th Aus Bde airlifted from Merauke today. 246 remain, plus 13 Motorized Support that I can't airlift out. Only 11 out of 125 devices of the paratroop regiment were lifted out by Catalinas at Horn Island. So it looks like I'll be able to fly out the rest of the Aussies at the least, and about half of the paratroopers.

He didn't land today, so I could have 2 more days to airlift out.

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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lokasenna »

Still no KB. This isn't an upgrade cycle time for them. I wonder if he's just keeping them somewhere in case my CVs show up? I haven't revealed any of my APAs yet, so I think he is expecting a Pacific invasion somewhere.

The destroyer escorts still at Cairns have some DL on them this turn, but no DL on Cairns itself. Only 3/3, and on the other TF this time.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lowpe »

Interesting turn. Bold commitment for May 1 1943 for Japan.

Could the fighter coverage have been lured away from the carriers? Why else would they not fly? Morale? Hard to believe.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Interesting turn. Bold commitment for May 1 1943 for Japan.

Could the fighter coverage have been lured away from the carriers? Why else would they not fly? Morale? Hard to believe.

My only guess is that they're set to a high range - 5 or 6. And so they don't always cover the CVs. He's trying to cover way too many TFs. He really needed KB to cover this completely. That said, my fighter screwup means I haven't been able to capitalize really.

If I hadn't needed to get my CAs/CLs out of dodge via the Torres Strait, I would actually send my CVs in this turn. I don't believe he's down to 22 fighters on MKB, but they're definitely very worn down. At least 1/3 damaged or destroyed last turn, I'd think. Even with Yorktown and Saratoga under strength, I'll take those odds.

But moving them up would put them right in the path of the BBs and CAs, should he choose to try to chase down my CAs/CLs on their way through. I'll wait a turn and see what's happening. Yes, I have 2 South Dakotas and 2 North Carolinas with my CVs, but I'd rather keep them in the CV TF(s) as bomb magnets than send them in as screeners.

My CVEs finish upgrades at Brisbane this turn also, so they'll start sailing up in case he really sticks around, and in case KB shows up out of the blue. I have decent naval search going out to the NE as well as the NW, plus subs between Rabaul/Wewak/Solomons and Truk.
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Yes, I have 2 South Dakotas and 2 North Carolinas with my CVs, but I'd rather keep them in the CV TF(s) as bomb magnets than send them in as screeners.

You know, you will lose those battleships don't you? It is your fate in this game to lose a battleship with each encounter. Call it karma, or bad luck, one of those guys will go down.[:D]

Double check their orders!
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RE: Headhunter - Lokasenna (A) vs. mind_messing (J) - No MM yet

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Yes, I have 2 South Dakotas and 2 North Carolinas with my CVs, but I'd rather keep them in the CV TF(s) as bomb magnets than send them in as screeners.

You know, you will lose those battleships don't you? It is your fate in this game to lose a battleship with each encounter. Call it karma, or bad luck, one of those guys will go down.[:D]

Double check their orders!

Nah, only the old ones. The new ones go more than 6 hexes.

Looks like he's running away. No time to do much with this right now, have to go to a meeting.

I want to try to sink the Takaos. I'll put in orders for the CVs to jet up past Horn Island, and my cruisers will come back around at full speed also with a big patrol radius. He'll probably see the CVs when I do this. That's fine.

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