Global War : a Japanese AAR

[yvesp]

The turn ends very quickly, and indeed Japan produces less. This is mitigated by the fact that little oil was used, so some oil can be put to production ; but not too much : reserves are low.

Japan builds:
- 1 territorial
- 1 garrison
- 1 mech div
- 3 convoys
- 3 carrier planes
- 1 battleship (infrastructures)
- 1 Nav3

China builds
- 1 infantry
- 1 inf div

The Commonwealth builds:
- 1 factory
- 1 carrier (superstructures)
- 3 carrier planes (1 at 0 cost)
- 1 Lnd4
- 3 pilots
- 2 Ftr2
- 3 cruisers(superstructures)
- 1 battleship (infrastructures)
- 1 transport (infrastructures)
- 1 mechanized
- 1 territorial
- 1 inf div
- 1 garrison

The USA build:
- 1 transport (superstructures)
- 7 carrier planes
- 5 pilots
- 2 subs (infrastructures)
- 5 light carriers (infrastuctres)
- 2 cruisers (infrastures)
- 2 motorized
- 1 mech div
- 2 inf div
- 1 artillery
- 1 offensive
- 2BP saved for France (CW stops)


This time, Italy was conquered.
Japan recovered a good battleship! One still wonders how it went from the repair yards in La Spezia to reach Yokohama...

[yvesp]

The situation in south China.
The Nationalists have been able to rebuild most of their army, with is more packed because it has less territorry to protect. They have even been able to use the numerous naval/combined Japanese actions in the Pacific to block the access to one of the southern resources.

[yvesp]

The situation in north China.

The previous summer offensive has brought the Japanese army almost to the doors of Sian. But it is not yet conquered.

Note that even though that would be usefull, the Japanese have had to restrain the strategic bombardments on the Chinese factories : too expensive in bad weather as far as oil goes, compared to the expected return.

Also note that since the start of the war, only one 0-rating partisan has been seen in China.

[yvesp]

Yet another group of Pacific islands that falls to the Japanese.

[yvesp]

Long delay because I must deal with the conquest of Italy bug.

I have to remember which hex should be Italian and which should be in supply, and imagine a plan for action with the allies. I also have to estimate where a German unit would have stationned if it had indeed been able to move normally rather than move to reestablish supply...

This is tricky, because most of Northern Italy looks OoS, but indeed if the conquest had happened as expected, Germany would have railed moved a HQ in Northern Italy, and most (but not all) would be in supply.

Once I'be worked this out, I'll have to make the paradrops/invasions/transports that I can and want to do with the allies, and compute by hand the precise odds at which the combats should happen. It's absolute hell, but I cannot avoid doing this without handling a large free lunch to Germany, giving it the time to secure the whole place.

Worst will be the next impulses, where Germany will have disrupted units that should not be... So Germnay won't be able to move them where necessary... (I just need a pill now...)

[yvesp]

Finally I managed it.

A reasonnably complex action from the allies.

- A para in Malta is convoyed to Taranto where an air transport sits idle
- The British marine unit in Taranto is joined by the American marine unit in Greece and they invade south of Venise, with the support of both Lancaster
- The two US air transport paradrop the US para west of the invasion hex

The hexes were notably chosen because there was a very reasonable chance that even with no bug, they were unlikely to contain a unit, and both are within a ZOC, thus increasing the notional value. They were also chosen because of course, the allies intend to bypass Rome as a nasty fighting place : the front line is small and gaining ground there is awfull...

[yvesp]

The first combat is easy with a 15.

I count the use of one of the two bombers that were sent back in Germany because of the bug. Since the allies have few fighers, it would have succeeded.

The odds are 11-4, which is better than +5. With the other bonus (+3 for para and disorganized), the combat is an automatic success.

[yvesp]

I had to redo that combat because I forgot the ground support...

The odds at +12.8 are reestimated at +8.53, considering that the defense should have been 6 and not 4 (use of the second German bomber.)

The roll of 13 is enough for a success.

The allies were lucky ; but even a medium success would have likely forced a German retreat ; especially considering that the next impulse weather turns out to be storm.

The British fleet was necessary to achieve that success, but its use in the Mediterranean will now not be needed as much. The Japanese know that it has at best one more task before being freed: an attack on France. Which might possibly be conducted with reduced forces: some battleships and cruisers. It it thus expected that the British carriers will soon make their apperance in the Indian ocean. This will spell the end of expansion for Japan, especially considering that the US fleet will again be formidable with the incoming reinforcements.

[yvesp]

In China, nothing happens ; the weather is too bad. Indeed, in Russia nothing happens either.

In the Pacific, the Japanese shuffles some troops around : Two marine divisions are too far and are unsupplied : it will require more convoys, and the lines become stretched. It is time to turn west, before the British bring back their forces. The objectives are limited : recapture the oil fields, conquer Brunei and other commonwealth possesions which have been left alone but could later help the allies advance ; possibly conquer Singapore.

The USA have limited means to oppose this expansion. They won't risk again their carriers, and they are very busy with the Italian campaign. They react to the Japanese, trying to disrupt their convoys and naval moves. There is yet no strategy to advance ; there won't be before offensives are on the way: advancing is too risky, and conquests must be done in the same turn as the move to preserve the few marines that are available in the pacific. So, the fleet is mostly sitting idle.

Some action, but usually fruitless: the Japanese navs are present everywhere and guard well.

[yvesp]

As a result, even rather powerfull task forces are forced back. Carriers would be necessary ; at this stage, it seems that some light carriers are missing in the US war machine.

[yvesp]

It seems I cannot post.

Edit: oh, so when the message is meaningless, I can!

Lets try again, but I lost the post with the production.

Overall, the Japanese laid down 3 carriers (2 infra, 1 super), while the US and Commonwealth combined built 10. That's a bad omen ; but they won't be here anytime soon...

Other units were built in about the same proportions as the last turn, and the US built an offensive, while the Russians did the same.

[yvesp]

The allies are lucky ; they wrestle the initiative even though Germnay asks for a reroll.

In addition the weather turns unexpectedly good for the whole planet!

Russia uses it offensive with Zhukov, destroys two infantries but fails to destroy Guderian in a huge panzer battle.

In the west, the allies advance their planning and invade France with minor, but still serious forces. They takes Germany off guard, as there are not yet enough units in France for a serious counterattack. They were planned to come this turn. In particular, the HQ that had to be railed in Italy last turn to ensure supply in north Italy is missing : a lot of places are out of supply, making invasion a joke in these places.

Also, the situation in Italy used up too many reinforcements ; German forces are a bit stretched now that the Italians are out!

In Italy, the USA even managed to stretch the front line by moving their marine to Trieste and disembarking an armored HQ. This cuts one line for reinforcements, and extends a bit more the German lines.

This is not at all to the liking of Japan which now ses that if that invasion takes root (and there are excellent reasons to believe it might) then the Commonwealth fleet, barred a minimum number of old battleships, will be mostly free to move east.

Overall, that impulse is extremely bad for Germany, not as far as damage goes, but because they just cannot face three threats simultaneously. The lesser is certainly the Russian offensive, the greater the invasion of France.

Note that the prepositionned German bomber wasn't used in defense, because the British carrier in the bay of Biscay would figh at +4, and even if it succeeded, it would not prevent the invasion.

These last impulses show the usefullness of having put the priority on special forces rather than standard infantries/armored units. HQ disembark simply from transports, paratroops and marines are hard to predict.

[AllenK]

"paratroops and marines are hard to predict"

I think that is key to their value. They force the opposition into some difficult choices. Do they try and defend everything and likely defend nothing or try and second guess and defend some key points. Either way, they tie up a disproportionate number of units attempting to guard against them. I'm relieved once they are committed and you know where they are. I think the best defence is having some of your own. "Anything you can do, I can do better..."

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: AllenK

"paratroops and marines are hard to predict"

I think that is key to their value. They force the opposition into some difficult choices. Do they try and defend everything and likely defend nothing or try and second guess and defend some key points. Either way, they tie up a disproportionate number of units attempting to guard against them. I'm relieved once they are committed and you know where they are. I think the best defence is having some of your own. "Anything you can do, I can do better..."

I wonder how having marines and paratroopers would really help Germany.
The allies would likely simply ignore them : what key point could they threaten ? In the Pacific, that's another matter : both the US and Japanese have interesting places to invade. But in Europe ? Invading the UK is a gift to the Commonwealth (not to mention that it would very likely fail.) And going for North Africa, Sardinia or Southern Italy achieves nothing serious. In Europe, the allies cannot really feal threatened by axis special forces. They are best used for tactical use, providing additional units (and for para, additional +1) to difficult battles.

[EUBanana]

ORIGINAL: yvesp
Also note that since the start of the war, only one 0-rating partisan has been seen in China.

Japan is super lucky then... I'm not sure what the odds of them appearing are exactly but they seem to appear pretty much every turn when I play! and not 0 partisans either, 3-2 partisans sometimes.

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: EUBanana

ORIGINAL: yvesp
Also note that since the start of the war, only one 0-rating partisan has been seen in China.

Japan is super lucky then... I'm not sure what the odds of them appearing are exactly but they seem to appear pretty much every turn when I play! and not 0 partisans either, 3-2 partisans sometimes.

No ; that's exactly part of the Japanese strategy. Read the first posts.
There's no luck involved there : usually the chance of partisan appearing is 0 because I have enough garrison.
Trying to prevent this with the Chinese led to overextension, which served extremely well the Japanese who then could conquer huge swath of territory with very few losses. As a result, the Japanese fare pretty well up to now. I cannot say the same thing about Italy which through lack of vision (at least one German corps should have been sent to Africa) and bad luck lost Tripoli in 41 and their country at the end of 42...
Also watch how I don't close on the Chinese units in the latest maps so that units provide garrison ; having been burt once, the Chinese are warry : another mistake and the core of the country might fall!

The idea was that I preferred a secure 3 resources per turn, and no land losses to fighting the Chinese, having partisans cutting (sometimes for a very long time) the available resources, as well as suffering casualties : this leads into a losing spiral where you never have enough units for both garison duty and combat duty.

Here, the Japanese kept quiet in the plains for more than one year, daring the Chinese to advance, which finally they did to their sorrow. Next time, I'll know better: I'll also sit with the Chinese, waiting for the pacific war to start before trying to play smart with the Japanese...

EDIT: somewhere in the menu, you have a 'partisan' entry : this opens up a panel that shows all the partisan chances by country.
In my case, usually China is not listed. Partisan chance is reduced by the garison you have in the country: organized land or air units not in an enemy ZOC. mech/arm/mountain count for 2. I'm unsure for divs. I think each garison points reduces the chance by 3, but that would have to be confirmed. I don't really care.

[EUBanana]

ORIGINAL: yvesp
There's no luck involved there : usually the chance of partisan appearing is 0 because I have enough garrison.

Now that is fascinating, clearly more rules I was not familiar with!

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: EUBanana

ORIGINAL: yvesp
There's no luck involved there : usually the chance of partisan appearing is 0 because I have enough garrison.

Now that is fascinating, clearly more rules I was not familiar with!

There are places where this won't work, because you won't want to commit the required number of units to reduce the chances to 0. Yugoslavia comes on top.

[EUBanana]

ORIGINAL: yvesp

ORIGINAL: EUBanana

ORIGINAL: yvesp
There's no luck involved there : usually the chance of partisan appearing is 0 because I have enough garrison.

Now that is fascinating, clearly more rules I was not familiar with!

There are places where this won't work, because you won't want to commit the required number of units to reduce the chances to 0. Yugoslavia comes on top.

So how does it work? Based on how many cities you control or something?

This is probably why in my current game Japan is completely foobed, though atm they are pretty much back against the wall so I would assume they don't need to provide much of a garrison as they don't have much territory. UNless they need to be units in the cities themselves.

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: EUBanana

So how does it work? Based on how many cities you control or something?

This is probably why in my current game Japan is completely foobed, though atm they are pretty much back against the wall so I would assume they don't need to provide much of a garrison as they don't have much territory. UNless they need to be units in the cities themselves.

Each country is assigned a partisan value, which is "calculated" from the historical amount of Partisan activity. For exemple, Yugoslavia was notorious in that regard, France somewhat, but Belgium not much...
You reduce the rating depending on your garrsion value.
If the result is >0, then there is a chance of one partisan appearing. If the rating is large enough, there is a smaller chance for two or more.
Partisan don't appear anyway if there is no hex to place them : in enemy controlled territory, not in a ZOC. This happens more often than one believes, and is also a way to force partisan activity in place which you don't really care about (especially in small countries) : for exemple, you can prevent the easy capture of the Yugoslav ressources, even though you likely won't prevent the appearance of partisans in that country.