Realism check--does this situation make sense?

[Mgellis]

I've been playing around with ideas and I've come up with one that I may use for several scenarios: Battle Ocean '67.

What follows below is a first draft of the text that would be part of the scenario information (not the briefing itself). I'd be grateful to know what people think. How plausible is this? Is the timeline too fast or too slow? Are there any other details worth considering, including, etc.?

I guess part of what I'm asking is if you think players are likely to go, "Hmmm...yeah, that could have happened..." (= I think I will enjoy this scenario because I can suspend my disbelief and accept this "what if?" version of history)? Or will they go, "Oh, come on! That's just freakin' stupid, Gellis" (= I do not think I will enjoy this scenario because I cannot get past the jaw-dropping stupidity of the basic scenario concept)?

Anywhere, here is the draft of the text. Please let me know what you think. Comments, suggestions, observations, advice, etc. are all welcome.

Thanks!

-----cut here-----

This scenario assumes that a rebellion erupted in Poland in the summer of 1967. Soviet forces entered Poland in late August to crush the rebellion, but met stiff resistance. A number of Polish military units have mutinied and offered their support to the rebels.

The situation has started to spiral out of control. Politicians in several NATO countries have called on their leaders to support the Polish rebellion. The Soviet Union has responded by stating that any assistance to the rebels in Poland will be treated as a threat to the Warsaw Pact and will have "the most serious and dire consequences."

In this scenario, West Germany has decided to send a convoy to the Polish town of Kołobrzeg, currently the only port in Poland under rebel control. Not surprisingly, the Soviet Union does not want this mission to succeed.

----------timeline----------

August 10, 1967: Demonstrators are fired on by Soviet troops in Warsaw; five protesters are killed.

August 13, 1967: Civil disorder erupts in several Polish cities; in Lodz, a Polish mob kills two visiting Soviet officials.

August 17, 1967: Riots and civil disorder continue in Poland; more than one hundred people have been killed in the last week; some Polish military units mutiny and refuse to fight against or fire on fellow Poles. The Soviet Union begins to plan an invasion in the event that a general rebellion breaks out in Poland.

August 20, 1967: Some East German military units being readied to attack Poland mutiny; fighting between loyalist and rebel army units is now taking place in both East Germany and Poland. British and West German politicians urge their leaders to support the Polish rebels. The Soviet Union issues warnings against NATO interference.

August 22, 1967: Soviet forces cross into Poland.

August 24, 1967: West Germany decides to send a convoy to assist the Polish rebels.

-------------------------------------------------------

[Gunner98]

The backstory is on a solid footing and could easily be compared to Hungary in 56 or Czechoslovakia in 68.  The only thing I would have an issue with is the intervention of West Germany, it was in the middle of an economic slow-down and was sorting out its own house after Adenauer's resignation, primarily caused by weakness in defence posture being pointed out in the press.
 
Perhaps by creating an international humanitarian type of an issue (a shipload of refugees leaving Poland?) or a non-NATO (Swedish?) relief convoy perhaps.  The story can escalate from there with either a deliberate or accidental Soviet action which brings NATO to the brink.  Just some thoughts.
 
B

[Mgellis]

A related idea...if '67 was a bad year for the Germans to do this...what if I change the year to something like 1963, 1965, or 1969? Would any of those be better?

ORIGINAL: Gunner98

The backstory is on a solid footing and could easily be compared to Hungary in 56 or Czechoslovakia in 68.  The only thing I would have an issue with is the intervention of West Germany, it was in the middle of an economic slow-down and was sorting out its own house after Adenauer's resignation, primarily caused by weakness in defence posture being pointed out in the press.

Perhaps by creating an international humanitarian type of an issue (a shipload of refugees leaving Poland?) or a non-NATO (Swedish?) relief convoy perhaps.  The story can escalate from there with either a deliberate or accidental Soviet action which brings NATO to the brink.  Just some thoughts.

B

[Gunner98]

I think that 63 might be better - an attempt by Adenauer to defuse the situation and flex the military to dispel the roumours of weakness.

B

[DeltaIV]

Mark,

the idea is plausible to some extent, but the biggest problem is, that no matter what year you will choose, Soviet forces were already present in Poland and East Germany.

http://armada.vojenstvi.cz/povalecna/sovet.vojska/1.htm - East Germany
http://armada.vojenstvi.cz/povalecna/sovet.vojska/2.htm - Poland

Sorry, these links are in Czech - tried to do the links over the google translator, but failed, do it yourself, but they clearly state the fact that that soviet army was present in Poland and in Eastern Germany since WW2.

My points:
- either soviet troops stationed in Poland joined the rebellion (unlikely), or they are fighting or were destroyed
- anti-rebellion Soviet forces can come from Eastern Germany, Belarus, Ukraine or Lithuania
- East Germany can attack the convoy from West Germany with their surface ships, Soviets had probably some warships stationed in Baltic states at the time too so they can intervene as well

EDIT: Basically, two Soviet divisions were present in Poland during 60's - 20th Tank Division and 6th Guard Motorized Division, either say that they were destroyed or include them in the scen. [8D]

[Gunner98]

EDIT: Basically, two Soviet divisions were present in Poland during 60's - 20th Tank Division and 6th Guard Motorized Division, either say that they were destroyed or include them in the scen.

There is a little more in English on Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Group_of_Forces

There were 5 Divisions in the 50's and the two mentioned above by the 80's so somewhere in between is the actual troop level for 67. But those Divisions were held on a very tight leash, my memory of the Cold War Soviet hoard was that these divisions were the 2nd Echelon force which would follow the GSFG (Group of Soviet Forces Germany) and drive into the depth of NATO's defences. So they would not be committed to local disturbances without a decision by the Kremlin - which might be reluctant to under-cut the East German Government while at the same time reducing its strategic (?Operational?) level threat to NATO.

So I think you could hold them as an Axe over the head of any rebellion which gets out of control - while still keeping the premise of the scenario theme.


B

[DeSade]

I like it, few things:

1. I wouldn't start with Soviet troops firing on demonstrators - Kremlin policy was to try first to do dirty job by hands of local henchmen and only employ own forces when disloyality of local army was evident (like in Hungary, Czechoslovakia or your unfolding story).

2. Time settings are probable, both 67 and 63, but I would love to see December 70, when the story (at least part of it) actually happened - one of most tragic events in soviet-era Polish history:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_1970_protests

3. as for Soviet forces at that era in Poland, there were lots of them, all cofined mostly to north-western part:

https://www.google.com/maps/@53.4031145,16.51126,9z

they were stationed in their own small cities, enclaves closed for Polish citizens and exteritorrial in practice. Soldiers usually weren't allowed to leave them.

In addtion to mentioned 6th and 20th Division, front combat units included:
871st and 582nd Fighter Rgt
3rd and 42nd Bomber Rgt
83rd Airborne Bde
82nd, 144th and 255th (Guard) Mechanized Rgt
510th training tank Rgt
8th (Guard) and 72nd tank Rgt
4th Air Reserve Army (239th Figter Div and 149th Bomber Div)
24th missile boat Rgt

not counting arillery, logistics, comms etc

To be honest, that force alone could be even match for whole Polish army


Hope that helps

[Mgellis]

Interesting. I may save this as part of the background for the Battle Ocean '70 scenarios, if I ever get around to writing them. Thanks.

ORIGINAL: DeSade

I like it, few things:

1. I wouldn't start with Soviet troops firing on demonstrators - Kremlin policy was to try first to do dirty job by hands of local henchmen and only employ own forces when disloyality of local army was evident (like in Hungary, Czechoslovakia or your unfolding story).

2. Time settings are probable, both 67 and 63, but I would love to see December 70, when the story (at least part of it) actually happened - one of most tragic events in soviet-era Polish history:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_1970_protests

3. as for Soviet forces at that era in Poland, there were lots of them, all cofined mostly to north-western part:

https://www.google.com/maps/@53.4031145,16.51126,9z

they were stationed in their own small cities, enclaves closed for Polish citizens and exteritorrial in practice. Soldiers usually weren't allowed to leave them.

In addtion to mentioned 6th and 20th Division, front combat units included:
871st and 582nd Fighter Rgt
3rd and 42nd Bomber Rgt
83rd Airborne Bde
82nd, 144th and 255th (Guard) Mechanized Rgt
510th training tank Rgt
8th (Guard) and 72nd tank Rgt
4th Air Reserve Army (239th Figter Div and 149th Bomber Div)
24th missile boat Rgt

not counting arillery, logistics, comms etc

To be honest, that force alone could be even match for whole Polish army


Hope that helps

[Mgellis]

Here is the revised text...comments? suggestions?

---------------------------------------------------

This scenario assumes that an anti-Soviet rebellion erupted in Poland during the summer of 1963. West Germany has decided to send a convoy with humanitarian aid to the Polish town of Kołobrzeg, currently the only port in Poland under rebel control. Not surprisingly, the Soviet Union does not want this mission to succeed.

----------timeline----------

August 10, 1963: Demonstrators are fired on by troops in Warsaw; five protesters are killed.

August 13, 1963: Civil disorder erupts in several Polish cities; in Lodz, a Polish mob kills two visiting Soviet officials.

August 17, 1963: Riots and civil disorder continue in Poland; more than one hundred people have been killed in the last week; Polish military units mutiny and refuse to fight against or fire on fellow Poles. The New York Times reports that "Poland appears to have entered a state of general revolt against Soviet rule."

August 20, 1963: Some East German military units being readied to attack Poland mutiny; fighting between Soviet and rebel army units is now taking place in both East Germany and Poland. British and West German politicians urge their leaders to support the Polish rebels. The Soviet Union issues warnings against NATO interference.

August 22, 1963: Soviet forces have quelled the uprisings in East Germany but are meeting more resistance in Poland. Soviet advances are steady but slow, and several cities and towns in Poland remain in rebel hands.

August 24, 1963: West Germany decides to send a convoy to assist the Polish rebels. While the convoy reportedly is only carrying food, clothing, medicine, and other non-military aid, there is concern that the Soviets will interfere.

[Mgellis]

By the way, my plan is that the outcome of this scenario (i.e., Soviet and West German forces shooting at each other) triggers a wider response from NATO. That is, it is meant to be the first in a related series of scenarios with the same general background, now with the working title of Battle Ocean '63. Does this sound plausible...

August 28, 1963: Successful or not, the German convoy has been attacked and NATO is now on high alert. (DEFCON 3?) NATO declares that any Soviet forces "near or violating NATO territory and acting in a threatening or hostile manner" may be fired on. Several Soviet submarines and spy ships are currently quite close to British, Canadian, and American waters. A few found within (or perhaps just very close to) territorial waters are attacked. NATO interceptors fire on bombers deemed "too close for comfort."

August 30, 1963: Tag! You're it! Soviets respond by having their submarines stalk and attack NATO units. NATO increases its ASW activities. Both sides shoot down aircraft (spy planes, etc.) that cross into restricted air space, etc.

And then what happens? Neither side actually wants to go to war. And neither side has to go to war--right now, both sides are losing a few ships and a few submarines, but nothing that creates a critical risk to the homeland. How long would this go on before one side says, "Okay, your navy is better than our navy...for now" and the diplomats start talking about how to get things back to normal? Or would it escalate, even if there really is no need for it to do so?

[NakedWeasel]

Thinking about the world, particularly the Cold War in general at that particular time, I am inclined to believe that it would escalate, and could have resulted in nuclear war. In 1963 Nikita Khrushchev was the Soviet Premier, and I have no doubt he would have used that opportunity to attempt a political victory by forcing the West to abandon it's goals of supporting a free Poland.

[Randomizer]

My question would be that if West Germany unilaterally intervened in Poland, this may not automatically trigger a NATO Chapter-5 response as FRG could be considered the aggressor. Presumably the alliance was not consulted otherwise there would likely be a NATO vice West German response to the events in Poland. You can probably guarantee that some Member's of the alliance would baulk at providing military support to another Member who has deliberately intervened in the Soviet sphere even for what appears to be altruistic and humanitarian reasons.

Suggest that your alternate reality can massage West Germany in NATO. Suppose that in the aftermath of raising the Berlin Wall and the nuclear scare induced by the Cuban Missile Crisis that prior to the events in Poland, the FRG and the GDR established a diplomatic modus vivendi. This might be the Soviets remove the GFSG from East Germany is excused from the military provisions of the Warsaw Pact while West Germany exits the military structure (like France) and demanded that NATO troops leave. Once Germany is in over its head, NATO self-interest can kick in as desired. Improbable but I submit less so that direct West German military action in Poland. Dying for Danzig and German incursions in Poland recall some very bad European events.

I also think that this sort of situation would probably spiral out of control very fast and rather like Gunner98's Swedish humanitarian intervention as the primary scenario trigger rather than unilateral and very provocative West German actions.

That said, you may sculpt your alternate reality as you like but I think that if you want something politically reasonable for the era while keeping your core narrative, you need to divorce West Germany from NATO somehow while preventing Soviet aggression across the inter-German border. Recall that Khrushchev was a reformer at heart and tried to compromise (provided the Soviet Union was not perceived to be under threat) but his replacements were more ideologically dogmatic and less inclined to bargain. Maybe consider some scenario-ending events that are designed to trigger if certain Player actions would escalate the situation out of control.

My $0.02 CAD.

-C

[Mgellis]

ORIGINAL: Randomizer

My question would be that if West Germany unilaterally intervened in Poland, this may not automatically trigger a NATO Chapter-5 response as FRG could be considered the aggressor. Presumably the alliance was not consulted otherwise there would likely be a NATO vice West German response to the events in Poland. You can probably guarantee that some Member's of the alliance would baulk at providing military support to another Member who has deliberately intervened in the Soviet sphere even for what appears to be altruistic and humanitarian reasons.

Excellent point. What if the Soviets not only attacked the convoy but then took some kind of punitive actions, something meant to "spank" the West Germans? But the Soviets miscalculate...they do something big enough that NATO does go on alert, or feel they have to inflict "equal damage" or look like losers to the rest of the world, and then things start to spiral out of control. But what would that be? If the Soviets sunk a couple of German warships as a "lesson" or something? Would that result in a Chapter 5 response? Or would they have to actually do something like bomb an air base?

[DeltaIV]

I could imagine Soviets seizing the convoy in the territorial waters of Poland, claiming that FGR is supporting anti-state rebel elements in sovereign Warsaw Pact country. Mutiny would be defeated quickly as the newly established puppet goverment of communist hardliners enacts martial law. Soviet Union broadcasts blatant accusations of repeated attempts of FGR to destabilise one of the WP members. NATO article five was not triggered. I think that FGR would be "bad boy" in this case, so CCCP would try to keep the "good boy" attitude, not doing anything stupid.

Now what with the captured FGR guys / ships ? Perhaps demand something in exchange ? West Berlin / Expulsion of Allies ? Political recognition of GDR as separate state by West Germany ? Too many posibilities [:)]

[Mgellis]

I ended up making it '64 so I could give Germany F-104s...the Sabres were getting slaughtered not only by the MiGs but even by the tail gunners on the Tu-16s.

So...the convoy sets sail, someone starts shooting (it could be either side; it is possible to get through the scenario without that happening, but it's not easy), shots are fired on both sides, both sides take losses, but the convoy gets through. It probably won't make too much difference in the long run, but Aug. 27 dawns with the Kołobrzeg rebels having plenty of food, medicine, blankets, etc. The Soviets are extremely annoyed. What happens next? Maybe...

Aug. 28. The New York Times reports "frank conversations" between President Johnson and the German ambassador about the recent events in the Baltic. The view of the U.S. is that Chapter 5 of the NATO treaty may not apply because Germany's actions, however laudable in humanitarian terms, was provocative and perhaps illegal.

Sept. 1. The convoy incident in the Baltic probably would have been an isolated event except for some very bad luck. The Soviets and Germans clashed again in the Baltic when a German destroyer got too close to a Soviet Osa-class missile boat similar to one sunk during the convoy incident. The German captain very likely trying to harass the Soviet captain, but probably had not intended to fire. The captain of the Osa warned the German ship against progressing further, was ignored, and fired. His missiles sunk the German destroyer. [So...would this be enough to trigger a Chapter 5 response? This time, the Soviets did shoot first and without a very good reason. If so...what happens next? Build up of NATO forces in the Atlantic and the Baltic? Sanctions in the U.N.? What?]