Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

[F4F]

If you are going to do this check out canoerebels good bad and ugly aar where he ran out of patience/steam/whatever. He didn't go far enough and recognized it too late. The circumstances are different with stacking limits etc, but reading it could be useful.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: krishub1

Rhetorical question.

Would it work better to use the "Reliable USN Torpedoes" option but edit the scenario to reduce the number of US fleet boats that are available early in the game? You could add them later as reinforcements to bring the sub OB up to historical values sometime in 1943.

Not really the proper forum for this, but a short opinion:

An interesting proposal. It would get at least part way to the objective, but would be hard to balance. Which subs? Which classes? Where based? I've played a month against the AI with reliable torpedoes and it's carnage time in the DEI and PI with the Manila boats. It's as ahistoric as the current model with them off, just different fleas.

I've discussed a private mod with Lokasenna whereby a work-around would be to play with the switch OFF, but insert several new sub class devices, each with a steadily decreasing dud rate. These devices could only be accessed by extra upgrade trips to the yards, thus necessitating more time off station. Additionally, the yards would have large minimum sizes so the transits would be painful. Control of the sub force would be up to the player's choice. If he wanted better shooters earlier he would pay the costs to upgrade. If he wanted intel/search on station he would leave them to upgrade as now in the two Great Healings on 1/1/43 and 10/1/43.

Unfortunately, the reliable torpedoes switch is in the EXE and the dates and amounts of the Great Healings are hard-coded. They can't be avoided or turned off. And this mod would do nothing to address the equally-problematic issue of over-targeting of escorts. But it would better reflect field mods to the Mk 14 that steadily reduced actual failure rates at sea from the incredibly high rates of 12/41 all the way through 1942. And it would allow a better 1943 that could force Japan to really drive its merchant marine, instead of loaf around as now.

[paullus99]

Since so much is hard-coded on the Allied side, it is hard to really be able to balance things, especially in light of the increased flexibility (and quite frankly - quantitative & qualitative superiority) of the Japanese forces in most of these scenarios....

[Barb]

Joc: Operation "Holly Mackerel"?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Since so much is hard-coded on the Allied side, it is hard to really be able to balance things, especially in light of the increased flexibility (and quite frankly - quantitative & qualitative superiority) of the Japanese forces in most of these scenarios....

It is hard to balance, but it might be made a little better. The whole sub side of the game is kinda weird, as if GG did it as an afterthought. I've long mentioned that the patrol turn-around time is wrong (a day versus circa three weeks), balanced by the inability to sink more than one ship per attack. But the escort-targeting rate is a really big thing that frustrates any kind of historic outcomes. I keep hoping Michael will tweak that, but I doubt he will as it would take testing. The dud rate is the only thing exposed to modding.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Since so much is hard-coded on the Allied side, it is hard to really be able to balance things, especially in light of the increased flexibility (and quite frankly - quantitative & qualitative superiority) of the Japanese forces in most of these scenarios....

It is hard to balance, but it might be made a little better. The whole sub side of the game is kinda weird, as if GG did it as an afterthought. I've long mentioned that the patrol turn-around time is wrong (a day versus circa three weeks), balanced by the inability to sink more than one ship per attack. But the escort-targeting rate is a really big thing that frustrates any kind of historic outcomes. I keep hoping Michael will tweak that, but I doubt he will as it would take testing. The dud rate is the only thing exposed to modding.

The most annoying thing is that the code seems to be there: subs that are forced to surface can fire at several ships in a convoy, but a submerged attack is limited to a single ship.

[Bullwinkle58]

True. Might be calling a whole different sub-routine though. It seems as if the sub only fires back at ships firing at it. That's my perception at least.

[Mike McCreery]

Joc,

I agree it is a foolish plan. The number of days it is gong to take you to get from your landing points to your objective is too many. He will have too much time to reinforce in both locations while beating you to death with LBA.

I havent been paying attention to the details of your AAR as I read them all but this plan is more of a long term plan with heavy support.

How about making a feint for these locations that draws him toward this theatre and then taking something that can move the points like Suva or Noumea??

He needs to maintain his 4 - 1 advantage and every combat where he is not coming out ahead of that he is losing ground.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

Joc,

I agree it is a foolish plan. The number of days it is gong to take you to get from your landing points to your objective is too many. He will have too much time to reinforce in both locations while beating you to death with LBA.

I havent been paying attention to the details of your AAR as I read them all but this plan is more of a long term plan with heavy support.

How about making a feint for these locations that draws him toward this theatre and then taking something that can move the points like Suva or Noumea??

He needs to maintain his 4 - 1 advantage and every combat where he is not coming out ahead of that he is losing ground.

The trouble with feints is that they need to be serious enough to be convincing...

I think 6 IDs is maybe a little much. If it were me, I'd probably land with ~300-400 AV of armor and only drive for Palembang. The march to Medan is a longer one, and closer to airfields in Malaya.

At the very least, threatening Palembang and making him retake it should be a chilling prospect for him. Especially if he wants to play towards the end. If you blow that up and he retakes it, but with Oil 0 (900), well...that's 2.5 years of turns to repair it, plus 900K supply. Actually worth repairing it after mid-42? Maybe not, or at least not all of it. It would put him down 1M supply either way.


Think of it like the end of Lord of the Rings... that big ol' nasty eye is all focused on the battle at the gate, and only when the ring's about to be dropped into the volcano does it flip around and panic.

[Cribtop]

Even we JFBs regret the horror of the escort over-targeting. It should happen sometimes when the sub gets detected setting up an attack and is forced to take a desperation shot down the throat, but it is clear the subs purposely target escorts. In my old AAR I often joked that PBs were the best ASW escorts for Japan. They were useless, but so often diverted torpedoes from their more valuable charges that they were a great tradeoff and freed up precious DDs.

[JocMeister]

I´ve been looking at what I have and I just don´t have enough armor to let them do it alone.

I´m thinking 4 IDs (3 US + Indian) + all the OZ, US and British armor. That will end up around 2000 AV. I will also have to bring a shed load of AA. It will hopefully guarantee success. He doesn´t have the forces close by to stop it as they are all either in SOPAC or Burma. He has to send shipping to pick them up, load them, ship them and then unload them. It could possibly take him as much as 3 weeks for emergency troops to arrive from Burma.

How long would it take for me to march to PB? Armor could reach it in week or so. How much for infantry? Also keep in mind that he may not be in a position to send the KB to drive my navy off. If he is sitting outside Fiji with a bunch of IDs to cover he can´t just abandon them.

I think it could actually work. [:)]

[Lokasenna]

it's 4 hexes from Benkoelen to PB, with major road over all 4.

Infantry moves at 30 miles/day in move mode on major road, or 15 miles/day in combat mode. Unsure of the amount in Reserve, but it's somewhere closer to the 30. At 30 per day, you're looking at almost 2 hexes every 3 days - so 7 days, plus maybe 2 days to "flip" the 2 bases in between. Unless your armor units have already done that...

I'd estimate it at 2 weeks for emergency troops, from anywhere, to arrive at Palembang.

I'd love to see that shock attack across the river into PB destroy all of the Oil. Wouldn't that be hairy...

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I´ve been looking at what I have and I just don´t have enough armor to let them do it alone.

I´m thinking 4 IDs (3 US + Indian) + all the OZ, US and British armor. That will end up around 2000 AV. I will also have to bring a shed load of AA. It will hopefully guarantee success. He doesn´t have the forces close by to stop it as they are all either in SOPAC or Burma. He has to send shipping to pick them up, load them, ship them and then unload them. It could possibly take him as much as 3 weeks for emergency troops to arrive from Burma.

How long would it take for me to march to PB? Armor could reach it in week or so. How much for infantry? Also keep in mind that he may not be in a position to send the KB to drive my navy off. If he is sitting outside Fiji with a bunch of IDs to cover he can´t just abandon them.

I think it could actually work. [:)]

I still think your plan is crazy. However, I think it can be modified to be *slightly* less crazy and still do what you want.

Rather than advancing on bases like Palembang directly, seek to establish bases on the open backside of Sumatra. Sumatra is so big that its hard for Japan to defend. But IMO that size works to your advantage because you can establish strategic depth to bring in units. The end goal of course is to establish 4E bases to pound Palembang for VPs in the end of 1942. All you have to do is land successfully then dig into the 3x terrain and try to hold off the Japanese in the front while building up airfields in the rear areas.

[Spidery]

pound Palembang for VPs in the end of 1942

No VPs for destroying industry outside of Japan.

Canoerebel's experience was there just aren't enough fighters to maintain a base on Sumatra in 1942. Maybe though with PDU off?

However, if Tom acts to oppose you that is going to escalate losses on both sides and that may be what is needed to avoid AV. If he doesn't oppose you he can get AV but busts the economy.

He may be able to fly a lot of troops into Palembang, depending what he has available, so you probably want some Lightnings that can do LRCAP from Benkoelen to interfere with that.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I´ve been looking at what I have and I just don´t have enough armor to let them do it alone.

I´m thinking 4 IDs (3 US + Indian) + all the OZ, US and British armor. That will end up around 2000 AV. I will also have to bring a shed load of AA. It will hopefully guarantee success. He doesn´t have the forces close by to stop it as they are all either in SOPAC or Burma. He has to send shipping to pick them up, load them, ship them and then unload them. It could possibly take him as much as 3 weeks for emergency troops to arrive from Burma.

How long would it take for me to march to PB? Armor could reach it in week or so. How much for infantry? Also keep in mind that he may not be in a position to send the KB to drive my navy off. If he is sitting outside Fiji with a bunch of IDs to cover he can´t just abandon them.

I think it could actually work. [:)]

I've been up and down and all around on those roads in my game with Mike. There's grey road to Lahat, RR to Prab., then the assault. If you want to walk, Loka's numbers look good. I'd also do a direct assault from off-map/CT. Move the Indian stuff out of Bombay due west to map edge, transit to CT, unload and reload after a rest. US forces can move EC to CT for free without ships if you don't mid slower, or fast on xAPs. Unless he has deep IO search and pickets he won't see you coming. Benkoelen as a landing.

If you want to be really hairy you could ram armor into Oosthaven, armor north to take the railhead at Prab, then phase unload your IDs in Strat, run up the RR and take the air hit for two days to mode convert. A little more risky for air from Batavia and associated AFs, but not much more than Benk. If the force is a write off anyway, shock and awe, man.

Do you have any recon on port sizes at Benk and Oost?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

I still think your plan is crazy. However, I think it can be modified to be *slightly* less crazy and still do what you want.

Rather than advancing on bases like Palembang directly, seek to establish bases on the open backside of Sumatra. Sumatra is so big that its hard for Japan to defend. But IMO that size works to your advantage because you can establish strategic depth to bring in units. The end goal of course is to establish 4E bases to pound Palembang for VPs in the end of 1942. All you have to do is land successfully then dig into the 3x terrain and try to hold off the Japanese in the front while building up airfields in the rear areas.

The western island bases are inside torpedo Nettie range from many bases on Malaysia. They are undeveloped and Jocke doesn't have any amphibs yet. I've gotten toe-holds on several by March 1943 in one of my games, but have taken losses on each run in to drop engineers or supply. Nothing is fast there until much later in the war.

[JocMeister]

Sorry for the lack of updates! I´m off to bed. Have to try and get some sleep after spending last night at the hospital.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Sorry for the lack of updates! I´m off to bed. Have to try and get some sleep after spending last night at the hospital.

Hospital? Hope everything is OK with you and your family.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Hospital? Hope everything is OK with you and your family.

My grandmother suffered a big heart attack 2 nights ago. [:(] She pulled through for now but being 91 years old its still very uncertain. [:(]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Sumatra OP[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

I know it sounds like a crazy idea and it is. [:)] But this could actually work. I would´t consider it if I thought it didn´t have any chance of success.

According to SIGINT all Tom has in PB is the 6th Tank RGT and a SNLF. No info on Benkoelen at allwhich could indicate its empty. The key for this OP is the massive Japanese investment in SOPAC. By all looks of it Tom is actually going to try and land on Nadi. That should keep his attention focused there for a while. [:)]

As long as he stays there he will need KB around for protection. I´m going to start rattle the sabers around Brisbane just to make sure he has he attention focused here. Allied fleet was spotted heading SW towards Pago Pago last turn. I had intended for them to go south of OZ to the IO but I´m going to turn them around and go off map instead. Tom will think they are heading for Pago Pago and this will force him to keep KB in the area.


------------------------
OOB (Draft)
------------------------
6 OZ Tank RGTs
7th + 254th Armored BDE
2 USMC Tank BTLs
4 US Tank BTLs
37th, 40th US ID.
3rd Marine ID
7 Indian ID.
6 AA units including the massive 23rd AA BDE.

Shipping will be the biggest problem. Most allied AP/AKs are heading towards Balboa together with most fast xAPs,