Global War : a Japanese AAR

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: Orm
Maybe bad was not the correct word for it.

I suspect that China was happy with the situation before the Kunming disaster. In my opinion China should abstain from any serious attacks until Japan is engaged elsewhere and US is in the war.

Well, of course the Chinese were happy : not taking losses is a rather comfortable situation. Anyway, this has changed this turn. They lost an inf and 2BP to strat bombing.
Not to mention the Kunming warlord...

Actually, I find the "not being attacked" situation more difficult to manage (as the Chinese player) : the country is huge, and because the Japanese are not engaged they are pretty free to do whatever fancy them... The Kungmin operation is a good exemple. As a result, the Chinese are now retreating to a tighter defense ring, so that units can move faster to threatened ares: a 2 movement factor Chinese inf takes eons to reach the other side of China! This is a rather serious liability which I had not analyzed but that reinforces my strategy.

Also note that currently, even with some disorganized units, my partisan rating in China is as low as 6%. I'm still waiting to see the first Chinese partisan.

----

What I wanted to know was if the Japanese capture of Kunming had changed the Japanese strategy in any way.

No, not really : the strategic issue is that once you're embroidered in a serious land action against China, you are both (in my view) uselessly using resources (that can be best used elsewhere) and you lose much of your freedom to act.

Tactically, I may consider the capture of the southwest Chinese resource, to route it through Vietnam. But this involves two "difficult" fights, possibly more as the situation evolves, that may not be in my interest of doing for a mere resource: there is a city to capture and some mountian hexes to secure. Probably not worth it unless an opportunity opens up. As an aside, that resource is also denied the Chinese : the Japanese militia prevents its use. Thats fine to me : one less BP goin to the Chinese...

[yvesp]

The end of the December turn sees the fall of Yugoslavia, the entry of Italy into the war, and Bulgaria joining the fray.

Needless to say that the USA are not amused again.

Problem: three picks and no tension. The USA are still stuck at a 10 tension, preventing the gear up.

In China, the loss of Kungmin, highlighted the weakness of the Chinese position. The underbelly is vulnerable, even though mountainous, and too few units are not enough to secure it. As a result, Chiang takes the decision to retreat the whole army more in the center of China, to ease the movement of units between threatened areas. Not knowing where the Japanese might decide to strike is a headache with so slow units!

Japan produces:
2 carrier air units (time to upgrade them to good designs)
2 convoys (at some point, we are expecting to ship at least 7 more resources from east Asia ; this will require 14 convoys, and we don't have them yet)
1 mechanized
1 motorized
1 militia

China produces:
1 infantry
1 motorized div

Even with the force pool almost fully built, the situation doesn't look that great!

[composer99]

If the Chinese don't reinforce it soon, and the Japanese can get a reinforcement into Kunming, Kweiyang looks tempting. Get the factory and blow it up? Yes, please!

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: composer99

If the Chinese don't reinforce it soon, and the Japanese can get a reinforcement into Kunming, Kweiyang looks tempting. Get the factory and blow it up? Yes, please!

It is a major operation to blow up the factory as the unit doing so must be in supply.

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: composer99

If the Chinese don't reinforce it soon, and the Japanese can get a reinforcement into Kunming, Kweiyang looks tempting. Get the factory and blow it up? Yes, please!

This is a one year operation you are requesting, or almost:
1) Gather the required troops (either build them or remove them from some place)
2) Bring them in Vietnam, and hope its not moonsoon or you're stuck for 3 turns
3) climb the mountains ; thats a 6+ hex trip, and the end is easily blocked by the Chinese
4) Oh ; and for all that I'll need a HQ, because if I don't have one, I can't fight or blow up the factory
5) To be sure, I might even need 2 HQ, because the lines will be quite stretched with only one HQ

Am I going to engage that much assets in an operation that will engage me for that duration so deep inside China for just blowing one factory ? I'm better strat striking it.

No, I don't think so ; sorry!

[yvesp]

Once more, nothing much happens in the far East.

The Chinese have retreated to a more manageable area and spread their forces. Any offensive from the japanes should be foreseable now, and troops are still sufficiebtly close to each other to prevent an easy conquest. One Kunming was enough...

Still, the Chinese lost 2BP to strat bombing raids. Thats 33% of their production.

At this time of the war, the interesting things happen on the other side of the earth.

1) Two Italian sub squdron succeeded in rupturing the flow of resources in Cape St Vincent. The British industry can live one turn with stored oil, but not much more. Should the Italian succeed on the next turn, the production would be seriously affected.

2) The German army is engaging in a serious offensive on the East. All troops and planes are called on the Russian border. German troops in occupied countries are replaced by Italian trops. It's good that the Commonwealth has no means for invasion : it wouold be easy!

3) The Russian have declared war on and conquered Irak in one impulse. They control a large part of the middle east oil now.

4) More importantly, seeing the impressive German buildup, Russia has declared war on Italy. Well, the USA did not take it too bad! Only 5 points lost (4 one and one 2) ; it could have been worse! This lets Russia take land impulses : Zhukov is called from duty in the far east to duty in the west, reserves are called, and militias will be levied en masse. This means that if Germany wants an "easy" time, it will have to take it in the heart of the Russian winter. Of course, they might still break the pact and wait for a better time. But the red army is likely to be as ready as it can. It is important to note that the initiative is at +2 in favor of the allies. The axis might not have its chance to break the pact after all, but it will be a close call.


After all this, only two chits remain in the German side of the US entry pool. Does it matter if that was the cost to prevent of diffuse a war against Russia ?

[yvesp]

The situation on the Russia border.

[yvesp]

This turn production is beginning to be delicate ; we are entering the time frame where a war declaration against the allies might become possible within the 4 or 5 next turns, that is within the time frame for the production of some specialized units.

We know that next turn production will be severely reduced by building the second synth oil plant. So important builds are to be done this turn!

China is becoming now a not that important focus ; in any case, it is currently tamed.
Note that the current strategy doesn't bind me to building units I don't want.

Japan builds:
1 militia
1 para div
1 marine div
2 convoys
3 carrier planes
1 pilot


China builds:
nothing ; there is a necessity for building that synth oil plant, and most of the force pool is on the map anyway, even though the defenses look so limited. 4BP are stored in Urumchi.

[composer99]

Should China not have more aircraft by now? Did they not get any lend-lease planes from the US?

[yvesp]

The neutrality pact after setting up the units.

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Should China not have more aircraft by now? Did they not get any lend-lease planes from the US?

Yes ; but they lost their oil!
Why build planes that don't fly ?
It will be a year from now (or worse), before more planes are coming.

And anyway, they would not be that useful: the strikes happen on the communist cities, where the nationalists cannot use their air power...

[yvesp]

The allies lose initiative ; they ask for a reroll and get it.
The Russian are begging to move first!

And the neutrality pact cannot be broken after their move.
The question now is to know who will be able to reinforce the fastest...
Anyway, Germany is now stuck with this policy, and there is nothing that can be done yet.
However, the British are using the absence of the german from all war theaters to prepare an attack from Egypt. This might force Germany to relinquish its grasp around the Russian bear ; who have been nice enough to send back one Persian oil...

[yvesp]

While the turn advances, Germnay realizes with dismay that the Russians have trumped them!

Having moved ALL units (bare two divisions and one militia) on the East front, the neutrality pact cannot be broken. That's a position that cannot be lasting. Impossible to keep all units there and not suffer great risks...

Worse: The Russians still have units that should shortly move west, and other units that are disorganized : that's 13 points in garrison that are coming ; there is nothing Germany can send to match. And with still 10 militia to build, its unlikely that the pact can be broken even in June. At best (I did not count), that would go for a July attack, with Russia well reinforced with many cheap units. Enough to form a reasonable line. The best bet anyway is that it won't be broken before 42. So what ?

[yvesp]

In China, the Japanese have now a plan for usefully using Kunming.

It still involves sending a HQ, but thats about all : make it an airbase to pound the factories. Idealy, one should be able to pack enough power to destroy the factories one after the other. But that's a long term project, if only because there is yet no real spare HQ, so that it will have to be built from scratch. The good news is that Yamashita entered the pool this turn, and he a quite fast HQ ; very handy in mountainous areas.

Furthermore, should the Japanese bring a HQ, that would make easy the opening the west road to Burma : who knows ; that might be an road for the much coveted Burma oil!

Yet, the plans may still evolve.

[yvesp]

The turn ends with many American ships landed in Hawai.
In addition, the congress passed a law to double to military production.

All this bodes ill, and our Japanese becomes increasingly worried...

As expected this turn, he builds:
* one synth oil plant
* one infantry HQ
* 3 carrier airs (many of which cost 0, but this keeps ups the building capacity)

The Chinese build one inf and save the rest, still hoping to build the synth oil plant. I made a mistake by saving all previous BP in the save city, forgetting that I could only use one per turn...

As a note, the Japanese watch with rather more than ennoyment the US lay down 3 carriers of a radical new design, larger and better protected than the previous generation.


Also we shall note that the Italian subs, extremely lucky, once more chased some british convoys from the Cape St Vincent. This pushes the British economy at its limits as no more oil is stored in Great Britain now. To add to this, partisans took posseion of the oil fields in Palembang.

Germany has decided to reduce its commitment in the East and sent back some garrisons. It also sends a small expeditionnary corps to Greece.

[AxelNL]

You sure know how to build up tension!

[yvesp]

ORIGINAL: AxelNL

You sure know how to build up tension!

Thanks! [:D]

[yvesp]

While Germany moves some troops south, frustrated about not being able to attack, the British move their troops along the coast, and attack well entranched Italian troops. Sending its troops as garrison west did not leave any room for reinforcing. Anyway, Italy was not really willing to risk her navy, while the threat did not seem that great. Wawell nevertheless attacked, with a rather small force. Tobruk, poorly defended by territorial fell first. Rolling 18, the Italian North African Army was pushed into the sea, and the loss was not small: Balbo, an anti-tank div, one infantry corps : overall, two production turns went with that roll. While Tripoli is not yet in danger, the British having to roll along the coast and count on fickle supply, something will soon have to be done.

This loss somehow annoyed the Japanese: if the British were free of the North African entanglement, this freed troops to go back and defend their Asian possessions. This also probably freed some of the Royal Navy from duty in the Mediterranean. Decidedly, the German choices had deep implications.

Meanwhile, leaving their usual passivity, the japanese army brings two new corps near Nanning and attacks. The idea would have been to caprure the city before the moonsoon. Why ? With Kunming gone, Nanning is the only city that opens up on Vietnam. Furthermore, it is an isolated city for the Chinese who would have a hard time recapturing it, often in supply because close enough from a port ; it is a place which, once within Japanese hands, is unlikely to be contested and which will stretch yet more the Chinese defense line. Holding it is likely to free some land units that will soon be required in other places.


Unfortunately, the city holds ; the Chinese lose one mot inf and the japanese 1 militia and one territorial. With luck, the moonsoon might be late and another attack would succeed. But can one count on that ?

[yvesp]

Fortunately, with the turn lasting, the Japanese are able to mount an unlikely operation : a carpet bombing raid on Nanning ; which, forunately, succeeds. With no nationalist units on the reinforcing pool for the next turn, the city is already virtualy captured (the Japanese would not have done that raid otherwise.)

Despite the large success, Tojo is not amused that the army did not wait the bombing raid from the air force. The answer that there was not knowing when these damn planes would arrive and that they were late was not satisfying. Indeed, Tojo counted that this one offensive had cost three weeks of the war industry production. Too much!

On their side, the Chinese were sad about the loss, but there was absolutely nothing they were able to do about a force that could strike where and when it wanted. It just proved that anything too close to the shores was at risk.

[yvesp]

At the end of the turn, the Commonwealth is pushing Italy out of Lybia. Japan doesn't feel that the timing is good to declare war, which would certainly relieve the pressure on Italy. Even though Tojo is looking with some envy at the Malaysian and Netherland resources...