Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

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Lokasenna
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Lokasenna »

Gotta disagree with ya, Lowpe. Given where Kane's forces are flung, I don't think he'll have much in the immediate vicinity of Palembang. Even if he flies PA and TR aircraft units to Singers to fly in troops, he'll only have so many to fly in, and that takes a few days. A week is an awful short length of time to get reinforcements to Palembang if the units are at Moulmein, Victoria Point, Bangkok, etc. The garrison requirements in Java and Malaysia aren't large, and I'd say it's probable that MrKane has met them with not much beyond.
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Lowpe
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Lowpe »

Well, I am in the minority here...and I am prepared to eat crow![:)]

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Sangeli
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Sangeli »

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
You are such a pessimist! [;)]

I hope by then I can have a more potent Naval LBA force. So if he leaves Fiji with the KB...he would also have to deal with the subs if it leaves. And my BBs will stay back...too slow. So we might end up having some BB battles down there.

I agree this is a crazy optimistic thing but it CAN work. All he has in a SNLF and a tank RGT. He can´t fly in any heavy equipment and I´m rolling loads of Grants/Lees in the assault. We all know the engine doesn´t deal very well with massed armor and his SNLFs have really bad Anti Hard values. And his tankettes...well...you know. [:)]

For now I´ll continue with the OP. All its costing me right now is time. I can always abort at any point and with the entire IJN in the SOPAC I can´t do anything there anyway. With the allied fleet in the IO we can certainly have some fun with KB away in SOPAC. Right?

Burma, Sumatra, Adamans...3000 unrestricted AV + the troops I brought for the PB raid. Should be 5000 AV or so. Even if I don´t go ahead with the OP I can probably find some work to do anyway. Right? [:)]

Tom clearly wants SOPAC. I can´t stop him having his way there so I might as well do something elsewhere. [:)]
I have to strongly agree with Lowpe here. You have to march on Palembang without any LBA. Mind you Palembang is in 3x terrain and has forts and you have to cross a river. Japan will have over a week to reinforce before you can even begin and you'll be marching under LBA attack. I've seen other AFBs try Sumatra in 1942 and failed despite initial surprise. I understand the urge to do something I just don't think you're ready for Sumatra regardless of how much AV you have. Even if Tom goes hard in the SoPac he still will have enough in reserve to block you in Sumatra and then IJA reinforcements can arrive at will unopposed until you're off the island.
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Lokasenna
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
You are such a pessimist! [;)]

I hope by then I can have a more potent Naval LBA force. So if he leaves Fiji with the KB...he would also have to deal with the subs if it leaves. And my BBs will stay back...too slow. So we might end up having some BB battles down there.

I agree this is a crazy optimistic thing but it CAN work. All he has in a SNLF and a tank RGT. He can´t fly in any heavy equipment and I´m rolling loads of Grants/Lees in the assault. We all know the engine doesn´t deal very well with massed armor and his SNLFs have really bad Anti Hard values. And his tankettes...well...you know. [:)]

For now I´ll continue with the OP. All its costing me right now is time. I can always abort at any point and with the entire IJN in the SOPAC I can´t do anything there anyway. With the allied fleet in the IO we can certainly have some fun with KB away in SOPAC. Right?

Burma, Sumatra, Adamans...3000 unrestricted AV + the troops I brought for the PB raid. Should be 5000 AV or so. Even if I don´t go ahead with the OP I can probably find some work to do anyway. Right? [:)]

Tom clearly wants SOPAC. I can´t stop him having his way there so I might as well do something elsewhere. [:)]
I have to strongly agree with Lowpe here. You have to march on Palembang without any LBA. Mind you Palembang is in 3x terrain and has forts and you have to cross a river. Japan will have over a week to reinforce before you can even begin and you'll be marching under LBA attack. I've seen other AFBs try Sumatra in 1942 and failed despite initial surprise. I understand the urge to do something I just don't think you're ready for Sumatra regardless of how much AV you have. Even if Tom goes hard in the SoPac he still will have enough in reserve to block you in Sumatra and then IJA reinforcements can arrive at will unopposed until you're off the island.

This game is in a fundamentally difference place than those other games, though.

Tom's forces are committed to such an extent in Oz/SoPac that he can't have enough in reserve in the DEI area to successfully reinforce against a landing of this magnitude.
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Lowpe
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Do you realize how many torpedo bombers he can put over Tavoy at this date?

What, those torpedo bombers won't be at Singers?

But I do agree that Palembang is important, and to lose it before 1943 even starts would indeed be staggering to Japan. And it is probably held very lightly, and the garrison requirements aren't huge in Singers, Java area.

But it is nasty terrain, has some level of forts, will be reinforced with the everything Mr. Kane can throw into it and since he is in the process of building up his Burma front there will more than you realize.

You guys can have the final word...agree to disagree so to speak.[;)]

I hope it does work, because it would be fun to watch, and cause JFB to be a little less wild in the openings.





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Lowpe
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

I have to strongly agree with Lowpe here.

Say that again![&o]
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Sangeli
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Sangeli »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Tom's forces are committed to such an extent in Oz/SoPac that he can't have enough in reserve in the DEI area to successfully reinforce against a landing of this magnitude.
How much has he actually committed? I see a lot of units planning for action in the SoPac but where are they right now? Unless they are on the ground they can be anywhere. Sure the KB is there but he doesn't need the KB for Sumatra (although it would certainly help).

At the very least Joc needs to get a good headcount on whats in Singapore. That is the most likely jumping off point of Japanese reserves. If it's really empty then *maybe* this can work. But then again Tom would have at least a week to reinforce Palembang meaning any LCU aboard ships within 30 hexes would be able to get there BEFORE the assault.

I guess if Joc does go for it I will certainly enjoy watching the result, whatever happens
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EHansen
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by EHansen »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Well, I am in the minority here...and I am prepared to eat crow![:)]


I also agree with you. I think this will turn into a disaster.
I don't feel that initial LCU's will be the problem. I expect
many amphip ships to be sunk before they unload.
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by JocMeister »

Sangeli, Lowpe.

You both bring up very good points. I´ll try and go through Intel Monkey and get a fix on whats in the area. As I said before this is not set in stone. But right now shifting focus to the IO seems like a good idea. The Samoans are rock solid and I think Fiji will be safe for now. His bombardments are not doing much damage. He is limited to 1 AF and he must wait for prepp. The landing will be bloody enough for him anyway. Trying to land without 100 prep is just pure suicide. I tried that against weak opposition a couple of times late in the war and 50%-70% disablements seems to be normal even with 50+ prepp.

With the KB + navy and most of the IJA in the area it doesn´t make much sense hanging around. Had I not lost Sara I might have considered seeking battle under my own LBA. But not now. It will take me about a month to transit to the IO. Much can change in that time of course. But even if I cancel the PB operation there are plenty of targets around in the area. And with the KB deep in SOPAC I´m sure there are loads of opportunities to be had there. I´m already prepping for targets in Burma. Might get a good opportunity to do something there. 2nd British is arriving right now and that is a nice boost. Don´t forget that the forces slated for PB can be used to reinforce any beach head around the IO. [:)]
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Sangeli
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Sangeli »

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
With the KB + navy and most of the IJA in the area it doesn´t make much sense hanging around. Had I not lost Sara I might have considered seeking battle under my own LBA. But not now. It will take me about a month to transit to the IO. Much can change in that time of course. But even if I cancel the PB operation there are plenty of targets around in the area. And with the KB deep in SOPAC I´m sure there are loads of opportunities to be had there. I´m already prepping for targets in Burma. Might get a good opportunity to do something there. 2nd British is arriving right now and that is a nice boost. Don´t forget that the forces slated for PB can be used to reinforce any beach head around the IO. [:)]
Yes, those are some good points. With the KB in the SoPac there isn't much use sticking around and just waiting for things to happen. Burma is usually a good spot to fight in 1942 as the Allies; you can trade heavy air losses here to get the VP score more even. And clearly based off your intel it looks like Japan is going to bring more LCUs to Burma as well. The only issue I see that with China falling it makes the Burma road irrelevant - except in bringing Japanese LCUs over the mountains from China. But that won't happen for at least a few months so if you want to secure yourself in Burma, earlier is better than later.
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Lowpe
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: EHansen
I also agree with you. I think this will turn into a disaster.
I don't feel that initial LCU's will be the problem. I expect
many amphip ships to be sunk before they unload.

Jocke is pretty darn good at amphib landings -- he does them quickly and well; so that is actually the least of my worries.

He is also careful enough to pull back if spotted too far out.

No foul preparing for this operation, 90 days is a long time away, and a lot will happen between then and now.






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JeffroK
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by JeffroK »

As a good general, go through a couple of other landing plans, Paramushiro, Hokkaido, Java, Timor.
(I would vote against Sumatra, but dont see anything better if you have to do something.}

There might be a better target.

Wherever you land, take lots of SeeBees and get an airbase up and running quickly, I know airframes are at low numbers but dont be scared of landing a squadron at a base without AV support, they'll survive for about a week but give much needed CAP.
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Bullwinkle58
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


This game is in a fundamentally difference place than those other games, though.

Tom's forces are committed to such an extent in Oz/SoPac that he can't have enough in reserve in the DEI area to successfully reinforce against a landing of this magnitude.

Also, Jocke is willing to lose the LCUs. Canoerebel was not. He came to stay.

Japan often over-estimates how much damage its bombers can do to marching troops who have AA with them. It's not great, but it's not crippling. You aren't talking about bombing Chinese peasant divisions here.
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Lowpe
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Japan often over-estimates how much damage its bombers can do to marching troops who have AA with them. It's not great, but it's not crippling. You aren't talking about bombing Chinese peasant divisions here.

I think most IJ bombers will be targeting the ships, some on the troops for intel and to slow them down some.

Of course, one he finds out the amount of flak there...and if Jocke's carriers provide adequate CAP over the ships landing junk, it could be quite the aerial bloodbath.
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Crackaces »

And he takes Bangkok. So what? Nothing there but some HI and a supply dump

I am not sure how to get to Bangkok given this position but I have to answer that Bangkok is much more than a supply base.
Because of the open plains of Thailand -- seizing Bangkok means being able to pummel the IJ in the open hexes.
USA Armor cuts through like butter until the jungle hexes of Vietnam. Once at Hanoi southeast Asia is untenable and China is open for the taking.

N=2 ...
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
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Lowpe
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Lowpe »

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
And he takes Bangkok. So what? Nothing there but some HI and a supply dump

I am not sure how to get to Bangkok given this position but I have to answer that Bangkok is much more than a supply base.
Because of the open plains of Thailand -- seizing Bangkok means being able to pummel the IJ in the open hexes.
USA Armor cuts through like butter until the jungle hexes of Vietnam. Once at Hanoi southeast Asia is untenable and China is open for the taking.

N=2 ...

My thoughts there, also it is a huge airbase that threatens a lot of DEI and China.
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Bullwinkle58
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
And he takes Bangkok. So what? Nothing there but some HI and a supply dump

I am not sure how to get to Bangkok given this position but I have to answer that Bangkok is much more than a supply base.
Because of the open plains of Thailand -- seizing Bangkok means being able to pummel the IJ in the open hexes.
USA Armor cuts through like butter until the jungle hexes of Vietnam. Once at Hanoi southeast Asia is untenable and China is open for the taking.

N=2 ...

None of that is true in June 1942.
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Bullwinkle58
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Japan often over-estimates how much damage its bombers can do to marching troops who have AA with them. It's not great, but it's not crippling. You aren't talking about bombing Chinese peasant divisions here.

I think most IJ bombers will be targeting the ships, some on the troops for intel and to slow them down some.

Of course, one he finds out the amount of flak there...and if Jocke's carriers provide adequate CAP over the ships landing junk, it could be quite the aerial bloodbath.

If he sub-divides the troops into enough ships he gets enough ashore in a day. Sub-divide into many TFs and the targeting algos throw up.

People around here are too in love with carriers. It's possible to wipe your nose without a birdfarm to hand you the hankie.

This is a smash and grab, hey-diddle-diddle-right-up-the-middle suicide mission. That's all. That's it. Jocke can rebuild the LCUs. Palembang, if torched, is out of the war.

It's 70-30 against this works. In any game not already waaaaaay over auto-vic I'd say it's crazy. In this game it's not crazy.
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Bullwinkle58
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
And he takes Bangkok. So what? Nothing there but some HI and a supply dump

I am not sure how to get to Bangkok given this position but I have to answer that Bangkok is much more than a supply base.
Because of the open plains of Thailand -- seizing Bangkok means being able to pummel the IJ in the open hexes.
USA Armor cuts through like butter until the jungle hexes of Vietnam. Once at Hanoi southeast Asia is untenable and China is open for the taking.

N=2 ...

My thoughts there, also it is a huge airbase that threatens a lot of DEI and China.

Guys, guys . . .

It's the summer of freakin' '1942!!! Jocke doesn't HAVE huge air forces to put at huge airbases. All these people hand-waving "well, attack Timor, or attack Java, or attack Hokkaido, or, or, or . . ."

Are they playing the same game as the rest of us?

It's not about attacking "something." It's not about "draw him away." It's not about feints. It's about throwing in the kitchen sink to take down the one (1) gotta-have strategic target the Allies have any hope of reaching in June 1942. STRATEGIC TARGET.
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JocMeister
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RE: Japanese land in OZ!!

Post by JocMeister »

As Bull says the point is not to permanently stay. In an absolute dream scenario I will land unspotted on Day 1 race for PB, wreck it and be gone by D+16. More likely outcome is that I will never be able to get the troops out though.

If things stay unchanged as they are now with a massive Japanese focus in SOPAC this could work. But as I said before lots of things can happen in that time and 95 days is a very long time. And if I have to scrub the landing Burma is certainly an option. While Tom has heavily reinforced it he would be very heard pressed facing over 3000 allied AV including heavy tanks.

For now the aim will be to make the operation happen. If it doesn´t we will come up with something else. [:)]
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