Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I´m pretty shaky each time I open the turn. I hate being this exposed.

You may not like it, but I think this is when the game is at its best. Back to the wall, desperate measures, nail biting, uncertain where the next shoe will drop. Great!

If your carrier plan doesn't work, just plan for another. You are going to get a golden chance, you simply need persistence and the luck you will manufacture.

I stopped by and wished your opponent well, but I saw the first couple of posts so no specific advice from me. But you know your day will come!

Can´t argue with that. Its times like these that make it impossible to stop playing this game. [:)]

I hope you are right on the CV raid. I´m mostly worried I´ll bump into his CVs by chance. Taking on the full KB with 4 under strength CVs with Buffs are not my idea of fun! [:D]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] Gig is up! [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Sadly I was spotted this turn. Loka hit the nail on the head. I have been trying to sneak in behind is lines and possible hit Rabaul or at least Noumea. While the CVs themselves wasn´t spotted the SCTF was and my DBs spotted two subs. Tom will no doubt know at least ONE CV is here.

Ah, well. Might not be completely in vain as this might slow him down a bit. He will now need to move search and tenders into place. Or use KB/parts of the KB for convoy duty.

[Lowpe]

Picket subs work!

It will cause him to rethink things...so it is not wasted.

[Lokasenna]

SBDs or TBFs on ASW work can be your greatest enemy when trying to sneak in. The few times I've done this, I turned them off and used float planes only...or even turn those off also and use creative routing to avoid likely sub spots.

If it weren't for that part, I'd say continue on a different vector with your stuff - he'd only have a sighting of a surface TF and then he may send out a SAG of his own. Which you could then butcher with your CVs.


EDIT: PS - I notice he hasn't taken any of the southern Gilberts yet. Any chance you can land some small units on there, including maybe a small engineer unit, and start building forts? Nasty surprise if/when he shows up.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

SBDs or TBFs on ASW work can be your greatest enemy when trying to sneak in. The few times I've done this, I turned them off and used float planes only...or even turn those off also and use creative routing to avoid likely sub spots.

If it weren't for that part, I'd say continue on a different vector with your stuff - he'd only have a sighting of a surface TF and then he may send out a SAG of his own. Which you could then butcher with your CVs.


EDIT: PS - I notice he hasn't taken any of the southern Gilberts yet. Any chance you can land some small units on there, including maybe a small engineer unit, and start building forts? Nasty surprise if/when he shows up.

Nah, Tom will know I´m certain. [:)] On this I can´t afford any unnecessary risks. Its a too big gamble for such uncertain gains. Tom won´t take any chances and any important shipping will just be diverted. I needed surprise to find anything valuable.

I would love to put troops in the Gilberts but I have no troops ATM. Especially no engineers! [:(]

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

SBDs or TBFs on ASW work can be your greatest enemy when trying to sneak in. The few times I've done this, I turned them off and used float planes only...or even turn those off also and use creative routing to avoid likely sub spots.

If it weren't for that part, I'd say continue on a different vector with your stuff - he'd only have a sighting of a surface TF and then he may send out a SAG of his own. Which you could then butcher with your CVs.


EDIT: PS - I notice he hasn't taken any of the southern Gilberts yet. Any chance you can land some small units on there, including maybe a small engineer unit, and start building forts? Nasty surprise if/when he shows up.

Do they even have to be on ASW to give you away? Won't air search also spot subs and announce to the opponent what type of plane spotted his subs?
In order to be guaranteed of avoiding this you would have to run totally blind....which no one in his right mind would be willing to do.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

SBDs or TBFs on ASW work can be your greatest enemy when trying to sneak in. The few times I've done this, I turned them off and used float planes only...or even turn those off also and use creative routing to avoid likely sub spots.

If it weren't for that part, I'd say continue on a different vector with your stuff - he'd only have a sighting of a surface TF and then he may send out a SAG of his own. Which you could then butcher with your CVs.


EDIT: PS - I notice he hasn't taken any of the southern Gilberts yet. Any chance you can land some small units on there, including maybe a small engineer unit, and start building forts? Nasty surprise if/when he shows up.

Do they even have to be on ASW to give you away? Won't air search also spot subs and announce to the opponent what type of plane spotted his subs?
In order to be guaranteed of avoiding this you would have to run totally blind....which no one in his right mind would be willing to do.

They will spot subs on search, yes, and give him notice... so you turn them off. 100% training on everything. The plus side to this is that you don't need any fighters to run escort, so if you DO get bushwhacked you can be running your Wildcats on 80% CAP and layered. Or you can run them on naval attack, no search, and standard setup on your escorts just in case MKB or partial KB shows up.

I've run totally blind several times. It requires careful movement, prior planning (with escape routes in mind), and watching for DL hits no your guys. Especially this early - Japan has weak naval search until at least mid-42.

Not running totally blind has blown the surprise at no appreciable benefit to myself for at least two of my ops between my 3 games so far.

But it definitely can be done. And should be done in the proper circumstances. IMO Jocke was presented with reasonable circumstances here for trying:

1) Known partial or full KB presence far away to the south
2) Still early in 1942, so IJNAF search is still mediocre and IJAAF search is nonexistent
3) Reasonable and valuable target at Rabaul - he's got to be running these ops from somewhere and Rabaul is the most likely place.

The only unknown, from our point of view, is MrKane's sub deployments. We know now that two were in the area of his CVs, but were they transiting or patrolling there? We can't know...even still, with a proper number of escorts (admittedly very hard in the early days) the risk to your major combat ships from subs can be minimized. And if he gets a sub attack on you, well...your cover is blown, time to melt away.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

SBDs or TBFs on ASW work can be your greatest enemy when trying to sneak in. The few times I've done this, I turned them off and used float planes only...or even turn those off also and use creative routing to avoid likely sub spots.

If it weren't for that part, I'd say continue on a different vector with your stuff - he'd only have a sighting of a surface TF and then he may send out a SAG of his own. Which you could then butcher with your CVs.


EDIT: PS - I notice he hasn't taken any of the southern Gilberts yet. Any chance you can land some small units on there, including maybe a small engineer unit, and start building forts? Nasty surprise if/when he shows up.

Nah, Tom will know I´m certain. [:)] On this I can´t afford any unnecessary risks. Its a too big gamble for such uncertain gains. Tom won´t take any chances and any important shipping will just be diverted. I needed surprise to find anything valuable.

I would love to put troops in the Gilberts but I have no troops ATM. Especially no engineers! [:(]

Sad [:(]. Keep in mind that SSTs can move any unit, not just paratroopers, that will fit onto the sub. They can unload squad-type devices and I think maybe even some guns. I've used them to stealthily transport engineers before. Very useful.

[CaptBeefheart]

Too bad your raid was detected. Good luck handling the invasion of OZ. I've been playing Ironman Nasty vs. the AI and there is so very little to protect Oz with in February 42.

Sending some happy thoughts your way (I had this last night for the first time; a buddy's wife sent a care package full of Michigan beer):

[Mac Linehan]

Original:

JocMeister -
Scenario 28 Aircraft Changes
---------------------------------------
So I was glancing through the models and I noticed some things differ from stock. Is this the changes Symon did?

From what I found so far the Jack and Georges seems to have been raised a lot in their top speed while the Corsair has been slowed down a bit. Looks like MVR have been changed a lot throughout the board too. Very interesting stuff! Is there a list somewhere where all the changes are listed? Looks like I need to relearn the airwar!

End Quote

Joc -

This is succinct brief from JWE (Symon) pertaining to DBB aircraft data changes:

RE: Feedback - new DBB air data - 7/7/2014 1:31:08 PM JWE
Things probably are not happening for the reasons you are thinking. Both sides lost max altitude, but allies lost more proportionately, and P-38J a lot more. IJ planes have a bit more speed than before.

P-47D atiltude is 37200, was 42000: speed is same as it ever was : - 4800’
P-38J altitude is 34550, was 44000: speed is same as it ever was: - 9450’
Spit VIII altitude is 36770, was 41500: speed is same as it ever was: - 4730’

J2M2 altitude is 32700, was 37400: speed 397, was 371: - 4700’, +26mph
Ki-84a altitude is 31500, was 34400: speed 406, was 392: - 2900’, +14mph
N1K2-J altitude is 31300, was 35300: speed 397, was 369: - 4000’, +28mph

Later Allied planes ALWAYS had a max altitude advantage. It used to be much bigger. It’s now somewhat smaller. Later Allied planes ALWAYS had a speed advantage. It used to be much bigger. It’s now somewhat smaller.

The model reduces some of the disparity and reduces the effects of the disparities. It does not eliminate them. The bounce still exists. Using the old model you would have lost 8 -10 (or more), instead of 4, 6, or 7.


Joc, I am only on page two or your AAR. Hope that the above helps.

Will follow your AAR with interest, Sir!

Mac

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

SBDs or TBFs on ASW work can be your greatest enemy when trying to sneak in. The few times I've done this, I turned them off and used float planes only...or even turn those off also and use creative routing to avoid likely sub spots.

If it weren't for that part, I'd say continue on a different vector with your stuff - he'd only have a sighting of a surface TF and then he may send out a SAG of his own. Which you could then butcher with your CVs.


EDIT: PS - I notice he hasn't taken any of the southern Gilberts yet. Any chance you can land some small units on there, including maybe a small engineer unit, and start building forts? Nasty surprise if/when he shows up.


Do they even have to be on ASW to give you away? Won't air search also spot subs and announce to the opponent what type of plane spotted his subs?
In order to be guaranteed of avoiding this you would have to run totally blind....which no one in his right mind would be willing to do.


They will spot subs on search, yes, and give him notice... so you turn them off. 100% training on everything. The plus side to this is that you don't need any fighters to run escort, so if you DO get bushwhacked you can be running your Wildcats on 80% CAP and layered. Or you can run them on naval attack, no search, and standard setup on your escorts just in case MKB or partial KB shows up.

I've run totally blind several times. It requires careful movement, prior planning (with escape routes in mind), and watching for DL hits no your guys. Especially this early - Japan has weak naval search until at least mid-42.

Not running totally blind has blown the surprise at no appreciable benefit to myself for at least two of my ops between my 3 games so far.

But it definitely can be done. And should be done in the proper circumstances. IMO Jocke was presented with reasonable circumstances here for trying:

1) Known partial or full KB presence far away to the south
2) Still early in 1942, so IJNAF search is still mediocre and IJAAF search is nonexistent
3) Reasonable and valuable target at Rabaul - he's got to be running these ops from somewhere and Rabaul is the most likely place.

The only unknown, from our point of view, is MrKane's sub deployments. We know now that two were in the area of his CVs, but were they transiting or patrolling there? We can't know...even still, with a proper number of escorts (admittedly very hard in the early days) the risk to your major combat ships from subs can be minimized. And if he gets a sub attack on you, well...your cover is blown, time to melt away.

I agree with all that. Problem is the first point. KB has now been out of sight for 4 days straight. It hasn´t reappeared outside OZ again. And he is not in Noumea (confirmed by NavS). So he is on the move somewhere. Most likely he massing for another push. And the most likely place for that is indeed Rabaul. If that is true its also very likely that KB is heading that way.

Call me chicken but I don´t dare the risk. [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

Thanks! Sadly my stock has declined over the vacation and I had to resort to Swedish lager last night. The horror!

ORIGINAL: Mac Linehan

Hello Mac. Thank you for the info and welcome aboard! [:)]

[Quixote]

Call me chicken but I don´t dare the risk. [:)]

At this stage of the game, I won't call you a chicken. I might call you smart, though. (Maybe not the "fun" choice, but probably the right choice. Good call, Joc.)

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Quixote

At this stage of the game, I won't call you a chicken. I might call you smart, though. (Maybe not the "fun" choice, but probably the right choice. Good call, Joc.)

Thank you! [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] February 13th -42 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Mostly bad during the last 4 days...foul mood today as someone smashed the window on my work car during the night. Pricks! [:@]

------------------------
China
------------------------
Against all odds the roadblock south of Sian manage to retreat in good order. Ankang is liberated and the troops race south in order to establish a new roadblock North of the other one which will crumble any day now.

A large Japanese force appear out of nowhere east of Lanchow. I knew they were coming. But not 2 full IDs with supporting artillery. How he can keep these guys in supply is a mystery. But they manage to cross the river with only small losses. Lanchow is now doomed.

Ground combat at 82,34 (near Lanchow)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 36317 troops, 250 guns, 189 vehicles, Assault Value = 967

Defending force 19871 troops, 118 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 431

Japanese adjusted assault: 834

Allied adjusted defense: 455

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2057 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 132 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 25 disabled

Allied ground losses:
802 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 63 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 13 (1 destroyed, 12 disabled)

Assaulting units:
27th Division
36th Division
26th Recon Regiment
Mongol Garrison Army
12th Army
1st Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
13th Chinese Corps
4th Chinese Cavalry Corps
8th War Area

He is also making the first incursions towards the Changsha basin using armored units. He is doing so without the use of roads...I guess the Japanese tankettes have terrain going capabilities the allies can only dream of! [8|]

Been trying for two weeks to ambush Toms bombers at Sian. But he switches them around each turn. Sadly last turn two P40s got stuck at Sian and Tom hit the AF the following day damaging one of them. So now he knows I´m there...another opportunity lost.

------------------------
DEI
------------------------
Batavia falls on the 2nd try. With the amount of troops here there were never any hope of delay. I did a stupid mistake here that wasn´t the first time. Started doing the turn, saved, went and ate breakfast. Went back and started on the turn again...but the wrong file. So all Air Groups at Batavia was destroyed...

Ground combat at Batavia (49,98)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 87830 troops, 984 guns, 315 vehicles, Assault Value = 2450

Defending force 17736 troops, 164 guns, 77 vehicles, Assault Value = 242

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 1320

Allied adjusted defense: 251

Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Batavia !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
139WH-3: 15 destroyed
B-339D: 1 destroyed
L-212: 6 destroyed
Do-24K-1: 1 destroyed
PBY-5 Catalina: 2 destroyed
Hudson I: 2 destroyed
Vildebeest III: 9 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 3 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1029 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 76 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled

Allied ground losses:
8208 casualties reported
Squads: 141 destroyed, 63 disabled
Non Combat: 394 destroyed, 66 disabled
Engineers: 16 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 81 (72 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 60 (60 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 12
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
4th Division
56th Division
5th Division
18th Division
2nd Division
5th Mortar Battalion
3rd Mortar Battalion
1st RF Gun Battalion
25th Army
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
1st KNIL Regiment
1st KNIL Landstorm Battalion
2nd KNIL Regiment
1st Regt Cavalerie
4th KNIL Landstorm Battalion
ABDA
KNI Leger
Batavia KM Base Force
1st KNIL AA Battalion
KNI Zeemacht
Batavia Defenses
ML-KNIL
6th Avn Sup Afd

Now the big question is: Where to next? He has to send something to Burma. At least 2-3 IDs or he will risk an early allied counter attack in mid 42. He also have done nothing in CENTPAC or NOPAC... Western and Northern OZ is also untouched...

------------------------
Burma
------------------------
A Japanese units moves cross country to cut off Rangoon. I get there first to take ownership of the hex and block him in. Not sure what he has here and I don´t want to reveal what I have. Seems the feeling is mutual as we both sit there.

Meanwile a Japanese RGT has reached the central plains. I have nothing to stop this with. I was toying with the idea of sending some troops to Burma. But with 5 Japanese IDs freed up on Java I scrapped the idea for now. At least until I know how much he will send there.

I managed to sneak in a bombardment TF unnoticed. Nothing that will change the war but it will force him to divert stuff here that he may want somewhere else.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Feb 10, 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Moulmein at 55,55

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ic Oscar: 27 damaged
Ki-43-Ic Oscar: 3 destroyed on ground
Ki-46-II Dinah: 6 damaged
Ki-15-II Babs: 10 damaged
Ki-15-II Babs: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied Ships
CA Exeter
CA Cornwall

Japanese ground losses:
761 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 46 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)
Vehicles lost 7 (2 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Airbase hits 21
Airbase supply hits 18
Runway hits 59
Port hits 1

Walrus II acting as spotter for CA Exeter
CA Exeter firing at Moulmein
CA Cornwall firing at Moulmein

We also have a tussle between some Oscars and the AVG over Rangoon. Considering my pilots where utter garbage I can´t complain as 8 P40s are shot down for 6 Oscars. The AVG was there to provide CAP over the Bombardment TF while refueling.

------------------------
OZ
------------------------
Big guns have started hitting Brisbane.

4 BBs and 8 CAs are taking turns bombarding. Not without loss though.

TF 135 encounters mine field at Brisbane (96,160)

Japanese Ships
DD Amatsukaze, Mine hits 1
DD Isokaze, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Interestingly enough only the fortress seems to take damage and disruption from the bombardments. I´ve started moving out from Brisbane. I hope this will entice Tom to attack. May cause him some damage if he does.

Another big, big sweep hits the empty skies over Sydney.

------------------------
KB/Allied CVs
------------------------
KB is unspotted for the 8th day in a row. Allied CVs are moving towards the line island. They have a new mission to attend to...

------------------------
Next Japanese move
------------------------
I´m 90% sure he will hit Suva/Nadi next. Japanese subs flooded the area 3 turns ago. My bet is that the KB moved to Rabaul to escort troops for a landing at Nadi. The question is if this will be the last target in SOPAC or only a stepping stone.

Screens coming up during the day!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"] Making the right call... [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

...sometimes you do. Had I not moved back due east the very same turn I did I would now have 4 CVs on the bottom of the Pacific together with 6 CAs, 4 CLs and 18 DDs...

Phew... [&o]

[BBfanboy]

The fighter and bomber count is pretty low for a TF with 3 CV and a CVL. One or the other is not correct.
I would judge that TF to be a mini KB and some of the sighted CVs to be CAs or CLs. Still, with KB MIA for so long
you cannot chance a strike at that one since you don't even have all your wildcats yet, and KB often goes hunting near
MKB anyway. Allied players have to swallow their helpless feelings in early 1942 with the thought of sweet toys in the next
many months...

Congrats on your good call!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"] Making the right call... [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

...sometimes you do. Had I not moved back due east the very same turn I did I would now have 4 CVs on the bottom of the Pacific together with 6 CAs, 4 CLs and 18 DDs...

Phew... [&o]

Yes. You definitely made the right decision here. Back into hiding.

I've found it much harder to train up my air groups for the Allies as well in the early days. The KB pilots are 70-80exp/70-75skill, and there are a lot of extras in the IJN LBA groups to supplement them, while the US counterparts begin around 60-70exp/55-65 skill for the most part, aren't completely filled out, and none of the LBA groups have anything decent. So the final 1/3 of the group has to start from very mediocre pilots while for the top 2/3 it's tough to get them up to higher levels once their exp is over 55, so it's taken me around six months to get really expert pilots in the CV groups.

It's been an eye-opener to play the Allies for sure. [:)]

Sorry about the car. That sucks.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The fighter and bomber count is pretty low for a TF with 3 CV and a CVL. One or the other is not correct.
I would judge that TF to be a mini KB and some of the sighted CVs to be CAs or CLs. Still, with KB MIA for so long
you cannot chance a strike at that one since you don't even have all your wildcats yet, and KB often goes hunting near
MKB anyway. Allied players have to swallow their helpless feelings in early 1942 with the thought of sweet toys in the next
many months...

Congrats on your good call!

I think its just poor DL. I´m 97% percent sure Tom pieced the puzzle together and went CV hunting when I was spotted. I´ll do what Erik says and run back into hiding. There will be other opportunities I´m sure. [:)]

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The fighter and bomber count is pretty low for a TF with 3 CV and a CVL. One or the other is not correct.
I would judge that TF to be a mini KB and some of the sighted CVs to be CAs or CLs. Still, with KB MIA for so long
you cannot chance a strike at that one since you don't even have all your wildcats yet, and KB often goes hunting near
MKB anyway. Allied players have to swallow their helpless feelings in early 1942 with the thought of sweet toys in the next
many months...

Congrats on your good call!

I think its just poor DL. I´m 97% percent sure Tom pieced the puzzle together and went CV hunting when I was spotted. I´ll do what Erik says and run back into hiding. There will be other opportunities I´m sure. [:)]

This game and fishing have a lot in common. Except the fish can drag you out of the boat and sure make a mess of you in game